« Rudy: Sunnis, Shiites -- What's The Difference? | Home | Election Central Morning Roundup »

McCain: Every "Sensible" Observer Favors Giving Escalation A Chance

The rollout of John McCain's "new" political strategy of aggressively arguing for pressing ahead in Iraq begins today with a McCain-authored Op-ed piece in this morning's Washington Post.

There's plenty to dig into in this piece, but I just wanted to highlight one thing. In the article McCain repeats many of his standard formulations about the hidden good news in Iraq and the alleged refusal of the press to report on it. He concludes:

There is no guarantee that we will succeed, but we must try. As every sensible observer has concluded, the consequences of failure in Iraq are so grave and so threatening for the region, and to the security of the United States, that to refuse to give Petraeus's plan a chance to succeed would constitute a tragic failure of American resolve. I hope those who cite the Iraq Study Group's conclusions note that James Baker wrote on this page last week that we must have bipartisan support for giving the new strategy time to succeed.

Never mind that many of the observers McCain surely thinks of as sensible, such as Colin Powell, the Joint Chiefs, some military commanders, and plenty of Republicans in Congress, opposed escalation completely at the outset -- and hence presumably don't think it can work, even if given a chance.

More to the point, the whole question about whether we should support giving escalation "a chance" is a big fat ruse. It's nothing but code for backing the continuation of the current policy indefinitely, with no set deadline at which we'll decide whether it's succeeded or failed, and no set of meaningful standards by which such a judgment could even be made. Is this really the course of action favored by "every sensible observer" in the United States? Who are the people McCain thinks of as "sensible observers," anyway?

Also check out McCain's assertion that James Baker wrote in the Washington Post a few days ago that escalation should be given a chance. But Baker actually argued in his piece for the implementation of the Iraq Study Group's prescriptions. While the ISG did say it could abide a short-term surge, the ISG also explicitly opposed an "open-ended" troop commitment and also called on the administration to do a bunch of other things it isn't doing now. So it's very hard indeed to read Baker's piece as support for the current strategy, which again is open-ended -- unless, of course, you're determined to read it that way.

Anyway, there's plenty here to dig into. Have fun.


33 Comments

| Leave a comment
user-pic

C'mon if you give me just one more Friedman, I promised I'll never ask for any thing again! Ever!

Really, this time I mean it. Pretty please.

user-pic

We are sensible. We support escalation. That is why we have to be dishonest, and sneaky, and lie...to convince all the other dopes that do not have sense. Dishonesty is a Republican virtue.

user-pic

.

Jonnie sez: "I went to Iraq to gain a firsthand view of the progress"

No preconceived notion there.

.

user-pic

It's a Vietnam do-over. Except this time the game will just go on until . . . forever.

user-pic

A number of blogs recently have recapped McCain's long history of flip-flopping and simply hazy thinking. I've come to the conclusion that his willingness to go with the Administration is not only because he want to be able to take on some of the Bush base & machinery, but also because he's simply like Bush. He's the scion of a semi-distinguished family (tho. one with a lower profile and less money than the Bushes) who never really got things together. Whereas Bush had a dubious conversion experience, McCain had to actually discipline himself and deal with real hell at the Hanoi Hilton. Still, he came back and had a sloppy personal life and probably wouldn't have been selected if not for establishing himself in a conservative state, having connections via Daddy, and being a war hero. In the end, he is an intellectually lazy person, who is obviously lacking a real center. Unlike Bush, he doesn't seem delusional and he has enough sense of himself that he doesn't need Dick & Karl to wind him up in the morning. Still, he lacks the center of gravity an effective politician needs to be a real leader and he doesn't seem to have the cadre of wise men that helped rather superficial but smart people like FDR and JFK quickly evolve into something more than indolent rich guys. Straight talk was ultimately a gimmick and the express drew him lots of free publicity when he didn't have much in the bank. Like Bush, he's wily, but no genius. Unlike Bush, he isn't plainly stupid and incurious, but still he isn't able to do much with what he has in terms of real direction.

It's sad that he seems to be in suicidal free fall, politically, but better that he should do this now than in the White House. That the swooning from the press seems to be receding should give us hope that some people can give up their man crushes, although perhaps not enough.

user-pic

McCain is right that, "the consequences of failure in Iraq are grave and threatening for the region, and to the security of the United States."

The problem is that we have already lost the war. I saw a very interesting interview on "Foreign Exchange with Fareed Zakaria" with Nir Rosen, author of "In the Belly of the Green Bird." He is very pessimistic. He said that much of Bagdad has already been ethnically cleansed. Essentially his point is that the "civil war" is being won by the Shia with the support of the US. The Shia militias are just biding their time waiting for the US to leave and then they will return to finish the job.

The incoherence of Bush admin foriegn policy is staggering. On one hand we have spent $2 trillion handing Iraq over to the Kurds and the Shia, the natural allies of Iran. On the other, we are ratcheting up pressure on Iran. It is a complete fiasco, and we have only begun to see the long-term consequences.

I am not enough of a foriegn policy wiz to fully understand how the US can best disengage and recover from this mess. In general, I think we should redeploy the troops; concentrate on trying to salvage the situation in Afganistan; and start using "soft power" and diplomacy to reduce tension and resentment.

What I do understand is that this FIASCO has enormous long term domestic political ramifications. My PRIMARY concern is that responibility and accountability for this disaster be laid at the feet of the Bushies, in particular, and the Repubs, in general.

This is why I support Obama. I think he is the one in the best position to hold the Repubs accountable for the war, because he has no complicity in authorizing it in the first place. I believe in the "KISS" priciple: "Keep It Simple Stupid." Obama can tell a simple story about how he had the judgemnt to oppose the war and the courage to stand up and say so. The story gets muddied and confused if either HRC or Edwards tries to tell the story.

I know my next comment is going to be very contoversial: I also think Dems need to be careful about forcing the issue too much on funding. If they succeed in cutting the funding, Repubs will lay blame for failure at the Dems door. It won't be true of course, but it will be believed by tens of millions. I know Obama took a lot of sh*t for his comment the other day about Bush's veto threat, but I think he was being realistic. I hope we can have a contructive discussion about this issue.

user-pic

What Senator McCain ignores is that it's 2007, not 2003. Many of us opposed this stupid adventure from the start, but even for those who didn't, the opportunity to correct the torrent of mistakes has passed.

It is understandable that the Senator feels that if his advice had been followed from the beginning that the result might have been different. ("Sensible observers" might well disagree.) It does not follow, however, that one can roll back the clock and begin again.

Rather than wringing his hands over what will happen if the US doesn't achieve "victory" in Iraq, he (and the rest of us) would be better served by recognizing that four years after the original mistake the only options available involve how to withdraw with the least damage to the US and to the Iraqis.

Applying coulda-shoulda-woulda reasoning to the current state of affairs is simply not a viable option.

user-pic

Every last congressperson, including McCain, knew the Iraq mess was a set-up from the start. To say different is for them to lie.

But they too, thought it would be a "slam dunk", we would get easy control of Iraq's oil, most Americans wouldn't care and the corrupt business on the capital hill would go on as usual without any political fall-out.

But the politicians were wrong. A lot of non-gullible Americans cared and the political fall-out and the exposure of so much political corruption via congresspersons has awakened Americans.

Whether those in political power are ethical enough to stand up and be counted to improve the situation is another question.

But, I wouldn't count on it.

Throw the bums out! ALL OF THEM!

You don't have to be a blind conservatiave not to see it, just an ignorant one to deny it

user-pic

Let's assume arguendo that we are "successful" in Iraq. What exactly would it achieve? A Shia dominated government that would align itself from Iran. How is that victory for the United States in any meaningful sense?

Therein lies the problem. If we win, Iran wins, and if we lose Iran wins. Consequently, under any reasonable construction of the realistic outcomes, the war is and was a mistake.

In the words of a young John Kerry when speaking about Vietnam: "How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?"

Yet that's exactly what McCain, Bush, and everyone who supports the "surge" are doing.

user-pic

Dar you say, "But the politicians were wrong."

Not all politicians had the same view. Failing to differentiate between those who were "gung ho," those who were cowardly and calculating, and those who stood up to be counted, is simplistic thinking. Worse yet, it results in a failure to hold the right people accountable for this mess.

user-pic
I know my next comment is going to be very contoversial: I also think Dems need to be careful about forcing the issue too much on funding. If they succeed in cutting the funding, Repubs will lay blame for failure at the Dems door. It won't be true of course, but it will be believed by tens of millions. I know Obama took a lot of sh*t for his comment the other day about Bush's veto threat, but I think he was being realistic. I hope we can have a contructive discussion about this issue.

I see nothing wrong with dialoguing with a no good, rotten, card-cheating chicken thief. :-)

Now that we have the pleasantries out of the way, I don't give a damn who gets blamed. I do give a damn that the bleeding ends. Every day the war continues the worse off we are not to mention the troops that Obama wants to "support." Killing and maiming people is not my idea of supporting them.

The current fiction that Democrats were blamed for ending the Vietnam War is ludicrous. Some folks might recall that LBJ got into a spot of trouble that JFK would have been in had Lee Harvey Oswald not shot the fine fellow that did more than anyone else to get us deeply involved.

It's long past time that Obama and others quit supporting the war. It doesn't matter that much that Obama was against our entry into the war when he supports continuation.

I say this as one who contributed and attended an organization meeting for Obama. I am sadly rethinking my support.

Best, Terry

user-pic

I observed that our delegation "stopped at a local market, where we spent well over an hour, shopping and talking with the local people, getting their views and ideas about different issues of the day." Markets in Baghdad have faced devastating terrorist attacks. A car bombing at Shorja in February, for example, killed 137 people. Today the market still faces occasional sniper attacks, but it is safer than it used to be.

This would be the market that 21 people were killed at later in the week?

user-pic

I repect your opinion and "feel your pain."
I too want to see the bleeding to stop.

I disagree profoundly, however, with your statement, "I don't give a damn who gets blamed." You should, and every person who cares about the future of our country should. Dems have been getting their faces beat off on national security issues for a generation. If we can hang this turkey of a war around the neck of the Repubs, that should end. Everything we care about as liberals and progressives, including the future foriegn policy of this country, depends on building a working progressive majority.

It is lazy, self-indulgent, and costly to fail to think strategically. Do the Dems have the numbers in Congress to sustain a veto? No. Do they have enough public support to sustain a cut-off of funding without be accused of undermining the troops and losing the war on terror? No.

Think back to the 1995 funding conflict between Clinton and the Congressional Repubs. Clinton won that showdown hands-down and that didn't involve troops under fire.

Obama has suggested funding the troops for four months. That seems like a resonable solution while we work to build support for a cut-off. Let's build the pressure under the Repubs facing re-election next fall. Let's let the facts on the ground show that the surge is not going to work. It pisses me off that we continue to waste lives and waste money, but I don't see any short term alternative. If you do, explain to me how it would work.

user-pic
I disagree profoundly, however, with your statement, "I don't give a damn who gets blamed." You should, and every person who cares about the future of our country should.

There, see I knew you were a lazy, no good, chicken thief.

What would this country have been like, you think, if Eugene McCarthy had been the nominee of the Democrats instead of Hubert Humphrey?

There was a time when the Democrats had become so dominant that there was talk of needing a new party because the Republicans were never likely to be able to win again.

Hubert Humphrey threw everything away by doing the wrong thing. When JFK beat Humphrey for the nomination, the die was cast. Vietnam was going to be the monster I had forecast it would be because I had been there. Humphrey turned around and became a puppy dog for LBJ, peddling the war in every corner of the land. His compromise on principal got him...?

Oddly enough it is often best to do the right thing instead of the popular thing.

Take care.

Best, Terry

user-pic

I agree with the apt assessment except that I confess that I do not find his freefall sad. Pathetic perhaps, but not sad. I am very greatly relieved that he will not be President.

global citizen

user-pic

When my son deployed to Iraq in Nov. '04 with the Marine Corps to fight in the battle to clear insurgents out of Fallujah, we were all told that "the next six months" were going to be crucial, because the Iraqis were going to vote.

When he deployed in Jan. '06, we were all told that "the next six months" were crucial because a government was being established.

The first thing my son talked about when he called on sat phones from rooftops watching for snipers or huddled around a campfire, he said that the most discouraging thing about the deployment was that it seemed "Fallujah is as bad as it was before we went in," because all the insurgents who'd fled to outlying areas had only crept back into the beleagured city.

Three weeks into his deployment, the mosque at Samarra was bombed, and he and the Marines in the Anbar fought for their lives for seven miserable months, and my son came home angry because he felt as if their fight and their losses "has all been a waste." All they were doing was "going out every day and waiting to get blown up."

My nephew had similar observations in HIS three deployments to Iraq with the Marines. And "the next six months" were always crucial.

Now, another beloved nephew has just deployed to Baghdad with the army, and hey! Guess what!

THE NEXT SIX MONTHS ARE CRUCIAL.

I don't give a damn what John McCain says anymore because he flat-out lied when he pretended that things were better because he could stroll through a marketplace.

I don't know a single Marine who has had the luxury of STROLLING anywhere in that godforsaken country.

And now, thanks to this miserable escalation, my son's unit orders have been changed, to go back a FOURTH time (thankfully, he'll be out by then, if they let him)--and he's calling me in despair, wanting to know what the Democrats are doing to end this bloodbath and get his buddies out of that meatgrinder.

I cannot describe the rage I feel whenever I see Bush and anyone backing him using troops as some kind of stage-prop, talking about how the next six months are crucial and we should "support the troops."

The threatened chaos IS ALREADY HAPPENING, and our men and women are just caught in the crossfire. I don't mind a phased redeployment and benchmarks for the Iraqi govt., but the truth is that the military CAN'T stay much longer because they're stretched to the breaking point.

We can support them all by getting them the hell out of there and rewarding the politicians who pray to the god of patriotism by throwing them out of office or not electing them in the first place.

user-pic

You make it sound like an either/or situation; either we do the right thing, or we do the popular thing. My point is that we don't have the support or the power to cut off funding at this point. We can't do the right thing. We have to build support.

PS. First time I have been called a 'chicken thief'.

user-pic

Very moving post. I have a nephew deployed right now. I hope we can bring them back soon.

Your point about the military being near the breaking point is very important.

Thanks for your post.

user-pic

Shorter McCain: If you don't agree with me, you're not a sensible person.

user-pic

I think you're both wrong (man, triangulation is fun).

Vietnam analogies aside, we, of course, have to care about the blame game on Iraq. There is always another election coming up.

But our primary concern should be to mitigate the damage to our country and world. If we start down the calculation route the Bushies will be able to back us into a corner, to them victory is always a Friedman away. Luckily the activists are going to keep all of the Democratic candidates honest on this one.

user-pic

McCain has always been a phony.

Looks like the "We could have won in Vietnam" strategy. If only we had marched in with a million-man army and turned Iraq into a concentration camp...

The road from the Airport has been under 24/7 intensive security clamp-down for more than a year. You can't claim this is something the last month has changed:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/12/10/wirq10.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/12/10/ixnewstop.html

If he wasn't a lying sack of shit he'd be discussing how classic insurgency strategy dictates moving away from wherever the occupation force is concentrating.

Attacks elsewhere have skyrocketed and McCain is a braying jackass.

user-pic
We can't do the right thing. We have to build support.

By doing a bad thing?

Well I guess you do have a point that people admire those doing wrong.

I belong to a quirky religion that thinks it's good to do good. All other religions believe it is good to do bad. They have all the fun, money, members. I am all alone in my church. As JFK said, "Life isn't fair."

PS. First time I have been called a 'chicken thief'.

We got to be called baby killers. That is even badder. Which is why people became jealous and hated us so. Ask John Kerry. John McCain still hasn't figured it out. Man, that's some slow.

Best, Terry

user-pic

You know what I meant. We do not have the means, at present, to affect the desired change.

As we used to say back in my community organizing days,
"Don't Mourn Organize."

user-pic
You know what I meant.

Sure.

I know what you meant.

Not good to be on the losing side.

As Rep. Obey might have said if he was given to cliches, "Go along to get along."

Screw those idiot liberals. They are always wanting to do things that can't be done.

"Winning isn't everything, it's all there is," said a revered coach who won two Super Bowls. Nobody much can remember who he was or why he was so important.

As we used to say back in my community organizing days, "Don't Mourn Organize."

Tell you, friend, I just don't see what good it does to be on the winning side when the winning side is killing people and making people hate this country. In what way does that help?

Maybe you can explain how that can be. I am kinda dumb about these things as you can tell.

How can you lead when all you do is follow the bad guys?

My wife is always asking why we can't ever vote for anybody that wins. I ask her if she wants to be responsible for all the bad in the world. Then we both vote for the losers again. [sigh]

Best, Terry

user-pic

Apparently, some law was passed several years ago that made it MANDATORY for those in, or running for, office. to lie to the American people. I remember a time when it was an exception, rather than the common practice.
So goes the fall of a once great democracy...

user-pic

"Tell you, friend, I just don't see what good it does to be on the winning side when the winning side is killing people and making people hate this country. In what way does that help?"

I must say I disagree with your premise. You seem to suggest that the Dems bear equal responsibility for the killing because they have been unable to stop it since they took control in January.

I think the issue is the difference between "nominal control" and "effective control." With their 50-49 majority in the Senate they have nominal control, but they do not have effective control. They would not have even been able to pass what they have without votes from a couple of the Repub defectors.

It is easy to fault their timidity, but Congress is almost always timid. I believe the Dems even with large majorities were not able to start challenging Nixon on appropriations until '72 or '73 (I was just a kid at the time).

As I said a couple of posts ago, the Repubs have been beating the face off the Dems on national security issues for a generation. Karl Rove is a "fearmonger extrordinaire." After what they did to Max Cleland and a few others, it is not surprising that the Dems are timid.

I think it gets down to a choice; we can blame the Dems for not speaking out more and not doing more, or we can put the blame on the Repubs and try to elect more good Dems so we can gain effective control. I obviously support the latter coarse.

I was a flaming radical in the late seventies early eighties. After spending a year in Peru, seeing thousands of kids die of diarrhea and malnourishment because of IMF stabilization policies, I came beck ready to lead the revolution. Sometimes it shocks me how pragmatic I am getting in my middle years. Don't know if I am getting wise or just getting tired. I have had enough of lost causes and good causes and just want to be effective.

user-pic
the consequences of failure in Iraq are so grave and so threatening for the region, and to the security of the United States

Stop right there. I'm sick of this flawed conventional wisdom. I hear this from Republicans and DEMOCRATS alike all the time. It's false. Nobody knows what will happen when we leave. Murtha is right when he says our presence in Iraq makes the insurgency worse. General Odom is right when he says the situation has gotten worse every year we've been there. Iraq is so bad now how much worse could it get? Chances are the sooner we leave the sooner the insurgency will die off. The SCIRI and DAWA puppets we're backing will finally have to compromise with the Sunnis and Sadrites or do what I suspect they'll do anyway, take the millions they've skimmed and bolt to Tehren or London. Like it or not most Iraqis are going to take our departure as a huge victory over the occupier complete with dancing in the street. If you see this as a humiliation for the US then you must be a lunatic like George Bush and John McCain. We expect no better from these clowns but every time we hear some pundit or Dem politician mouth those words we ought to go after them.

user-pic

Shorter McCain: If you don't agree with me, you're not a sensible person.

The sad thing is shorter Saint John McCain stole that theme from shorter Dave *the Dean* Broder.

user-pic

You certainly have a point that no body knows what the ramifications will be.

You have another when you say that things are getting worse rather than better.

That being said, I don't think you can easily dismiss the fact that "US defeat" or failure to achieve a stable semi-democratic Iraq has some likely very undesirable consequences:

1) increased Sunni Shia conflict across the Islamic world;

2) emboldening the clerics and the conservatives in Iran;

3) reduce the deterrant effect of the US military and thus weaken US diplomatic leverage for many years to come;

4)increase the likelihood of conflict between Turkey and the Kurds;

5)further isolate Isreal;

I am not a fan of US unilateralism and I don't necessarily see the US as a positive force in the world. Too frequently US foriegn policy is about US hegemony and about the interests of US multinationals. OTOH I am not sure that a weakened, chastened US is necessarily good for the world either.

Bottom line, we are going to find out because "failure" is inevitable at this point, and the military can only be stretched so far regardless of whether Bush continues to deny reality.

user-pic

"How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?"

Yet that's exactly what McCain, Bush, and everyone who supports the "surge" are doing."

Actually, they have no plans of asking anyone to be the last man to die for their mistake - any particular soldier will just be another in an endless line of them who'll die for this. Then Bush et al. will punt on the whole Iraq thing by Jan 2009 - it won't be his problem after that.

In McCain's case, he hopes to punt on it by Jan 2017, which is only, what, 19 F.U.'s away now? I'm sure his reasoning is that the next 5 years is critical and will determine whether or not we'll need to wait another 5 years after that before even considering leaving.

user-pic

"OTOH I am not sure that a weakened, chastened US is necessarily good for the world either."

Well stated, upper left, yet isn't it sad that we have to link "chastened" with "weakened". If we could somehow gather the maturity to chasten ourselves, officially and publicly, led perhaps by some honest politician with the courage to say to the world "we're sorry, we're deeply and genuinely sorry; we got scared and lazy and allowed our better selves to be trampled upon by a group of arrogant, deceitful and reckless men" – and then did everything we could to regain both the world's respect and our own – well, who knows, perhaps we'd emerge from our great sin stronger, not weaker.

Ah, but who am I kidding with such naivety. I fear the worst.

---

Great thread tonite, thanks for all the heartfelt, provocative and nuanced thoughts.

user-pic

ULC if you really suspect our military presence in Iraq makes those possibilities less likely then why support anything but perpetual US occupation of Iraq? Sure everybody from George Bush to Muqtada Sadr will call it a "US defeat" but that kind of thinking is just falling for the Republican meme that "failure" in Iraq is the left's fault.

Please read this and let me know what you think. Sometimes the conventonal wisdom is garbage.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/1/19/133610/922

user-pic

Has McCain forgotten that Bush replaced EVERY high ranking military person that opposed or questioned his "surge"? Of course every sock puppet supports the BS Administration talking points! The liers dish it out and no one calls them on it - Cheney's lies on Rush, Bush refusing to fund the troops, the AG Department, $9 billion cash "lost", attacks on Pelosi,attacks on "patriots", roaring deficits, oil and pharma industry "gifts" . . . like a 25 Cent Whore during Fleet Week, I think we've been f**ked enough . . .

Leave a comment

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address