Rothenberg To Dems: Aim For 60 Senate Seats By 2010
Stuart Rothenberg's new column in Roll Call has some big-thinking advice for the Democratic Party: Aim for a 60-seat majority in the Senate by 2010. "A strong ’08 could put the party in sight of a 60-seat majority in 2010, and that filibuster-proof majority would change the rules of the game on Capitol Hill," Rothenberg says. Though Rothenberg acknowledges that such thinking is "odd and premature," he makes a pretty good case that Dems have reason to be optimistic about the cycles ahead:
• Of the 67 Senate seats up in the next two cycles, Democrats currently hold only 27, while Republicans must defend 40.
• Republicans have tough seats to defend in 2008 in Colorado, New Hampshire and Maine, plus potential retirements in Virginia, New Mexico, Nebraska, Mississippi and North Carolina.
• Rothenberg sees few openings for Republicans in 2008 — most of the Dem seats up for election are in blue states. To regain control, their best scenario would involve holding all their seats, plus defeating Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, and keeping the Presidency for a 50-50 tie.
Rothenberg's conclusion: "The 2008 presidential results and unknowable events over the next few years could change the political equation completely, denying Democrats an opportunity to keep their majority, let alone grow it to 60. But given the makeup of the three Senate classes, party strategists would be foolish not to be thinking about the arithmetic even now."
These sorts of analyses drive me crazy because they ignore the structural advantages that favor the Republicans. Unless there is a tightening of campaign finance laws (and we are going in the opposite direction) and a change in the increasing dominance of tv, radio and increasingly print (esp at local level) by conservative leaning outlets, its going to get harder not easier for Dems to win Senate seats, let alone pull down 5 seats each of the next two cycles.
Rothenberg is often very reasonable in his assessments but this seems to me crazy.
February 12, 2007 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent idea...With full democratic control of the Congress it would be possible to put the executive branch back into its Constitutional Box and limit the concept of Unitary Presidency. With 40 Republican seats up for grabs it makes real sense to ride the anti- Republican sentiment and truly take over the Senate and further embellish the House. Yes, spend the campaign funds on the Senate and House races and let the presidential candidates fend for themselves.
February 12, 2007 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the "conventional wisdom" that Gord Smith is safe with the Oregon electorate, but it's not actually clear that it's true.
Arlen Specter's health is being ignored but precarious. We may have a resignation and an appointed Democrat taking his place in the next year or two.
McCain will probably try to keep up with the Senate and run his Presidential campaign. But his health isn't great either.
It's fairly obvious that Democrats will pick up Senate seats in '08- it's so very hard to see a Republican turnaround. Arguably the very best Republicans can hope for is a stalemate in national opinion, which would probably still net cost them a seat or two. It's quite possible at this point that Democrats will maintain their 55-45 national generic edge (reflecting a 50-40 advantage in baselines of support) and run the table as in '06, picking up around eight seats. Their ceiling is a gain of around 12 seats.
Rothenberg's 60 Democrats after '10 might even be a bit low, given how fully the Bush Presidency has expended the Republican Party. Younger Republican Senators are losing elections and their retirees are not replaced in Blue States. Their contingent from Border and marginally Republican states is aging and has few compelling Republican replacements in sight. Only their Deep Southern bloc is doing well. It's perhaps rather a lot like the situation of the aged conservative Senate Democrats of the early 1990s- there isn't a real question whether they're leaving the stage or whether they're past their usefulness as a group. It's only about the form of it, about about gaming and gambling their small residual usefulness to their electorates.
February 12, 2007 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but will a Democratic Congress "put the executive branch back into its Constitutional Box" if the President is a Democrat? Roughly around 2000-never.
One-party control overriding checks and balances was what got us in this mess. Presuming the Democrats will do better at defending the Constitution against presumptive political gain just out of the goodness of their hearts seems foolhardy.
Recall, the whole reason the Administration's power was left unfettered was because it looked to Republicans in Congress like George W. Bush's wave of popularity would carry them to eternal victory. Maybe the Democrats are better poised to learn from history, but I'd like to see evidence first.
February 12, 2007 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can anyone point to a past political prediction that projected even 2 years into the future that turned out to be reasonably accurate?
February 12, 2007 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
A return to the fairness doctrine would effectively neutralize the conservative dominance of TV and radio.
Since TV and radio pretty much set the agenda for news providers, the neutralizing of conservative TV and radio would over time have a similar reaction on newspapers - assuming there are any remaining.
February 13, 2007 3:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
davep:
Does this 2001 story from The Onion count?
Bush: 'Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over'
February 13, 2007 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Bernie Sanders will win a senate seat." They said that for years. :)
February 13, 2007 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
There’s a diary concerning a Democratic surge in 2008 over at the Daily Kos
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/1/18/173915/814
It’s worth reading some of the comments on that diary, as they speak to the question of which Presidential candidate appears to have the most potential of leading to a huge victory in 2008.
The diary also links to this excellent January 18 article on this subject at the Fighting Dems website:
http://fighting-dems.us/Newsletter/2007/01/18/the-great-democratic-landslide-of-2008/
February 13, 2007 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink