No surprise here. Both Rasmussen and Zogby poll likely voters, which is generally a more conservative group than registered voters. Likely voter polls carry more weight when you get close to an election, not eight months out.

Zogby has been wrong since 2004 so ignore him. He used to be accurate but something had happened to his polling stuff. Remember Zogby put out a poll before the 06 election that Reynolds would lose big after the foley fiasco? it never happened. I am not saying Hillary will be favored by many but Zogby is still on medications and til he gets off his meds, I don't trust his numers anymore.

I recommend that folks go to www.pollster.com and look at the trend lines for Clinton, Edwards and Obama. It is clear that Obama has the momentum and is cutting into HRC's lead.

Hillary's supporters will no doubt continue to deny it, but it is becoming increasingly clear that her path to the White House is extremely narrow. Her strength among Dems is counterbalanced by the hardened attitudes of indies and moderate Repubs. Her net favorability rating is at +5, compared to Obama who is at +22, at a time when over a third of the population has yet to form any opinion about him. His opportunity for growth is much higher and he is already outperforming her in head to head trials against the three top Repubs.

Setting aside the argument over who would make a better President (I have numerous reasons for prefering Obama), I think it would be folly for Dems to nominate someone who looks so vulnerable in the general election. Obama supporters are frequently accused of being naive. IMO it is the Dem establishment that is being naive by supporting a candidate with so much baggage and such high negatives.

But Zogby is backed up here by Rasmussen, who nailed the 2004 election.

Rasmussen is a GOP polling entity so his numbers are higher than other polls. Look at Bush's numbers compared to other polls. Bush's fav rating still in 40 in Rasmussen's poll. Again, Im not trying to minimize the numbers but Zogby has gone off the cliff since 2004. WTF happened to Zogby?

Obama will never win and you can take that to the bank. All you have to do is look what happened to Ford in TN. Our country is dominated by whites and although they will not tell the truth when polled, they will never vote for a black man. It is a sad truth but it is the truth.

Besides experience, his skin color is his biggest obtascle. Dems may vote for him but he aint gonna win it all.

The problem is that Hillary's candidacy will only give the media endless chances to viciously attack her and drag up every single "scandal" of the Clinton administration, all while piously pretending to themselves that Hillary's running makes it "newsworthy" to "openly speculate" about "Hillary-care" and Monica.

It's not even so much that Hillary would be a bad campaigner. She wouldn't be great, but she's had a long time in the national spotlight and she's probably as ready as anyone for that challenge.

On a level playing field, she'd probably be a reasonably successful candidate. But, the field is anything but level.

If the MSM attacks Obama or Edwards at least it's possible to fight back. But, how does Hillary change her image NOW after all the endless publicity that's gone before?

Republicans won't even really need to Swift-boat her directly. They can simply re-enforce the previous negative public images of Hillary they have spent endless time building for the last 15 years: cold, bitch, shrewish, "manish", too weak on defense, yet frivolous, it "takes a village", and above all -- so power-hungry, that she forgave Bill for everything, even Monica.

There will be endless "exposees" about how "Hillary cut a deal with Bill over Monica."

The election won't be about Republican failures, Bush's war in Iraq will be pushed into the background.

And every Republican in the country will get off his death-bed to turn out the vote to stop her. The Democrats might as well run Jane Fonda as Hillary as far as red-America is concerned.

She's just a disastrous candidate because she makes it impossible to canpaign on the horror that is the Bush administration. Democrats need to hang the albatross of Misrule over every Republican head, and Hillary just won't be able to do that because the media won't let her.

I think the experince argument is mostly bogus. Time and again, in depth analysis of voter behavior shows that values and judgement trump experience every time. Voters ask themselves a basic question, "is this guy up to the job?" If the candidate passes this preliminary test, then voters ask themselves, "does this candidate have decent character and represent my values?" Obama has plenty of time during the rigors of the campaign to demonstrate that he is up to the job.

The racial identity question is unknown. Our country has never had a black/bi-racial candidate with a legitimate chance to win it all. We are in unchartered territory. Surveys suggest that crossing the gender barrier may be harder than crossing the racial barrier. Furthermore, most of the folks who would not vote for a black President are not Dems or Dem leaning anyway. These foks are also likely to be concentrated in the south were Dem chances are slim to none regardless of our nominee.

Obama more than any other candidate in recent history has the potential to actually change the universe of potential voters. I thind he could realistically bring several million new voters into the process based on race, youth and appeals to a new politics. Generally, political scientists discount this possibility, but Obama may be the one who can change the dynamic.

Ultimately, I think it gets down to "gut feelings." I agree with Joseph Lowery's comments about a "good kind of crazy goin'on out here." I am more willing to bet that Obama can overcome the racial hurdle than that Hillary can overcome the gender barrier, her baggage, her unfavorability, and most of all her lack of authenticity.

What shows Edwards having the greater chance to win?

Yes, but you need to show that it is more relevant than other facts.

Ford's family is tarred by all kinds of scandal, and the "bimbo" ad stuck because of Ford's reputation as a party boy. Furthermore, TN is not in play in 2008. Gore couldn't even win the state in 2000. So Obama does not need to win TN. If Ford had lost in Ohio I think it would be more relevant, but TN is not Ohio.

More analysis?

please Ford'a family was not in play b/c he was leading before the bimbo ad, a small lead yes. Obama will face the same bimbo ad if he wins the primaries.

>>"is this guy up to the job?"

No that would not be the first Q. The first Q is do I like this guy or gal? Can I live with this person next 4 years ? then they start thinking about issues, experience, etc.....Bush won in 2004 again b/c he was more likable than Kerry. It is terrible but that how lazy voters think. Lazy voters don't research or look very deep into issues, not after 8hrs at work then kids, grocery etc...

The Dems will be swinging by the South, haven't you heard? The GOP can accelerate their descent by continuing their downward spiral into a regional party by stroking the Deep South.

Meanwhile, the rest of us are going to forget about the Civil War States, ongoing bigotry in this region, and still manage to ship our tax dollars to the Deep South so your folks won't descend into third world status. See how generous we are?

And this from someone who was raised in the South to my eternal embarassment.

First, Ford was fighting scandals in his family from the get-go. Without those, he might have eked out a victory even with the bimbo ad.

Second, a "bimbo ad" directed against a single guy who could rightfully be dating attractive women is a far cry from the same ad directed against a married guy with children and not a whiff of "funny bizness" going on.

Third, I suspect that the response from the Obama Campaign, using perhaps Mrs. Obama, in the form of an ad would result in sympathy votes for Obama if handled correctly.

Fourth, Tennessee is part of the Old South and these states will remain "iffy" for the Democrats. But their electoral votes aren't needed for a Democratic Presidential win. If you live in this area, you have my sympathy but your view just might be skewed in the wrong direction on this issue.

Surveys suggest that crossing the gender barrier may be harder than crossing the racial barrier.

This certainly holds true in corporate America and in terms of the social scene.

Just my opinion, but I think experience will take a hit--at least for those who remember that in 2000 Bush's lack of experience was supposedly balanced by Cheney's heavy experience....we all know how that has worked out.

The track record of the Bush record says that experience does not count. It says that character and judgement counts. Issues change, character doesn't. Dubya's character and Cheneys have been accurate predictors of how they wuld handle situations. Cheney has always been a machivellian bully and Dubya has always been petulant spoiled adolescent richboy who lacked judgement ...nothing changed when they made it to the WH.

The issue is not experience or the lack of. The issue is character.

I believe that most of those never-votes base their opinion on what they know about her from long ago. Most of that is lies.

Perhaps, it is her Iraq vote? Some of Hillary's former supporters have defected, due to how she has voted in the Senate, and her failure to distinguish herself in the Senate. Not based on media lies at all, rather it is her performance as a Senator and how it is understood outside of the state of NY.

No, Ford was not fighting any scandals. He was starting to pull away from Coker when they decided they must release the bimbo ad or Ford will win the contest. Ford was behind by 5-6 points then got ahead by 2-3 and the bimbo ad reversed the trend. it was a 5-6 points turnaround.

If you compare Ford and Obama, they are similar except the marital status. They are both good looking, well spoken, and charisma and all that jazz.

The bimbo ad was not about being married or single but it was about race. Coker wanted to remind TN voters that Ford is black thus you should not vote for a black man. It was pathetic and sad but Ford lost the contest because of his race.