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Poll: Rudy Leading Hillary In Two Of Top Three Swing States
Uh oh. A new poll finds that Rudy Giuliani is leading Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania and Florida, two of the top three swing states, while the two are locked in a virtual tie in the third key state of Ohio. The numbers from the new Quinnipiac University poll are as follows:
* Florida: Rudy 47%, Hillary 42% * Pennsylvania: Rudy 51%, Hillary 40% * Ohio: Hillary 44%-43%
Rudy fares even better against Barack Obama, holding leads in all three states. We'll bring you a link to the full poll as soon as it's available.
Update: The full poll is here. As always, the numbers from this and all other polls can be found in our TPM Poll Tracker.
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What are the #'s in NY? I'm assuming it's true blue colors will hold, but Rudy is popular there. If he beat her in NY, that would make it very difficult for the Dems to make up those lost votes elsewhere.
March 7, 2007 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
How much is all this early "success" a result of this mythic image that Guiliani gained following 9-11? Surely as the real campaigning begins, people will start looking at him with a more critical eye and these polls will shift.
Admittedly, the same could be said of Obama - people have a largely idealized image of them both right now.
March 7, 2007 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
The problem is that he would be competitive in NY so she would have to spend time and money campaigning there. Same thing with other states that Democrats usually take for granted.
The only thing Hillary Clinton has going for her is money. But how much money do these Clinton-lovers think they're going to raise for her to push her down the throats of the entire country (or 270 electoral votes)? They won't be able to raise that kind of money and let's hope they're not so stubborn that they insist on giving her the money to win the Democratic nomination.
What about the other swing states that went narrowly for Kerry in '04? How is Clinton doing in Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire polling? How about the ones that went narrowly for Bush - Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico?
Hillary Clinton could well lose them all.
March 7, 2007 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't understand how he has a "mythic image" and maybe he doesn't but he surely his credentials as a successful mayor are better than any that Hillary Clinton has to offer. There really was a difference in New York City and its not going work to try to nitpick it. 9/11 was crisis management and that resonates with Katrina. Its just going to be so hard to argue against it, mainly because people won't want to hear it.
Barack Obama has his early opposition to the war; the statement he made in 2002 was exactly right and he can run on it.
What does Hillary Clinton have? In the Senate she's accomplished nothing more than constituent service and voting wrong on the most important issue of our time. As First Lady, she messed up an opportunity to extend healthcare coverage and then what did she do? Most people only remember her travelling around to other countries with her daughter. Her career in Arkansas doesn't help her at all (cattle futures, Walmart, trying to build houses at Whitewater).
March 7, 2007 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
As I have written before, Giuliani is incredibly popular among republicans and independents here in Upstate NY. Worse, Senator Clinton's own personal baggage (the fact that her husband is a bit of a dog, her brothers' involvement in the pardon scandal, even the fact that her daughter's boyfriend's father is in jail), while not her fault will keep her from attacking Giuliani in his weakest place (the Kerik scandal, the fact that he is bit of a dog, his marital history. Also, he is much better speaker than Clinton and could be formidable in a debate. If NY, NJ, CT and NH are in play, kiss 2008 good-by. We need a candidate who simply comes without the personal baggage, so one can attack Giuliani with impunity.
March 7, 2007 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who cares? It's March 7, 2007. The polls aren't going to tell you much this early. Was Joe Lieberman still in the lead at this time last go-round?
There is no way in hell Rudy or anyone else beats the Dem in NYC. How do you see Rudy winning the GOP nomination, exactly? He really has no constituency in the GOP except for the kill 'em all folks.
March 7, 2007 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
People are making too much out of the early polls. Look, the issues haven't been debated yet, policies haven't been discussed. There are so many variables that haven't been touched in these early polls. Apart from being a former New York Mayor, what other issues do the vast majority of voters know about Rudy? Not much at all if you ask me.
These very early polls are pretty much name recognition polls.
March 7, 2007 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Keep in mind, if Rudy's the nominee, then the Repubs can't run against Hillary's "baggage." Also, I'd like to remind everyone that Rudy is at his peak right now, and his unfavorables are only going to go up substantially. Two-thirds of Repubs don't even know he's pro-choice or supports gun control. And his tenure as mayor wasn't all sweetness and light. Don't forget his response to the Patrick Diamond shooting, etc.
I'm not trying to say he won't be formidable, and he is a very good speaker, but he has weaknesses to be exploited like any candidate.
March 7, 2007 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought delivering for her New York constituents was what Hillary's supposed to do. BTW, Obama is doing worse against Rudy than Hillary, which frankly surpises me given all the great press he's gotten and the attacks she's gotten.
Oh, and thank you for buying into all the Repub talking points about Hillary. Obama doesn't, so why should you?
March 7, 2007 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
These poll results do serve to challenge Clinton's image of inevitability and electability and may allow other candididates to receive more serious consideration in Iowa. Unlike 2004, perhaps this time Dems can pick the candidate whose positions they support rather than the wishy-washy candidate deemed more electable by conventional wisdom.
March 7, 2007 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please, Rudy and Obama are getting extremely positive press coverage so far while Hillary has been slammed by all corners left and right.
No worry here. The rudy flag is flying high it seems because the straight-talk express is being blown up by IED as we speak. Rudy already gets testy about this family mess and we have not heard abou this mob ties in NY yet.
Keep in mind that Rudy has pledged to continue Bush's doctrine but the people have not heard him say it publicly yet. All these polls do not mean anything. Be patient ppl, still long way to go and the rudy flag will subbside once he opens his mouth.
March 7, 2007 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
And the Democrats can't run against Giuliani's baggage if Clinton is the nominee. So what's she got left? He was a better mayor and a better US attorney than she's been a US Senator, a First Lady or a lawyer.
March 7, 2007 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not FOR Giuliani over any other Democratic candidate but Hillary Clinton. HOWEVER! WHAT family mess? Do you remember Nancy Reagan and the stories about her and her stepchildren? No one in that family was close and it didn't matter. There is a very misplaced idea that somehow some other candidate, some Republican, will vindicate Bill Clinton and look like just as much of a rotter as he was. Not going to happen. People see that its an apples and oranges comparison.
If Giuliani gets blown out of the race, it'll be over the abortion issue (and then the Republican candidate will be someone far worse to my way of thinking) and would still likely win over Hillary Clinton.
March 7, 2007 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't open the poll link, but I'll bet you anything Edwards does better than either of them against Rudy. Time to think about the "e" word (electability) again folks.
What a weird situation. I still can't imagine Rudy winning the GOP nomination. Primary voters are just too conservative. The only way I can see him squeezing through would be if the other candidates decide to preserve their favorables for another run by not going after the frontrunner, like Edwards did in 04. I can sort of see Romney doing that, but certainly not McCain, for whom this is his last gasp, let alone Gingrich.
March 7, 2007 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh. I just figured out how to open the link.
OK folks, this is a crap poll. It's a general election poll (so no screen for primary voters) and it's registered voters. So these results are not surprising at all. This is a name ID plus first-blush image reading. Likely voters are going to be in a different place.
March 7, 2007 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with your characterization of this poll. Because it is primarily based on name ID and general impressions, it is not surprising that Rudy and Hillary run strongest in this poll; both are almost universally known. Here is my attempt to handicap the race:
Rudy is at his high water mark, both with Repubs and with the overall electorate. His policy positions are unknown, his personal history is unknown, questions about his performance as mayor and about his complete lack of legislative or foriegn policy experience have not been raised. It is hard to see him doing well in places like Iowa and SC, and hard to see him as acceptable to the conservative base. He would be tough in a general election, but how tough is very hard to judge at this point.
Hillary has high favorables among Dems, that is why she is polling first in all the Dem primary polls. However, she has very high unfavorables with Repubs and Indies which make her very vulnerable in a general. Hillary's support among Dems is broad but shallow, if she looses her "inevitability glow" to either Obama or Edwards, she is toast.
McCain has high unfavorables among likely GOP primary voters which explains why the wheels are falling off the bus.
Obama has the highest crossover appeal to indies and Rs. Some of this is due to his "freshness" and would likely fade under the onslaught of GOP attacks, but much of his crossover appeal is because of tone (authentic), message(less partisan), issues (right on the war), and biography (less baggage). Obama has the most room to grow his support over the next six to nine months. He needs to show he is ready and the polls have to show that the country is ready on the racial identity question.
Romney has a chance to beat Rudy if he he can consolidate his support among the GOP establishment and the conservative base. I think he has a chance to become the "un-Rudy," meaning only viable conservative alternative, for the GOP over the next six months. His big problems are overcoming distrust of his LDS background and the fact that he has had to do multiple flip-flops throughout his career.
Edwards' position is hardest to read IMO. He has the right look and skills. He has national campaign experience and a strong organization in the early states. He has positioned himself as within the Dem mainstream but with strong populist and progressive tendencies. He should have a strong electability argument, being a white, male from the South. All of this is good, but so far, he seems to be having difficulty getting much traction. Whether he can raise enough money or gain enough momentum in the early states to compete with Obama an HRC is highly questionable.
In summary, Obama is my first choice with Edwards as a capable back-up. I expect Romney to gain strength over the next few months and Rudy to fade when he gets close examination from GOP primary voters in the first few states.
March 8, 2007 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink