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Election Central Debate Roundup

SUSA Poll: Obama The Big Winner Of The Debate — And Gravel The Big Loser
A SurveyUSA poll taken last night of debate watchers in South Carolina shows Barack Obama as the big winner, with 31% saying he won the night. Hillary Clinton followed with 24%, and John Edwards at 14%. No other candidate broke 10 points. Mike Gravel can walk away with an honor of sorts: 17% said he was one who lost at the debate, ahead of any other candidate.

The Guardian: Hillary The Winner
The Guardian's correspondent thinks it's an easy call for who benefitted the most from the debate last night. "Hillary Clinton emerged as the clear winner from the first debate between the Democratic candidates in the 2008 presidential race - ahead of her main rival Barack Obama - according to those present in the audience," he writes. "She appeared to be the most comfortable of the eight runners in the 90-minute televised debate from the South Carolina university campus as she dealt with a series of questions ranging from how she would handle another terrorist attack on the US to her vote in 2002 backing the invasion of Iraq."

Hillary Tacitly Owns Up To Iraq Mistake
In last night's debate, Hillary Clinton all but admitted that her stance in 2002 regarding Iraq was a mistake. As quoted in USA Today, Clinton responded that one of her biggest mistakes was, "Believing the president when he said he would go to the United Nations and put inspectors into Iraq to determine whether they had WMD." On the other hand, John Edwards was far more blunt in answering the same question, "I was wrong to vote for this war. Unfortunately, I'll have to live with that forever."

Clyburn: The Top Candidates Did Okay, Second-Tier Benefitted
House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, arguably South Carolina's most important Democrat, gave a generally favorable review to the top three candates, and a compliment to the second tier. Clyburn told The State, "I don’t think any of the top tier candidates did themselves any harm, and I think the second tier candidates did themselves a lot of good."

Biden Wins Applause For Simple "Yes" Answer
Joe Biden's simple, humorous answer to whether he posesses the self-discipline needed to behave on the world stage, and to control his usual verbosity — "Yes" — was noticed by sources ranging from the non-partisan Chuck Todd to even the right-wing TownHall.com, which praised him for having "the best 'one-liner'" of the debate.

Obama Addresses Israel-Palestine Question
The Chicago Tribune notes that Barack Obama addressed a recent remark that some viewed as overly sympathetic to Palestinians, and not enough to Israeli victims of terrorism. "What I said is, nobody has suffered more than the Palestinian people from the failure of the Palestinian leadership to recognize Israel, to renounce violence and to get serious about negotiating peace and security for the region."

Right Wing May Hit Obama Over Terrorist-Attack Question
National Review's Byron York gives a hint of how Republicans could attack Barack Obama over his answer to a question about how the country's military stance would change in case of another terrorist attack at home. Obama's answer focused first on emergency response for the victims, followed by the use of intelligence networks to "take potentially some action to dismantle that network." York's verdict: "Obama’s answer to a question of how, as commander-in-chief, he would change America’s 'military stance' in response to an attack by al Qaeda did not involve using the military."

Yepsen: Debate Helpful To Second-Tier Candidates
The Des Moines Registers's David Yepsen said the real victories in last night's debate belonged to the second tier. "The back of the pack candidates - Chris Dodd, Joseph Biden and Bill Richardson - did themselves more good than front-runners Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards," Yepsen writes. "Dodd looked and sounded the most presidential. Biden used a little humor to knock down his image as a windbag. Richardson, who seemed to have trouble hearing, was good on foreign policy questions."

WaPo: Kucinich And Gravel Made The Others Look Stronger By Comparison
The Washington Post asserts that the top six candidates at last night's debate — Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Richardson, Biden and Dodd — were able to benefit from the presence of the two left-wing stragglers, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel, simply by virtue of looking better on defense by standing next to them. "The challenges from the liberal flank allowed almost all the others to assert that, despite their criticisms of President Bush's Iraq policy, they are ready to use military force to retaliate against future terrorist attacks."


18 Comments

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I think all these analyses have merit. I was very impressed with the second-tier candidates, but not at all surprised by their performances. We have an exceptionally strong field.

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Ah snap polls, 30 second rebuttals, and issues broken down by a show of hands.

Yep, the uninformed American voter was the real winner last night.

Tune in to the next debate, where each candidate will have 4 minutes to perform a Stevie Wonder song of their choosing. On the next...American Candidate.

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I don't get what was wrong with Senator Obama thinking about US first! I don't understand why some people think he flubbed the question. This is who he is, he is compassionate, thoughtful and the American people are his first and foremost concern. Bombs away is how we got into Iraq.

I thought he was nervous but he hit his groove.

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I think much of the "analysis" by the pundits and the blogospheric wanna-bees is complete hooey. Debates tend to confirm peoples pre-existing positions. Over at MyDD people are parsing every statement for signs of inadequate political correctness. What is the point?

What matters is the general impressions created in the minds of the voters, and any significant gaffes. Obama seems to have done best in the online poll and the SUSA poll. That is what matters. None of the big three had any major gaffes.

Personally, I thought Edwards and Obama were the best. But then I thought they were the best going in. I thought HRC was competent but highly scripted. I was disappointed with Richardson. The rest don't matter, except as window dressing.

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That USA poll had some interesting numbers.

It shows Hillary and Obama neck and neck with the females and over 35 group for winning the debate. Obama won the male voters and black voters.

 Yet, Clinton and Edwards were neck and neck among white voters and Kucinich received 81% of the Hispanic vote as the winner. Obama and Edwards lost the Hispanic vote to Clinton when it came to winning the debate, interesting when Hillary also had the highest number of hispanics who said she lost the debate.

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RE the predictable angle NR is taking on Obama's answer to the domestic terrorist attack question ... what's new? Given the kinds of "arguments" that publication has been advancing lately, Obama could have promised to decimate half the ME within 24 hours and they would have called him wrong ("and what about the other half, Barack Hussein Obama? too weak to blow up the whole enchilada?"

That's sad, because I was oddly comforted by his response - it struck me as more intuitive than political (especially compared to the other candidates) and certainly more along the lines of what I would want my national leader thinking if such a tragedy were ever to rear its ugly head.

Of COURSE the "right" answer was that "I would take swift and decicive military action." And Edwards and Hillary got it right right away.

But if this were actually happening in the REAL WORLD (as opposed to in the vaccuum of Washington political punditry and debate), how many Americans of any political persuasion - especially after Iraq - really want our president dashing to put his/her finger on that big red button FIRST, before having and acting on the other things Obama listed? If my city were bombed, gassed or attacked in some other horrible way that put me and my loved ones in grave danger, in that immediate moment I want my leader getting us the hell outta there, not using the suffering and anger of his or her fellow Americans (justified anger, of course)to start a war too quickly, regardless of evidence, possibly leading to more unneccessary bloodshed.

The Bush administration has made this mistake in spades. Their obsession with "evil" terrorists (and often a perception that Islam itself is inherently evil) took them straight to the killing fields every time - and the disgusting bumbling after Katrina was the inevitable result. Had our president actually had a post-attack process in mind instead of just an end result, thousands of American lives would have been spared - in New Orleans, in Iraq, and likely in Afghanistan, too.

Why do we keep letting the maniacal hawkishness of the right wing fringe get in the way of our own common sense?

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Of COURSE the "right" answer was that "I would take swift and decicive military action." And Edwards and Hillary got it right right away.

Actually, this is the wrong answer. Our debacle in Iraq should have taught us that. Hillary and Edwards basically said they would make the same mistake Bush has, which matches their AUMF votes. They have learned nothing. Even though Hillary wants to say, if she knew then what she knows now, she would vote differently it is a LIE. She is a warhawk. She would retaliate just like she said and bogg us down in another friggin war.

Only Obama gave the right answer to solving global terrorism. That is to secure our nation, protect Americans..use intelligence to determine the target and then use diplomacy first. There are NO military options to defeat terrorism.

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Actually, the quotation marks around "right" were intended to denote sarcasm; I absolutely do NOT think that dumb, almost random retaliation is the proper response to this kind of situation.

My point was that it was the "right" answer according to the pundits,, whose ongoing meme has been that Democrats are pathetic weaklings who don't have the heart to swat a fly. It is the answer they were looking for, so that they could spend the post-debate "analysis" (there go those quotation marks again!)blabbering on about how so-and-so tried to establish their "national security credibility" ... as if actually trying to find the right culprits and actually fix the problem were not the truly responsible and credible thing to do as CIC.

I'm on your side here. Obama's answer was 100% correct - and a perfect example of the kind of thinking I'm looking for in a national leader. Its too bad our dangerously right-leaning establishment makes it so damned hard for Joe Schmoe to see the forest for the trees sometimes....

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I must add Chris Matthews came to his defense against dumb (Joe Scarborough) and dummber (Pat Buchanan). He said we can't just BOMB just for the sake of BOMBING! We must know for sure where they are. etc.. etc...

