Okay, this is interesting. A couple days ago I spoke with a few House Dem strategists who are surveying the 2008 electoral landscape. They are reasonably certain that they'll have substantially more success than in the past making inroads into GOP suburban districts across the country.

Indeed, here's a target list that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has drawn up laying out what national Dems see as the key 10 vulnerable GOP House members in suburban districts:

* Connecticut 4 –- Chris Shays * Florida 13 –- Vern Buchanan * Illinois 10 –- Mark Kirk * Michigan 9 –- Joe Knollenberg * Nevada 3 –- Jon Porter * New Jersey 7 –- Mike Ferguson * Ohio 2 –- "Mean Jean" Schmidt * Ohio 15 –- Deborah Pryce * Pennsylvania 6 –- Jim Gerlach * Washington 8 –- Dave Reichert

Is this just DCCC bluster? Well, it turns out that a certain Republican agrees with the Dems on this one: Karl Rove. Compare the DCCC's list to Rove's own internal list -- revealed as part of a Congressional probe -- of what he calls "priority defense" races:

Jim Gerlach, Pennsylvania Vern Buchanan, Florida Robin Hayes, North Carolina Heather Wilson, New Mexico Marilyn Musgrave, Colorado Peter Roskam, Illinois Chris Shays, Connecticut Jean Schmidt, Ohio Thelma Drake, Virginia Barbara Cubin, Wyoming (Note: Rove also says that Cubin might not seek re-election.) John Doolittle, California Jon Porter, Nevada Jim Walsh, New York Deborah Pryce, Ohio Randy Kuhl, New York Mike Ferguson, New Jersey Joe Knollenberg, Michigan

Eight in common.

In an interview with me, the DCCC's political director, Jon Vogel, cited a bunch of reasons why he thinks the suburban electoral landscape is set to deliver more gains to Dems. Vogel's thoughts after the jump.

In the interview, Vogel laid out a bunch of reasons for this trend, including the decline of the taxes issue as a potent weapon for the GOP, gas prices and other "middle class squeeze" issues that preoccupy suburbanites, and the realization that the GOP has made a fiscal mess of the country -- "a huge issue for independent voters in suburban districts," Vogel says.

Vogel promises an intensive effort in suburban districts leading up to the 2008 elections, noting that the DCCC is already scouting for candidates to run against GOP Rep. Gerlach in Pennsylvania's sixth district.

But will such efforts allow Dem strategists to reproduce 2006's success next year? Asked if candidates who survived close calls in 2006 had in some sense inoculated themselves against a challenge in 2008, Vogel disputed the idea. He argued that it sometimes takes repeated challenges to take out an incumbent and said that the fact that Dems now control Congress allows them to shape the legislative agenda in ways that put pressure on vulnerable Republicans by forcing them into unpopular positions.

"If you look at Kentucky's third, it took a few tries to take out Anne Northup," Vogel said, adding that Dem control of Congress has "significantly helped our recruiting process. People now see that Dems can win, that people can run successful elections based on what we stand for, and that typical Republican attacks are not working. This is all very encouraging to someone who is thinking about running for Congress."

Interesting stuff. We'll be keeping you posted on all these and many other races here at Election Central.