Iowa GOP Hosts The Candidates Tonight
The Des Moines Register reports that a whopping 10 candidates will speak at tonight Iowa Republican Party's annual spring fundraiser: Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Duncan Hunter, Mike Huckabee, Tom Tancredo, Jim Gimore, Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson and John McCain, plus longshot candidate John Cox, a businessman from Chicago. About 1,000 top Republican activists in the state are expected to attend the dinner, where the committed one will show their support and the uncommitted will be wooed by the candidates. "It will be like a mini straw poll," said Iowa Republican Party executive director Chuck Laudner.

Breaux Will Not Run For Governor Of Louisiana
The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that former Senator John Breaux (D-LA) will not run for Governor, after Democratic state ATtorney General Charles Foti declined to issue an advisory opinion on whether or not Breaux — who has worked in Washington as a lobbyist since leaving the Senate two years ago — would be eligible under the state's residency requirement. This currently leaves Democrats without a major candidate against GOP Congressman and 2003 nominee Bobby Jindal.

CBS Poll: Hillary, Rudy Expand Leads
A new CBS News poll finds Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani expanding their national leads in their respective primary fields. On the Republican side, Giuliani leads with an astonishing 47%, followed by John McCain with a distant 25%, and Mitt Romney at 10%. On the Dem side, Hillary Clinton has 39%, with Barack Obama and John Edwards fighting it out for second place. Obama has 24%, and Edwards 21%.

Huckabee: GOP Support For Iraq War Could Dry Up
The Des Moines Register reports that Mike Huckabee said yesterday at a stop in Iowa that Republican support for President Bush's war policies could wither between now and the Iowa caucuses if things do not improve. "I think we've always got to be re-evaluating where the country is," Huckabee told the Register. "If things are not really improving at that point, then, you bet, it requires all of us to rethink it."

Hillary Rolls Out Government Reform Plan
Hillary Clinton unveiled a 10-point government reform plan yestersday, saying, "This is a plan to enhance accountability and transparency and make government more efficient and effective for taxpayers." Included are proposals to reform the government contracting process, expand voting access, and strengthen protections for government whistleblowers.

Could Rudy In a Dress Damage His Chances?
The Associated Press speculates on whether Rudy Giuliani's old gimmick as Mayor of New York City of frequently appearing in drag could damage his chances with conservative primary voters. Neal Thigpen, a political science professor at South Carolina's Francis Marion University, said, "People think of him as a leader and a tough guy, and he has this image as somebody who tamed the city of New York and made the trains run on time, and seeing him dressed up like a girl would run contrary to all of those things."

Corzine Stable — Rarely Buckled Up
The Newark Star-Ledger reports that Governor Jon Corzine (D-NJ) is stable after follow-up surgery for severe injuries sustained in a car accident on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Ledger also reports that aides to Corzine admit he rarely wore his seatbelt and would brush off suggestions that he do so — and everyone else in the car escaped with only minor injuries. Corzine chief of staff John Shea admitted that if an investigation showed the Governor was not buckled up, "We would certainly expect and encourage the State Police to issue a citation to him."

Bloomberg News reports:

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic Senator James Webb accused Republican John McCain of questioning the patriotism of those who disagree with him on Iraq and "hiding behind the troops as political justification" for a misguided policy.

"I think that John McCain has been impugning people's patriotism and I really regret that he is doing that," Webb, of Virginia, said on Bloomberg Television's "Political Capital with Al Hunt," scheduled to air today. "I'm very disappointed in him."

Webb appears to be reacting to some remarks McCain made during his big Iraq speech, in which he opined that "in Iraq, only our enemies were cheering" when the House Dems passed their Iraq supplemental bill mandating withdrawal.

Even better, Webb goes on to accuse McCain of breaking a personal appeal he says McCain made to him some time ago:

In the television interview, Webb said McCain had approached him on the Senate floor and said lawmakers should avoid the type of personal attacks that occurred during congressional debates about the Vietnam War 30 years ago.

Since that conversation, Webb said McCain has been "consistently" attacking those who disagree with him about the war.

"I don't believe it is in anybody's interest for members of the Senate to be impugning the other side's patriotism or, by the way, hiding behind the troops as political justification for what we are doing," said Webb, a former U.S. Marine.

Leave it to Webb. It'll be interesting to see how the McCain camp handles this one.

Woah. Who raised the most cash online this quarter? Obama? Hillary? Nope -- Mitt Romney, of all candidates. CNN is reporting right now that Romney's campaign has crunched their numbers and announced that it raised a startling $7.2 million online, besting Obama ($6.9 million) and Hillary ($4.2 million). Who would have thought?

Check out this little tidbit in that Politicker item I linked to below about Barack Obama's big foreign policy speech planned for Tuesday. The item quotes Obama foreign policy adviser Samantha Power as follows:

Power also contrasted what she said was Obama's effort to look forward with the foreign policy attitudes of his Democratic rivals John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, who she suggested was stuck in a 1990s view of the world, when American influence was much greater.

"Edwards is less prone to this than Hillary," she said, adding "Let's be clear, those tools that we got away with by the skin of our teeth are not the tools that are going to work in the 21st century."

That's actually a pretty sharp criticism of Hillary, and a jab (though a softer one) at Edwards, too. There's nothing wrong with that, of course -- vigorous debate about foreign policy ideas should be part of the campaign, natch -- but it's worth noting that the last time an Obama adviser publicly criticized Hillary, her campaign went ballistic. Wonder if they'll respond to this one.

Update: Interestingly, Power is clarifying that her remarks about Hillary and Edwards don't represent the views of the Obama campaign. The Politicker has added the following update:

Samantha Power asked me to clarify that her comments about Clinton and Edwards are her personal opinion as a professor of US foreign policy, and that she was not speaking in her capacity as an advisor to the Obama campaign.

GOP Senator Susan Collins is considered a key target by national Dems sizing up the 2008 elections, but at least one Democrat (of sorts) will be helping Collins play defense: Joe Lieberman. From the Associated Press:

Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman said he is endorsing Sen. Susan Collins in her 2008 re-election bid and will campaign on her behalf.

Lieberman, a former Democrat turned independent, is returning the favor to Collins, a Republican who supported and campaigned for him in his 2006 election in Connecticut...

Lieberman told the National Journal's "CongressDaily" on Thursday that he is ready to support Collins even though he doesn't know who the Democratic nominee will be. He said his political action committee has contributed $5,000 toward Collins' campaign.

Over at The Horse's Mouth, we've been hammering away at the bizarre decision by Fred Hiatt to publish an Op-ed piece by Liz Cheney attacking Nancy Pelosi without noting that Ms. Cheney is the daughter of the Veep, one of Pelosi's leading antagonists. But now we've found an amusing postcript that neatly highlights this whole affair's absurdity. Check it out.

An interesting dynamic in the Presidential race: John McCain and John Edwards now are quite transparently attacking each other in order to appeal to their respective bases. Two days ago, Edwards hit McCain's stance on the war, saying that "the people playing politics with Iraq are Senator McCain and President Bush, and they should be ashamed of themselves" — language clearly designed to appeal to antiwar Dem primary voters who dislike McCain.

Now McCain has just fired back at Edwards via his spokesman, Danny Diaz — and also in terms designed to link an attack on the individual to their party as a whole. "If John Edwards believes America can't win the war in Iraq, he should convince his Democratic counterparts, including Sens. Obama and Clinton to immediately cut off funding for the war and bring the troops home," Diaz said. The use of the familiar talking points that Dems should either cut funding or pipe down is just as transparently designed to appeal to the GOP base voters McCain has been struggling to connect with of late.

Update: John Edwards' camp has just put out a press release striking back at McCain:

THE SURGE HAS FAILED

Chapel Hill, North Carolina - Senator John Edwards released the following statement today in response to criticism from the McCain campaign about his policy on ending the war in Iraq.

"The McCain Doctrine of escalation has failed, and the bombing of the Iraqi embassy within the green zone makes that all too clear.

"John McCain is just wrong; it is time for America to start leaving Iraq.

"But he's right about one thing - Congress should use its funding authority to end this war and bring our troops home."

John Edwards has just called for Paul Wolfowitz to resign over the revelations involving Wolfowitz and his girlfriend, a World Bank employee. Key quote from Edwards' statement:

"Unfortunately, Wolfowitz's tenure at the World Bank has been marked by some of the failures as his term managing the war in Iraq -- cronyism and rhetoric that does not match reality -- and now serious questions of financial integrity that have alarmed our allies.

"America's ability to lead in the fight against global poverty is undermined with Paul Wolfowitz at the helm of the World Bank. He should resign. We have to restore America's credibility and moral leadership in order to convincingly make the case for global anti-poverty investments that are both strategically smart and morally correct."

Barack Obama is set to deliver what his aides are billing as a major foreign policy address on Tuesday, The Politicker reports.

Apparently, drafts of the speech call for a return to "legitimacy and competence" as the keys to America's ability to rebuild its global standing.

"Drafts of the major address," The Politicker says, "argue that `respect' is the essential currency in conducting effective foreign policy, and that the foreign policy blunders and embarrassments of the Bush administration have weakened the nation's hand in influencing world affairs."

A couple things to keep an eye out for. First, look out for wingers to go crazy over the idea that America should be "respected" in the world. Second, watch out for press coverage that casts this as nothing more than an effort to deflate the phony "Obama lacks substance" line. It'll also be interesting to see how commentators handle the comparison between Obama and Hillary, who's presumed to be dominant in the area of foreign policy experience. Tune in Tuesday.

The confirmation of Rudy's breakdown of fundraising numbers is in: Of the $15.5 million Rudy raised in the past quarter, roughly $11 million is for the primary. His campaign had 28,000 contributors, 64% of whom gave less than $100. Rudy's $11 million in primary cash almost equals the total raised by his chief rival, John McCain, who hauled in $12.5 million.

There's been a bit of debate in the blogosphere over whether this appearance by Barack Obama on Fox News meant that he'd granted an interview to the liberal-targeted network only days after the candidates had all pulled out of the Fox/Congressional Black Caucus debate.

MyDD's Matt Stoller yesterday said he had, and went on to accuse Obama of ending the "Fox News freeze out." But then he updated by linking to this and saying that in fact it had been a "general press conference." On the other hand, Media Bistro said based on unclear sourcing that it had been an interview.

So we checked in with the Obama campaign. They told us that, yes, it was an interview:

It was with Fox alone -- he did a series of interviews with cable and broadcast networks following McCain’s mention of him in his Iraq speech.

Just doing this to clarify the record. We report, you decide, and all that.

There's been a bit of debate in the blogosphere over whether this appearance by Barack Obama on Fox News meant that he'd granted an interview to the liberal-targeted network only days after the candidates had all pulled out of the Fox/Congressional Black Caucus debate.

MyDD's Matt Stoller yesterday said he had, and went on to accuse Obama of ending the "Fox News freeze out." But then he linked to this and said that in fact it had been a "general press conference." On the other hand, Media Bistro said that it had been an interview.

So we checked in with the Obama campaign. They told us that, yes, it was an interview:

It was with Fox alone -- he did a series of interviews with cable and broadcast networks following McCain’s mention of him in his Iraq speech.

We report, you decide.

The DCCC is going up on the air with a second radio ad targeting New Mexico GOP Rep. Heather Wilson for her role in the Attorney Purge. You can listen to it here.

Transcript:

In Washington Alberto Gonzales, the Attorney General of the United States, is testifying under oath about his role in the firing of U.S. Attorneys.

But here in New Mexico, no one is getting the truth about Heather Wilson’s involvement in the scandal.

Wilson said a constituent’s complaint led her to call Republican U.S. Attorney David Iglesias about an ongoing federal corruption investigation.

But Heather Wilson won’t identify the constituent … she still refuses to release her phone records … and many important questions remain unanswered.

In Washington Attorney General Gonzales is being asked to tell the truth …

Isn’t it time we asked Heather Wilson to tell the truth in New Mexico?

Check the facts at www dot Heather Wilson watch dot com.

The ad reflects the belief among Dem strategists that -- contrary to some pundits who think corruption has run its course as a potent political issue -- the Attorney Purge has created a political environment in which corruption could indeed drive voters in 2008, just as it did in 2006.

The ad started running this morning during drive time in Albuquerque and will run through Tuesday -- that is, the day Alberto Gonzales is scheduled to testify. The earlier ad is here.

Romney Jokes About Hunting Gaffe
The Boston Globe reports that Mitt Romney joked about his recent claim to have been a lifelong hunter — despite having gone on only two hunting trips plus, in his own words, shooting "small varmints — at a Republican dinner in Texas. Romney held up a "trophy" of a squeaking toy squirrel mounted on a piece of wood, declaring, "I want you to know that those small animals can be ferocious," and saying the toy's squeak was ""the sound I heard just before I let it have it."

Centrist House Dem Endorses Obama
The Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports that Congressman Adam Smith (D-WA), a key House New Democrat and organizer of John Kerry's Washinton state campaign in 2003 and 2004, is backing Barack Obama and will keynote a Seattle "Meetup For Obama" on April 28.

Romney Playing Down Health Care
The Associated Press notes that Mitt Romney is playing up his social conservatism and playing down what was actually his greatest accomplishment as Governor of Massachusetts: Instituting univeral health insurance coverage. The reason? In the words of an analyst at the Cato Institute, "In essence, you have Romney embracing 'Hillarycare,' and that doesn't play well on the right."

Clinton Recruits Hispanic Activist
The Associated Press reports that Hillary Clinton's campaign has recruited Raul Yzaguirre to co-chair her campaign. Yzaguirre is known for his activism on behalf of the Hispanic community, notably having served as president of the National Council of La Raza. He is currently teaching at Arizona State University. — Kate Redburn

Byrd Intends To Run Again At Age 95
The New York Times reports that Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV), alreayd the longest-serving Senator ever, says he intends to run again in 2012, when he will turn 95 shortly after Election Day. "I am not getting ready for any re-election right now," he said. "I will run in 2012, the Lord willing." If he does run and serves out the whole term, he would leave office at age 101 and beat Strom Thurmond's record as the oldest Senator ever.

Swann Considering House Bid
Former Pittsburgh Steelers player and failed 2006 GOP gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann told the Associated Press that he has been approached about running for Congress from Pennsylvania's Fourth District. Freshman Democrat Jason Altmire previously defeated three-term Republican Melissa Hart in a major upset last Fall, and Republicans are likely to heavily target Altmire in the GOP-leaning district that voted twice for President Bush. Swann said he is "still collecting information" about a prospective bid, while Hart is also reportedly considering a comeback. If Swann were elected, he would be the first black Republican in Congress since 2002.

John Warner Raised Only $500
The Hill reports that Senator John Warner (R-VA) raised a mere $500 in the last quarter, news sure to feed expectations that he'll retire in 2008. Warner's office released a statement clearly aimed at downplaying that implication. "“Virginians know me," Warner is quoted in the release. "If I confirm my decision to seek reelection, I have every confidence that I will be able to raise sufficient resources and structure an organization to wage a vigorous campaign leading to Election Day in November 2008.”

Congresswoman Quits Hispanic Caucus Over Treatment Of Women
The Hill reports that Representative Linda Sanchez (D-CA) has quit the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, saying she made the decision "because I believe that the current leadership has not made needed structural reforms to ensure that the caucus is more equitable and inclusive of all its members." Her sister, fellow California Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, quit the caucus over allegations that Chairman Joe Baca (D-CA) called her a "whore."

Freshman Senator and longtime Washington fixture Elizabeth Dole — whose tenure as NRSC head in the 2006 cycle was criticized by her fellow Republicans — may be vulnerable herself in 2008, a new poll shows.

The Dem firm Public Policy Polling shows that Dole is beating Dem Congressman and potential Senate challenger Brad Miller by a margin of 44%-33% -- meaning that Dole has strayed well into the below-50% danger zone. What's more, Miller — who does not himself enjoy any particular statewide presence or notoriety — has not even said whether or not he's planning to run. Finally, 30% of black voters are undecided — a demographic likely to go heavily towards Miller if he runs.

Key footnote: Though Dole represents a Southern state that is usually part of the Republican base in Presidential elections, only 40% of respondents approve of the job George W. Bush is doing, versus a handy 55% who disapprove, possibly enhancing Dole's vulnerability.

Rahm Emanuel, the chairman of the House Democratic caucus, is urging his House Dem colleagues in a memo not to back down in the face of White House pressure over Iraq and instead to continue to marginalize President Bush by pointing out that he's weaker than ever and way out of step with public opinion.

The Associated Press moved a story on Emanuel's memo a few minutes ago, quoting one half-sentence excerpt from it. Election Central has now obtained the full memo.

"The President remains incredibly weak and at odds with public opinion. Despite the attacks from the White House, nearly 70% of the American people continue to support our plan for a new direction in Iraq," Emanuel writes. It advocates that House Dems should "continue to pressure the President to negotiate with Congressional leaders on the Iraq supplemental spending bill," because "continued insistence on a blank check for the war will only further damage his standing with the American people."

The full memo after the jump.

Read more »

John Edwards has a new Web site with the less-than-sexy name "Reduce Your Carbon." It's here, if you're interested in checking it out.

Check out this new poll and strategy memo just out from Democracy Corps, the firm founded by Stan Greenberg and James Carville. It has an interesting question I've never seen asked in quite this way: It asks voters which storyline respondents prefer -- the story told by Democrats, or the story told by Republicans. Take a look:

The Dem "narrative" as defined here is preferred by 57%, while 37% prefer the Republican one -- a 20-point advantage.

The pollsters conclude that "narrative" is the biggest advantage Dems have yet, a fact they say will have enormous ramifications for the 2008 elections: "The competing narratives of the parties will evolve over the election cycle, though in some sense, it is the most important new Democratic advantage. This is about vision and direction, and here, voters want to be more Democratic than the current indicators allow. In short, there is room for growth as Democrats crystallize the choice before the country."

It's also suggestive that the spread is so big even though the question makes no mention of the GOP's biggest vulnerability: Iraq.

In advance of an appearance that Nancy Pelosi is making on Jay Leno's show tonight, the Republican National Committee has emailed out a lengthy memo attacking the Speaker that's really worth a look, because it says a great deal about the current political situation. You can read it here -- it's kind of a compendium of all the winger talking points that have been swirling in recent weeks, and as such represents the totality of the GOP's case against the House Dem leadership. You can really see that the GOP's got nothing -- for now. More after the jump.

Read more »

Here's another poll with some interesting Presidential horse race numbers. The new Time magazine poll released today says that Barack Obama is more competitive than Hillary against the two GOP frontrunners:

The Democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, has a comfortable lead over Barack Obama for the party's nomination, but loses to the GOP leader, Rudy Giuliani, by 5 points and to John McCain (in second place for the Republican nomination) by 2 (within the margin of error).

But these match-ups may say more about Clinton's weakness as a general election candidate than they do about the Democratic field. This week, John Edwards and Obama both have improved their showings in the primary field and, even more significantly, Obama now ties with Giuliani in a trial heat (45%-45%) and bests McCain by a margin of 47% to 42%.

What's more, "both Edwards and Obama have made inroads into Clinton's geographic strongholds," says Time. "In the Northeast, Edwards has narrowed her lead to just 11 points (down from 22 in March) and Edwards now leads in the Midwest. Clinton also faces a very tight race with Obama in the West, with just a 2% lead." If these numbers are to be believed, the race is way more fluid than it has appeared.

Update: I should have noted that it appears that the full poll hasn't been released yet; I can't find it, at least. All the numbers that are available are in the article I linked to. I'll bring you the full poll as soon as it's available.

Late update: The full poll is here.

Here's another key number in the big Los Angeles Times poll out this week: It looks as if John McCain has fallen into third place in the GOP Primary field, and he's now lagging behind former Senator Fred Thompson, who hasn't even entered the race yet. The numbers:

Giuliani: 29% Thompson: 15% McCain: 12% Romney: 8%

The poll was taken from April 5 to April 9, amid the bad press McCain was getting in the aftermath of his Baghdad Stroll, though it was also taken before his big Iraq speech yesterday. The paper comments: "The Arizona senator's showing in the poll is his lowest in any national survey to date."

Rudy: Slavery Apology Up To The States
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Rudy Giuliani has deferred another controversial Southern issue to the individual states: In addition to his stance on flying the Confederate Flag on state grounds, Giuliani gave a similar answer when asked his opinion on proposals to apologize for slavery. "Different states are going to have different views on that, just like they're going to have different views on guns, just like they're going have different views on controversial social issues," Giuliani said.

YouTube Launching Interactive Forum For Presidential Candidates
The Hill reports that YouTube has launched a new feature in their News & Politics section, in which Presidential candidates will be able to engage viewers by posting a video and actively soliciting responses to it. Mitt Romney is the first to post, with a vido that be viewed here, asking the question, "What do you believe is America’s single greatest challenge and what would you do to address it?" Ten other candidates have already agreed to participate, as well.

McCain Campaign Scaling Back Jobs
The Associated Press reports John McCain's campaign is eliminating some non-senior staff positions and consultant contracts in the wake of his third-place fundraising position in the first quarter. The campaign said that no political or communications divisions in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or other key primary states would be affected, but also did not specify exactly how many jobs are being cut.

McCain Refusing Contributions From Tribes
Roll Call reports that John McCain's campaign is refusing to accept contributions from Native American tribes. While McCain spokesman Danny Diaz said the Senator made the decision because he "believed their money would be put to better use elsewhere," such as tribal welfare, lobbyists for tribal groups speculate it may be an effort to distance the Senator from the Jack Abramoff scandals.

Dodd Challenges Other Dems On Iraq
The Des Moines Register reports that Chris Dodd said at a speech in Des Moines that other candidates need to take a stronger position on funding of the Iraq War. "I am calling on all my Democratic candidates in this race to join me in clearly standing up to the president once and for all by stating their support for the Feingold-Reid legislation," said Dodd.

Hillary: Political Attacks Don't Scare Me
Hillary Clinton acknowledged in an interview with USA Today that she's aware of the high level of attacks made against her, but is not deterred by them. "So what, people are going to say something bad about me?" Clinton said, laughing. "I mean really. I mean look. I understand how contentious American politics is. And why? Because there are big things at stake."

Dodd Doesn't Rule Out Going Back On Imus Show
CNN reports that Chris Dodd is taking what may be the most forgiving stance among Democrats towards Don Imus: He would consider going back on the show if Imus shows his apology to have been sincere. "I will wait to see how Don Imus' actions here underscore the sincerity he expressed in his apology and if that's there, then I'd go back on," Dodd said. "If not, then I won't."

Gerlach Pays $120,000 FEC Fine
The Hill reports that Representative Jim Gerlach (R-PA) has reached a settlement with the Federal Elections Commission, agreeing to pay a $120,000 fine for over-reporting contributions by over $2 million in his 2004 and 2005 reports. The Gerlach campaign maintains that the misreporting was due to a clerical error, not a deliberate attempt to inflate their numbers.

Barack Obama is calling for Don Imus to get the ax, reports ABC News. Here's Obama's toughly-worded quote from an interview with ABC this afternoon:

"I understand MSNBC has suspended Mr. Imus. But I would also say that there's nobody on my staff who would still be working for me if they made a comment like that about anybody of any ethnic group. And I would hope that NBC ends up having that same attitude."

Obama also told ABC that he appeared once on Imus' show two years ago, and "I have no intention of returning."

Edwards, too, deplored Imus' remarks today, but stopped short of demanding his firing.

Update: And here's Hillary on Imus: "I've never wanted to go on his show and I certainly don't ever intend to go on his show, and I felt that way before his latest outrageous, hateful, hurtful comments." And don't miss this page on Hillary's Web site.

Senator Tim Johnson — who has been on the sidelines since being treated for a stroke last December — has still been able to see money flowing to his campaign coffers, the Associated Press reports, seeing over $660,000 in contributions coming in. Johnson's office told the AP that a lot of it has come from the help of his fellow Senators, over 30 of whom have done fundraising for Johnson as he mulls whether or not to run again in 2008. The money is about even with Johnson's fundraising pace in his last cycle, with a relatively low amount of money needed for campaigning in his small Western state.

Meanwhile, his former South Dakota colleague Tom Daschle is making his own comeback as a key advisor to Barack Obama's campaign, according to MSNBC. Johnson has joined Daschle in endorsing Obama's candidacy, and Daschle is busy helping to line up money and support for the campaign.

Check out this snippet from John McCain's speech today about Iraq. It's a beaut:

Okay, let's take it line by line.

(1)McCain: "Before I left for Iraq, I watched with regret as the House of Representatives voted to deny our troops the support necessary to carry out their new mission."

This is interesting, and here's why. Dems voted to fund the troops, provided they're out by the Fall of 2008 at the latest. Does this mean McCain thinks the troops need to stay longer than that to "carry out their new mission"?

(2) McCain: "Democratic leaders smiled and cheered as the last votes were counted. What were they celebrating? Defeat? Surrender? In Iraq, only our enemies were cheering."

"Only our enemies" were cheering at the Dem passage of the withdrawal bill? But some polls show that majorities of Iraqis want us out.

(3) McCain: "A defeat for the United States is a cause for mourning, not celebrating. And determining how the United States can avert such a disaster should encourage the most sober, public-spirited reasoning among our elected leaders, not the giddy anticipation of the next election."

McCain is running for President, and this speech was being described by his own aides as critical to reinvigorating his campaign.

(4) McCain: "Democrats who voted to authorize this war, and criticized the failed strategy that has led us to this perilous moment, have the same responsibility I do, to offer support when that failure is recognized and the right strategy is proposed and the right commanders take the field to implement it or, at the least, to offer an alternative strategy that has some relationship to reality."

McCain is lecturing people about their relationship to reality? I don't mean this in a snarky way. If I were one of his handlers, I would have stricken that line out of worry that it might revive memories of his Baghdad Stroll.

VOGEL:

I dont think its all so sudden...I think it becomes more pronounced...back in 2004, bean, maryland long island...all of long isl used to be republican, now four out of five...

I dont think it's..it's not like wow, it's ... the case is is tha the voters in sub are much more reson to dems caling about and national mess has moved away from what they re talking there...a lot of times in south they'll take social issues such as choice or gun control as issue ... in sub only issue they have is taxes. dems have good record on taxes...inoculated on taxe...look at all issues where we stand, making college more affordable, standing up to big oil and gas...it's alot of these real issues where they care about, we're more in line with them on. typ rep playbook isn't working with them anymore...sub dist...other play they make is national sec...both veterans ...

for theycycle coming up, it's a big focus of what we're looking at coming up...that's just a turnout issue, more urban...pres ... shays...back to supp pres plan for esc not holding ... numb of people looking at it jim hymes green...diane farrell, our understanding is she's not interested in running again...diane called us and has been very helpful in terms of encour people and giving us her guidance...

mark kirk in ill...sub chic district...dan fields came very close last cycle without it being on national radar... 53 46...kirk has recog his vulnerability and is doing a makeover on himself...he's little more conscious in terms of supporting dem bills out there...he supported the authoriz...iraq auth...

the shift is becoming more pronounced. nine suburban districts last time...at least 10, and there are more...

focus on iraq, the realization that the repoublicans party made a fiscal mess of this country...in terms of the increased budget defic which is huge issue of indep voters in suburb districts...the cost of living, middle cast squeeze issue, price of gas...it differs by state...dep on how...in connecticut approx 25 to 30 percent of indep...penn, 12 and 15...the way people ...

if you look at the ones in sub districts, they are going to fare very well in the coming elect...voters have moved more towards them...more supportive of dem agenda ...

we've been we have a concerted effort targeting them and highlight...and what they really are doing back in wash...regional press secret holding them...the paid media we've done has been in heat

one of our people was in penn 6 this week looking for candidates...we've been lot of activ in connecticut, we've had people go out to ohio...we're doing a broader scope than that. we're gonna try to put ... a sig amt of races into play this cycle...as many as we ...

our general strategy is to look at memb that won by less than 10, memb who represent the...eight districts that kerry won still held by reps and the ethically challenged members...there are 70 or 80 that could be competitive...candidates stepping forward and then a good...

dont think any of the suburbans...just because of .... michigan 9 -- no one thought it would be as close as ... karl rove's power point, lot of those

if you look at kentucky 3, took few to take northup...john host...they take on water, if you get the rigth cand in there, things are shifting....if ... first of all, it's sig helped our recruiting process. people saw that dems can win, what we run on and what we stand for as a party works, people can run for election...typ rep attacks are not working and people are not buying it...they saw we were effect last cycle...creating accountability...big diff serving maj...very encouraging to someone who win for cong...it helps nationally ... things like the us attny scandal never gonna...

there are still indiv members who have sig ethical hurdles...it reinforces too, someo ofthe underpinnings...these pol operating by own set of rules care more about themselves than getting them...

it's hard to measure we're recruiting in 30 less dist..people coming forward to run who's committed took a pass last cycle...but we have...we have 11 districts where we have candidates filed...three of them suburban...plus 12 or 13 candidates privately committed...

John Edwards' statement on John McCain's Iraq speech today is just out:

"John McCain said today that we should seek the `judgment of history' rather than the `small politics of the day.' But the people playing politics with Iraq are Senator McCain and President Bush, and they should be ashamed of themselves.

"McCain and Bush are brazenly trying to claim that Congress is failing to provide our soldiers the resources they need. Nothing could be further from the truth. Congress funded the troops. If the President vetoes that funding, he's the only one responsible for blocking funding for the troops. And John McCain knows that.

"I have urged Congress to stand up to the President's veto threat, rather than back down in a false game of chicken. If he does veto funding for our troops, Congress should send the same bill right back to him. And they should do this again and again, until the President finally understands that he cannot reject the will of the overwhelming majority American people.

"We must end the conflict in Iraq, and force the Iraqis and their neighbors to find a political solution to the conflict. The plan I announced months ago would cap funding at 100,000 troops to stop the McCain Doctrine of escalation and force an immediate withdrawal of 40-50,000 troops followed by a complete withdrawal in 12-18 months. Under my plan, complete withdrawal is not just a goal, it is a requirement backed by Congress' funding power."

Note Edwards' "chicken" reference -- his second in two days. This is clearly a reference to Barack Obama's recent remark that Congress would fund the war after Bush's veto because no lawmaker "wants to play chicken with our trops," a statement that earned Obama a pounding from liberal bloggers and activists. Edwards is clearly appealing to those upset by Obama's line.

Also note this line from Edwards about Bush: "If he does veto funding for our troops, Congress should send the same bill right back to him."

Via Think Progress, a new poll finds that Americans aren't buying John McCain's line that things are getting better in Iraq.

When McCain talks about Iraq, he makes things sound...

* Better than they really are: 39 percent
* Worse than they really are: 9 percent
* Describing things accurately: 29 percent
* Don't know/No answer: 23 percent

Pretty interesting little moment in John McCain's big speech today:

“When the President vetoes, as he should, the bill that refuses to support General Petraeus’ new plan, I hope Democrats in Congress will heed the advice of one of their leading candidates for President, Senator Obama, and immediately pass a new bill to provide support to our troops in Iraq without substituting their partisan interests for those of our troops and our country.”

This apparently is a reference to Obama's recent line in which he appeared to say that Congress would definitely be funding the troops, even in the event of a Presidential veto.

This is hardly the sort of praise Obama wants Dem primary voters to hear, obviously, and McCain's remarks were met with a scorching reply from Obama's campaign. A few moments ago, Obama released the following statement:

“Progress in Iraq cannot be measured by the same ideological fantasies that got us into this war, it must be measured by the reality of the facts on the ground, and today those sobering facts tell us to change our strategy and bring a responsible end to this war."

"No matter how much this Administration wishes it to be true, the idea that the situation in Iraq is improving because it only takes a security detail of 100 soldiers, three Blackhawk helicopters, and two Apache gunships to walk through a market in the middle of Baghdad is simply not credible or reflective of the facts on the ground."

"What we need today is a surge in honesty. The truth is, the Iraqis have made little progress toward the political solution between Shiia and Sunni which is the last, best hope to end this war. I believe that letting the Iraqi government know America will not be there forever is the best way to pressure the warring factions toward this political settlement, which is why my plan begins a phased withdrawal from Iraq on May 1st, 2007, with the goal of removing all combat troops by March 31st, 2008."

Pretty hard-hitting on Obama's part, particulary the "ideological fantasies" and "surge of honesty" lines. Admittedly crass political question: Does getting into a high-profile fight with McCain help Obama with Dem primary voters, or is McCain's embrace of Obama ultimately more damaging among them?

Update: I should add that McCain is dissembling badly here. While it's true that Obama made the remark about troop funding, McCain is making it sound like Obama doesn't support the current efforts by the House and Senate to impose withdrawal deadlines on the President, which of course he does.

Buried in today's Los Angeles Times poll is a fascinating number that's gotten no attention as of yet:

It finds that if President Bush vetoes the Dems' bill attaching a withdrawal date to troop funding, more Americans by a very slim margin want Congress to refuse to send the President another bill without withdrawal timetables than want Congress to give him the no-strings-attached bill that he's insisting on.

Here's the question:

Q: If George W. Bush vetoes the legislation, do you think Congress should pass another version of the bill that provides funding for the war without any conditions for troop withdrawal, or should Congress refuse to pass any funding bill until Bush agrees to accept conditions for withdrawal?

Fund the war without conditions: 43%
Withhold funding until Bush signs: 45%
Don't know: 12%

This is striking, and here's why. Until now, virtually every poll asking whether people support or oppose defunding the war has asked the question in complete isolation, and public opinion has generally tilted against defunding. But this is to my knowledge the first poll that has asked the question in the political context of the President's current veto threat and the resultant standoff with Congress. In other words, this question is basically asking whether Americans favor Congress caving to Bush after his veto or whether they want Congress to stand up to him. As you can see, a slightly larger group wants the latter.

Yes, this is only one number, but it's noteworthy, and it raises a question -- and we'd love to hear from you readers about this. When Bush vetoes the bill and then accuses Dems of "refusing to fund the troops," what would happen if Dems then replied: "Mr. President, we are funding the troops. We gave you a bill; you vetoed it. But the American people have spoken: They want withdrawal timetables in there. We'll give it to you again, Mr. President; this time, sign it. Do what the American people want you to do."

Is this an argument Dems could win? Why or why not? Just throwing this out there for discussion. Thoughts?

Oh, and relatedly, the LA Times poll also finds that 48% want Bush to sign the bill, while only 43% want him to veto it.

Hang tough, Dems.

Fred Thompson Treated For Lymphoma
Fox News is reporting that Fred Thompson has confirmed he is in remission for lymphoma, and was diagnosed with it about two and a half years ago. "I have had no illness from it, or even any symptoms. My life expectancy should not be affected," Thompson said. "I am in remission, and it is very treatable with drugs if treatment is needed in the future — and with no debilitating side effects."

Richardson: "I Would Have No Residual Force Whatsoever" In Iraq
Bill Richardson took one of the boldest stances of the major Democratic candidates at last night's MoveOn online forum: "Here’s my position on Iraq and it’s not on the one hand on the other hand, benchmarks, etc… if I were President today, I would withdraw American troops by the end of this calendar year. I would have no residual force whatsoever."

Rudy Fails Gallon Of Milk Question — And Not Even Close
The Associated Press reports that Rudy Giuliani was asked at an Albama campaign stop about the prices of bread and milk. His answers: "A gallon of milk is probably about a $1.50, a loaf of bread about a $1.25, $1.30." The average prices of those items in Albama are about $3.39 for milk, and $2.00 for bread, according to the AP — and the numbers are even higher in New York City.

Romney Scores Photo Op With Bush 41
The Boston Globe reports that Mitt Romney had a major Republican leader introducing him at his speech yesterday at the George Bush Presidential Library And Museum in Texas: Former President George H.W. Bush, himself. In his speech, Romney called for increasing recruitment to the Armed Forces by 100,000 troops, and also lashed out at Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Syria.

Richardson Brokers Nuke Deal With North Korea
Bill Richardson's trip to North Korea — which was officially about recovering the remains of Soldiers lost in the Korean War — has also yielded an advance in the ongoing talks over the country's nuclear program. The Associated Press reports that Richardson has helped secure a proposed deal under which North Korea would allow inspectors in if $25 million in frozen money is also freed up.

Gingrich: Man-Made Global Warming Is Real
The Boston Globe reports that Newt Gingrich crossed a boundary not too many other major conservative have, at his debate with John Kerry yesterday on global warming. Gingrich acknowledged that man-made causes are responsible for global warming, and said that Republicans have failed to lead on the issue. "There has to be a green conservatism," Gingrich said. Instead of debating whether or not global warming is real, as some might have expected, the debate focused on how to best address the issue — with Kerry arguing for greater government intervention, and Gingrich for incentives for the private sector and consumers to act.

McCain: Democrats Are Celebrating Defeat
John McCain is giving a speech today at the Virginia Military Institute on defense and foreign policy. The Arizona Republic has advance excerpts, including this section: "Before I left for Iraq, I watched with regret as the House of Representatives voted to deny our troops the support necessary to carry out their new mission. Democratic leaders smiled and cheered as the last votes were counted. What were they celebrating? Defeat? Surrender? In Iraq, only our enemies were cheering. A defeat for the United States is a cause for mourning not celebrating."

Fred Thompson In 2006: He And Chafee "Agree On Most Issues"
Pat Robertson's Christian Broadcasting Network has dug a quote from Fred Thompson that could haunt him if he runs for President. In 2006, Thompson campaigned for liberal Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee, who was being challenged from the right in the primary before his eventual defeat in the general election. While Thompson said a big reason to support Chafee was to keep the Senate in GOP control, he also said, "There are a lot of reasons I support Linc. We agree on most issues, disagree on some." Since Chafee opposed the Iraq War, is pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, and holds other liberal views, that quote could well be used against Thompson on the campaign trail if he decides to run.

Edwards Works A Shift In Nursing Home
The Associated Press reports that John Edwards became the first Presidential candidate to participate in the Service Employees International Union's "Walk A Day In My Shoes" campaign, working a shift at a suburban New York nursing home just as any other $14/hour aide. Other candidates who have accepted the invitation are Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson.

Romney Calls For "Summit Of Nations" To Aid Moderate Muslims
The Bryan-College Station Eagle in Texas reports that Mitt Romney promised as President to hold a "summit of nations" designed to help moderates in the Middle East overcome "radical jihad." Romney said: "Only Muslims will be able to defeat the violent radicals. But we can help them." — Kate Redburn

In Alabama yesterday, Rudy said he would leave the decision about whether to fly the Confederate Flag in the State Capitol to Alabamans. The New York Times has Rudy's full quote:

“One of the great beauties of the kind of government we have, which is a national/federal government, is that we can make — on a broad range of issues — we can make different decisions in different parts of the country. We have different sensitivities, and at different times we are going to come to different decisions, and I think that is best left up to the states.”

That's a position that's too hot even for his chief rival, John McCain. The paper adds that McCain said during the 2000 campaign that he favored leaving the decision to the states, only to reverse himself, calling the flag an offensive symbol and blaming ambition for his comments. It'll be interesting to see if Rudy sticks by his views on this one.

MoveOn is staging a virtual town hall meeting with the Presidential candidates tonight, and it's just gotten underway. MoveOn executive director Eli Pariser just laid out what the meeting is about in the simplest of terms: Figuring out which Dem candidate is best qualified to get the country out of the war.

John Edwards is speaking right now. A MoveOn member asked what the best way out of Iraq is. His answer: Congress shoud defund the war.

Edwards: "This is not a game of chicken." That's an implicit slap at Barack Obama, who took a bit of heat for suggesting that Congress wouldn't defund the war by saying recently that Congress wouldn't play a game of "chicken" with our troops.

You can listen to the candidates in the town hall meeting right now here.

Update: A full transcript of Hillary's remarks in the MoveOn town hall meeting is here.

Late update: Here's a full transcript of John Edwards' remarks. We'll bring you Obama's when it's available.

From the Assciated Press:

Democrat Barack Obama on Tuesday challenged Republican White House rival John McCain for using a heavily guarded trip to a Baghdad market as evidence that Iraq's security is improving.

McCain and other members of a congressional delegation toured the Bab al-Sharqi market last week, traveling in armored military vehicles and wearing body armor during their hourlong excursion.

"The idea that the situation in Iraq is improving because it takes a security detail of 100 soldiers, three Black Hawk helicopters and a couple of Apache gunships to walk through a market in the middle of Baghdad is simply not credible and not reflective of the facts on the ground," Obama said in a taped interview that will air as part of a Democratic presidential forum sponsored by MoveOn.org.

That's pretty good. More, please.

It turns out Rudy did comment on Terri Schiavo back in 2005. But what did he say?

A number of blogs and news orgs have noted today the surprising news that Rudy told a Florida paper a few days back that he thinks government intervention was called for to save Terri Schiavo. The question that Ben Smith and others have rightly asked is why Rudy is weighing in on this now, when he was silent about it back in 2005, when the whole drama was actually happening. "According to reports at the time," Smith notes, he "avoided comment."

But we've discovered that Rudy did in fact comment on the Schiavo case back in 2005 — and now that Rudy's weighed in on the case with an apparent eye towards winning over conservatives, we'd be very interested to know what he said back then. Was he for intervention back then, or was he against it, as seems more likely? Check out this article in Colorado's Daily Camera newspaper about a speech Rudy gave in April of 2005 — just a few days after she had died — in which he briefly touched on the Schiavo case:

Giuliani's comments regarding Churchill and other controversial subjects ? including President Bush, legalizing marijuana, and the Terry Schiavo situation ? were met Sunday with overwhelming applause. However, the former New York City mayor said he appreciates conflicting opinions, adding that opposition is what makes the United States a democracy.

"I don't think we should be upset by the fact that we disagree," he said. "What we need to remove is how angry we get about it."

Unfortunately, we're having a heck of a time getting the actual speech. We contacted the reporter who wrote the story; she doesn't remember what he said about Schiavo. Anyone else out there have any idea what he said?

A quick side note on President Bush's "invitation" today to Dem Congressional leaders asking them to sit down with him for some non-negotiations over what to do about Iraq:

Let's not forget that Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi already have repeatedly sent letters to Bush asking him to work with them on an Iraq compromise.

Interestingly, Speaker Pelosi's office confirms to me that the White House hasn't answered any of these entreaties.

Letter to Bush, March 28:

Mr. President, this is the time to sit down and work together on behalf of the American people and our troops. We stand ready to work with you, but your threats to veto a bill that has not even been presented to you indicate that you may not be ready to work with us. We hope that is not the case.

Letter, February 14:

Mr. President, it is wrong to deploy troops to the Iraqi theater until they have the up-armored Humvees, equipment, lodging, training and other support required to carry out their mission. We hope you will work with us to make sure that they do. Our troops and their families deserve nothing less.

It isn't terribly surprising, of course, that the White House hasn't answered these, given the public nature of these sorts of letters, but the Dems' invitations -- and Bush's non-response to them -- are certainly worth keeping in mind now that Bush has "invited" Dems to sit down with him.

I've just received a copy of the joint response from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to President Bush's invitation for Congressional leaders to have non-negotiations with him over the future of Iraq:

"The American people want the President and the Congress to work together to bring this war to an end, safely and responsibly. Congressional Democrats are willing to meet with the President at any time, but we believe that any discussion of an issue as critical as Iraq must be accomplished by conducting serious negotiations without any preconditions. Our goal should be to produce an Iraq supplemental bill that both fully funds our troops and gives them a strategy for success.

"With his threat to veto such a plan for change in Iraq, President Bush is ignoring the clear message of the American people: we must protect our troops, hold the Iraqi government accountable, rebuild our military, provide for our veterans, and bring our troops home.

"The President is demanding that we renew his blank check for a war without end. Despite the fact that the President persists in trying to score political points at the expense of our troops, congressional Democrats have repeatedly reached out in the spirit of cooperation. We renew our request to work with him to produce a bipartisan bill that provides our troops and our veterans with every penny they need, but in turn, demands accountability."

More on this in a bit.

South Carolina political reporter Lee Bandy writes about a new poll by Insider Advantage with a surprising finding: Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton by 14 points, 34% to 20%.

"The Illinois senator’s showing represents a complete turnaround for Obama who trailed in earlier South Carolina surveys," Bandy writes. "What is worrisome for the Clinton campaign is that she is in danger of slipping into third place in South Carolina. The poll shows that former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is only three percentage points away from overtaking Clinton."

Half of the South Carolina primary electorate is African American. Such poll findings suggest that the Dems' upcoming debate in South Carolina on April 26 may be even more crucial -- and even more closely watched, too.

Update: A reader writes in to argue that this poll should perhaps be taken with a grain of salt, for a couple reasons. One, it's a recorded voice poll -- a technique thought to be unreliable and not used by the big reputable firms. The firm's CEO is also a columnist for the winger site Townhall.com, the reader notes.

The conservative criticism of Rudy Giuliani for his support of public funding for abortion really seems to be snowballing. The latest to hammer Rudy on the issue: Syndicated columnist Cal Thomas. He kicks off his latest column with a bang: "Rudy Giuliani is playing the role of a contortionist as he attempts to convince pro-life voters to support his bid for president."

Thomas then compares Giuliani's position to that of those who insisted upon a right to keep slaves in the face of the anti-slavery views of Abraham Lincoln in the 1850's and 1860's. The clear implication: The pro-choicers of today are in the same moral situation as the Slave Power of the 1800's — and Rudy is on their side for joining in with what Thomas calls "the danger of reading into the Constitution ideas and supposed rights that are not there."

And the truly brutal closer:

Lincoln's point was there are no distinct words in the Constitution expressing the right of a human to own another human. The Taney Court had to misread the Constitution in order to assert such a "right," which is what the court did in Roe v. Wade a century later.

If Giuliani believes in a strict construction interpretation of the Constitution, he could not support abortion because a strict constructionist does not find language permitting it.

Giuliani says people who don't like his position do not have to vote for him. Many social conservatives who view abortion as a make-or-break issue are likely to follow his advice.

Reactions like this would seem to indicate that Rudy has little to no hope of getting Christian conservatives to accept his candidacy as a palatable option. Nonetheless, Rudy continues to lead in most polls — even among self-described conservatives. Will that continue in Rudy's favor, or are people like Thomas a leading indicator of what will happen when Rudy's views eventually sink in with the GOP base?

In a little-noticed interview with WSYR radio, Hillary has finally spoken out on the bogus Pelosi-to-Syria controversy, defending the Speaker from the phony charges being lodged against her by the GOP and the White House:

Interviewer: Nancy Pelosi has taken that trip to Syria which raised a lot of controversy. What was your take on that? Were you pleased that she did that or do you think that was a mistake?

Senator Clinton: No, I think that both her delegation, which was primarily Democrats, and a Republican delegation that was there approximately at the same time are doing the right thing. We have got to engage these countries. Obviously we have serious differences with a country like Syria, but we're sure not making progress towards our goals in the region by isolating and ignoring them. So I wish the President were engaged in the region, in the way that I would think a President should be. You know we were always engaged, whether it was a Republican or Democratic President. With the former Soviet Union, we had a Communist Empire with thousands of missiles pointed at us, with Presidents who said that they wanted to bury us, running proxy wars against us. We never stopped engaging and talking and we never gave up on our values. In fact I think we learned a lot about our adversaries which helped us eventually bring about their decline and defeat in the Cold War. Well I think that's the much smarter way. I don't agree with the President's view that we don't talk to bad people because clearly that's not a smart way to figure out how you can bring leverage on them and that's what I'm interested in.

Thoughts?

There's lots to chew over in the new Gallup poll released today, but let's start here: It finds that Hillary's dominating the Democratic field, with twice the support of Barack Obama, her nearest rival. The numbers:

Hillary: 38% Obama: 19% Edwards: 15% Gore: 14%

Gallup observes that Obama's numbers have been "relatively static," which is somewhat surprising given the blast of good news he enjoyed when releasing his startlingly good fundraising numbers.

"Clinton's continued dominance as the front-runner across the five Gallup Polls conducted so far this year (and for that matter in national polls going back to 2005) is therefore remarkable," Gallup concludes. "There has been some movement from poll to poll, as would be expected, but to this date, no other candidate has challenged her hegemony over the process."

More: "As of early April, the data show that despite holding his own with Clinton on the fundraising front, Obama continues to trail her by a considerable distance in national Democratic preferences, as do Edwards, Gore, and other third-tier candidates."

McCain To Continue To Appear On The Imus Show
The Arizona Republic reports that John McCain said he will continue to appear as a guest on the Don Imus show, despite outrage from many quarters about Imus's use of racial slurs to describe a heavily black female athletic team. "He has apologized. He said that he's deeply sorry," McCain said. "I'm a great believer in redemption. Whether he needs to do more in order to satisfy the concerns of people like the members of that team, that's something that's between him and them." Meawhile, the Imus show has been suspended for the next weeks.

False Story Circulating About Obama-Libya Trip
The Chicago Tribune reports that a story is making its way around the Internet about Barack Obama supposedly travelling to Libya in 1984 and meeting with Moammar Gadhafi and Louis Farrakhan — though the story is not true. The visit was actually done by Obama's pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and the story originated from a mis-remembering by Jan Markell, a conservative Christian activist. "There wasn't any malice on my part. I just interpreted it in a completely wrong way," Markell said.

Hillary Crushing The Competition In New York
A new poll for channel NY1 has Hillary Clinton beating all takers in New York, with her ahead of Rudy Giuliaini 53%-39% in a general election matchup — with Giuliani running as the strongest possible Republican in New York — and holding a 49%-17% advantage over Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.

Fred Thompson To Attend Big Washington Prayer Breakfast
Jonathan Martin reports that Fred Thompson will be attending this Friday's National Catholic Prayer Breakfast at the Washington Hilton, in a sign that the former Senator is further moving towards making a run for President.

Romney To Call For Defense Spending Increases
The Associated Press that Mitt Romney will head to the George Bush Presidential Library and Museum in College Station, Texas, today to give a speech calling for increases in defense spending, up from 3.9% of GDP to 4.0% of GDP. The speech will also focus on decreasing government bureaucracy, so that more money can be put directly towards foreign activity. The speech is being delivered ahead of a similar speech about defense policy by John McCain, which will be delivered tomorrow.

Poll: Congressional Approval Low But Improving
A new AP-Ipsos poll has Congressional approval improving, but still anemic, with 40% approval and 57% disapproval. This is still well ahead of President Bush, however, who is suffering from only 35% approval and 62% disapproval. Meanwhile, only 27% of respondents think the country is on the right track, versus 70% who say it is on the wrong track.

Obama Comes To New York For Fundraisers
The New York Sun reports that Barack Obama came to Hillary Clinton's New York base yesterday for a high-power, $2,300/head fundraiser co-hosted by Huffingon Post co-founder Kenneth Lerer and former AOL Time Warner CEO Robert Pittman, drawing dozens of supporters ready to donate the legal maximum.

Hillary To Return To New Hampshire
The Boston Globe reports that Hillary Clinton will make a three-day swing through New Hampshire this weekend.

Webb Has No Comment, Rushes Off When Asked About VP Slot
NBC-29 reports that Jim Webb was asked at the University of Virginia about possibly being the Democratic candidate for Vice President. After giving a lecutre to Professor Larry Sabato's class, during which he discussed the Iraq War, economic fairness and other issues, Webb "said he had no comment and was quickly rushed away," according to channel 29.

And then there were three. Three leading Dem candidates who have pulled out of the Fox/Congressional Black Caucus debate.

Hillary has now confirmed that she's not participating in the debate, joining John Edwards, who pulled out on Friday, and Barack Obama, who pulled out today.

Clinton spokesman Phil Singer emails:

"We’re going to participate in the DNC-sanctioned debates only. We’ve previously committed to participating in the South Carolina and Tavis Smiley debates."

Does this mean the Fox/CBC debate is dead?

That's what David Yepsin of the Des Moines Register concluded after speaking to GOP Senator Chuck Grassley and finding that he was unable to name anyone who was seriously thinking of taking on Senator Tom Harkin, his Democratic counterpart.

"Harkin’s already banked over $2 million," Yepsin writes. "Serious challengers get scared off by that, and by history. According to Harkin’s office, the Congressional Research Service has said the Iowa Democrat has defeated more sitting Republican members of Congress than any Democrat in the history of the Senate."

"So it’s little wonder top GOP office-holders aren’t interested in becoming the sixth."

Sounds pretty convincing to us.

Barack Obama is pulling out of the Fox/Congressional Black Caucus debate, Ben Smith reports. With John Edwards not going, this latest development should mean the debate is dead -- effective immediately.

Still no word from Camp Hillary on whether she plans to attend.

Update: Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton has just confirmed this on the record, emailing me the following: "We just thought CNN was a more appropriate venue. We will be doing the 6 DNC debates and the CBC/CNN debate in January."

Okay, we just got off the phone with Nancy Beck, a spokesperson for the State Department. She's refusing to say whether State agrees or disagrees with the contention that Nancy Pelosi violated the Logan Act with her trip to Syria.

As you may have heard by now, some of the wingnuts have been out in force for the past few days pushing this charge. It was lodged against Pelosi most visibly last Friday in The Wall Street Journal, has been kicked around by a battery of winger blogs, and even made its way into the reporting of at least one big news org when Matt Lauer of NBC aired it.

The charge has already been ably debunked by Joe Klein over at Swampland, and I have to say that it remains a particularly bizarre accusation. After all, State Department spokesperson Sean McCormack has repeatedly said publicly that while State disapproved of the trip, it briefed Pelosi and otherwise provided her with support for it. Is it really possible that the State Department would have helped Pelosi prepare and execute a trip that would constitute a violation of the law? Boy does that seem unlikely.

At any rate, we thought it was time to put the question directly to the State Department -- does it or does it not view her trip as a violation of the Logan Act? We posed the question half a dozen times to State spokesperson Nancy Beck. Each time, she refused to answer, referring us back to McCormack's previous statements on the question, none of which addressed this specific point in any way.

Bizarre, isn't it? State helps Pelosi prep for the trip, briefing her for it and providing her logistical support. But now it won't say whether it thinks her trip constituted a crime or not.

Any thoughts as to why this might be?

Check out the Rudy campaign's just-released statement on New York's decision today to move its primary up to Feb. 5:

"Rudy Giuliani is the Republican candidate who can compete and win in New York State. Voters here know first-hand that Rudy is a true leader and proven problem-solver who has made a real difference in people's lives. He will bring the prosperity New York City saw under his tenure as Mayor to the entire state."

Noteworthy bit: The Rudy campaign is now making the "he can compete and win in New York" argument a part of its on-the-record pitch. This of course is all about telling conservatives nationally that while Rudy may favor abortion, gun control and gay rights and likes wearing dresses, he's the only one who can beat the other candidate in the race who favors abortion, gun control and gay rights and likes wearing dresses.

See his Web page on "global warming month," complete with a bunch of events, here. It needs to be said that whatever the virtues of the Obama and Clinton campaigns -- and whatever you think of today's initiative -- the Edwards campaign is successfully projecting an air of seriousness and sobriety that's worthy of attention.

“Clinton, McCain lose front-runner label,” blares the headline in a Los Angeles Times piece today. It opines:

Far from clarifying things, last week's tally of first-quarter fundraising totals dispelled the air of inevitability that the putative favorites — Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona — spent years trying to create.

But enough doubts surround each of the other leading candidates to prevent any from breaking loose and emerging as the one to beat. And enough questions remain about the contours of the race — including which states will vote on which dates and whether anyone else jumps in — that the only certainty appears to be many more months of grind-it-out campaigning.

"A year ago, there was a clear Clinton scenario, a clear McCain scenario" for winning their respective party nominations, said Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of a nonpartisan campaign newsletter in Washington. "The question was whether someone would challenge them. Now it's clear other candidates have caught the public's attention, caught donors' attention. The result is a pair of races that are both very, very competitive."

Sure, the McCain thing is old news, but Hillary? Isn't she still comfortably ahead in virtually all polls of the Dem Presidential field -- or isn't that info at least relevant to the topic at hand? Even though the LA Times piece purports to be an assessment of the current closeness of the contest, the piece curiously doesn't cite a single survey of the Democrats.

The Associated Press reports:

Gov. Eliot Spitzer signed a bill Monday moving New York's presidential primary to Feb. 5 — a change that could benefit the Democratic and Republican front-runners, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, both New Yorkers.

About a dozen other states, including California and New Jersey, have already moved their primaries or caucuses to Feb. 5 or are about to do so. About a dozen more are considering such moves, setting the stage for what is quickly becoming known as "Super-Duper Tuesday" just 22 days after the leadoff Iowa caucuses.

An early "super-primary," of course, helps the best-funded candidates in several ways -- it makes it more likely that they'll rack up early victories that further marginalize the already-marginal candidates; and gives them the chance to make up for early stumbles with a big Feb. 5 showing, a possibility known among some political pros as the "firewall scenario."

Grassley Won't Endorse Until The Fall, May Not Endorse At All
Radio Iowa reports that Senator Chuck Grassley, the top Republican in Iowa, says he won't endorse a Presidential candidate at least until this fall, and might not make any endorsement for the caucus at all. "I may decide to stay out so I can be unifier — after the fact — for our party," said Grassley.

"Hunter" Romney Never Applied For A Hunting License
The Associated Press reports that Mitt Romney — whose claims of being "a hunter pretty much all my life" have been deflated by the admission that he only went on two hunting trips, also never applied for any hunting licenses in the states of Michigan, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Utah — states where he lived for extended periods of his life and would have been likely to apply for one if he were an avid hunter. However, no license is required in Utah for shooting at smaller game, which Romney claims to have done.

Obama To Appear On Letterman
The Chicago Tribune reports that Barack Obama will head to New York today, where he will be a guest on The Late Show With David Letterman. He will also hold a pair of fundraisers in New York with high-power donors.

Wall Street Journal: Thompson Delay Is Costly
The Wall Street Journal reviews the major disadvantage Fred Thompson is facing as he weighs a decision on whether to run for President: The longer he waits, the more money and activists already start to commit to other candidates. "Fred is a dear friend," said Ted Welch, a major Republican fundraiser from Nashville. "But I committed to Mitt Romney, and once I committed I can't back out."

Hillary Agrees To South Carolina Debate
The Hill reports that Hillary Clinton has agreed to participate in a Democratic debate in South Carolina on April 26, joining all other major Democratic candidates, who have already agreed to that debate.

Richardson Recruits High-Profile South Carolina Dem
The Hill reports that Bill Richardson has recruited James Dukes, a former aide to Senator Fritz Hollings and the state director for John Kerry's 2004 campaign in the state, to serve as state political director for the Richardson campaign.

Rasmussen: Edwards Leads Giuliani, Obama Narrowly Trails Hillary
A new Rasmussen poll shows John Edwards surging ahead of Rudy Giuliani, who has tended to be the strongest Republican candidate in recent polls, by a margin of 49%-43%. In nationwide polling of Democratic primary voters, however, Edwards still hs his work cut out for him — another poll has him in a distant third with 15%, while Hillary Clinton has just a narrow 34%-29% lead over Barack Obama.

In Kentucky, Northup Going On The Air
The Hill reports that Ann Northup's campaign for Governor will air its first television ads this week, promoting the defeated former Congresswoman's primary challenge against incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher, whose administration has been plagued by ethics scandals.

Duncan Hunter's Son To Serve In Iraq While Running For Congress
The Washington Times reports that Duncan D. Hunter, a veteran Marine and the son of Congressman and Presidential candidate Duncan L. Hunter, will be serving another tour in Iraq during the Republican primary to replace his retiring father in Congress. While he will be a candidate for the seat, he won't actually be in the country to campaign for it, which could potentially give an advantage to other candidates in the election — though he says he is not at all discouraged. "In fact it makes me want to run more than ever," said the younger Hunter.

The rollout of John McCain's "new" political strategy of aggressively arguing for pressing ahead in Iraq begins today with a McCain-authored Op-ed piece in this morning's Washington Post.

There's plenty to dig into in this piece, but I just wanted to highlight one thing. In the article McCain repeats many of his standard formulations about the hidden good news in Iraq and the alleged refusal of the press to report on it. He concludes:

There is no guarantee that we will succeed, but we must try. As every sensible observer has concluded, the consequences of failure in Iraq are so grave and so threatening for the region, and to the security of the United States, that to refuse to give Petraeus's plan a chance to succeed would constitute a tragic failure of American resolve. I hope those who cite the Iraq Study Group's conclusions note that James Baker wrote on this page last week that we must have bipartisan support for giving the new strategy time to succeed.

Never mind that many of the observers McCain surely thinks of as sensible, such as Colin Powell, the Joint Chiefs, some military commanders, and plenty of Republicans in Congress, opposed escalation completely at the outset -- and hence presumably don't think it can work, even if given a chance.

More to the point, the whole question about whether we should support giving escalation "a chance" is a big fat ruse. It's nothing but code for backing the continuation of the current policy indefinitely, with no set deadline at which we'll decide whether it's succeeded or failed, and no set of meaningful standards by which such a judgment could even be made. Is this really the course of action favored by "every sensible observer" in the United States? Who are the people McCain thinks of as "sensible observers," anyway?

Also check out McCain's assertion that James Baker wrote in the Washington Post a few days ago that escalation should be given a chance. But Baker actually argued in his piece for the implementation of the Iraq Study Group's prescriptions. While the ISG did say it could abide a short-term surge, the ISG also explicitly opposed an "open-ended" troop commitment and also called on the administration to do a bunch of other things it isn't doing now. So it's very hard indeed to read Baker's piece as support for the current strategy, which again is open-ended -- unless, of course, you're determined to read it that way.

Anyway, there's plenty here to dig into. Have fun.