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I don't get what was wrong with Senator Obama thinking about US first!

Probably, because there are an awful lot of 'bring it on' mentality folks out there writing columns who much prefered Hillary's 'the warhawk' response of 'retaliate'.

Obama chose to focus on all that needed to be done to secure the nationa and respond appropriately. Many Americans are no longer use to intelligence and competence when it comes to handling national or foreign affairs. They would rather fight then figure out what the target is first.

The key things these pundits are overlooking is that Obama is saying that a military response to terrorism is ineffective, as our long drawn out war in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown. He has repeatedly stated that global terrorism requires robust diplomacy and foreign policy changes in order to win it.

Warhawks, miss that critical point.

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Yes, but those numbers include Republicans, which makes them pretty meaningless for a Democratic primary.

If you look at party affiliation, Hillary and Obama were in a virtual dead heat among Democrats, while Obama was up 3-1 among Independents. Obama also led Clinton among Republicans, but by a smaller margin.

Curiously, Edwards did better among Independents and Republicans -- where he tied Obama -- than among Democrats.

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OK,  good points.

 The graph is too wide for me to see the Party Affliation and candidate column simultaneously.

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Actually, the quotation marks around "right" were intended to denote sarcasm; I absolutely do NOT think that dumb, almost random retaliation is the proper response to this kind of situation.

OK, sorry for the misread, I thought the quotes were with regard to you co-signing the pundits thinking. Not you being sarcastic. I apologize and:

GOOD ANSWER!!!!

. Obama's answer was 100% correct - and a perfect example of the kind of thinking I'm looking for in a national leader. Its too bad our dangerously right-leaning establishment makes it so damned hard for Joe Schmoe to see the forest for the trees sometimes....

Ditto!!

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And among self-described "liberals", Hillary had an edge over Obama.

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This is a little picky, but I wonder if the debate watchers for this debate is an accurate sample of Dem primary voters. NONE of my friends who vote in Dem primaries watched the debate. I didn't (4:30 is working time for me).

It just so happens that myself and people I mentioned are least excited about Obama. Perhaps another question that should have been asked is "Before the debate, whom did you support". My haunch is that it's the freshman senator from IL, but that's just my haunch.

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SUSA was a survey of SC voters. SC does not have party identification, so respondents were asked to self identify.

gqmartinez, you and I are among the most frequent posters here. You have made no secret of the fact that you are a not a big fan of Obama, but I have never really heard you lay out an analysis of why you dislike him other than generic criticism about "experience" and a distaste for his rhetoric.

I would be interested to understand your position. Do you think Obama would be a weak nominee? If so why? Do you object to his ideology, or is your concern that he is not up to the actual job of being President?

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"Curiously, Edwards did better among Independents and Republicans -- where he tied Obama -- than among Democrats."

This is not curious at all. This is part of an interesting phenomia that is not being discussed. Many in the online world think of Edwards as being ideologically positioned on the left of the big three Dems. But most of his support in 2004, and up to this point in 2008, is based on older and rural Dems, who are in fact more conservative.

I believe this points out that "brand" is more important than ideology. Edwards brand is as a southern, white male from a working class background. In a race with a woman, who has been lionized and hated for being a liberal, and with an African American, anti-war candidate, who has natural appeal to the professional class and to youth voters, it is not surprising that JE's natural base is with older and more conservative and more rural voters.

The trick for JE is to try to hang on to that base while trying to court more left leaning voters. It isn't going to be easy.

I think many in the netroots misunderstand the situation. Edwards is forced by the dynamics of the three way race to try to position himself on the left. Obama because he is trying to break the color barrier and avoid being tagged as unelectable has to try to position himself more to the center. In reality, I don't think there is much difference between how the two would actually govern.

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I think many in the netroots misunderstand the situation. Edwards is forced by the dynamics of the three way race to try to position himself on the left. Obama because he is trying to break the color barrier and avoid being tagged as unelectable has to try to position himself more to the center. In reality, I don't think there is much difference between how the two would actually govern.

I do.

I think polls show more than any discussion between us would that Obama needs to make an opening to the minority vote rather than worrying about any color barrier.

The one that has a problem with perception is Edwards as the wealthy class action lawyer.

The "conservative rural Democrats" that I am familiar with are not conservative by a long shot. If anything populism is a grabber for them.

Stereotyping does not always work well, my friend, nor does the assumption of positioning in this Day of the Spin Doctor.

Best, Terry

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