Report: Gilmore Push-Polling In Iowa
Is former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore push-polling as part of his underdog campaign for the White House? Bob Novak reports that Gilmore's organization is using the tactic — which asks respondents loaded questions intended to create a negative impression about other candidates — in Iowa. The kicker? It's working:
Before the "push" element of Gilmore's poll, the unadulterated results showed McCain leading in Iowa with 33 percent, followed by Giuliani at 31.5 percent and Romney at 8.8 percent (the unknown Gilmore took just 1.3 percent). That the pollsters could cause so much movement by pushing — or "informing" — respondents that McCain opposed tax cuts, Romney took a pro-choice abortion stance in Massachusetts, and Giuliani supported Democratic Gov. Mario Cuomo's re-election in New York, for example, is very telling as to just how committed voters are to the "big three," even the ones who say they support them. Giuliani dropped by nine points with pushing, Romney lost five points (McCain actually rose 2 points).Then the pushers went to work projecting Gilmore as a tax-cutting, job-creating governor of Virginia, head of a congressionally appointed commission on terrorism, chairman of the Republican National Committee and a National Rifle Association member. With that buildup, Gilmore finished first, well ahead of the field. That suggests that, under the current conditions, a campaign knocking down the conservative credentials of the "big three" could make a nominee out of even a long shot such as Gilmore — at least theoretically.
It's posible that Gilmore isn't doing the loaded poll just to smear the other candidates, but is genuinely testing a message and seeing how voters would receive it, in hopes of exploiting what Novak calls a "conservative void" in the race — the questionable right-wing credentials of the leading candidates.
Novak's conclusion: "The lesson is that the prominent coverage of the 'big three' is by no means an indicator that they will remain out front. The conservative void on the Republican side is simply too great. Nature abhors a vacuum, as does the political world."















Push polling is scummy and Gilmore is a long-time scum bag in good standing. It may hurt other candidates, but if Gilmore thinks he's going to be POTUS, he's kidding himself.
February 28, 2007 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm...interesting that IA wingnuts don't get hysterical about tax cut love. It's those damn fiscally conservative midwesterners rearing their heads again. He should have gone with the timetested McCain illegitimate black baby lie.
February 28, 2007 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Push polling is scummy and Gilmore is a long-time scum bag in good standing. It may hurt other candidates, but if Gilmore thinks he's going to be POTUS, he's kidding himself."
I'd agree when it comes to "polling" that isn't actually gathering data, but just spreading trash under the guise of a survey. But if Gilmore is really trying to test a message, you've got to do your audience research somehow. It's a focus-group via phone.
February 28, 2007 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric--
It's a fair point; there's nothing wrong with polling on legitimate issues differences between the candidates or flip-flops among them. Disseminating false information and attempting to persuade voters while claiming to gether objective data, however, is pernicious. I guess I'd have to kow the verbiage to know whether this falls into the former, legitimate category or the true push poll of the "McCain's black bastard" variety.
February 28, 2007 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
A knock-down, drag-out GOP primary battle will be fun to watch. I say, bring on all the push-polls they can come up with.
But seriously, those are the best negatives they could find? That McCain opposed some tax cuts? How about his massive flip-flopping, including his recent wimpy apology to Cheney?
Why use pro-choice on Romney but not on Giuliani? That's what's going to catch up with Rudy. And haven't both McCain and Giuliani had several marriages?
February 28, 2007 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink