House Dems Showing Record Unity
For all the talk from pundits of Dem disunity on Iraq, a study by the Washington Post's Paul Kane of the House Democrats shows them maintaining a record level of unity in their newfound majority. The average House Dem votes with the caucus 94% of the time. Compared to the previous record level of partisan cohesiveness — the first two years of the George W. Bush Administration — the GOP majority at the time showed an average party-line voting record of just 90.4%.

Obama Missing Iowa Dem Event Today
Barack Obama will be the only leading Democrat absent from tonight's Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame banquet, which will be attended by 1,000 activists from around the state. Instead, he is finishing up a tour of fundraisers in California and Washington state.

John Edwards, The National Intelligence Estimate, And His Vote For The War
Edwards again says he did read the classified NIE. We have an ongoing and bracing discussion of the significance of his vote to authorize the war, and his repudiation of it, right here.

Romney: Immigration Bill "Not Technically Amnesty"
Mitt Romney, who has ridiculed the immigration bill as being amnesty, told the Sioux City Journal that the word amnesty "is such a loaded term and we probably ought to get a lawyer to say. And I understand that in some respects this is not technically amnesty, because it does come with some penalty." Nevertheless, Romney said the bill has "key features of amnesty" and "Whether or not that is technically amnesty, it is amnesty-lite, amnesty in form, and it is something which I don't support."

All The Dems Back Some Federal Recognition Of Gay Marriage
Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich all support federal recognition of same-sex marriages in states where it might be permitted — in other words, they would support the repeal of a key portion of the 1996 Defense Of Marriage Act — according to their answers to a questionnaire from the Human Rights Campaign. Only Dennis Kucinich supports the direct legislation of gay marriage rights under federal law.

McCain Distances Himself From Bush's Rhetoric On Immigration Bill
Speaking in Iowa yesterday, John McCain put some distance between himself and the President, who had declared that opponents of the immigration bill "don't want to do what's right for America." "The President, and all of us, feel frustrated sometimes by the criticism and the level of the dialogue," McCain said. "I respect the views of those who disagree with us. I don’t question anyone’s patriotism or love of this country. I wish we could lift up the level of discourse and dialogue."

Romney Visits Thompson Country Tonight
Mitt Romney will be keynoting a Tennessee Republican Party dinner tonight, an event that was scheduled before the emergence as a candidate of the state GOP's favorite son, Fred Thompson. "I think people will give (Romney) good Southern hospitality and a good Southern welcome," said former GOP Congressman Van Hilleary, who was the 2002 Republican nominee for Governor. Romney may certainly get a positive welcome, but it's not certain he'll actually get many votes or donations — many of those in attendance, including Hilleary, are supporting Thompson. Thompson, for his part, will be speaking to a GOP event in Virginia.

Richardson Selling Stock In Oil Company
Bill Richardson is selling his stock and options in oil refining firm Valero. Richardson's holding, valued between $100,001 to $250,000 in stock and $250,001 and $500,000 in options, was one of the many contentious issues the candidate had to deal with in his Meet The Press interview last Sunday, given his calls for energy independence.

Hillary Endorsed By Key Iowa Dem Jerry Crawford
Hillary Clinton has picked up the support of Jerry Crawford, an attorney from Des Moines who has served as the state campaign chairman in the Iowa caucus for the last five Democratic nominees for President — including, of course, Bill Clinton in 1992.

California Primary Ballot Could Feature Non-Binding Iraq Question
The Democratic-majority State Legislature in California is expected to approve a bill to place on the February 5 primary ballot a resolution calling for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. It is not known whether Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger would sign or veto the bill, given his record of support for direct democracy versus his GOP partisanship. Some Republicans see an ulterior motive for the bill: It could drive turnout of Democratic constituencies who would be expected to vote in favor of a separate question, to extend the state's severe term limits on state legislators.

House Dems Showing Record Unity
For all the talk from pundits of Dem disunity on Iraq, a study by the Washington Post's Paul Kane of the House Democrats shows them maintaining a record level of unity in their newfound majority. The average House Dem votes with the caucus 94% of the time. Compared to the previous record level of partisan cohesiveness — the first two years of the George W. Bush Administration — the GOP majority at the time showed an average party-line voting record of just 90.4%.

Obama Missing Iowa Dem Event Today
Barack Obama will be the only leading Democrat absent from tonight's Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame banquet, which will be attended by 1,000 activists from around the state. Instead, he is finishing up a tour of fundraisers in California and Washington state.

John Edwards, The National Intelligence Estimate, And His Vote For The War
Edwards again says he did read the classified NIE. We have an ongoing discussion of the significance of his vote to authorize the war, and his repudiation of it, right here.

Romney: Immigration Bill "Not Technically Amnesty"
Mitt Romney, who has ridiculed the immigration bill as being amnesty, told the Sioux City Journal that the word amnesty "is such a loaded term and we probably ought to get a lawyer to say. And I understand that in some respects this is not technically amnesty, because it does come with some penalty." Nevertheless, Romney said the bill has "key features of amnesty" and "Whether or not that is technically amnesty, it is amnesty-lite, amnesty in form, and it is something which I don't support."

All The Dems Back Some Federal Recognition Of Gay Marriage
Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich all support federal recognition of same-sex marriages in states where it might be permitted — in other words, they would support the repeal of a key portion of the 1996 Defense Of Marriage Act — according to their answers to a questionnaire from the Human Rights Campaign. Only Dennis Kucinich supports the direct legislation of gay marriage rights under federal law.

McCain Distances Himself From Bush's Rhetoric On Immigration Bill
Speaking in Iowa yesterday, John McCain put some distance between himself and the President, who had declared that opponents of the immigration bill "don't want to do what's right for America." "The President, and all of us, feel frustrated sometimes by the criticism and the level of the dialogue," McCain said. "I respect the views of those who disagree with us. I don’t question anyone’s patriotism or love of this country. I wish we could lift up the level of discourse and dialogue."

Romney Visits Thompson Country Tonight
Mitt Romney will be keynoting a Tennessee Republican Party dinner tonight, an event that was scheduled before the emergence as a candidate of the state GOP's favorite son, Fred Thompson. "I think people will give (Romney) good Southern hospitality and a good Southern welcome," said former GOP Congressman Van Hilleary, who was the 2002 Republican nominee for Governor. Romney may certainly get a positive welcome, but it's not certain he'll actually get many votes or donations — many of those in attendance, including Hilleary, are supporting Thompson. Thompson, for his part, will be speaking to a GOP event in Virginia.

Richardson Selling Stock In Oil Company
Bill Richardson is selling his stock and options in oil refining firm Valero. Richardson's holding, valued between $100,001 to $250,000 in stock and $250,001 and $500,000 in options, was one of the many contentious issues the candidate had to deal with in his Meet The Press interview last Sunday, given his calls for energy independence.

Hillary Endorsed By Key Iowa Dem Jerry Crawford
Hillary Clinton has picked up the support of Jerry Crawford, an attorney from Des Moines who has served as the state campaign chairman in the Iowa caucus for the last five Democratic nominees for President — including, of course, Bill Clinton in 1992.

California Primary Ballot Could Feature Non-Binding Iraq Question
The Democratic-majority State Legislature in California is expected to approve a bill to place on the February 5 primary ballot a resolution calling for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. It is not known whether Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger would sign or veto the bill, given his record of support for direct democracy versus his GOP partisanship. Some Republicans see an ulterior motive for the bill: It could drive turnout of Democratic constituencies who would be expected to vote in favor of a separate question, to extend the state's severe term limits on state legislators.

Okay, we're not wholly sure what to make of this. While we completely admire John Edwards' repudiation of his vote to authorize the Iraq War, we're uncertain about the Edwards campaign's handling of an issue related to it.

Specifically: We've just discovered another example of John Edwards saying -- in apparent contradiction of his spokesman -- that he read the classified pre-war version of the National Intelligence Estimate containing serious caveats about Iraq's weapons programs and the need for war.

As you may have heard, Edwards took some heat yesterday for saying at a Google town hall on Wednesday night that he had read the classified version of the estimate.

That seemed to contradict an Edwards spokesman who just a few days earlier had said he hadn't read the classified NIE.

In addressing why Edwards had told the Google town hall that he'd read the document, his spokesman said that he'd misunderstood the question and that he'd always said he'd only read the declassified version, not the classified one.

But here's a transcript of Edwards on Meet the Press on February 4, 2007, where he again seems to be saying the opposite:

MR. RUSSERT: General Scowcroft, former President Bush’s national security advisor. And the National Intelligence Estimate that was given to you and now made public had some real caveats, and this is one of them. “ The activities we have detected do not ... add up to a compelling case that Iraq is currently pursuing what INR [the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research] would consider to be an integrated and comprehensive approach to acquire nuclear weapons.” Do you remember seeing that?

SEN. EDWARDS: Mm-hmm, I did see it. I mean, I, I think it was -- there were serious questions about whether -- again, we’re looking back. Now we know none of this was true. But, at the time, there were serious questions about any effort to obtain nuclear weapons, which is what that statement just was. All of us believed there was no question that he had chemical and biological weapons, and there was at least some scattered evidence that he was making an effort to get nuclear weapons.

The caveat Russert cited is in the originally classified version, i.e., the version Edwards' spokesperson said he hadn't read. But here he seems to be saying he had read it -- or at the very least had been briefed on the key caveats therein. The Edwards campaign declined to comment when we contacted them about this.

Let's be clear: In some key ways the dust-up over who read the whole NIE is a distraction and a side-issue.

Read more »

Cato Institute: The Voters Are Ignorant And Proud Of It
Bryan Caplan at the Cato Institute has a fascinating new essay out, arguing what many of us have suspected for quite some time: The voters are stupid. "I offer an alternative story of how and why democracy fails," Caplan writes. "The central idea is that voters are worse than ignorant; they are, in a word, irrational — and they vote accordingly. Despite their lack of knowledge, voters are not humble agnostics; instead, they confidently embrace a long list of misconceptions."

Obama To Union: I'll Walk A Picket Line With You
Barack Obama made a bold promise to the Culinary Workers Union in Las Vegas: If the hotel workers can't get a contract, he's ready to march on the picket line with them. "All we’re asking for is make sure the burdens and benefits of this new global economy are spread evenly across the board," he said. "That if profits are going up for everybody, then those profits are shared with workers. If CEO’s have free healthcare, then workers get free healthcare."

Poll: Voters Think Rudy And Hillary Have Best Chance Of Winning
A new Gallup poll finds that more respondents think Rudy and Hillary are the candidates with the best chance of winning the nomination of their respective parties. Eighty-three percent of Dems think Hillary has the best shot at the Dem nomination, while 76% of GOPers think Rudy has the best chance at the Republican nomination.

Pelosi: Bush Still Doesn't Get It On Global Warming
Speaker Nancy Pelosi lambasted what she called the Bush Administration weak new position on global warming: "Yes, he says now he believes that global warming is happening and he accepts the science that it is ... But if that were so, if he truly understood that, he could not have come up with a proposal that is 'aspirational.'" Pelosi is calling upon the House to pass legislation to restrict carbon emissions.

Obama Campaign Divests Of Rezko-Connected Money
Barack Obama's campaign has announced that it will donate to charity $5,000 that the Senator received in his 2004 campaign from Ali Ata, a former Illinois state official who has been indicted for helping to secure a $10 million loan for Antoin Rezko, money later used in a fraudulent scam. Obama's campaign has previously donated $11,500 personally donated by Rezko, a longtime patron of Illinois Democrats who is now under federal indictment. Rezko had helped to raise millions of dollars for Obama over the course of his the Senator's in Illinois.

Hedge Fund Money Going To The Dems
A study by Reuters shows that managers at the top hedge funds donated $1.1 million to Presidential candidates in the first quarter, and an astonishing 75% went to Democrats — a possible sign of the party's momentum. Chris Dodd received the most money, $347,300, followed by John Edwards $190,650, then Hillary Clinton at $164,600.

U. of Missouri Restarting Search For New Head — Could Trigger House Special Election
The University of Missouri is restarting its search for a new president from scratch after their reported top choice, businessman Terry Sutter, abruptly withdrew from consideration. Governor Matt Blunt (R) has now endorsed the candidacy of GOP Congressman Kenny Hulshof, who has also been angling for the job. If the university's curators ultimately pick Hulshof, his resignation from the House would trigger a potentially competitive — albeit still GOP-leaning — special election.

Courtesy of departing Bush adviser Dan Bartlett, here it is -- the perfect expression of the Bush White House's all-consuming up-is-downism:

“It’s been a roller coaster that seems always to go up,” Bartlett said of his White House years.

Yep -- just perfect.

(H/T Wonkette.)

CNN:

Thompson filed papers Friday with the Tennessee Secretary of State creating "Friends of Fred Thompson," a state-based corporation that will raise and spend money to gauge interest and support for a possible Thompson White House bid.

Under federal law, prospective candidates are allowed to raise and spend money to "test the waters" for a bid for federal office without having to create a federal campaign committee. However, once a candidate declares his or her candidacy, the candidate must then go back and report any money raised and spent during the "testing the waters" phase. These organizations have been called both "exploratory" and "testing the waters" committees.

The advantage to Thompson in creating a state committee is that it allows him to begin raising money for a possible presidential campaign, but exempts him from having to file a detailed campaign finance report for this quarter.

Thompson probably wouldn't want to file a report this quarter, since the tally would certainly be much lower than those of his competitors. After all, he only has the month of June this quarter, while the others been busy raising cash for the last two months.

So Rudy Giuliani has just lost his internet guru, Patrick Ruffini.

Ruffini, a contributor to Town Hall, was a key Rudy employee and is a big deal among right-wing bloggers. He has "considerable street cred with the conservative blog set," according to The Politico's Jonathan Martin, and he previously oversaw Internet strategies for Bush's reelection and for the Republican National Committee. Ruffini has now left his job as Rudy's Internet adviser, and the split looks to be amicable.

But the main reason we bring this up is because Ruffini gives us a chance to offer an entry for the vast and growing Atrios Iraq Accountability Database, which is devoted to storing an ever-more-voluminous number of wrong public predictions about the Iraq War.

So here's our entry. Ruffini, writing for Town Hall back in February:

Shhhh...The Surge Is Working

A gloomy haze has settled over the nation's prosecution of the War on Terror as of late. It seems like we can only watch helplessly as Nancy Pelosi and Jack Murtha size up new angles of attack for undermining the war effort. The media is chomping at the bit to tell the story of an America, bruised and humbled and exhausted, heading for the exits in Iraq.

But something interesting is happening on the way to the "new direction." Early indications are that the troop surge into Baghdad is working...The strategy that Congress is busy denouncing is proving to be our best hope for victory....

This turnaround in Baghdad is confirmed at home by the media's near-deafening silence.

Shhh...that was three months before the violence of May, which killed at least 122 U.S. troops and was the worst month for U.S. troops in over two years.

Here's a fun addendum to the big story today about how the Republican National Committee laid off a bunch of phone-bank fundraisers because its facing a grass-roots rebellion from donors unhappy with President Bush's immigration policy.

It appears the immigration backlash is wreaking havoc of sorts at another of the GOP's committees, too: The National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Yesterday, the NRSC's blog boasted what looked like an innocent enough experiment: It offered readers a chance to debate immigration on line by creating "an online dialogue focused on the immigration reform legislation."

The handlers of the NRSC's blog posted two videos of NRSC chief Mitch McConnell defending two key aspects of the immigration legislation. Then -- under a heading that read "disagree" -- it also posted two forceful attacks on McConnell's arguments, one from leading GOP Senator Jim De Mint, a move that was inexplicable because it highlighted just how deep the divisions are in the GOP Senate caucus over the issue.

That's a no-no, of course, because the whole purpose of a committee like the NRSC is to highlight the successes and unity of the caucus, not to spotlight divisions and infighting. And the screw-up drew howls of derision from Democratic insiders who

As Ben Smith notes, this is a wonderful quote from today's New York Times piece on Barack Obama's style of basketball playing:

Mr. Obama is left-handed, and his signature move is to fake right and veer left, surprising players used to guarding right-handed competitors.

The obvious double meaning -- that Obama fakes right and veers left politically, too -- is fun enough.

But there's another entertaining layer of meaning here that makes this even more fun. Who are the "players" being "surprised" by Obama's moves? Easy: Centrist Dems, Beltway pundits, all-around D.C. insider types. In other words, the folks who are used to "guarding right-handed competitors" -- that is, taking their cues from Republicans and letting the GOP frame the D.C. narrative -- and hence are getting caught off guard by the astounding success of an unabashed liberal.

Hey, it's Friday.

A great catch by Steve Benen. Check out Rudy's latest attack on Hillary, this one over her call for tax hikes on the rich:

In a potential preview of next fall's presidential contest, Mr. Giuliani, who is seen as the front-runner for the Republican nomination, directly attacked the leading Democratic candidate, Mrs. Clinton, over a speech she gave Tuesday in New Hampshire bemoaning the return of "robber barons" and promising to pursue "shared prosperity" by increasing taxes on Americans making more than $200,000 a year.

"This would be an astounding, staggering tax increase," Mr. Giuliani told reporters yesterday after a visit to a restaurant on the edge of California's Silicon Valley. "She wants to go back to the 1990s. … It would hurt our economy. It would hurt this area dramatically."

Back to the nineties? What a truly awful prospect.

As Benen notes, attacking someone for wanting to restore the peace and prosperity of that decade -- in Silicon Valley or anywhere else -- perhaps isn't the soundest political strategy.

After all, the President who presided over that era enjoys a favorability rating that is nearly twice that of the current White House occupant. Large majorities see that President's marriage to Hillary as an asset, to boot. Dems can only hope that Rudy keeps saying this.

Another entry for the Jeff Gerth chronicles. Picking up on this, today's New York Post reports:

June 1, 2007 -- The New York Times, which is usually so scrupulous, failed to alert its readers to a conflict of interest regarding Jeff Gerth, the co-author of "Her Way: The Hopes and Ambitions of Hillary Rodham Clinton." In an excerpt from the book in the Times' upcoming Sunday magazine, Gerth is described as "a former investigative reporter for The Times." It doesn't mention that Gerth is married to Janice O'Connell, a top foreign policy aide to one of Clinton's Democratic presidential primary opponents, Sen. Chris Dodd.

No question, The Times screwed up here. The real question, though, is this: Why didn't Gerth insist that the paper include a disclaimer telling readers that his wife works for one of Hillary's rivals?

Boehner Working On "Branding" For The GOP's Image
Leading a party that is taking a beating in the polls, House Minority Leader John Boehner is forming a group of allies to work on "branding" for the GOP — finding a way to polish and even change their image. "We're trying to look into our conscience and define ourselves, and as we define ourselves, decide how we can best communicate that to the rest of the world," said Rep. John Carter (R-TX). "In other words, what are Republicans?"

RNC Fired Phone Fundraisers
The Washington Times reports that the Republican National Committee fired all of its 65 telephone solicitors because their operation had a 40 percent drop in contributions and would have required a substantial new investment in equipment. "Every donor in the 50 states we reached has been angry, especially in the last month and a half, and for 99 percent of them immigration is the No. 1 issue," said one former employee. – T. W. Farnam

Edwards Camp Retracts: He Did Not Read Full Classified NIE
The John Edwards campaign has retracted Edwards' answer to a question at his recent town hall at Google headquarters, in which he said he'd read the classified National Intelligence Intelligence. A spokesman said Edwards misunderstood the question, pertaining to the classified portions of the NIE, and had simply read the unclassified report.

Another Top Bushie Leaves
White House Counselor Dan Bartlett has resigned, marking the loss of one of the President's longest-serving advisers.

Jeb Bush And Ken Mehlman: GOP Should Have Hispanics, Shouldn't Alienate Them
In a new column in the Wall St. Journal, Jeb Bush and Ken Mehlman argue that Hispanics, being social conservatives and overall pro-business, ought to be natural Republicans — but the GOP needs to stop alienating them by pushing the immigration issue. "Republicans have shown we can win Hispanic voters when we reach out," they write. "We've also seen what happens when Republicans adopt a different approach." Many in Jeb's organization have gone for Mitt Romney, but this could signal a possible split between the two over immigration.

Fired McCain Christian Outreach Aides: Campaign Had "A Contempt For Christians."
Two former aides to the John McCain campaign, who were brought on to do outreach to Christian conservatives, now say the campaign did not actively involve them or take any of their suggestions. "The way we were being treated it was as if we had leprosy," said former staffer Marlene Elwell. Their only real job: To gather church membership lists for the campaign.

Report: Bush Pounds Chest, Calls Iraq Occupation "Our Country's Destiny"
In what can only be a disturbing picture of American leadership if true, foreign affairs columnist Georgie Anne Geyer reports of President Bush, "Friends of his from Texas were shocked recently to find him nearly wild-eyed, thumping himself on the chest three times while he repeated 'I am the president!' He also made it clear he was setting Iraq up so his successor could not get out of 'our country's destiny.'"

Labor Divided On Illegal Immigration
The labor movement is reportedly split on the issue of the new immigration bill, and the issue of illegal immigration overall. The AFL-CIO has tended to view illegal immigrants as unwanted competitors in the job market, while SEIU and Unite Here are more welcoming.

Anti-Rudy Catholics Organizing On The Right
Conservative Catholics opposed to Rudy Giuliani's positions on abortion, gay rights and other issues have been working hard to organize against the candidate. "Rudy Giuliani is an unacceptable Republican nominee for President of the United States," declares the Michigan-based Conservative Declaration, which claims supporters in 30 states. "He is pro-abortion, pro-partial birth abortion, pro-registration of handguns, and pro-homosexual rights."

Fred Thompson Salutes Troops — In Anti-Identify Theft Firm's Radio Ad
Fred Thompson has done voice-work for a new ad campaign by LifeLock, a firm that offers services against identity theft. Oddly enough, the ad starts with a salute to America's troops, setting an All-American tone for the candidate in waiting, before proceeding to a promotion of the company's services.

FEC Fines Kerry-Edwards Campaign
A Federal Election Commission audit found that the Sen. John Kerry's (D-MA) 2004 presidential bid spent $1.4 million more than the $74.6 million it was allowed after accepting federal matching funds. The commission voted unanimously yesterday to fine Kerry the entire amount of overspending, but the decision is likely to be appealed and will almost certainly set off a partisan debate about how labor costs are apportioned. — T. W. Farnam

Republican Declares Against Freshman Dem Klein
Retired Army Lt. Colonel Allen West has declared his candidacy against freshman Congressman Ron Klein (D-FL), who defeated long-time GOP Congressman Clay Shaw last year. "Voters in next year’s elections will be offered two distinct visions for the future of our country: strength or weakness, resolve or indecision, security or vulnerability," West said in his announcement. Former Navy pilot Mark Flagg is also currently running, and other local GOP'ers may join the race.

GOP Congressman Wicker Spills The Beans On Military Contracts
The office of Rep. Roger Wicker (R-MS) issued a press release this morning touting a $623 million contract from the Pentagon for a firm in his district. The problem, according to Roll Call, is that the Pentagon has a policy of announcing contracts at 5 p.m., after the stock market closes, so as not to disrupt trading. Wicker, the paper says, "may have moved the stock market today, whether he meant to or not." A spokesman for Wicker said their office was not told about the policy when the contract was awarded.

PETA Asks For Vegetarian Tax Break, Citing Global Warming
People for Ethical Treatment of Animals wrote a letter to Democratic Congressional leaders stating that vegetarians create less greenhouse gas emissions and should therefore receive a tax break for their diets “just as people who purchase a hybrid vehicle enjoy a tax break.” The letter cites research saying that a switch to a hybrid vehicle reduces a person's output of greenhouse gases by one ton each year while giving up meat would save 1.5 tons. – T. W. Farnam

As you know, we're obsessed with this whole question of whether the media will cede Rudy the aura of national security experience based on nothing more than the fact that he was Mayor of New York on 9/11. So we're gonna keep banging away at it until someone listens or until we get hauled away in a straight-jacket, whichever comes first.

The latest offender is today's New York Times:

Another presidential candidate, Rudolph W. Giuliani, a Republican, sought Thursday to further burnish his national security credentials by announcing his endorsement by Louis J. Freeh, the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation appointed by President Bill Clinton.

But again, Rudy doesn't have any national security credentials. There's nothing for Rudy to "burnish." In order to have credentials in a particular field or area of human endeavor, you need to have actual experience in it. Rudy doesn't. He is trying to burnish his image as someone with national security credentials.

This distinction matters -- a lot -- and the media's failure to recognize it could make Rudy the next President.

Obama: My Health Plan Is The Best Approach For Now
Barack Obama said that his health care plan, which focuses on extending coverage rather than guaranteeing 100% universal care, is "a smarter approach to provide affordable, universal health care" within a private health care system, as opposed to the more radical proposals of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. For true 100% coverage, Obama said, would not come until "we build a movement around the country for change."

Edwards and the National Intelligence Estimate
The big John Edwards "controversy" of the day is that he told a Google town hall that he had read the confidential National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, contradicting what his spokesman said a few days ago. Asked at the conference if he'd read the NIE, he said, "I read it. I read it." But Edwards' own spokesman told Ben Smith of The Politico that he hadn't read it. Our preliminary read, though we're far from certain, is that Edwards screwed up. We think he — wrongly — wasn't responding to the actual question and was addressing the larger question of whether he'd read intel on the war, which he'd been talking about previously. Nonetheless, the question itself was very specifically about the classified NIE. Video of Edwards at the conference is here — the key moment comes around 39 minutes in. — G.S.

In Louisiana, Nagin Considering Gubernatorial Bid
Ray Nagin, the controversial Mayor of New Orleans, is reportedly considering a bid for Governor this fall. Nagin has raised more than a half-million dollars since he was re-elected last year, even though he's term-limited out of office. Nagin would face an uphill climb, to say the least, against Republican Congressman Bobby Jindal — whom Nagin himself crossed party lines to endorse for Governor in 2003.

Thompson Takes Hawkish Stance On Israel And Iran
In a new column at Townhall.com, Fred Thompson argues on behalf of Israel's policies in the Gaza Strip, calling them a necessary reaction to terror, and saying that Israel has acted with restraint. At the end of the essay, Thompson turns the focus to Iran: "If the world doesn't act to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions, it must be prepared for the consequences of Israel defending itself."

Hillary Does Fundraiser With News Corp. President
A big Hollywood fundraiser last night for Hillary Clinton was at an interesting venue: The home of Peter Chernin, CEO of News Corporation — the parent company of Fox News. Also at the fundraiser were Steven Spielberg, Tobey Maguire, Jodie Foster and Ben Stiller — who, interestingly enough, has already attended an event for Barack Obama.

Clark Still Won't Rule Out Run
Ben Smith reports that Wes Clark still hasn't ruled out another run for President. "I haven't said I won't run," Clark said. "I think about running every single day." If that's true, then Clark should declare soon — like three months ago.

Romney: Hillary Worse Than The French
Mitt Romney has pulled off the cool trick of simultaneously engaging in Hillary-bashing and France-bashing. "She gave a speech a couple of days ago and laid out her vision for America," Romney said. "And as I listened to her I figured her platform wouldn't even get her elected in France."

Sabato Looks At Special Elections
Larry Sabato has an analysis up of five definite or potential vacancies in the House this year — in Massachusetts, California, Georgia, Missouri and Louisiana — and concludes that they are all in seats that would either certainly, or more likely than not, remain with their current parties in the special elections.

Edwards Links Energy Policy to Budgets of Middle-Class Families
Speaking in California today, Democratic presidential contender John Edwards unveiled; an energy policy that calls for investigating oil companies, regulating energy markets, mandating the use of biofuels, and raising fuel economy standards to 40 miles per gallon by 2016. The result, he said, would be lower fuel prices for American families. – T. W. Farnam

Gillibrand Gets Primary Challenger
Morris Guller, a political activist from Lexington, New York, has announced that he will challenge freshman Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand in the primary next year, citing her vote for the Iraq funding bill. "To vote 'yes' to supply additional funds to prolong the suffering and deaths of American troops and Iraqi citizens, to break your promise to help bring a quick end to this war ... is devastating," Guler said in a letter to Gillibrand.

Thompson Leaving "Law and Order"
The Web site HappyNews.com reports that former Senator and likely 2008 presidential contender Fred Thompson will not be returning to the next season of "Law and Order." Additionally, Thompson plays President Ulysses S. Grant in the HBO movie "Bury My Hear at Wounded Knee" which premiered Sunday. – T. W. Farnam

Gore Supports Democratic Leaders on Iraq Funding
Former Vice President Al Gore told the Politico's John Harris that Democrats should give their Congressional leaders the "benefit of the doubt" on their efforts to end the war in Iraq. "When they don't have the votes to override the president's veto, they have to do the best they can to frame new options," Gore said. – T. W. Farnam

New Hampshire Literally Refuses To Trade Freedom For Safety
The New Hampshire State Senate has defeated a proposal to require wearing seatbelts in a car. The vote was 8-16, with six Democrats joining all ten Republicans. While state law does require all people under age 18 to buckle up, New Hampshire remains the last state where adults can legally ride in cars without their seatbelts on.

The big John Edwards controversy of the day is that he supposedly lied when he told a Google conference yesterday that he had read the confidential National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq.

Asked at the conference if he'd read the NIE, he said, "I read it. I read it." This is being held up as contradicting what his own spokesman told Ben Smith of The Politico a few days ago: Chiefly,

Former Vice President Al Gore told the Politico's John Harris that Democratic Party activists should give the Congressional Democratic leadership the "benefit of the doubt" on its efforts to end the Iraq war, which have been loudly criticized by some for their tepidness:

"I would urge Democrats who want our troops out yesterday to show some understanding of the difficult hand the Democratic leaders have to play and give them the benefit of the doubt in expecting that they are going to continue to push the mandate they received from the voters last fall to change the course of this war."

Gore also told ABC News on Tuesday, the same night of his interview with Harris, that he himself would have voted "no" on the bill that the Democrats negotiated with President Bush for funding the war, despite the fact that it included no timeline for withdrawal and gave the president most of what he had asked of Congress.

Gore insists he isn't running for president in 2008 but continues to encourage speculation and egg on would-be drafters. Harris writes that Gore implied he might be tempted to run an unconventional campaign using the Internet as a way to get past the problems of contemporary politics, which he said "rewards a tolerance for artifice, repetition, triviality that I don't have in as great supply as I might have had when I was younger.":

"The solutions to what ails American democracy will take some time and will have to come from a broad engagement by people who do use the new opportunities and tools that are becoming available," he said. "And I think that out of that evolutionary process there may emerge opportunities for new kinds of candidates in both parties."

New Chris Dodd ad on global warming:

Just as with his earlier ad on Iraq, Dodd clearly is trying to stake out ground as bolder, more radical and less fearful than his more cautious Dem rivals when it comes to advocating solutions to the biggest of the big problems. Of course, John Edwards has already planted a fair amount of his own flags on this turf, on topics ranging from Iraq to global warming to Internet availability. Can Dodd make inroads?

Thomas Marino, the U.S. attorney for the Middle District of Pennsylvania who appeared on a short list of U.S. attorneys to be fired last November, is considering a run for Congress, he confirmed in an interview with us yesterday.

Marino is eyeing the state's 10th District seat, currently held by Dem Chris Carney, who defeated incumbent Don Sherwood last November amid allegations that Sherwood choked his mistress.

In a phone interview, Marino told us that he was "considering" a run for the seat -- but added that it was "one of several options that I have." It's certainly an active consideration: Marino said that he'd met a number of Pennsylvania Republicans, including Republican National Committee staffers, to discuss a possible bid. When asked whether he was being recruited for a run, he only said that there had been people at the federal, state, and local level who have been "encouraging" him to run for the seat.

The NRCC's operatives have privately described Marino as a choice candidate for the district, and the local Pennsylvania press has floated his name, but this is the first time to our knowledge that Marino has publicly acknowledged or discussed that he was actively considering a run. The earliest that Marino would decide whether to seek a bid, he said, would be early next year.

Marino's active consideration of a run is noteworthy partly because U.S. attorneys risk skirting ethics regulations when they move to run for office.

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Great Moments In Fox News Dept. ... Okay, this one takes a little bit of explanation, but stick with us, and we're sure you'll get a decent laugh out of it. More after the jump.

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A new poll just out from Siena College undermines one of the Rudy Giuliani campaign's key talking points to Republican audiences: That he'd be a fearsome adversary in a general election because he'd put blue, east-coast states like New York in play.

As Rudy himself put it a week ago: "My view of this race for president is that the Republican Party should not go into this election, as we have in the past, having to write off New York, Connecticut, New Jersey."

But the new poll, which is of New York voters, makes you wonder just how worrisome that prospect should be for Dems in the real world.

The poll finds that in New York, Giuliani certainly does better than the other Republican candidates. Nonetheless, he still loses to both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama by wide margins:

Clinton (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 39% Obama (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 40%

Sure, Rudy would do better in east-coast blue states than his GOP rivals, but would he really put New York in play in any meaningful sense? Not according to these numbers.

Meanwhile — and not at all surprisingly — the poll finds the top two Dem candidates absolutely overwhelming the other GOP candidates in New York:

Clinton (D) 54%, McCain (R) 36% Clinton (D) 57%, F. Thompson (R) 29% Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 33% Gore (D) 56%, F. Thompson (R) 28%

A new poll by Siena College would seem to question just how much good Rudy can do for the GOP on one of his campaign's main talking points. A big part of his campaign has been the idea that he can compete in deep blue states that have been off-limits to other Republicans, which could potentially guarantee victory if true.

"My view of this race for president is that the Republican Party should not go into this election, as we have in the past, having to write off New York, Connecticut, New Jersey," Rudy said a week ago. "We've got to make this a 50-state election."

The new poll, however, casts some doubt on this. In New York, where the voters know him best, Giuliani certainly does better than the other Republican candidates. But the problem is, he still loses by wide margins to both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and it isn't even close.

Clinton (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 39%
Clinton (D) 54%, McCain (R) 36%
Clinton (D) 57%, F. Thompson (R) 29%
Obama (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 40%
Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 33%
Gore (D) 56%, F. Thompson (R) 28%

An innovative new Gallup poll offers an interesting look at the state of public opinion on Iraq. It asks the following open-ended question (meaning that respondents supply their own answers):

If you could talk with President Bush for fifteen minutes about the situation in Iraq, what would you, personally, advise him to do?

Focus on getting U.S. troops out of Iraq: 54%

Focus on continuing with current policies or becoming more aggressive: 25%

So 54% volunteered some version of, "Let's get the heck out." Only a quarter of respondents offered some version of, "Let's keep doing things your way."

Editor and Publisher gets it right, commenting that the poll "reveals just how far the president and Congress -- and most newspaper editorial pages -- appear to stand from the wishes of the American public on getting out of Iraq."

That's for sure.

Say one thing for Democratic strategist Bob Shrum: He's not afraid to share inside info even when it makes him look very, very bad.

Take a look at this new excerpt from his political tell-all book in this week's Time magazine. In it, he details a behind-the-scenes meeting at which he advised then-Senator John Edwards -- whom Shrum was advising in the Fall of 2002 -- to vote to authorize the Iraq War. While Shrum perhaps deserves credit for candor, it really is kind of startling to see Shrum revealing that he worried that not just Edwards, but he himself, would look left wing if Edwards voted against it:

To my continuing regret, I said he had to be for it. As I listened to this, I watched Edwards's face; he didn't like where he was being pushed to go. The process violated a principle I'd learned long before—candidates have to trust their own deeply felt instincts. It's the best way to live with defeat if it comes, and probably the best way to win.

The meeting we held in the Edwardses' family room did him a disservice; of course, he was the candidate and if he really was against the war, it was up to him to stand his ground. He didn't. If he had, it almost certainly would have been Edwards and not Dean who emerged early on as the antiwar candidate. But Edwards didn't want to look "liberal" and out of the mainstream; he was, after all, the southern candidate and thought of himself as Clintonesque. He valued the advice and prized the support of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. I had my own concerns: If he took the antiwar route, I knew I would have been characterized as a malign force moving him to the left -- which wasn't true, although I wish it had been given that I now regard the Iraq invasion as one of the great mistakes in the history of U.S. foreign policy.

Priorities.

Fred Thompson Building His Campaign
The Washington Post reports that Fred Thompson and company will be working hard to build his late-entering campaign. "Within the next few weeks, advisers say, a real campaign will take shape, even without a final decision or formal announcement. A Web site will be posted, campaign headquarters will be selected, and a staff will be hired. The signature red pickup truck from Thompson's Senate campaigns will be dusted off." Of course, is makes sense for the campaign to take shape without a formal decision: Thompson appeared to admit yesterday that his supposed coyness about running, which helped generate a draft movement, was all a ruse.

Troops To Lieberman: "When Are We Going To Get Out Of Here?"
On a trip to Iraq yesterday by Senator Joe Lieberman (ID-CT), the troops he took questions from had one constant query to pose to him: "When are we going to get out of here?" A Connecticut constituent of the Senator, Spc. Will Hedin, said to McClatchy News, "We're not making any progress. It just seems like we drive around and wait to get shot at." Lieberman had his own take on the situation: "Overall, I would say what I see here today is progress, significant progress from the last time I was here in December. And if you can see progress in war that means you’re headed in the right direction."

Thompson Likely To Be On Straw Poll Ballot — Whether He Wants It Or Not
Jonathan Martin reports that although Fred Thompson and his nascent campaign are unsure of whether or not they should compete in this August's Iowa Straw Poll, his name may be put on the ballot by the state GOP anyway. "It’s our party, and we decide whose name is on the ballot," said Iowa GOP executive director Chuck Laudner. Mitt Romney is currently viewed as the heavy favorite for the poll, which is viewed as a crucial test of activist support in the state.

McCain: "Fred's A Very Good Friend. I Guess My Words Are, 'Come On In, The Water's Fine.'"
John McCain responded yesterday to news that his friend and former supporter Fred Thompson is also a more than likely contender for the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination. Thompson endorsed McCain's 2000 Presidential bid at a time when his campaign was far behind, and the pair also worked together to secure passage of McCain's landmark campaign finance reform law. — T. W. Farnam

Associated Press Slimes Hillary
Taylor Marsh catches some really atrocious AP reporting on Hillary. — G.S.

Congressional Quarterly Analyzes Thompson Record
Congressional Quarterly has put together an analysis of Fred Thompson's voting record in the Senate, finding he voted along with John McCain 81.4% of the time on what CQ deems to have been key votes. Thompson's average score of from the American Conservative Union was slightly to the right of Chuck Hagel (85%) and John McCain (82%) for the same period. Sam Brownback weighed in at an even more conservative 94%. Meanwhile, Club For Growth head Pat Toomey has given a positive initial review of Thompson's record: "As a general matter, I think Fred Thompson’s career in the Senate demonstrates a guy who does have a pretty strong commitment to limited government, free enterprise and particularly federalist principles."

Edwards Pitches Broadband Development
John Edwards chose a town hall at Google headquarters as the location to pitch his plan for cheaper, more available broadband. " For this democracy to work it needs to be from the ground up, not the top down," Edwards said. Edwards' plan involves the FCC setting aside some of the available broadband capacity for wholesalers to lease to start-ups serving underdeveloped areas.

Clinton FBI Director Endorsing Rudy
Louis Freeh, who served as head of the FBI under the Clinton Administration, is endorsing Rudy Giuliani. Freeh has been a critic of Bill Clinton, alleging that there was not a sufficient focus on security in his government. "Until 9/11, we lacked the political leadership and more important the political will to do what had to be done," Freeh wrote in his 2005 book, My FBI.

Obama And Romney Present Foreign Policy Stances
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have each outlined their positions on foreign policy in new, lengthy essays featured in Foreign Affairs magazine.

Romney: GOP Needs To Offer Its Own Health Insurance Solution
Mitt Romney told a Des Moines crowd yesterday that the Republican Party has to offer their own response to Democratic calls for universal health care, which he characterized as "government-mandated, government-run, government insurance," with a focus on public support for privately administered care. "That's got to be the right answer for us, because government running something is almost by definition going to be inefficient, ineffective and expensive," Romney said."

Sam Brownback Explains Evolution/Creationism Position
Sam Brownback, one of the three Republicans who raised his hand at their first debate to say he did not believe in evolution, has a guest piece in The New York Times explaining his position. "Biologists will have their debates about man’s origins, but people of faith can also bring a great deal to the table. For this reason, I oppose the exclusion of either faith or reason from the discussion," Brownback writes. "An attempt by either to seek a monopoly on these questions would be wrong-headed. As science continues to explore the details of man’s origin, faith can do its part as well." Brownback has been a support of intelligent design advocates in his home state of Kansas.

Obama Asks Dodd For Hearing on Executive Pay
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) sent a letter last night to Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-CT), a rival for the Democratic Presidential nomination, asking him to hold a hearing on executive compensation, a topic Obama hopes to address with a new bill. Dodd, who is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, had no comment last night, according to the Wall Street Journal. — T. W. Farnam

Republicans Like Richardson's Job Qualifications, Or At Least His Ads
The Hill reports on a new survey showing Republicans favorably rated ads that Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM) ran touting his qualifications for president in a mock job interview, which we highlighted three weeks ago. — T. W. Farnam

Stonyfield Yogurt CEO Not Running Against Sununu, Endorses Marchand
Gary Hirshberg, a prominent Democratic fundraiser, has ended speculation about a potential bid against Senator John Sununu (R-NH) by endorsing Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, who is running in the Democratic primary against staunch centrist Katrina Swett. As you may recall, we noted in March that Swett supported Joe Lieberman's 2006 independent campaign against Dem Ned Lamont in Connecticut, and defended her actions by falsely claiming that Liberman was endorsed by Barack Obama. — T. W. Farnam

In New Hampshire, Dems Showing More Energy
The Boston Globe reports on an interesting dynamic in the New Hampshire primary: While the top Democratic candidates have had to issue tickets to their overflowing events, Republicans have had trouble mobilizing any on the ground energy from their own people. "The enthusiasm is definitely on the Democrats' side, still," said former GOP Congressman Charlie Bass, who lost his seat last year. "I don't think there has been any change in the environment up here since the election last year."

Quinnipiac: Hillary, Rudy Continue To Lead In Pennsylvania
A new Quinnipiac poll finds Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continuing to lead in their respective primary races in Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton takes 33% of Democrats, followed by non-candidate Al Gore at 16%, and actual candidate Barack Obama falling to third place with 13%. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani has 28%, John McCain 11%, and Fred Thompson 10%.

Alaska's Palin: Massively Popular
Two recent polls from Alaska-based polling firms show that Governor Sarah Palin (R) may be the most popular Governor in the country. Ivan Moore Research puts Palin's approval rating at 89%, while a poll two weeks ago from Dittman Research pegs her at an even most astonishing 93% approval. Palin, elected on a fiery populist image, has announced plans to create a position to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and has promoted plans for a state-built natural gas pipeline. While she opposes same-sex marriage, Palin nevertheless instituted domestic partner benefits for gay state employees and vetoed a bill to stop such benefits.

Cynthia McKinney: 2008 Green Party Presidential Candidate?
Cynthia McKinney, the former left-wing Democratic Congresswoman from Georgia who lost her primary last year after hitting a Capitol Hill policeman, apparently refused to rule out a run for President on the Green Party ticket. "So, you know, 2008 has not been ruled out, some kind of effort. Certainly now it is questionable as to whether that effort would come under the banner of the Democratic Party," McKinney said. Hmmm ... We noted some months ago that McKinney is still raising money to retire supposed campaign debts, despite having an officially registered surplus.

Romney, Matt Lauer Fail To Wear Seatbelts In Interview
Mitt Romney and NBC's Matt Lauer are both apologizing for a recent interview in which the two men drove around New Hampshire without wearing their seatbelts. While it is not currently illegal in New Hampshire, Lauer nevertheless conceded that he set a bad example given his recent tough questions to New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine (D), who was seriously injured after not buckling up. Romney said in a statement, "Sometimes I forget to wear my seat belt. For my own safety, I need to keep reminding myself to buckle up."

New Hampshire Senate To Vote Today On Controversial Measure...
The New Hampshire State Senate will hold what is expected to be a close vote on a measure to outlaw not wearing a seatbelt. They are the last state that doesn't require seatbelt usage, some of the bill's backers are not optimistic about the vote. "There is a sense of sadness that lives will be lost and horrifying injuries will be incurred because as a culture, we continue to sort of accept the irrationality of the argument that it's my right to do something profoundly irresponsible," said state Senator Peter Burling (D). "It's nuts."

Dodd, Richardson To Join Boycott Of Fox Debate
Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd have announced that they will not attend the Fox News/Congressional Black Caucus Institute debate, joining Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards in their boycott of the conservative channel's proposed debate. The only Democrats to RSVP in the affirmative have been Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich. Question: Will Fox go ahead with this anyway, with only those two (and maybe Mike Gravel) just to publicly shame the majority of Democrats who didn't show up?

Obama Versus McCain
Don't miss the latest in their ongoing -- and very entertaining -- slugfest.

Times Didn't Disclose That Gerth Is Married To Adviser To Hillary Opponent
Garance Franke-Ruta has a very nice catch: Turns out that The New York Times ran a huge excerpt from the new book critical of Hillary by Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta without telling its readers that Gerth is married to an adviser to Chris Dodd. As a Democratic Primary opponent of Hillary, Dodd — and Gerth's wife — would seem to have an interest in seeing Hillary damaged. The tie was disclosed in the book, but Times readers would of course have no way of knowing that — or about the potential conflict of interest.

Gerth/Van Natta Book's Phantom Source
And speaking of the Gerth/Van Natta book, Ben Smith reports that Dana Singiser, Hillary's director of women's outreach, is calling upon the authors to retract their assertion that she was interviewed for the book. "More specifically, I was never approached by, ever spoken with, or had any e-mail exchange with either author or any person who identified his/herself as their representative," Singiser has written in a letter to the book's publisher.

Hillary: Bush Will Begin Withdrawing From Iraq
Hillary Clinton said in an interview with the Associated Press that she believes the President will begin pulling troops from Iraq soon. "He talked about [the Iraq Study Group report] favorably for the first time I've ever heard him talk about it," Hillary said. "That was to me a big signal that starting in the fall and toward the end of the year we're going to start seeing troops withdrawn from Iraq. My argument is, Why wait?" Atrios comments: "Please stop the fantasy about Bush ending this."

Edwards Calls On FCC To Make Internet More Accessible To Americans
John Edwards' credible bid to be the netroots' candidate continues today with this letter to the Federal Communications Commission.

Fred Thompson Reaches Out To Iowa — But May Skip Straw Poll
Fred Thompson has started reaching out to Iowa Republican officials, and plans to start hiring staff and competing in the all-important caucus. On the other hand, reports have come in that Thompson's late start may force him to skip the Iowa Straw Poll this August, where Mitt Romney is believed to have built up a strong lead.

GOP Candidates Worried About Thompson
"Our polling shows that Thompson cuts into our vote and pretty much everyone else’s vote, and also pulls from the undecided," an anonymous adviser to a leading GOP candidate told The New York Times. "A guy who can pull votes from everyone shows that he is not some narrow or single-issue candidate."

Mitt Romney Journeying To Thompson Country
Mitt Romney will be heading to Fred Thompson's Tennessee stomping grounds this Saturday, where he will keynote the state GOP's Republican Statesmen’s Dinner in Nashville. "The governor looks at these events as opportunities," Romney spokesman Kevin Madden told The New York Times, "it could be a Romney crowd by the end of the night." So how will this turn out? Will Romney make a splash, or will he have the poor fortune of delivering a previously scheduled speech to a crowd entirely pledged to their state's favorite son?

Details On The Thompson Conference Call
Stephen Hayes has some details on the conference call Monday between Fred Thompson, his backers and staffers-in-waiting, in which crucial details of his "testing the waters" committee and planned fundraising drive were worked out.

Al Gore: I'm Not Good At Politics
Appearing last night on Countdown with Keith Olbermann, Al Gore refused to entirely shut the door on another Presidential bid, but also offered a pretty stark admission. "I don‘t think I‘m necessarily very good at politics or at a lot of the things that our modern political system rewards," Gore said. "And as a result, I‘m serving in other ways."

Obama Skipping Key Events in Iowa and New Hampshire Saturday
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) will not be joining other contenders for the Democratic Presidential nomination at two key events in New Hampshire and Iowa this weekend. All his rivals will attend at least one event, and half will be attending both. The Hill writes that it fits a pattern of unconventional, risky behavior by the candidate. — T. W. Farnam

Romney Calls For Bigger Military
Stumping in Iowa, Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney said the U.S. military should be expanded by at least 100,000 Soldiers. He said the idea of pulling troops out of Iraq was "very tempting" but he said he will support the President's troop increase perhaps until the end of the year. Romney also said he does not support a universal health care plan run by the federal government, despite creating such a plan at the state level as Governor of Massachusetts. — T. W. Farnam

Kerry Campaign May Be Fined For Overspending
As if losing to Bush wasn't bad enough. Sen. John Kerry's (D-MA) 2004 Presidential campaign reportedly spent more than the $74.6 million allowed under the agreement he made to accept federal matching funds, according to a Federal Election Commission report. Kerry could be forced to refund the $1.4 million, which was spent on outfitting two campaign airplanes, to the U.S. Treasury. — T. W. Farnam

Former MySpace Webmaster for Obama Throws Support to Gore
The Hill reports that 29-year-old Los Angeles paralegal Joe Anthony, who recruited 160,000 friends on a MySpace page he created for Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) before it was shut down at the campaign's request, is no longer supporting Obama's Presidential candidacy and hopes Al Gore will enter the race. "What I hope they've learned from this, is that they should do more to embrace the netroots community rather than attempting to control it," Anthony said. — T. W. Farnam

In Kentucky, New Poll Confirms Bad News For Fletcher
A new poll from Rasmussen has Governor Ernie Fletcher (R-KY) trailing Democratic nominee Steve Beshear by a margin of 51%-35%. A poll released last Friday by SurveyUSA had Beshear up 62%-34%. Given SurveyUSA's phrasing for their questions — which is designed to push leaners — these two polls together could indicate that undecided and independent voters are heavily inclined towards Beshear, and the scandal-plagued Fletcher is stuck at the baseline GOP vote.

Yarmuth Gets Challenger — With Potentially Negative Links To Fletcher
In Kentucky, former state Homeland Security Director Erwin Roberts has filed to run against freshman Democratic Congressman John Yarmuth, who narrowly knocked off five-term GOP'er Anne Northup last year. On the one hand, Roberts' law-enforcement background could give him a boost, and the national Republican Party is always eager to boost black candidates in order to diversify their image. On the other hand, The Lexington Herald-Leader notes, "Roberts was named an unindicted co-conspirator during the lengthy investigation of the Fletcher administration's hiring practices ... A settlement that dismissed the charges against Fletcher nullified the findings of an internal review conducted by Roberts, who found that his cabinet didn't make any improper hirings."

Huffington Post Resurrects 1994 Anti-Romney Ads
The Huffington Post has a collection of truly brutal attack ads used against Mitt Romney in his 1994 race for the Senate against Ted Kennedy. The ads starred people who were fired from their jobs at an Indiana company after a corporate takeover by Romney's investment firm. If Romney is nominated in 2008, could these same workers make a comeback as a sort of "Downsizing Veterans For Truth?"

Today John McCain hit Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton again for voting against the no-withdrawal-timetables Iraq bill.

Now Obama's campaign spokesman, Bill Burton, has just responded to McCain's broadside in a statement that's notable for the gentle mockery directed at McCain for his habit of skipping votes in the Senate:

"As a senator who takes his duties seriously, and has also showed up to vote more than once this month, Barack Obama considers few responsibilities more important than his votes on the war in Iraq. Obama opposed the war from the beginning and, unlike Senator McCain, is committed to ending it as quickly and responsibly as possible."

"...and has also showed up to vote more than once this month..." Snark!

Between this and Obama's recent mockery of McCain's Baghdad Stroll, it's clear that the Obama camp is relishing every opportunity to use McCain and his recent antics as a foil -- something that probably appeals to Dems more than ever with McCain's embrace of the surge. Camp Obama just isn't afraid to make fun of the guy and to highlight his buffoonery.

And so we'll say it again: Barack, this is just not done. Everything McCain does is born of unimpeachable integrity, so we do not -- repeat, do not -- take such a dismissive tone with such a revered figure. D.C.'s elders will strongly disapprove of your insolence and David Broder will shake his head and murmur his disapproval.

Control of the Senate in 2008 could potentially turn on the question of whether Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) will run for re-election. Johnson, after all, underwent emergency brain surgery several months back, and has been occupied with physical therapy instead of the action on the Senate floor.

Now Robert Novak reports in his latest column that Johnson will definitely run:

Contrary to rumors, well-placed Democrats are positive that former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) will not run for the Senate next year in place of incapacitated Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.). National party operatives who have talked to Johnson on the telephone say he is improving rapidly, raising lots of money and definitely will run. Democrats fear Gov. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) would run against Daschle, but not Johnson.

The Iraq War doesn't really matter to voters.

That's Fred Thompson's view, anyway.

Thompson appears to believe that the huge Democratic victory over the GOP in the 2006 midterm elections had nothing to do with Iraq.

Check out this tidbit buried in the interview he gave today to USA Today confirming his plans to run for President:

On Iraq, Thompson voted to authorize the invasion in 2002 and now opposes setting a timetable to withdraw U.S. troops. Still, his fortunes aren't as inextricably tied to the war as those of McCain, one of the war's leading defenders.

In any case, Thompson argues that Republicans lost control of the House and Senate in November not because of the war but because of out-of-control spending and unrestrained partisanship. What's surprising is that Democrats didn't gain more ground, he says.

"It's been kind of a pox on both your houses," he says.

I dunno, I kind of remember the history a bit differently here. You?

Of course, Dems can only hope that Thompson really thinks this and continues to think it should he become the nominee, because not only were the 2006 elections all about the Iraq War, the 2008 Presidential election will be all about Iraq, too.

With the political world abuzz today over the plans leaked by Fred Thompson advisers that he may declare his Presidency next month, the candidate himself finally confirms in an interview with USAToday that he is planning to go for it:

STAMFORD, Conn. — Politician-turned-actor Fred Thompson has been coy with audiences as he flirts with a bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

In an interview with USA TODAY, however, the former Tennessee senator not only makes it clear that he plans to run, he describes how he aims to do it. He's planning an unconventional campaign using blogs, video posts and other Internet innovations to reach voters repelled by politics-as-usual in both parties.

One amusing tidbit from the interview: Thompson appears to admit to the paper that his previous coyness about running was, well, not entirely genuine and was designed to generate chatter around his pending candidacy:

"I can't remember exactly the point that I said, 'I'm going to do this,' " Thompson says, his 6-foot, 6-inch frame sprawled comfortably across a couch in a hotel suite. "But when I did, the thing that occurred to me: 'I'm going to tell people that I am thinking about it and see what kind of reaction I get to it.'"

Thanks for clearing that up, Mr. Thompson. His full interview with the paper is here.

Update: And there's more on Thompson's views on the politics of Iraq here.

One bizarre aspect of the fallout from the much-discussed book by Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta about Hillary: Leon Panetta, a key source for some of the book's key charges against the Clintons, appears to be not returning calls to reporters seeking his confirmation or denial of what's in the book.

Panetta is the chief on-the-record source for one of the book's key claims: That the Clintons had hatched a secret 20-year-project to get him elected President. This is used by the authors to bolster one of the book's central themes: That the Clintons have been ambitious and eyeing the Presidency for a very, very long time.

Panetta could clear up a lot of reporters' questions about this charge, which is inconclusive in various ways at present, simply by commenting on both the substance of the allegations sourced to him in the book, and on the tone and significance the reporters attached to it.

But Panetta is not doing this. Ben Smith of The Politico called him for comment on Friday, and Smith tells me that Panetta still hasn't returned his call. I've been trying to reach Panetta since yesterday morning, too, with no luck.

Panetta could clear up a lot here. Let's hope we hear from him.

All sorts of competing stories are making the rounds today on when exactly Fred Thompson plans to make his entry into the Presidential race (presuming he will do so, of course) — and we've read them so you don't have to! After the jump, we have a rundown for you of all the reporting — and rank speculation — that's out there today on the central political question of the day: When will Thompson declare?

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Report: Fred Thompson To Launch "Testing The Waters" Committee
Ryan Sager reports that Fred Thompson will officially launch a Presidential committee early next week, possibly as soon as this Sunday. Sources close to Thompson characterize it as a "testing the waters" committee, one step short of an exploratory committee — it will allow Thompson to raise money and hire staff, but he will not yet be able to advertise, publicly refer to himself as a candidate, raise money that could be transferred to other candidates, or raise money to get on state ballots.

Thompson To Officially Declare On July 4
Meanwhile, The Politico reports that Thompson will officially declare his candidacy on July 4, and also announce "that he has already raised several million dollars and is being backed by insiders from the past three Republican administrations." And as for what his actual campaign will be like, his old red pickup truck gimmick that he bought for his 1994 Senate race will be making a comeback.

Other Dems Hit Obama-Care For Not Going Far Enough
After Barack Obama released his health-care plan yesterday, with a focus on expanding coverage through a combination of tax incentives and public programs without actually guaranteeing 100% coverage, the other Democrats are starting to hit the plan for not being totally comprehensive. John Edwards called the proposal "simply inadequate." Hillary Clinton responded, "We have to achieve true universal health care."

Rasmussen: Immigration Bill Unpopular With Voters
A new Rasmussen poll finds that the immigration bill agreed to by Senate negotiators recently has failed to win over the American public thus far. Among voters, only 26% favor the bill, compared to 48% who are against it. Another bad number for the bill: Only 16% believe the bill will actually decrease illegal immigration, compared to 41% who think illegal immigration will increase if the Senate's bill becomes law.

House Conservatives Preparing Procedural Challenge To Immigration Bill
House conservatives opposed to the immigration bill are reportedly preparing to launch a procedural/constitutional challenge to the immigration bill, known as a "blue slip." Since revenue-related bills must originate in the House under the Constitution, conservatives may challenge the current bill — with its crucial back-taxes provision — as having unconstitutionally originated in the Senate. For a blue-slip challenge to succeed, however, it must have majority backing on the majority-Democratic House floor.

Gingrich: Republicans Should Model Themselves After Sarkozy
Newt Gingrich is taking a novel position for a Republican: He is suggesting that the party look to the wisdom of a Frenchman. In an interview with The New Yorker, Gingrich lambastes the current leadership of the Republican Party, especially President Bush and Karl Rove, and suggests the GOP run against the current leadership just as Sarkozy ran against his own country's conservatives. "What’s fascinating about Sarkozy is that you have an incumbent cabinet member of a very unpopular twelve-year Presidency, who over the last three years became the clear advocate of fundamental change, running against an attractive woman who is the head of the opposition," Gingrich said, in a clear allusion to how he thinks the party should fight Hillary Clinton.

McCain Trades Words With Bill O'Reilly Over Immigration Bill
Tonight, Fox News will run a taped interview of John McCain by Bill O'Reilly. A pre-released transcript of a testy exchange about the immigration bill has been made available here.

Hillary: Cut Corporate Tax Breaks, Scrutinize CEO Pay
Hillary is advocating proposals — though not yet specific enough to be called a plan — to close corporate tax breaks that enable companies to relocate job positions overseas, as well as an idea to open up the processes of CEO pay to public scrutiny and ensure independence in the decision-making of boards of directors. Regarding the Bush Administration's economic policies, Clinton said at a New Hampshire event last night, "It's like the trickle down economics without the trickle."

Rasmussen: Hillary Leads Lesser-Known Republicans By Only Small Margins
New polling from Rasmussen has Hillary Clinton with only single-digit leads over Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback, who as lesser-known candidates could very well amount to "generic Republican" in the eyes of many poll respondents. Hillary leads Brownback 49%-41%, and tops Huckabee 48%-43%.

Kucinich Accepts Fox Debate Invitation — Attacks The Top Three
Dennis Kucinich has officially accepted an invitation to a controversial Presidential debate hosted by Fox News and the Congressional Black Caucus Institute. In his press release, Kucinich attacked Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards for their war positions and refusal to debate on Fox. "This raises questions about their judgment, about who they are, who they represent? African-Americans — and Fox viewers — have a right to know," Kucinich wrote. The only other candidate thus far to RSVP in the affirmative has been Joe Biden, which led Markos "Kos" Moulitsas to write, "A Biden/Kucinich debate would be HILARIOUS. I'd watch."

Clinton Supporters Voting En Masse In Very Important Decision
Over 130,000 votes have been cast in the Hillary Clinton campaign's online plebiscite to determine ... the official campaign song.

Reviews Trickle In On Obama and Edwards' Health Care Plans

Today Barack Obama released his big health care plan -- and the bloggers with a special interest in health care policy are now offering their assessments. Ezra Klein's take is here. Kevin Drum's is here. Jonathan Cohn's is here. And Matthew Yglesias weighs in here. And so you can compare these to reactions to John Edwards' plan, which was released a few months ago, here are the takes on it from Cohn, Drum and Klein.

Tim Johnson's Office Releases More Photos

The office of Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) has released two photos of the Senator meeting at his Virginia home with chief of staff Drey Samuelson:

Villaraigosa To Endorse Hillary

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) will reportedly endorse Hillary Clinton tomorrow. This is significant for a number of reasons: Villaraigosa is one of the highest-ranking Hispanics in American politics, is the Mayor of the second-largest city in the country, and furthermore is the Mayor of the largest city currently presided over by a Democrat. In addition, he is an experienced hand in California, having a long involvement with labor politics in the state, and previously served as Speaker of the State Assembly.

Rudy Learning To Control His Temper

Rudy Giuliani is obviously learning to take care of the infamously abrasive style he used to have as Mayor of New York City. Take a look at his calm response in this video, in which an angry relative of a 9/11 victim accuses him of knowing beforehand that the Twin Towers would fall, and compare it to more petty stuff like his legendary call with the ferret owner, or his recent rebuke of Ron Paul at the South Carolina debate.

Rudy Being Tailed By Fire Fighter Protestors

As Rudy Giuliani builds his Presidential campaign around the aura of leadership he built up on 9/11, his campaign is going to have some unwelcome followers: Irate fire fighters, who will spread a message that he's not in fact the great leader he's made out to be. "If somebody can tell me what he did on 9/11 that was so good, I’d love to hear it." said Jim Riches, a deputy chief fire fighter whose son was killed that day. "All he did was give information on the TV."

Obama Doodle Sells For $2,075

Earlier this year, a group lobbying on behalf of suffers of the genetic disorder neurofibromatosis asked Barack Obama to sketch out a doodle in a packet they gave him, as part of a fundraising promotion the group regularly does. Since then, they have put the drawing on eBay, and it has sold for $2,075, almost triple the previous high-seller for the organization: A drawing by former X-Files star Gillian Anderson. Here is the Senator's sketch:

Romney: I Like Democrats

Despite a recent campaign ad in which the former Massachusetts Governor holds his home state up for conservative ridicule, Mitt Romney told an audience in New Hampshire today that he had an overall positive experience working with the heavily Democratic legislature in his state. "I hate to admit that I got good training and it actually worked out pretty well," Romney told the crowd, shifting from his usual partisan mode to that of a bipartisan conciliator. He also added, "We've found in state after state that Democrats and Republicans can get along and get the job done."

Bush Thanks "Republicans And Democrats ... Starting With And Mel Martinez"

President Bush may need to brush up on his bipartisan acknowledgments. At an event today in Atlanta to promote the immigration bill, Bush declared, "I appreciate the Republicans and Democrats in the United States Senate, starting with Saxby Chambliss and Mel Martinez, who put politics aside and put courage first to work on a comprehensive bill." While politicians of both parties have come together to support the bill, the only lawmakers present at that moment — and named by Bush — were high-ranking Republicans.

Iowa GOP Expects Overflow Turnout For Straw Poll

Iowa Republican Party executive director Chuck Laudner says he expects 50,000 people to show up at the Ames straw poll this August. By contrast, the usual location for the event, the Hilton Coliseum, is built for a capacity of 12,500 people. Laudner tried to book a larger venue, but was unable to do — meaning the activists will be crowding both in and around the Coliseum for the candidates' speeches and the voting for the straw poll.

Romney Meets Liberal Anti-Mormon Heckler

Mitt Romney met up today with self-proclaimed liberal Hillary-backer Al Michaud of Dover, New Hampshire, who shouted out,"I'm one person who will not vote for a Mormon," and then refused to shake the candidate's hand. Mitt Romney has previously faced a right-wing evangelical critic of his Mormon religion in South Carolina, but this may be his first documented case of someone bashing his religion from the left at a campaign appearance.

Coburn Aide: The Senator Is Not Running For President

Despite a report today in The American Spectator that Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK) was considering a run for President, Jonathan Martin reports that Coburn press secretary John Hart has shot this rumor down as quickly as it sprung up. "He has no intention of running for president," Hart said, attributing the story to "effective rumor planting by powerful donors who want to see a wholesale shake-up in the GOP."

In Illinois, Earlier Primary A Windfall For State GOP

With mega-state Illinois having up its primary to February 5 — intended to counter-balance the same move from New York, and help favorite son Barack Obama — the state's Republicans now find themselves being actively courted by the top three candidates. "It's ironic," said state GOP chairman Andy McKenna. "A move to help Obama helps the Republican Party."

Alaska, Georgia Sign Up For February 5

Two more states have joined the de facto national primary on February 5. In Georgia, Governor Sonny Perdue (R) has signed legislation for his state's primary voters to go to the polls that day. Meanwhile, the Alaska caucuses have been moved up to February 5, as well.

Donations to Ron Paul Campaign Double After Debate

Sources in libertarian Congressman Ron Paul’s (R-TX) campaign for the Republican presidential nomination say that their donations have doubled since he irked frontrunner Rudy Giuliani in the first Republican primary debate with the assertion that American foreign policy helped bring about the September 11 terrorist attacks — eliciting the most notable exchange of the debate and the torrent of ink that followed. The new flood of donations includes about 100 contributions of $2,300, the maximum allowed under federal law. – T. W. Farnam

Okay, the duel of the Hillary books just heated up big time.

We've just received our copy of Carl Bernstein's new book on Hillary, and something leaps right out at us.

Specifically: Bernstein's reporting directly contradicts one of the more important and more damning allegations about Hillary and Bill that is made by former Timesman Jeff Gerth and current Times reporter Don Van Natta in their big forthcoming Hillary book. The allegations in the Gerth-Van Natta effort have already garnered a great deal of attention from cable talkers like Chris Matthews.

The two books, neither of which have been released yet, have been dueling for media attention, with the publishers of both pushing up their pub dates in an effort to outdo one another.

The charge in question in the Gerth-Van Natta book -- which is called Her Way -- is that just after Bill's election in 1992, he and Hillary were already plotting two terms for her in the White House. This revelation, among others, was a key one used to bolster one of the book's central themes -- the long-term ambitions harbored by Hillary.

But Bernstein's book contains extensive on the record testimony from Hillary's best friend, Diane Blair -- he got exclusive access to her records -- that appears to directly contradict this charge.

Bernstein reports that according to Blair, Hillary had repeatedly confided to her that aside from a brief flirtation with running for Governor of Arkansas in 1990, she had no interest whatsoever in running for elected office up until 1999, when she started eyeing a New York Senate run. Blair even said that throughout the nineties Hillary very specifically had envisioned for herself a future at a think tank.

As you can see, the Bernstein and Gerth-Van Natta accounts would appear to be at odds with each other over one of the most important charges in Gerth and Van Natta's book. It's also worth noting that Bernstein's source for Hillary's thinking is a firsthand one, while Gerth and Van Natta's account was based on a second-hand source. What's more, the Gerth-Van Natta allegation was directly challenged elsewhere last week when the one person said by the authors to have first-hand knowledge of the alleged plot to make her President strenuously denied its existence to The Washington Post.

More after the jump.

Read more »

TPM Reader DK makes a pretty good point about the media's willingness to accord Rudy "national security stature" based on the fact that he was Mayor of New York on 9/11:

Hmmm -- since Giuliani's credentials on national security arise from "being there" on 9/11, couldn't one say that his experience is quite similar to Ron Carlee (County Manager of Arlington Co., VA on 9/11/2001) or Ernie Stull (Mayor of Shanksville, PA on that date). Maybe someone should speak to Carlee and Stull -- perhaps they have what it takes to be President too.

Heh. Of course, you could argue that many more were killed in New York than in those other locales -- placing a much greater leadership burden on Rudy -- but the point is nonetheless well taken.

One possible reason these other worthy local leaders haven't been accorded any of the "national security stature" Rudy has: Unlike him they didn't spend literally years traveling the country giving scores of lucrative speeches about 9/11 and about their own alleged heroism in the disaster's aftermath.

Johnathan Cohn, on the Edwards plan:

In some ways, suggesting that worthwhile government spending should take priority over deficit-reduction is even more controversial than proposing to raise taxes. But that's not the plan's most intriguing — and potentially radical — feature. That distinction would belong to a tiny provision tucked within the Health Market proposal — one that only true aficionados would notice. The provision is for what's known as a Medicare buy-in. When people go to buy insurance through the Health Markets, they'll have the option to buy into a public program modeled on Medicare. This would, in theory, set up a competition between the public and private insurance plans. And, if the public program ends up winning in the long run — by attracting most or all of the subscribers — then eventually you'd have what is basically a single-payer system, in which the government provides insurance directly to most people through something like Medicare.

Kevin Drum, on the Edwards plan:

Upside: Edwards' plan has the potential to evolve into a rational single-payer model in the future. Downside: It might not, and in the meantime it combines the additional cost of universal coverage without the offsetting benefits of the administrative savings from a single-payer system.

Overall, though, it's a decent plan.

Ezra Klein, on the Edwards plan:

In other words, the public sector will finally be allowed to compete with the private sector, and consumers will be able to decide which style they prefer. For Democrats, this is a significant step forward. From there, the plan offers the usual mix of sliding subsidies to ensure affordability, individual mandate to universalize coverage, pay-for-performance promises, and public health fixes. You've heard those bits before. What's new, and what's important, are the community rated health markets that include public insurance. Indeed, the plan satisfied every plank of my progressive health reform test from last week.

Ezra Klein, on the Obama plan:

want to be very clear on this point. Obama's plan is not a universal plan. After it is implemented, it will not have 100 percent of the population covered. It will increase coverage by forcing some employers to begin offering insurance, but it is not particularly heavy-handed even there. This is a plan that makes universality possible — that is budgeted for 100 percent coverage — but does not use a government or individual mandate to force global buy-in.

Kevin Drum, on the Obama plan:

... it sounds like it's a pretty standard take on current conventional healthcare wisdom among Democrats. It relies on private insurance companies, presumably because everyone is convinced that nothing can be passed if we piss off insurance companies. There's some kind of play-or-pay tax on businesses: either provide insurance for your employees or else pay into a central fund. Small businesses will go ballistic over this, but I guess it's OK to piss them off. Oddly, there's apparently no personal mandate, which is everyone's favorite healthcare policy prescription du jour, which in turn makes it a little unclear how the whole insurance company thing is going to work.

Jonathan Cohn, on the Obama plan:

Finally, sources close the Obama campaign are making a not-ridiculous case that the plan really will achieve universal coverage by 2012, as Obama is promising.

Still, I have some serious doubts about that last point, for reasons that have to do with politics as much as policy. Whether you get everybody or not at the outset is one of those big issues that actually matter (as opposed to second-order stuff like, for example, whether the subsidy to small businesses is as big as it should be, etc).

Matthew Yglesias, on the Obama plan:

As you'll see if you read the Official Ezra Klein Analysis of the Obama health care plan, he's managed to transcend the division between those who favor the release of specific health care plans during the campaign and those who oppose it. The plan has tons of details, but on the two most important points — how does the National Health Insurance Exchange (like Edwards' "Health Markets") work, and what is the scale of the new public option — he's pleasingly vague.

Ezra Klein, on Bill Richardson's plan:

In any case, this seems pretty indicative of the Richardson campaign so far. It's a technically sound and fairly workable half-measure coming from a candidate with no apparent rationale for such instinctive caution. Worse, the half-measures involved are neither substantially better half-measures than other, likelier, candidates else have offered, and nor are they part of a larger and more interesting vision than others have outlined. So you tell me, Richardson fans: Why should this make me support his candidacy?

Mitt Romney, the richest in a crop of very wealthy Presidential candidates, will not take his Presidential salary if elected, according to the Associated Press:

Republican Mitt Romney, conceding that his business career helped him make more money than he expected, said Tuesday he would likely give his presidential salary — and more — to charity...

"When I got started, I went to school and I never anticipated that I'd be as financially successful as I was, and then my business went far better than I expected it would," Romney, a former venture capitalist, told a woman who asked him how the country's political system could be corrected if most of the presidential candidates are millionaires....

Later, speaking with reporters, Romney said he would likely accept the presidential salary of $400,000 annually but donate the money. While governor, Romney declined his $135,000 annual salary..."I presume I would take the salary and then I would donate at least that amount — or more — to charity."

By one count, the Presidential field boasts at least 10 millionaires and is collectively worth a quarter billion dollars. We know that being a millionaire isn't what it used to be, but still -- will any other candidates follow Romney's lead?

Okay, here's a bit more on this whole question of whether the media and pundits will aggressively point out that Rudy's performance on 9/11 does not in any way, shape or form constitute anything resembling national security experience.

A commenter below points to an astonishing moment on Keith Olbermann's May 16 show about the GOP debate that captures the dynamic perfectly. Olbermann's guest, pundit John Harwood, a senior writer for The Wall Street Journal and CNBC's chief Washington correspondent, offered the following on Rudy:

HARWOOD: Well look, Keith, I think those answers by both McCain and Giuliani help both men perhaps in the primary and in the general election for different reasons. McCain`s core message is toughness, and that I`m tough enough that I can go against my party on this issue. Why? Because I`ve been in combat. I`ve been tortured myself, as you mentioned.

Rudy Giuliani also has a bit of a claim to combat in a different way, because he was on the ground in 9/11.

Even allowing the speaker here a bit of oratory license, we nonetheless feel compelled to point it out: Rudy doesn't have combat experience. He doesn't have national security experience, either. He walked through the smoke and dust on 9/11 and held a bunch of press conferences at which he uttered a bunch of emotional and reassuring phrases. But the actual recovery effort he ran, while praised by some, has attracted a whole bunch of criticism, too.

Again: We're singling this punditry out because it's a reminder that if the media, and Rudy's rivals, cede him the aura of national security experience based on nothing more than the fact that he ran New York City on 9/11, he stands a much better chance of becoming President.

Update: And let's not forget NBC political director Chuck Todd's repeated assertion -- with no trace of irony -- that Rudy "owns 9/11."

Update II: Turns out Media Matters was way ahead of us on this, flagging it, you know, back when it happened.

Today's lead story in The Politico claims that social conservatives are supporting Rudy Giuliani despite his views on abortion and gay rights, offering the following astonishing explanation for this:

Giuliani has tried to appeal to social conservatives, embracing their agenda by pledging to appoint "strict constructionists" to the Supreme Court, using Justices John G. Roberts Jr. and Samuel A. Alito Jr. as examples. Conservatives expect "strict constructionists" to determine that the Constitution does not mandate abortion rights.

But, like Dwight Eisenhower's in 1952, Giuliani's national security stature after the Sept. 11 attacks more likely explains his continued popularity within the religious right, whose voters have long held hawkish positions on the issue.

So we're now writing that Rudy outright has "national security stature?"

In the real world, of course, Rudy doesn't have national security stature at all. He was a mob-busting U.S. Attorney, ran New York as mayor for two terms, walked through the smoke and dust on 9/11, then did a bit of globe-trotting as part of his post-mayoralty moneymaking efforts. Rudy has no national security experience of any kind -- let alone "stature" in this field.

By contrast, Dwight Eisenhower -- with whom Rudy is astonishingly compared here -- had served as the Supreme Commander of the Allied forces in Europe during World War II, as well as becoming the first supreme commander of NATO, before becoming President.

What Rudy does have is an aura of national security experience -- that is, the appearance of having it, or something like it, anyway -- based on the fact that he happened to be Mayor of New York on 9/11. One gains "stature" in a given field when they have actual experience in it. Even if you agree that Rudy's post 9/11 leadership was admirable, it simply doesn't constitute an achievement in the field of national security. Rudy's aura of national security experience is a media creation, nothing more, helped along by silly passages like this one in The Politico.

We wouldn't be stamping our feet about this if it didn't make a larger point with far-reaching implications for the Presidential race: If the media, and Rudy's political rivals, cede Rudy the aura of national security experience based on nothing other than his performance on 9/11, he stands a much better chance of becoming President. Descriptions of the candidates matter.

In his Washington Post column today, Richard Cohen sinks to startling levels of incoherence and inconsistency in order to make the case that President Bush is really a "neo-liberal," whatever he means by the phrase.

To make this argument, Cohen presumes sterling motives on Bush's part on a bunch of fronts -- his hiring of a racially diverse cabinet, immigration, etc. -- without ever explaining why we're presuming that such admirable sentiments are behind his decisions. Cohen confides -- apparently without breaking down into a hysterical laughing fit -- that these decisions actually reveal that Bush is a "sentimental softie." Most unsightly, though, is his explanation for why Bush is actually a sentimental softie on Iraq, too:

I acknowledge that the war is a catastrophic mistake and was incompetently managed. But if you don't think it was waged on behalf of oil or empire, then one reason for our involvement was an attempt to do some good -- rid the world of a really bad guy and make life better for Iraqis and others in the region. This "liberal" intent may have left Dick Cheney cold and found Don Rumsfeld indifferent, but it appealed to Bush and it showed in his rhetoric and body language.

His "liberal intent" is showing in his body language?

What's funny about this is that Cohen is arguing that Bush's Iraq invasion was motivated by a desire to "do some good" -- even though Cohen himself sharply questioned Bush's motives on Iraq only a year ago. In a column last March called "Bush Wanted War," Cohen argued:

There remains, though, the little matter of what was in Bush's gut -- not his head, mind you, but that elusive place where emotion resides. It was there, in the moments after 9/11, that Bush truly decided on war, maybe because Saddam had once tried to kill George H.W. Bush, maybe because the neocons had convinced him that a brief war in Iraq would have long-term salutary consequences for the entire Middle East, maybe because he could not abide the thought that a monster like Saddam might die in his sleep -- and maybe because he heard destiny calling.

Whatever Bush's specific reason or reasons, the one thing that's so far missing from the record is proof of him looking for a genuine way out of war instead of looking for a way to get it started. Bush wanted war.

So a year ago, Cohen didn't know why Bush invaded. Cohen said he thought that Bush appeared driven to have a war no matter what -- perhaps in order to avenge the assassination threat to his dad, or perhaps in order to secure a place for himself in history, Cohen speculated. Yet today, Cohen suddenly is convinced by Bush's "body language" that Bush's chief motive was to "do some good."

Look, we understand that the editorial real estate and fat paychecks enjoyed by the elite columnists places tremendous pressure on them to say something new and different, something that's going to cut through the clutter and get some attention. But please, let's not allow ourselves to succumb publicly to that pressure in such a humiliating way. Let's get a grip. This is just beyond pathetic.

Special thanks to this blogger for sending today's Cohen effort our way.

Dem Candidates Chasing Superdelegates

The Democratic candidates are actively using their Congressional whip operations and other resources to court "superdelegates" — Democratic Governors, Senators and Congressmen who are by virtue of their positions ex officio delegates to the national convention. The Associated Press counts 37 such superdelegates supporting Hillary Clinton, followed by 23 for Barack Obama, 15 for John Edwards, 8 for Chris Dodd, and 4 for Bill Richardson.

Cindy Sheehan Quits Anti-War Movement — Blames Fair-Weather Liberals

In an open letter published online, Cindy Sheehan has announced that she is quitting her anti-war activism, in part blaming liberals who ceased to stand by her when she turned her attention to Democratic politicians who were not working to end the war. "This system forcefully resists being helped and eats up the people who try to help it. I am getting out before it totally consumes me or anymore people that I love and the rest of my resources," Sheehan wrote. "Good-bye America ... you are not the country that I love and I finally realized no matter how much I sacrifice, I can’t make you be that country unless you want it."

Obama To Unveil Universal Health Care Proposal

Barack Obama is scheduled to deliver a speech in Iowa City today, outlining his plan for universal health care. The plan will reportedly involve government subsidies on a sliding scale of people's income so that they can buy insurance, a requirement that individuals get insurance, and the creation of a "National Health Insurance Exchange" to monitor insurance companies.

Lampson Will Not Run For Senate

Congressman Nick Lampson (D-TX), who lost his seat in the 2004 "re-redistricting" only to make a comeback for none other than Tom DeLay's seat last year, will not run for Senate against first-term Republican John Cornyn. Instead, Lampson will seek re-election to his GOP-leaning seat, which he won last year over a write-in candidate. A political consultant for Lampson said it would be "disingenuous" to leave the seat after only one term, having pledged to serve the people of the district. Remaining potential Democratic candidates include former state Comptroller John Sharp and state Rep. Rick Noriega.

Rudy Stay In The Lead With Social Conservatives

According to an analysis of poll data by the Pew Research Center, Rudy Giuliani is maintaining his lead among social conservatives despite his liberal views on abortion and other social issues. "A significant number of social conservatives have adopted a pragmatic line," said Pew senior fellow John Green, referring to Giuliani's perceived electability advantage over the other GOP candidates. So can Rudy sustain this, or will social conservatives eventually sour on him?

Yesterday Was Rudy's Birthday — With Fundraising Parties Today

Rudy Giuliani will be belatedly celebrating his birthday — which coincided with Memorial Day this year — by holding fundraisers in four of New York City's five boroughs. He will be going everywhere except Manhattan, where he's already taken in large sums, at events ranging from $250 minimum donations to much higher amounts.

Romney: Military Families Didn't Complain To Me About The War — One Year Ago

Mitt Romney reportedly told an American Legion Hall audience in New Hampshire yesterday about his Memorial Day last year, which he spent calling the families of some 93 Massachusetts soldiers stationed in Iraq. The families, Romney said of his year-ago encounter, did not complain about the war. "It was really inspiring. I didn't hear a single complaint. Didn't hear a single family say 'Why can't you bring my son or my daughter or my loved one home?'" Romney said. "The people of America are a very special people and recognize the great price associated with freedom."

News Corporation Investing In The Black Caucus' Causes

The Congressional Black Caucus Institute is working hard to salvage their plans for a Democratic debate hosted with Fox News, The New York Times reports, in part to hold on to benefits derived from News Corporation's patronage. "Not only has Fox given over precious air time for the debate, but an examination shows that its parent company, News Corporation, has also taken other steps to reach out to the group’s constituency, including making campaign donations to the caucus and its members and creating internship programs at predominantly black colleges," the Times writes.

Former Hastert Aide: Pelosi Wrong To End "Majority of the Majority" Rule

Buried in a new article in Roll Call about Nancy Pelosi's decision to end Dennis Hastert's "Majority of the Majority" rule — Hastert would refuse to expedite any legislation to the floor unless it had the support of a majority of Republicans, regardless of whether or not it had support in the House overall — is a quote from a former Hastert aide that says a lot about the former Speaker's governing style: "It’s going to be difficult for Pelosi to show consensus in her own party if that is how she’s going to do it ... It could have a boomerang effect, especially during an election year. Sometimes it’s better to have the issue and not the result."

Romney Camp Adjusts To Frontrunner Status

The Boston Globe reports on the outlook at the Romney campaign in Iowa, and how they are dealing with suddenly taking the lead in the polls. State House Minority Leader Christopher Rants, a Romney supporter, reportedly told the campaign it was "Too early to look too good," as they adjust to their frontrunner status. The Romney campaign's goal for now is to keep inundating the state with ads and on-the-ground organizational efforts ahead of the straw poll this August.

Coburn Reportedly Contemplating White House Bid

The American Spectator reports that Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK), a strong religious conservative, is contemplating a jump into the Republican Presidential field. "He's all about faith, lower taxes, and staying the course in Iraq," said an aide from outside the Senate. The kicker: If Coburn runs, he would reportedly have the backing of "several low-profile members of the so called 'Swift Boaters.'"

McConnell: Immigration Won't Hurt Anybody's Re-Election

Although Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell conceded that immigration is a "divisive issue," he does not think any incumbents need fear political consequences from the current bill. "I don't think there's a single member of either party next year who is going to fail to be re-elected over this issue," McConnell told Bloomberg Television.

Rasmussen: Romney Moves Into Second Place

Rasmussen polling has Mitt Romney overtaking John McCain for the second place position in national polling, possibly due to conservative ire against McCain's immigration bill. Rudy Giuliani still leads with 25% — roughly the exact same number he's had for the past month — while Romney has surged to 16%, ahead of John McCain's 15% and Fred Thompson's 12%. While Romney's lead over McCain is not yet statistically significant, it may nevertheless be a sign of momentum in his favor.

Former NY Post Reporter: The Dems Duped Us On Kerry/Gephardt

Former New York Post gossip writer Ian Spiegelman is now claiming that Democratic sources intentionally duped the paper into running its infamous July 6, 2004, cover claiming that Dick Gephardt would be John Kerry's running mate. Spiegelman claims the story was planted by the Democrats in order to make the Post "appear foolish on a national level." Post editor-in-chief Col Allan denies the story, and a spokesman for the DNC declined to comment to the New York Times.

Shrum: Kerry Adviser Told Him He'd "Never Be President" If He Didn't Vote For Iraq War
In his upcoming political tell-all book, Bob Shrum alleges that John Kerry called him to ask for his political advice on the eve of the October 11, 2002, vote to authorize the Iraq invasion. Kerry was privately skeptical of the WMD claims and distrusting of the Bush Administration, Shrum writes, but Kerry adviser Jim Jordan told Kerry: "Go ahead and vote against it if you want, but you'll never be president of the United States." Shrum's implication is that despite his private doubts about the wisdom of the war, Kerry voted for it in response to political advice. Nonetheless, it is Jordan who emerges from the account looking the worst. Current Kerry aides say that his vote for the war was based on conviction.

McCain: Don't Treat September As A Deadline
John McCain is standing by the current plan in Iraq, telling the Associated Press. "I have tried to discourage my Republican colleagues from saying that September is some kind of seminal moment." McCain criticized Democrats and other dissenters for failing to consider the consequences of withdrawal, which he calls "Plan B." "I believe that General Eisenhower didn't have a Plan B at Normandy, and I don't think that General Grant had a plan B when he decided to take Richmond," said McCain. "I know of a number of other options - the problem is, none of them are any good."

Sessions: The Surge Has Until September
Speaking yesterday on CBS' Face The Nation, Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL) said the surge has until September. "By September, when General Petraeus is to make a report, I think most of the people in Congress believe, unless something extraordinary occurs, that we should be on a move to draw that surge number down," Sessions said.

Richardson To Stop Using Fallen Marine's Name
Bill Richardson will stop using the name of the late Marine Lance Cpl. Aaron Austin, a New Mexican who was killed at age 21 in in Iraq three years ago, in his campaign appearances. Richardson has previously talked about how Austin's mother, De'on Miller, had complained of federal death benefits being too low, prompting him to start a fund for the families of fallen troops. Miller, a staunch Republican, has denied that any such conversation took place, and has called upon Richardson to stop citing her late son's death.

Obama Calls For Better Mental Health Care For Veterans
Barack Obama announced a plan over the weekend to make mental health care more available to troops, including greater screenings and no denial of benefits due to pre-existing conditions, plus more counseling for military families. "Let's lead, by showing the world how we treat our veterans when they come home ... We still don't make sure those who have problems have the adequate counseling; we don't help families the way we should," Obama said.

Vilsack Playing Large Role In Clinton's Iowa Campaign
Tom Vilsack has taken a key role in the Hillary Clinton campaign, advising them on strategy for Iowa and doing outreach in the key state where he served as Governor. "Aides acknowledge privately that Vilsack's work for the campaign has the look of a rehearsal for the role of running mate, should Clinton win the nomination," The Des Moines Register reports. "But while he embarks on a busy summer for Clinton, no prospective No. 2 on a hypothetical Clinton ticket has a higher bar than Vilsack, whose first task is to ensure the senator's success in Iowa's leadoff caucuses."

Biden: My Vote For The Iraq Funding Bill Was The Right One
Joe Biden justified his vote in favor of the Iraq funding bill last week, noting that while it may cost him votes in the Presidential primaries, other war opponents such as Carl Levin and Jack Murtha voted for it, too. "I know what the right political vote was, but some things just aren't worth it, Wolf," Biden said on CNN's Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer. "I'm not running for president to get the nomination by any cost."

GOP Candidates Embracing Iraq/Al Qaeda Link
Steve Benen notes a piece in The Boston Globe that reports on the tendency of the Republican candidates for President to allege a link between Osama bin Laden and the Iraq War, including the frequently invoked "follow us home" line. A good example is Mitt Romney's recent remark, "They want to bring down the West, particularly us. And they've come together as Shia and Sunni and Hezbollah and Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda, with that intent."

Clinton Campaign Memo: Focus On Early Voting

The infamous internal Clinton campaign memo that made the case for skipping Iowa had another facet to it, which could potentially become a key part of the Clinton campaign and others, too. Deputy campaign manager Mike Henry pointed out that before Iowa and New Hampshire even vote, potentially millions of absentee ballots will already have been sent out in the larger states voting on February 5. "Iowans will not be the first to vote ... We must fund an expensive paid communications and a vote by mail/early vote program in these mega-states," Henry wrote.

Cheney Denounces Geneva Conventions, U.S. Constitution

Steve Benen points out that at Dick Cheney's commencement speech at the United States Military Academy yesterday, the Vice President had harsh words for the Geneva Conventions and the protections of the Constitution. "Capture one of these killers, and he'll be quick to demand the protections of the Geneva Convention and the Constitution of the United States," Cheney said. "Yet when they wage attacks or take captives, their delicate sensibilities seem to fall away."

Richardson Stumbles On Meet The Press

Bill Richardson seemed to be having a tough time on Meet The Press this morning. The candidate was grilled by Tim Russert on subjects ranging from the Wen Ho Lee case to gun control, his endorsement of Roe v. Wade dissenter Byron White, and whether he was ever offered a baseball contract. A full video of Richardson's appearance should be posted on the Meet The Press Web site later this afternoon.

Edwards: My Wealth Won't Hurt Me — My Background Helps

John Edwards said in an interview that he does not think his wealth would damage his populist image. "I think, in America, we generally admire people who've pulled themselves up by their own bootstraps," Edwards said. His wife Elizabeth added, "In order to give millions of dollars, you actually have to earn millions of dollars. The only people capable of doing those things are people who have either inherited money — that would not be John — or by their own work amassed enough money to do those things."

Romney Misrepresents Jeb's Position On Illegal Immigration

Mitt Romney reportedly told a crowd in Florida, "I deputized, as did Gov. Bush here, my state police to be able to enforce immigration laws." One problem, according The St. Petersburg Times: Jeb Bush's pilot program for training state police dealt with suspected terrorists, not illegal immigration in and of itself. Bush went even further at the time, saying he "would have a lot of trepidation if local law enforcement became the immigration cops of the country."

Jeb Bush: I Did Not Criticize Romney

Jeb Bush has issued a statement denying reports that he privately said he was "disappointed" in Mitt Romney's hard-line stance against illegal immigration. Many of Jeb's aides have joined the Romney campaign in Florida, and Romney has come to be viewed as the unofficially (thus far) endorsed candidate of Jeb Bush.

Obama Plans BIG Fundraiser in Chicago

Barack Obama's campaign has a huge fundraiser planned for June 8 in Chicago, expected to take in $1.5 million in contributions, the single largest haul for the campaign yet. The nine individual chairs for the event have each pledged to each raise at least $100,000.

Huckabee Criticizes Washington, Immigration Bill

In response to a question about the immigration bill, Mike Huckabee had strong words for Presidential candidates based in Washington, suggesting that they don't have credibility on a whole host of issues. "There's really a disconnect I think between people in this city and folks out there in America who when they see Washington say we have this wonderful plan, they say yeah right, we saw what you did with Katrina, we saw what you did with corruption, we saw what you've done in terms of managing the war," Huckabee said. "So when you tell us you've fixed immigration, we're not buying it. It is a credibility issue as much as it is an issue with the details."

Video: Fred Thompson's Speech In Connecticut

Here's an embedded video of Fred Thompson's entire speech at a Connecticut GOP dinner on Thursday, courtesy of The New York Sun, in which he denounced the immigration bill and seemed to go even further in blasting Ronald Reagan for the 1986 immigration law: