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Rothenberg: Rudy Just May Win

Analyst Stuart Rothenberg, who recently stated flatly that Rudy can't win the GOP nomination, now says he isn't so sure Rudy won't win, after all:

I’ve asked a number of thoughtful political consultants, from both parties, who they think is most likely to be the GOP nominee and who is the least likely. So far, Giuliani is seen as the most likely and McCain as the least. That’s not a scientific sample or a reliable poll. But that kind of anecdotal evidence has me more confused than ever.

Of Mitt Romney, Rothenberg writes:

He is smart, articulate, telegenic and oozes leadership. But he’s changed his stands on hot-button issues over the years, and his Mormon religion will be a problem among some key Republican constituencies. Plus, his foreign policy and national security credentials are thin, at best.

If Rothenberg is wondering why Rudy is surprisingly strong, he's partly answered his own question here. Note that he observes that Romney's foreign policy credentials are thin, but doesn't make the same observation of Rudy, whose credentials in that area are every bit as thin as Romney's.

Bottom line: If insiders, reporters and commentators cede Rudy the aura of foreign policy strength based on the sole fact that he was politically fortunate enough to be Mayor of New York on Sept. 11, rather than seriously digging into his lack of a real record on foreign policy, he'll have a far better shot at the nomination, not to mention the White House. This obviously isn't the only factor at play, but it certainly is a key one. No mystery here.


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Not only that, but surely the "key Republican constituencies" who have a problem with Romney's Mormonism will have at least as much of a problem with Giuliani's social views and personal life.

DC Drinking Liberally

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Thank you for saying this. I am very troubled by the fact that everytime someone in the media talks about Rudy's potential problems with a primary they only cite his lifestyle issues as something that could hold him back. By NOT mentioning his glaring deficiencies as an executive, they are either demonstrating their ignorance or complicity in this lie that Giuliani would be an even remotely competent POTUS.

And why is no one talking about the fact that this guy is going straight from fucking MAYOR to PRESIDENT?? If it's fair game to question Obama's candidacy because he's ONLY been a senator, then this seems like a no brainer.

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I don't think there is anything wrong with someone leaping from big-city Mayor to the Presidency. I've always thought that 'experience' isn't necessarily a reliable indicator of whether or not a candidate will make a good President. We have no shortage of politicians with resumes a mile long who are also fricking idiots. Some basic personal qualities and a strong character are more important for me.

Is it 2008 yet?

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At some point the Saint Rudy veneer will wear off. Maybe it will be when he looses his temper when some wingnut (O'Reilly?) asks him about his personal life or when some firefighter asks him why he ignored the need for appropriate radios for the NYFD before 9/11, or when some EMS worker asks him why he moved the NYC Emergency Response Center to the basement of the biggest terrorist target in the world, against that advice of numerous experts.

When this finally happens, then maybe the media will be "liberated" to discuss his abusive practices when he was US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, his Bushesque poll numbers in NYC on September 10, and his utter lack of experience with foreign affairs other than waiving a bloody flag.

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Because 9/11 changed everything.  

Dissent Protects Democracy.

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I've been wondering, too, why no one seems to be mentioning the humungous leap it is from mayor to president, even if it is NYC we're talking about.

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See, I think people are going to keep saying this until election day.

The veneer will not wear off. It must be removed. So far, no one is doing that.

 

Dissent Protects Democracy.

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I think I take less issue with the merits of experience than I do with the media's inconsistency in criticizing Obama or Edwards for their lack of experience and not Giuliani.

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Of course Rudy Giuliani will get the nomination. He has the support of Firefighters For Rudy.

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I've met New Yorkers who think that Bush's fascist tendencies would be continued and increased by a Giuliani presidency.
As a judge of character, Giuliani can't escape his choice of Bernard Kerik for NYPD commissioner.

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It better happen sooner rather than later.

BTW, if people think Bush is too authoritarian, wait till they see Rudy.

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I think the real issue is whether the GOP starts to see Rudy as their only chance to win the presidency.

Among the Rudy issues for the media to point out, it's totally hypocritical to be pro-choice and support (some) gay rights but then say that you will appoint "originalist" judges like the ones Bush has appointed.

You're either for those rights and will support them by appointing judges who will uphold those rights, or you are against those rights and will appoint judges who will refuse to uphold those rights. There is no straddling that line. The appointment of judges is the only place where being pro-choice and pro-gay rights matters.

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It wasn't even in the basement, it was on the 27th floor of 7 WTC...even worse. The original plan called for the center to be located just over the Manhattan Bridge in Brooklyn, which is where it is now. But Rudy didn't want to have to cross the river. Everybody knows that in a crisis like 9/11, the executive needs to be in a secure location from which he can direct the response. Rudy became famous on 9/11 not because his city was well prepared for it (it was not) or because of his fantastic management of the crisis - it was because there were a lot of visuals of him walking around in dust and rubble with his sleeves rolled up. Of course, the only reason he was doing that was because he was looking for a replacement crisis center - because the one he put in 7 WTC was closed and inacessible before he even got down there. Can't really effectively direct a response wandering around the streets of downtown Manhattan.

The Rudy myth also exists because on 9/11, the American people were understandably looking for leadership - any leadership - and reassurance. Bush was, for the most part, nowhere to be found...and even during his brief appearances on that day he looked like a deer in the headlights. Not very difficult to appear more leader-like than our C-in-C did on that day. Rudy in the rubble filled that void, even though he didn't really do anything significant beyond, again, looking good on the TV.

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Criticizing? I'd settle if the national media MENTIONED it at all. Instead, it's "America's mayor" ad infinitum. The New York metropolitan media must be wondering why the national media is giving him such a free ride. He hasn't earned it, certainly.

But the conservatives will support him, because he fits in with the notion of a manly leader who can GET THINGS DONE. The whole marriage debacle? That doesn't matter at all, because, as it is becoming more and more apparent, the "moral majority" is anything but moral or a majority.

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How many times was Reagan married? What was Reagan's foreign policy experience? What was Reagan's main competency, something like being known as an able communicator?

Nah, like I've been saying, no way Giuliani can get nominated or elected....

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Dems should do a Rove and go after Rudy's strength. His performance on 9/11. A reporter quoted by Newsweek in its tongue-bath of Rudy says there is a lot in the record showing him focusing on his own PR more than doing his job.

Dems always cede Republicans their perceived strengths, while Republicans go after Democrats' perceived strengths. 9/11 presents the perfect target for Dems to pursue with Rudy.

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As Steve M at No More Mister Nice Blog has been pointing out for a while now, Rudy's authoritarianism is immensely appealing to what has become the Authoritarian Party. He'll (mostly) get a pass on the divorce and the pro-choice history and such because the Republicans want someone who talks tough...and that's what Rudy does.

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I think that being a big city mayor is a significantly more difficult job than being a governor. It's not just NY. Being mayor of Philadelphia, Detroit or Chicago is a lot more demanding than being the goverernor of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Illinois. Governers tend to have more resources at their disposal in relation to the tasks they need to accomplish.
Njorl

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If it really mattered what average Republican voters think McCain would be president today. It may come down to whether the corporate big-wigs who run the party want to risk alienating the religious right. It may also come down to the general mood of the country next year, and what the Democrats do. If the populist mood continues to grow, than it may be Obama vs Giuliani. Otherwise, it could end up Clinton vs McCain.

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Yes, I think experience when it comes to being president is overrated, just look at probably the 2 least experienced presidents we've had in the past 100 years, George W. Bush and Jimmy Carter. Everyone knows how little their inexperience mattered, and what a great job they did.

Rudy's popularity owes more to the weakness of the Republican field and their chances at winning in 2008 than to his strengths. McCain is saddled with his support of the unpopular Iraq War, and that's destroying his candidacy before our very eyes. As for the other candidates, Romney? In any other year, would we even be talking about him? Forget his Mormonism and his past stands on social issues, he's no strong candidate (if that) than Lamar Alexander was or Tom Vilsak was. We are only talking about him at all because the religious right doesn't have any candidates they can rally around after their only decent candidate, Allen, imploded last year. Meanwhile, the rest of the GOP field looks like a collection of Chris Dodd campaigns.

Giuliani will probably win the GOP nomination by default, but it's hard to see any Republican winning in 2008. Of course, something unexpected could happen, and Rudy could win, but right now, he's doing well because the rest of the GOP field looks so weak.

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Reagan won because of the double digit interest and inflation rates. In that kind of environment, voters want a change so badly that the usual measures of a candidate's qualifications lose their potency.

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I think the leaders of the Republican party may be thinking Rudy is more "electable" -- that he can satisfy their base on security issues without frightening, and perhaps even appealing to, moderates and swing voters beyond their hardcore conservative base on social issues.

But I wonder if this notion doesn't arise from stereotyped notions of, and some real misunderstandings about, voters beyond their base. (Stereotypes shared by many in the mainstream pundit class, too.)

For instance, it seems to be assumed, strangely I think, that voters outside the Christian Right don't vote on "values" and won't be at all disturbed by the "character" issues raised by Rudy's multiple marriages and, most especially, the very public humiliation he meted out to his second wife. Yet, it seems to me that that issue may loom even larger for voters -- women especially -- who don't, like the Republican party's base, have strongly partisan reasons to overlook it.

These same voters are less likely (than the Republican base) to find Rudy's total support for Bush's foreign policy and the Iraq War appealing, too.

And while they may find his positions on social issues less extreme than that of most other Republican candidates, whoever is the Democratic candidate is still going to have the advantage on those issues.

Perhaps Rudy can win the nomination. But I think, once voters got to know him, he'd have a very hard time winning the general election.

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Romney "oozes leadership" ??!? He might very well ooze something, but it's not leadership, as anyone from Massachusetts can tell you. He was away so much in his final year chasing presidential moonbeams that his Lieutenant Governor, Kerry Healey, could have run as the incumbent in the last election. Now that's leadership ! And let's not forget the 1.4 billion dollar deficit he left on his way out... Even if he did ooze a little leadership now & then, his demeanor oozes so much smarm & treacle that he fast wears out his welcome. Check out clips of his debates against Ted Kennedy to get some idea of that. He comes off as an over-eager hall monitor who takes breathless delight in ratting out his peers-- either that or a boy scout who misplaced his Ritalin. IMHO, like Rudy, he stands to wilt & fade fast once the spotlight finally focusses on him in a more than superficial fashion.

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There's a part of his campaign that hasn't been mentioned here, and only fleetingly in news reports. But he's obviously making a lot of promises on hot-button GOP issues -- when Vitter endorsed, he said Rudy would make the best choices in nominating judges. He's pro-choice! He obvoiusly promised Vitter he would not nominate pro-choice judges. Another recent endorsee, I've forgotten whom, noted he would be the best choice (among republicans) on opposing taxes. He was mayor of NYC and endorsed Cuomo precisely on state support for th eCity! He must have promised "no new taxes."

I think he's running around doing beyind the scenes what Romney did out in the open -- sell his political soul.

All that said, I'm praying its Rudy. No one would put the South into play for the Democrats more than Giuliani. If they really do nomiate Giuliani, and things continue as they ahve been for hte past 2 1/4 years, it could be a reallignment election.

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Agreed on the Foreign policy aspect. However, NYC has a pretty hefty operating budget and has a population greater than many states. The executive experience of an NYC mayor is pretty substantial.

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Yes, but did Giuliani look into Kerik's eyes?

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Sorry, but going "Rove" means distorting records and having front groups spread blatant lies. No need to do that for Giuliani. Reporting facts would be sufficient.

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It puts the "conservative religious voters" in a difficult situation. Voting for Giuliani essentially nullifies them when they say it's about abortion and gay marriage. If they vote for him, it's about something else. I'm interested in seeing the choice that is made and the debate that happens.

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So many comments, yet hardly anyone mentions Bernie Kerik.

Only yesterday, the Times provided a handy roundup of the state of Kerik's legal problems. The occasion was a report surfacing that about a month ago Kerik declined a federal prosecutor's plea bargain offer on tax fraud and wiretap conspiracy charges. The prosecutor is expected to move ahead to indictment. And that's not the end of Kerik's problems.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/14/nyregion/14kerik.html

I can only assume that Romney and McCain have some time in mind to begin attacking Giuliani over Kerik. Can anyone imagine them not using it at some point?

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That's it in a nutshell! Republicans really don't have anyone this time. Every Republican candidate is overwhelmed by Bush fatigue and the endless failures of Republican misrule. No fresh ideas, only the same tired hatred and fear. Their only hope is Guliani will somehow win a campaign of photo-ops that ingore every real issue facing America today.

But, there's ample precedent for that: Bush I's flag-waiving campaign over Dukakis. What was the major issue then? The flag-burning amendment! Aided and abbetted by the media empty-pants, he won.

Democrats always make the mistake of thinking the election HAS TO BE about SOME issues. It doesn't. As long as the media don't cover issues it'll be about personalities and trivia, no matter how dire the circumstances of the country are.

So,the only question is: who presents the best image. Here Guliani has the edge.

McCain imploded when Bush took his advice on the war. Even Republicans don't want someone MORE hawkish than Bush this time around. That's like wanting a bus-driver to step on the gas when the bus goes over the cliff.

Romney just isn't a front tier candidate. His wing-nut credentials are perfectly intact, except for the whole Mormonism thing which causes real Christians to shy away from him.

As for Guliani, he's simply the "best we've got." In any normal year, his support for "gun registration" would sink him like a stone before he even got started, but not today.

You can tell that Republicans are hoping to rally around the "anybody but Hillary" wagon. If Hillary is the nominee, the only credential Republicans need would be "who can stop Hillary?" Nothing else will matter.

If it's Obama, I suppose it'll be "who can stop Osama Hussein."

"He's BLAAAAACK! BLAAACK I tell you! He'll let horrible brown people in to steal your jobs!" -- This message paid for by the Swift-Boat Veterans for Truth and Guliani Committee.

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