A day after House Dems passed their Iraq withdrawal bill, a new poll shows that more Americans think the war wasn't worth fighting; more are disgusted with Bush's performance in Iraq; more are in favor of withdrawal even if civil order isn't restored there; and more (a majority of respondents) back setting a withdrawal deadline than ever before.

The new ABC News poll finds:

* Sixty-four percent now say the war in Iraq was not worth fighting, up six points from last month to a new numerical high.

* Sixty-seven percent now disapprove of Bush's Iraq performance; 55 percent disapprove strongly.

* Fifty-six percent now say U.S. forces should be withdrawn at some point even if civil order has not been restored in Iraq.

* Fifty-three percent support setting a withdrawal date, up from 39 percent in late 2005 and from 47 percent last summer.

Via Atrios.

In a news analysis piece today, The New York Times gets it right, arguing that the successful passage of the House Iraq bill yesterday showcases Democratic unity and represents an early success at corralling the party's majority at a complex and high-stakes moment:

[W]hatever the flaws of the plan approved Friday, it is a Democratic plan, and one that received a strikingly — some would say shockingly — unified vote from House Democrats. Republicans did not make it easy; only two voted for the measure. But Democrats produced the 216 other votes from their own ranks, mindful that this was simply a must-win for Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the party as a whole. If only for this vote, the Democrats overcame the longstanding divisions over national security that critics love to highlight as “Democrats in disarray.”...

...the vote did several things for the Democrats. It was a sharp rebuke to the president, a clear message that “his policy of more troops, more money and more time has overstayed its welcome,” as Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, the Democratic caucus chairman, said after the vote. It established a tough initial stance for the legislative bargaining that will follow, on Capitol Hill and with the Bush administration.

It also demonstrated the evolution of the Democrats into a governing party that considers itself on equal footing with the executive branch and is willing to challenge President Bush on an array of fronts.

Yep. A critical victory at a critical time. It'll be interesting to see where it leads. Now it's the Senate's turn.

Here's a really interesting postscript to the House Dems' successful passage of the Iraq withdrawal bill today:

This morning, when Dems met behind closed doors to get ready for the vote, members gave a standing ovation to the three key liberals who helped make this bill possible: Barbara Lee, Lynn Woolsey and Maxine Waters.

The kicker: All three were preparing to vote against the bill, and everyone there suspected as much -- but the three were applauded anyway.

The scene -- which was recounted in Congress Daily (sub. only) and confirmed to me by a Hill source -- was a reminder of the strange route House Dems took to passage of this milestone bill. As reported here yesterday, the three key liberal members decided at the last minute to back the bill. But because they wanted to oppose the bill themselves as a matter of conscience because it lacked the tough language enforcing withdrawal that they wanted, they went to other liberal members of the Out of Iraq caucus and let them know that they'd have no problem if they voted for it.

"These three went and got enough other votes to provide a margin of victory beyond their own three No votes," the source says. Thus the standing ovation for them.

Moral of the story: Though turning this bill into law still remains an uphill battle at best, today's events reveal that progressive Dems in Congress managed to hew to their principles and play the politics of the system shrewdly. "These Members of Congress played hardball from the beginning," David Sirota wrote, referring to the liberal House Dems. "And because of their efforts, progressive Democrats have not only brought the war closer to an end, but they have become one of the most powerful blocs in the U.S. Congress."

Meanwhile, the sense of relief is palpable among House Dem staffers today. As my Hill source put it: "We averted at least three permutations of potential disaster today."

Is the GOP in danger of permanently losing its onetime advangage on a core electoral issue? A new poll finds that Democrats are more trusted than Republicans to handle the generic issue of "national security" — suggesting that the Iraq War has wiped out the Republican Party's edge in this area. The new Rasmussen poll asked respondents: "Which political party do you trust more to handle national security?" Forty-six percent of respondents chose the Democrats, while only 44% picked the Republicans. This isn't a single outlier, either: Rasmussen has repeatedly put the Democrats with an advantage on the issue since the Fall elections. If other pollsters confirm Rasmussen's findings, how much longer will it take before the pundits stop reflexively spouting the "Dems = Weak, GOP = Strong" narrative?

Here's a really interesting postscript to the House Dems' successful passage of the Iraq withdrawal today:

This morning, when Dems met behind closed doors to get ready for the vote, members gave a standing ovation to the three key liberals who helped make this bill possible: Barbara Lee, Lynn Woolsey and Maxine Waters.

The kicker: All three were preparing to vote against the bill, and everyone there suspected as much -- but the three were applauded anyway.

The scene -- which was recounted in Congress Daily (sub only) and confirmed to me by a Hill source -- was a reminder of the strange route House Dems took to passage of this milestone bill. As reported here yesterday, the three key liberal members decided at the last minute to back the bill. But because they wanted to oppose the bill themselves as a matter of conscience because it lacked the tough language enforcing withdrawal that they wanted, they went to other liberal members of the Out of Iraq caucus and let them know that they'd have no problem if they voted for it.

"These three went and got enough other votes to provide a margin of victory beyond their own three No votes," the source says. Thus the standing ovation for them.

Moral of the story: Though turning this bill into law still remains an uphill battle at best, today's events reveal that progressive Dems in Congress managed to hew to their principles and play the politics of the system shrewdly -- a balancing act that's long proven elusive for some on the left. "These Members of Congress played hardball from the beginning," David Sirota writes referring to the liberal House Dems. "And because of their efforts, progressive Democrats have not only brought the war closer to an end."

Meanwhile, the sense of relief is palpable among House Dem staffers today now that Speaker Nancy Pelosi has pulled off a victory in her first major test of leadership. "I'm taking your call, but you should know you're standing between me and a well-deserved drink," the Hill source told me. "We averted at least three permutations of potential disaster today."

Time for some staff notes, junkies: Former Howard Dean pollster Paul Maslin has agreed to join Bill Richardson's Presidential campaign, I've confirmed.

The oft-quoted Maslin was Dean's pollster from March 2003 to the conclusion of Dean's Presidential campaign nearly a year later. Reached for confirmation, Maslin confirmed he'd agreed to join the Richardson campaign but declined to comment further.

"Maslin's a big get for Richardson," a Dem who's worked with Maslin says. "He's got real live Presidential campaign experience, and he's one of the smarter guys out there." Maslin -- whose firm is called Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Associates -- also worked for the aborted Presidential campaign of Senator Evan Bayh and has worked for a host of other high-profile elected officials, including Senator Patty Murray of Washington and former Governor Gray Davis of California.

Check out this video that just went out to Hillary donors and supporters featuring Bill Clinton making a fundraising appeal for Hillary. In another sign of how urgently the campaigns are working to post huge money numbers at the end of this quarter, Bill wraps things up by asking viewers to send in a contribution. "And please -- do it by the March 31st deadline."

In other video/Hillary news, Ben Smith reports that Dick Morris has pulled out of a plan to help produce an anti-Hillary flick.

Buried in a new batch of American Research Group polls released today is an intriguing number: Former Senator Fred Thompson, who's considering entering the Presidential race, would edge out Mitt Romney for third place in Iowa. The poll finds that Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are tied for first place at 29% each, while Thompson is in third with 12% and Romney is in fourth with 10%.

The number is potentially troublesome for Romney, because if Thompson were to enter the campaign then he would be grabbing for the mantle of the only real conservative in the race — the same niche that Romney is vying for.

Get your updates on the movements on the Presidential candidates right here, while they're hot:

* Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama, Sen. Chris Dodd and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson will each speak at a rally today in Las Vegas, Nevada kicking off the local Culinary Workers Union's contract negotiations. On Saturday, those candidates, plus former Sen. John Edwards, former Sen. Mike Gravel and Rep. Dennis Kucinich will participate in the New Leadership on Health Care presidential forum hosted by the Service Employees International Union and the Center for American Progress. You can submit questions for the candidates through Think Progress.

* Turns out the man who made the anti-Hillary "1984" spot may have done some work on Barack Obama's website after all. Phillip De Vellis, who made the ad and used to work for one of Obama's internet consultants, Blue State Digital, wrote an email on Feb. 10 saying "I designed the MyBarack Obama toolbox that is on the front page and all the sidebar pages." Ben Smith has the full email.

* The Florida House of Representatives voted this week to move the state's primary up from early March to Jan. 29, leap-frogging the "Super Tuesday" primary set for Feb. 5 that will see more than 20 other states cast their nominating ballots. The State Senate is expected to follow suit according to Gov. Charlie Crist.

* Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani's views on gun control have, um, shifted since he began his run for President. As the Mayor of the largest city in the country, Giuliani was a staunch advocate for a national assault weapons ban, but now his campaign says it is unclear that he would support the same measure. “If there was a federal assault weapons ban up right now that he had to make a decision on, I honestly don’t know where he would stand,” Anthony V. Carbonetti, a senior adviser, told the New York Times

* In other news of Giuliani's socially liberal past, the Log Cabin Republicans, an organization of gay GOPers, sees the former Mayor "as a model for its brand of Republicanism." The group has supported Giuliani in the past, but if they support him this year in the primaries, it could cost him with socially conservative voters. In the past, Republican candidates have avoided the group during the primaries, including in 1996 when Bob Dole returned donations from the organization in order to calm the right-wing. He changed course on the donation after recieving the nomination.

* And yes, Rudy Giuliani's third and current wife, Judith, has also been married three times, though until today it was previously believed that Rudy was only her second husband.

More after the jump.

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Wow, talk about a close shave. The final margin of passage in the House for the Democratic bill on Iraq was 218 Yes, 212 No — the exact number of Yes votes needed to guarantee passage with all members voting. Here's a quick breakdown.

Democrats voting against the measure:

John Barrow, Georgia Dan Boren, Oklahoma Lincoln Davis, Tennessee Dennis Kucinich, Ohio Barbara Lee, California John Lewis, Georgia Jim Marshall, Georgia Jim Matheson, Utah Mike McNulty, New York Mike Michaud, Maine Gene Taylor, Mississippi Maxine Waters, California Diane Watson, California Lynn Woolsey, California

Republicans voting for it:

Wayne Gilchrest, Maryland Walter Jones, North Carolina

Members missing the vote:

Paul Kanjorski, D-Pennsylvania Mel Watt, D-North Carolina Jo Ann Davis, R-Virginia (Note: Rep. Davis was recently diagnosed with a recurrence of breast cancer. It is possible that she may have missed the vote in order to address her medical needs.)

President Bush has scheduled a presser for 1:45 to respond.

Just happened. The House of Representatives has passed a bill that would mandate withdrawal from Iraq by Fall 2008.

It was mighty close -- 218-212, with one member voting "present."

Of course, this is only the beginning -- there are lots of reasons why this particular bill will probably never become law. But it's a milestone of sorts nonetheless.

We'll bring you the roll call as soon as we have it.

Update: The roll call is here.

They're voting as we speak. Current tally: 181 in favor, 133 opposed.

In a move that could provide Hillary Clinton with major organizational support in the key caucus state of Iowa, Former Iowa Governor and brief Presidential candidate Tom Vilsack will be endorsing her at an event in Des Moines this Monday, the Associated Press reports, quoting unnamed officials.

"Vilsack and his wife, Christie, planned to make the endorsement on Monday when the New York senator will be in the state, the officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because of the planned formal statement next week," the AP says.

Tom Vilsack's backing comes with an added bonus: His wife, Christie Vilsack, who has a proven track record as a king-maker in the state. In 2004, her support of John Kerry's trailing primary campaign helped propel him to a come-from-behind victory in the Iowa caucus.

"When I look back at the storms, if I had had the knowledge that I would be treated as a pariah by the national Republicans in office, I would have joined the Republican Party to save my state. Then I would have been hugged and kissed and lifted, and I would have been declared the best governor in this whole country. I wish I had realized that earlier. I think that was the fatal error."

— Louisiana Democratic Governor Kathleen Blanco, quoted in The Shreveport Times, commenting on her political decline since Hurricane Katrina and her recent decision to not seek reelection.

So it looks as if Bill's weighing in on Hillary's war vote again. A reporter for The Hill managed to listen in on a conference call yesterday between Bill Clinton and assorted Hillary supporters and fundraisers. The paper reports that Clinton sharply questioned Barack Obama's antiwar bona fides while complaining that it's "just not fair" to say that Hillary's war vote meant she supported the conflict. From The Hill:

Speaking to hundreds of supporters on conference call, the former president said, “I don’t have a problem with anything Barack Obama [has] said on this,” but “to characterize Hillary and Obama’s positions on the war as polar opposites is ludicrous.

“This dichotomy that’s been set up to allow him to become the raging hero of the anti-war crowd on the Internet is just factually inaccurate."...

“It’s just not fair to say that people who voted for the resolution wanted war,” Clinton said.

The former president also quoted an interview with Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) in this month’s GQ magazine, explaining that Hagel’s justification for his vote on the war is very similar to Hillary Clinton’s. “All these people who criticize Hillary all the time all love Hagel for being a critic of the war,” Clinton said....

The exchange prompted a quick reaction from Obama’s camp, in the form of an e-mail that campaign manager David Plouffe sent to supporters to draw a distinction between the two candidates’ war records...

“Millions of people have tuned into this presidential race wondering who will provide the leadership to end this war and the judgment to avoid strategic disasters like this in the first place,” the e-mail said.

This is going to be news today, we predict. The rest here.

It looks like Mitt Romney's efforts to woo the Christian Right in key primary states are starting to pay off -- he's now picked up the backing of two key religious right leaders in Iowa and South Carolina.

The Associated Press reports that Romney's campaign has signed up Drew McKissick, the national secretary of the Christian Coalition and the co-chairman of the South Carolina GOP's rules committee, as a paid adviser. Meanwhile, the Romney campaign has just announced an endorsement from Joe Earle, immediate past Director of Outreach with the Iowa Christian Alliance.

Gallup takes a look at its polling data and concludes that the demographic group most supportive of Hillary is women aged 18-49 by a huge margin. She gets the support of 43% of this group -- while only getting the backing of 27% of men in the same age bracket. However, the poll also finds that she's failed thus far to build such levels of support among older women, suggesting a strategic dilemma for the campaign.

"All in all, Clinton's campaign consultants presumably have already made or will need to make a strategic decision concerning the campaign's gender focus," Gallup says. "One approach -- borrowing from the Karl Rove playbook of campaign strategy -- would be to focus on her area of strength and push to gain disproportionate turnout among younger women. Another approach would be to focus on addressing the attitudes and concerns of older women and Democratic men in an attempt to tilt their campaign preference more toward her candidacy."

It's official: Less than 24 hours before the House Dem Iraq supplemental spending bill is set to go to a vote, the key liberal House Dems holding out against the bill have decided to back it, making its passage far more likely.

According to a source familiar with the negotiations, key liberal members today broke down and decided they couldn't get in the way of a bill that, for all its alleged flaws, does put a date on the end of the war. The legislation would force a pullout by Fall 2008 at the latest. According to a source, three key House liberals -- Reps. Barabara Lee, Lynne Woolsey, and Maxine Waters -- privately approached Speaker Nancy Pelosi today and asked how many votes the leadership needed to pass the bill. They were told that four votes were needed.

The three then went to other liberal holdouts and encouraged them to support the bill, the source says. The source adds that the leadership is all but certain to now have the votes it needs. Lee explained her conversion this way in a press release just out from the liberals: "I have struggled with this decision, but I finally decided that, while I cannot betray my conscience, I cannot stand in the way of passing a measure that puts a concrete end date on this unnecessary war."

One Hill staffer confided that the liberals realized that they'd be better off backing the bill, because it would keep them at the negotiating table, rather than rendering them pariahs -- allowing them to have greater influence over the future debates that will inevitably unfold around future House measures to stop the war. "The liberals are in a stronger position now to push for tougher measures against the war down the road," the source said.

Full press release from the liberals after the jump.

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"America is seen as a country by too many that wants to have war, or exercises its power too much, pushes its weight around too much."

Who said those words? Dennis Kucinich? Russ Feingold? Some other left-wing Democrat? Nope — it was Republican Presidential frontrunner Rudy Giuliani. He said it in the context of arguing to a group of newspaper reporters that he thinks it's a bad idea to refer to the battle against terrorism as the "War On Terror," because it casts our country in a bad light globally, CNN reports.

Rudy later clarified his remarks: "This is a terrorist war against us. We've got to keep reminding ourselves of the fact that they are in various parts of the world planning to come here and attack us or attack us overseas." His clarification aside, however, one has to wonder how the national media, pundits, and conservative politicians would react if a Democrat made the same remark.

So it now looks as if the now-infamous anti-Hillary Clinton, pro-Barack Obama "1984" Web video may have backfired badly againts its creator's intention — at least, if a new poll is to be believed.

The new Zogby Interactive poll found that the video had no effect on the preferences of two thirds of likely Democratic primary voters. And even worse, the remaining one third were three times as likely to prefer Clinton after seeing it.

Key footnote: Eleven percent of self-described Obama supporters said they were offended by it and that it made them more likely to support Hillary, though such a number is necessarily inconclusive, representing a very small number of the poll's respondents.

Obama has adamantly denied being behind the video, and indeed it has since emerged that the Obama supporter who made it says the campaign had no knowledge of it whatsoever.

Here's Barack Obama with an equally touching tribute to Elizabeth Edwards on the front page of his Website, too:

Classy. Hillary Clinton responds to the riveting Edwards press conference today with a personal note on the front page of her campaign Web site:

Get your updates on the movements of the Presidential candidates right here, while they're hot:

* Sen. Joe Biden told the Associated Press that he expects to report between three and four million in fundraising when campaign finance reports are due at the end of March, and that he is confident he can raise another 25 million to take him through the early caucuses.

* In another example of his past closet liberalism, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney not only endorsed Rocky Anderson, the pro-gay marriage and pro-choice Democratic Mayor of Salt Lake City, Utah, in 2003, but he also appeared in a TV ad for the campaign, saying that "Salt Lake City is a better place because of Rocky."

* Richard Land, the President of the Southern Baptist Convention's Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, says former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who have both been divorced twice, will have the hardest time reconciling their multiple marriages with Evangelical Christians. "Three is one marriage too many for them," said Land, referring to the 16.4 million members of the Southern Baptist Convention.

* Gingrich, for his part, weighed in yesterday on the now-infamous "1984" anti-Clinton ad, saying that it is the “‘Entertainment Tonight’ version of governing a great country” and is "utterly, totally destructive of the process of thought.”

* Acerbic radio host Don Imus has rescinded his "fat sissy" and "fat baby" descriptions of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson after the Governor got the New Mexico state legislature to put up $600,000 for a school renovation project near Imus' New Mexico ranch. Imus had ripped into Richardson last month over the lack of state fund's for the project, even saying in Spanish that Richardson could kiss his hindquarters -- "Beso mi culo!" After Richardson appropriated the cash, Imus said "no more 'Beso mi culo, gordo. Now it's Bill Richardson for president."

* Following criticism from gay rights groups over his hesitancy to say that homosexuality is not "immoral," Sen. Barack Obama is now forming a gay advisory panel, though his campaign claims the plan was in the works before the uproar.

