Poll: Indy Run By Bloomberg Siphons Support Entirely From GOP
Check this out: A new Rasmussen poll shows that an Independent candidacy for President by Mike Bloomberg would draw almost all its support away from the Republican nominee.
The poll asks respondents who they'd vote for in a hypothetical three-way race between Independent Bloomberg, Hillary Clinton and John McCain; it also runs the same numbers with Bloomberg, Hillary and Rudy Giuliani. In both cases, interestingly, Hillary's support holds steady at 46% — in line with other Rasmussen polls testing Hillary in two-way races — while both of the GOP candidates drop to 37%. Bloomberg is a distant third with eight or nine points, siphoned away from the Republican column.
Key footnote: Though Bloomberg became a Republican to run for Mayor in 2001, he is a longtime liberal Dem who's given hundreds of thousands of dollars to Dem candidates over the years — a fact that might alter the above findings once Republican voters learn of it. Meanwhile, this poll would seem to suggest — like other surveys — far more enthusiasm about their candidates among Dem voters than among Republican-leaning voters, who appear to be hungry for an alternative to their party's current candidates.
And that is without a candidate from the Fundie Party. It is hard to believe that Rudy would not provoke that (unless of course they do not believe their own rhetoric, which is of course a possibility).
global citizen
April 6, 2007 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
This poll is to be looked at with real caution because Bloomberg is likely to take a good deal of the pro-abortion GOP supporters (mostly suburban GOP women) but greatly benifit a candidate like Thompson who is conservative but appears to be more moderate to moderates and Independents. The result might also be a split of Dems who do not like CLinton and GOP supporters who do not like anti-abortion candidates like Thompson . Bloomberg would then take from both sides. And a CLinton Thompson match might be very close. Also, Bloomburg might spend 500million of his own money and that is a lot of $$ to convince Dems. Depending on where he targets his ads, it could swing the election. The Dems better play nice if he runs
April 6, 2007 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have no idea how a Bloomberg candidacy would play out in the long run, but I seriously doubt Hillary would get any lower a percentage of Dem votes than John Kerry did in 2004. The fact that her number remains unchanged with Bloomberg included means Dems are already backing her.
BTW, a Fox News poll showed Bloomberg taking votes away from Giuliani, too. Saw it on www.pollingreport.com
April 6, 2007 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
What southern Republican is gonna vote for Bloomberg? The southern Repubs would vote for Thompson. It's the northern moderate Repubs that will vote for Bloomberg. I just don't see Bloomberg .. or any third candidate besides Nader(if he runs) getting many votes from people who normally vote Dem.
April 6, 2007 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
First off, I'll admit that I'm a big Bloomberg fan--I was strongly against him in 2001 as the usual egomaniac billionaire businessman who had no clue about how to govern, and by four years later I was getting into fights on Daily Kos defending him. He's not perfect, but he's been an excellent city administrator whose financial independence has allowed him to take on big structural problems--the schools, poverty, the city's infrastructure.
I don't think the country is ready for a candidate like Bloomberg. In addition to being short, Jewish and divorced (the reasons he always gives for why he couldn't win), he's said some incendiary things, doesn't pander, has had a lot of sex and admitted to trying and enjoying drugs. Frankly, our electorate isn't thoughtful enough to appreciate a guy like him.
I doubt he runs unless 1) Hillary is the Democratic nominee and 2) neither McCain (whom Bloomberg likes, for some dumb reason) or Rudy (whom I think he privately disdains, but to whom he owes his initial mayoral victory) is the Republican nominee. If it's, say, Hillary vs. either Thompson, I think he's in--and I'd support him all the way.
April 6, 2007 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
This poll is meaningless. Most people don't know his position on the issues.
Bloomberg is anti death penalty,anti gun, pro choice, pro liberalization of drugs. If he runs he will hurt the Democratic candidate.
April 6, 2007 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Imagine the following scenario; fundies having to choose between Mormon Romney or Bloomberg.
April 6, 2007 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ghost of Tom Joad said:
[Come back, Tom Joad, come back. We need you bad.]
This fiction will not die.
I and many other liberals voted for Ralph Nader and Ross Perot and even John Anderson rather than the Republican Lites that the Democrats have insisted on running. I only voted for a routine conservative hack like John Kerry because he was also a Vietnam veteran and under assault even more vicious than usual for that service.
As long as the Democratic Party writes off the working class in favor of their bosses ("the suffering middle class"(tm)), Ralph Nader and others of his like will continue to get liberal votes that were never destined for hard conservatives.
Best, Terry
April 7, 2007 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink