Analyst Stuart Rothenberg, who recently stated flatly that Rudy can't win the GOP nomination, now says he isn't so sure Rudy won't win, after all:

I’ve asked a number of thoughtful political consultants, from both parties, who they think is most likely to be the GOP nominee and who is the least likely. So far, Giuliani is seen as the most likely and McCain as the least. That’s not a scientific sample or a reliable poll. But that kind of anecdotal evidence has me more confused than ever.

Of Mitt Romney, Rothenberg writes:

He is smart, articulate, telegenic and oozes leadership. But he’s changed his stands on hot-button issues over the years, and his Mormon religion will be a problem among some key Republican constituencies. Plus, his foreign policy and national security credentials are thin, at best.

If Rothenberg is wondering why Rudy is surprisingly strong, he's partly answered his own question here. Note that he observes that Romney's foreign policy credentials are thin, but doesn't make the same observation of Rudy, who's credentials in that area are every bit as thin as Romney's.

Bottom line: If insiders, reporters and commentators cede Rudy the aura of foreign policy strength based on the sole fact that he was politically fortunate enough to be Mayor of New York on Sept. 11, rather than seriously digging into his lack of a real record on foreign policy, he'll have a far better shot at the nomination. No mystery there.