More after the jump.

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Finally — Rudy Giuliani, a former U.S. Attorney himself, has spoken out about the Attorney Purge. The Associated Press quotes Rudy as follows: "The President has addressed it. The Attorney General's an honorable man. He's a decent man. He should be given a chance to explain and everybody should sort of give him the benefit of the doubt and allow him to explain."

As noted here some time ago, Rudy is the only Presidential candidate with experience as a U.S. Attorney — experience which uniquely qualified him to weigh in on this topic. But those expecting real insight from Rudy on the subject may be disappointed by his conclusion: "We should try to remove on both sides as much of the partisanship as possible."

It looks like Mitt Romney's efforts to woo the Christian Right in key primary states are starting to pay off -- he's now picked up the backing of two key religious right leaders in Iowa and South Carolina.

The Associated Press reports that Romney's campaign has signed up Drew McKissick, the national secretary of the Christian Coalition and the co-chairman of the South Carolina GOP's rules committee, as a paid adviser. Meanwhile, the Romney campaign has just announced an endorsement from Joe Earle, immediate past Director of Outreach with the Iowa Christian Alliance.

Okay, John Edwards just confirmed it: Earlier stories saying that he was "suspending" his campaign were flat out wrong.

Asked by a reporter at the press conference if those were accurate, Edwards answered flatly: "No...the campaign goes on."

Edwards also said that Elizabeth's sickness wouldn't lead them to "cower in a corner," adding: "We leave here, this press conference, to go to New York and Boston and California tomorrow. Together."

So there you have it.

So Edwards is saying right now at his press conference, adding that it's "completely treatable."

CNN is reporting that the Edwards campaign is disputing the story in The Politico saying that John Edwards is suspending his campaign. We'll know what's up within minutes.

MSNBC adds more:

WASHINGTON - Democrat John Edwards is suspending his campaign for the presidency, and may drop out completely, because his wife has suffered a recurrence of the cancer that sickened her in 2004, when she was diagnosed with breast cancer, sources said Thursday.

A prominent Iowa Democrat told Norah O’Donnell of NBC News that Edwards’ campaign has begun calling supporters in Iowa and telling them that he will suspend his presidential bid and started canceling upcoming events in Iowa.

Meanwhile, the Edwards' press conference, scheduled for noon, has been delayed slightly.

So says Ben Smith:

John Edwards is suspending his campaign for President, and may drop out completely, because his wife has suffered a recurrence of the cancer that sickened her in 2004, when she was diagnosed with breast cancer, an Edwards friend told The Politico.

Smith's full story here. We're seeking confirmation.

Update: Ben issues an apology.

So says Ben Smith:

John Edwards is suspending his campaign for President, and may drop out completely, because his wife has suffered a recurrence of the cancer that sickened her in 2004, when she was diagnosed with breast cancer, an Edwards friend told The Politico.

"At a minimum he's going to suspend" the campaign, the source said. "Nobody knows precisely how serious her recurrence is. It’ll be another couple of days before there’s complete clarity."

"For him right now he has one priority which is her health and the security of the two young children," said the friend.

As for the campaign, "You don't shut this machine off completely, but everything will go on hold."

Seeking confirmation.

The Democratic Party's big wins in 2006 in Ohio may be setting the stage for a strong run by the Democratic Presidential nominee in this key swing state in 2008, a new poll finds.

The new Quinnipiac poll finds that the top three Dem primary candidates are generally running ahead of the top three Republican candidates in head-to-head matchups:

Clinton (D) 46%, Giuliani (R) 43%
Obama (D) 42%, Giuliani (R) 42%
Edwards (D) 43%, Giuliani (R) 42%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 42%
Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 37%
Edwards (D) 45%, McCain (R) 37%
Clinton (D) 51%, Romney (R) 32%
Obama (D) 51%, Romney (R) 26%
Edwards (D) 53%, Romney (R) 26%

Meanwhile, in the Dem primary matchup Hillary is hanging onto a 10-point lead over Barack Obama, 32%-22%, with Al Gore at 14% and John Edwards at 11%. On the GOP side Giuliani is comfortably ahead of Mccain, 31% to 20%, with all other Republicans languishing below 10% (though with 23% of GOP primary voters undecided, there's plenty of room for movement).

Tough words. Today's New York Times strongly endorses the House Dem spending bill on Iraq, which would impose benchmarks on the Iraqi government and mandate withdrawal by Fall 2008 at the latest. The editorial is sharply dismissive of critics who accuse the House of wanting to "micromanage" the war:

"If Mr. Bush were willing to grasp Iraq’s horrifying reality, he would be the one imposing benchmarks, timetables and readiness rules. He will not, so Congress must. American troops should not be trapped in the middle of a blood bath that neither Mr. Bush nor Iraq’s leaders have the vision or the will to halt."

Full editorial after the jump.

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Is Edwards dropping out of the Presidential race because of his wife's health? That's what many in the political world are wondering now that he's scheduled a noon press conference with his wife for today -- a day after the couple visited doctors monitoring Ms. Edwards recovery from cancer.

"The campaign had said Mrs. Edwards, 57, had a follow-up appointment Wednesday to a routine test she had Monday," reports the Associated Press. "The campaign explained that she had similar follow-ups in the past but they always resulted in a clean bill of health. The campaign refused to describe what happened this time."

The New York Times adds this: "Mrs. Edwards, in a brief interview from her home in Chapel Hill, N.C., said she and Mr. Edwards would discuss her health at the news conference, but she declined to elaborate."

With the House vote on the big Iraq supplemental spending bill mandating withdrawal by Fall 2008 set for tomorrow, the behind-the-scenes brinkmanship in the Caucus really is on full boil right now, with tensions running excruciatingly high.

A few key developments:

* GOP Rep. James Walsh, who's being hammered relentlessly by MoveOn-sponsored ads and blog attacks, is nonetheless going to vote No on the bill tomorrow, his spokesman tells Election Central. The spokesman, Dan Gage, says: "Unless there's some major change, he's a No vote. He's not uncommitted. He's not undecided."

* The House Dem leadership has simply ceased reaching out to three of the leading liberals opposed to the bill -- Reps. Lynne Woolsey, Barbara Lee, and Maxine Waters. "There's been no interaction for days," one Hill source confides. Another source suggests it's "because they're lost causes." Meanwhile, Reps. Dennis Kucinich and John Lewis, the Civil Rights icon, are "beyond gone," a third source says, meaning there's no hope of winning them over.

* These key liberals, for their part, have stopped reaching out to the Dem leadership, too -- infuriating people in favor of passing the legislation who insist that a deal would have been possible with a little more flexibility on their part. Sources complain that none of these liberals -- who say the bill lacks a real mechanism for forcing withdrawal -- is willing to reach out to the leadership because none wants to look prepared to compromise with the leadership.

"None of them wants to be the one making a deal with `the man,'" one source says ruefully. "None of them wants to be outflanked on the left. None of them wants to be `outprincipled' -- being seen as the one who is willing to compromise."

Despite all this, House Dem leaders are predicting that the bill will pass by a razor-thin margin. Tune in tomorrow.

Update: The vote has now been postponed until Friday, with debate on the House floor beginning on Thursday.

Don't miss this one: We've now got video of our quote of the day, in which Al Gore explains global warming to science skeptic and Texas GOP Rep. Joe Barton. Gore: "The planet has a fever. If your baby has a fever, you go to the doctor. If the doctor says, 'You have to intervene here,' you don't say, 'Well, I read a science fiction novel that says this isn't important.'" It's a good one. Check it out here.

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Don't miss this video of Gore tearing a hole in global warming skeptic and Texas GOP Congressman Joe Burton:

Click To Play