A few very quick thoughts on Barack Obama's speech. First, one peculiar aspect of this Dem primary is that there is not one, but two potentially history-making candidates -- he and Hillary Clinton -- meaning that they'll in a sense be vying for the role of most potentially history-making contender. By drawing a direct line from Lincoln's inheritance of a divided nation through to his own mixed heritage -- by saying, in effect, that Lincoln's Presidency was a historical forerunner to his own, should he win -- he made a pretty good case that he should be the one crowned in that role. More after the jump.

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11:05: Obama comes on to the stage after being introduced by Senator Dick Durbin.

11:06: Here comes wife Michelle and their two daughters. "Very attractive woman, obviously," Chris Matthews says on MSNBC.

11:08: "In my heart I know you didn't just come here for me," Obama says. "In the face of war, you believe there can be peace. In the face of despair, you believe there can be hope."

11:11: "When a boy turns to violence, I learned that there's a hole in that boy's heart that no government alone can fill." Not a big-government liberal; government alone can't solve our problems. Values and faith are required, too.

11:13: "I stand before you to announce my candidacy for President of the United States of America." Hit just the right notes on that one: Forceful and determined.

11:16: Long riff on why our history shows we should be hopeful about change: "It is time to answer that call...In the face of impossible odds, people who love this country can effect change."

11: 17: Repeats his riff about "petty politics" distracting us from "real problems."

11:19: Really hitting hard now. "It's time to turn the page. Right here. and Right now."

11:21 "Let's be the generation that ensures our nations workers share in our nations prosperity...Let's be the generation that ends poverty in America...We can do this. And finally, let's be the generation that tackles our health...Let's be the generation that right here and right now [brings] universal health care to America. We can do that." He's really playing the generational theme -- which is key to the case he'll make against Hillary Clinton and others -- in an inspirational way.

11:24: "America, it is time to start bringing our troops home."

11:27: On Lincoln: "He tells us that there is power in words. He tells us that there is power in conviction...He tells us that there's power in hope."

11:28: Wraps up: "Thank you very much everybody, let's get to work. I love you. Thank you." And, refreshingly, no obligatory "God Bless America" at the end.

View it here. It'll be carrying Obama's announcement speech live today at 10:50 A.M.

In advance of her trip to New Hampshire this weekend, Hillary Clinton has clarified her Iraq war vote in an interview with the New Hampshire Union Leader — and she says that her vote for the 2002 resoltuion was not automatically a vote to go to war. From the interview (emphasis ours):

“I have taken responsibility for that vote. It was based on the best assessment that I could make at the time, and it was clearly intended to demonstrate support for going to the United Nations to put inspectors into Iraq.

“When I set forth my reasons for giving the President that authority, I said that it was not a vote for pre-emptive war," the former first lady said.

She said the Bush administration forced an end to the final round of weapons inspections and invaded prematurely. The administration is responsible for the status of the war, she said, and for being “grossly misinformed” or for having “twisted the intelligence to satisfy a pre-conceived version of the facts."

Will this explanation, and Hillary's continued use of it, satisfy anti-war primary voters in New Hampshire? She'll likely meet a lot of them this weekend.

A couple weeks after airing ads attacking John McCain for his escalation plan, MoveOn is back up on the air again -- and this time, the group is targeting GOP Senators for stalling debate on the anti-escalation resolution in the Senate. The $130,000 ad campaign -- which specifically targets GOP Senators John Warner, Sam Brownback, John Sununu, George Voinovich, Arlen Specter, Mitch McConnell and Elizabeth Dole -- will run nationally on CNN and in some local markets in D.C., New York, New Hampshire, Kansas, Maine, and Virginia. The ad slams the Senators hard: "They're willing to send tens of thousands more troops to face danger in Iraq, but they don't have the courage to face a vote." View it here.

As we noted earlier today, Congressman Jerrold Nadler was quoted in today's New York Times questioning whether the anti-escalation resolution House Dem leaders are planning to pass next week goes far enough. We were wondering if that was a sign of possible Dem disunity on the resolution, and whether some Dems wanting tougher Congressional action would vote against it.

So we checked in with Nadler's office. He's almost certainly going to vote for it, the Congressman's Washington director, John Doty, tells us. "He's expected to vote for the resolution," Doty says. "He views it only as a first step. He's going to do more."

A Nadler aide also tells us that he expects that most Dems, if not nearly all of them, will unify next week behind the proposal, which is being drafted now and is expected to circulate Monday. Though 71 members of the House Dems' Progressive Caucus signed a statement a couple days ago saying they wanted to see tougher Congressional action on Iraq, the Nadler aide says that the word is that the Progressives are on board with the resolution. (Nadler's a member of that caucus, too.)

According to House insiders, the thinking is that Dem unity enabled a pretty impressive legislative display during the first 100 days, and a good opening shot on Iraq is crucial. What's more, individual members can in the next couple weeks or so start advancing their own, more strict proposals involving cutting funding and other things -- at which point Dem unity is likely to start fracturing.

Yep, things should get very interesting next week.

Rudy Giuliani is heading to California this weekend for his first big Republican Party event since he declared his candidacy — and he'll effectively have the stage all to himself. Rudy is headlining the state GOP convention this weekend — meaning even Governor Schwarzenegger may be taking a back seat to Rudy and to Presidential politics, The Ventura County Star reports.

Since Arnold is getting flack from the state's conservatives over his universal health care proposal, the paper reports, Giuliani will be the real object of adoration for the party faithful, rather than their own Governor. Further helping Rudy is the fact that he'll be the only Presidential candidate in attendance — the others are merely sending surrogates. "This won't be an Arnold convention," former Assemblyman Tony Strickland told the Star. "This will be more of a Giuliani convention."

Media mogul Rupert Murdoch's off-again, on-again romance with the Clintons looks like it may be...at least somewhat off again. According to The Australian, Murdoch -- who had reportedly been wooed by Hillary into a detente of sorts despite the fact that his media empire had gone after the Clintons for years -- described the former First Lady a "very intelligent, very considerable lady" but also added that she's "divisive" and "calculating."

When his interviewer remarked that he didn't have a clear picture of Murdoch's opinion of Hillary, the mogul answered: "Nor do I."

Interestingly, Murdoch also called on Newt Gingrich, of all people, to run for President. Why? "I think he would lift the debate," Murdoch said. "He would make all the primaries a lot more serious."

John McCain is headed to Cincinatti next Firday, February 16, for a private fundraiser, The Cincinnatti Enquirer reports. The visit will be strictly done as a fundraiser — no public events are currently scheduled. Barack Obama will also be visiting Cincinnati for a fundraiser on Monday, February 26.

In another chapter in the ongoing tale of John McCain's efforts to repair relations with the right, McCain is now reaching out to conservative bloggers, with whom he's also had strained relations, CBS News reports.

The McCain camp is taking this outreach to the conservative blogosphere so seriously that top campaign aides John Weaver and Terry Nelson recently held a conference call with a group of conservative bloggers. Weaver and Nelson found themselves pummeled by a litany of complaints about the Senator, CBS News says.

Are the efforts working? Not yet, if the opinion of Ed Morrisey of Captain's Quarters is any indication: "I know, though, that some of my readers have already written they would stay home or vote for the Democrat if the Republicans went with McCain."

"If you pick up a reputation among the people who are hyper-interested in politics of being a jerk," Morrisey said, "they're going to tell their friends and it's going to turn up in water cooler conversations."

A major sticking point: McCain's support of campaign finance regulations — and the potential to restrict speech in the blogosphere. Other issues involve his overall friendliness with the mainstream media, and his work in 2005 to derail Republican attempts to end filibusters against President Bush's judicial nominees.

The McCain campaign isn't sure yet of how to heal the damage. "I don't think it was as much to smooth things over as to open up a dialogue," McCain spokesman Kevin McLaughlin told CBS. "I don't think we can necessarily say what our expectations are."

"You have to ask who is really undermining this mission? Didn't the Bush Administration undermine it from the start by going to war without sufficient cause, without sufficient planning, without sufficient equipment for our troops?"

-- Senator Jack Reed, quoted in Time magazine, on GOP claims that debating the anti-escalation resolution is undermining troop morale.

Here are some updates on the movements of the Presidential candidates (plus one House '08 item):

* Speaking to activists in Iowa yesterday, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney conceded that the Iraq war has been poorly managed, but refused to go against President Bush's current plan for the war.

* Speaking of Romney, he has been named the keynote speaker at a Lincoln Day dinner jointly sponsored by two Republican county committees in New Hampshire.

* Republican Minnesota state Sen. Dick Day has filed papers to challenge freshman Rep. Tim Walz (D-01) in 2008. Walz, an Afghanistan vet, beat incumbent Gil Gutknecht this past November in what many considered an upset.

* Sen. Barack Obama's fundraising practices -- and how they mesh with his call for higher fundraising standards -- come under scrutiny in the Chicago Sun Times.

* Did someone say "rock star"? Obama's Monday event at the University of New Hampshire is sold out despite being held in a gymnasium with a 3,500 person capacity.

* A bill being considered by the New Hampshire state Legislature is is meant to solidify the secretary of state's ability to schedule New Hampshire's primary -- traditionally the first in the nation -- before the Nevada caucuses.

* Sen. Hillary Clinton has hired New Hampshire Democratic Party executive director Nick Clemons as her state director. Clemons supervised the political and field operations that successfully gained two House seats for the Dems in 2006 and was the state director in New Hampshire for the Kerry-Edwards campaign in 2004.

* In other Clinton hiring news, former Iowa Democratic Party communications director Mark Daley will serve as her communications director in New Hampshire.

* On the campaign trail today, Hillary Clinton is speaking in New York City, Sen. Christopher Dodd is in Florida to address the National Association of Home Builders' Board of Directors, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is the keynote speaker at the TD Ameritrade Partnership 2007 National Conference in San Diego, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is speaking to business leaders in New Hampshire and Mitt Romney is speaking at the Republican Party executive committee meeting in Alabama.

* Former Sen. John Edwards recieved a positive reaction at a crowded International Longshoremen's Association Hall in Charleston, South Carolina where he spoke yesterday about his health care plan and the need to withdraw from Iraq. Also in South Carolina, Mitt Romney fielded questions about abortion this morning when he spoke to a crowd of 100 in Anderson.

* Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is on course to have 14 New York City fundraisers in the bag by March 14, according to Ben Smith.

* The 2008 Presidential ad blitz is about to begin and far earlier than in previous elections due to the lack of a White House incumbent running and the gobs of cash in the race.

* New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson said in a foreign policy address yesterday that the United States must reduce its stock of nuclear weapons, close Guantanamo Bay, and dramatically cut energy use in order to take the lead on many global issues. Richardson is both a former Secretary of Energy and ambassador to the United Nations.

* Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee announced today that that New Hampshire State School Board member Fred Bramante and former City Chair of the Manchester Republican Committee Cliff Hurst will serve as the New Hampshire Co-Chairs of his 2008 presidential exploratory committee.

* Rep. Duncan Hunter will next be in New Hampshire from Feb. 19-21.

* Speaking in Connecticut yesterday, former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack said he "can bring a degree of leadership" to the Presidential race while discussing his plans for Iraq, health care, education, and the environment.

* A fundraiser for Rep. Tom Tancredo in Greenwood Village, Colorado on Feb. 25 will be hosted by conservative talk radio hosts Peter Boyles and Robert "Gunny Bob" Newman.

Here are some updates on the movements of the Presidential candidates (plus one House '08 item):

* Speaking to activists in Iowa yesterday, former MA Gov. Mitt Romney conceded that the Iraq war has been poorly managed, but refused to go against President Bush's current plan for the war.

* Meanwhile, Romney has been named the keynote speaker at a Lincoln Day dinner jointly sponsored by two Republican county committees in New Hampshire.

* Sen. Barack Obama issued an odd challenge to his fellow Presidential candidates Wednesday when he proposed a voluntary agreement between the two major party nominees that they return private donations raised in the primaries and opt for public financing in the general election. The Chicago Sun-Times has a look at some Obama's financing tactics and how they mesh with his proposed higher standard of fundraising.

* Meanwhile, exclusive interviews with Obama were posted yesterday by both MyDD and The Politico.

* Also, Obama's Monday event at the University of New Hampshire is sold out despite being held in a gymnasium with a 3,500 person capacity.

* A bill being considered by the New Hampshire state Legislature is is meant to solidify the secretary of state's ability to schedule New Hampshire's primary -- traditionally the first in the nation -- before the Nevada caucuses.

* Sen. Hillary Clinton has hired New Hampshire Democratic Party executive director Nick Clemons as her state director. Clemons supervised the political and field operations that successfully gained two House seats for the Dems in 2006 and was the state director in NH for the Kerry-Edwards campaign in 2004.

* In other Clinton hiring news, former Iowa Democratic Party communications director Mark Daley will serve as her communications director in New Hampshire.

* On the campaign trail today, Hillary Clinton is speaking in New York City, Sen. Christopher Dodd is in Florida to address the National Association of Home Builders' Board of Directors, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is the keynote speaker at the TD Ameritrade Partnership 2007 National Conference in San Diego, former AR Gov. Mike Huckabee is speaking to business leaders in NH and Mitt Romney is speaking at the Republican Party executive committee meeting in Alabama.

* Sen. John McCain will attend a fundraiser and private meetings with GOP officials in Cincinnati on Feb. 16.

* Former Sen. John Edwards recieved a positive reaction at a crowded International Longshoremen's Association Hall in Charleston, SC where he spoke yesterday about his health care plan and the need to withdraw from Iraq. Also in South Carolina, Mitt Romney fielded questions about abortion this morning when he spoke to a crowd of 100 in Anderson, SC.

* Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani is on course to have 14 NYC fundraisers in the bag by March 14.

* The 2008 Presidential ad blitz is about to begin and far earlier than in previous elections due to the lack of a White House incumbent running and the gobs of cash in the race.

* Former NM Gov. Bill Richardson said in a foreign policy address yesterday that the United States must reduce it's stock of nuclear weapons, close Guantanamo Bay, and dramatically cut energy use in order to take the lead on many global issues. Richardson is both a former Secretary of Energy and US ambassador to the UN.

* Former AR Gov. Mike Huckabee announced today that that New Hampshire State School Board member Fred Bramante and former City Chair of the Manchester Republican Committee Cliff Hurst will serve as the New Hampshire Co-Chairs of his 2008 presidential exploratory committee.

* Rep. Duncan Hunter will next be in New Hampshire from Feb. 19-21.

* Speaking in Westport, CT yesterday, former IA Gov. Tom Vilsack said he "can bring a degree of leadership" to the Presidential race while discussing his plans for Iraq, health care, education, and the environment.

* A fundraiser for Rep. Tom Tancredo on in Greenwood Village, CO on Feb. 25 will be hosted by conservative talk radio hosts Peter Boyles and Robert "Gunny Bob" Newman.

* Republican Minnesota state Sen. Dick Day has filed papers to challenge freshman Rep. Tim Walz (D-01) in 2008. Walz, a Afghanistan vet, beat incumbent Gil Gutknecht this past November in what many considered an upset.

Barack Obama will be making his first Presidential campaign visit to South Carolina next week, the Associated Press reports. He'll be heading to Columbia and Orangeburg on February 16 and 17. South Carolina politicos say he can expect a rousing reception; as former DNC Chairman and South Carolina native Don Fowler put it, "I think he'll get the same kind of reception here he's gotten everywhere." South Carolina, incidentally, is a key state for Obama, for two reasons: First, about half of its primary electorate is made up of black voters; and second, John Edwards — one of Obama's chief rivals — won the state in the 2004 primary.

“Next week, we are going to steal their mascot and short-sheet their beds.”

-- GOP Rep. Jeff Flake of Arizona, quoted in the Times, making fun of his Republican colleagues for pushing the bogus Nancy Pelosi plane story.

So it looks as if House Democratic leaders are successfully persuading members to stay unified to pass a non-binding resolution opposed to escalation next week. Today's New York Times reports that several members who are pushing for a stricter resolution -- one that cuts off funding, for instance -- are nonetheless agreeing to back the leaders' preferred resolution as a necessary first step towards condemning Bush's escalation plan.

If House Dems do manage to stay unified behind the resolution, it will be a powerful gesture that (a) puts the President on notice that tougher House efforts are on the way, and (b) puts added pressure on GOP Senators up for reelection in 2008 to stop backing the filibuster of the Senate bill.

More after the jump on the House members who want tougher measures but are supporting the resolution.

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No one from the White House is running for President in 2008, making this the first time in 80 years that the White House is sitting out the Presidential race, today's Washington Post observes in a front-page story. The paper notes that not since 1928 has no sitting President or Vice President run for the Presidency -- a fact that has far-reaching consequences, both for the GOP candidates and for the Bush administration. All the Republican candidates will, to one degree or another, ultimately themselves from President Bush, meaning that the President has no advocate for his policies or defender of his tenure out on the campaign trail.

Craig Fuller, who was chief of staff to then-Vice President George H.W. Bush as he was getting ready for his 1988 presidential run, sums it up: "It creates a fundamentally different situation than we've known in the past. What's so starkly different about this situation is that not only is the president, by virtue of the calendar, a lame duck, but there's no champion out there on the field for him."

Check out this video of Wolf Blitzer interviewing Tom DeLay about the GOP Presidential field. DeLay has very harsh words for Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. On Rudy: "I can't vote for somebody that's for abortion. I never have, and I never will." On whether Rudy opposes gay marriage: "Now he does. He didn't just a year ago." On McCain: "I don't think he'll get very far, because he does not reflect the vast majority of the party ... on many issues." To watch the video, click here.

This morning, House Dems met behind closed doors and emerged with a plan: They will pass a resolution early next week against escalation that's nonbinding and shows support for the troops. They announced the plan at a press conference today.

But here's something that's particularly interesting about today's announcement: Passage of the resolution will be preceeded by an unusual three-day debate on Iraq during which every House member will speak for five minutes. So promised House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer at the press conference.

Does that remind you of anything? Think that the sight of all that debate just might make the Senate look kinda bad in comparison, given its conspicuous failure to even get its own resolution on to the floor?

More on the resolution after the jump.

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Here are few updates on the movements of the Presidential hopefuls (and others, too):

* Former Vice President Al Gore is expected to announce a series of concerts "bigger than Live Aid" tommorow that will seek to raise awareness about climate change. The concerts will take place on July 7 in seven cities including London, Washington DC, Shanghai, Rio de Janeiro, Cape Town and Kyoto.

* Sen. John McCain will make his first 2007 trip to Iowa next weekend. McCain will also travel to South Carolina on Feb. 18 while his wife, Cindy McCain travels to New Hampshire around the same time in his place. Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former MA Gov. Mitt Romney will also visit South Carolina during the following week. A straw poll of SC Republicans set for March 1st, which is expected to draw 2,000 people, could explain why the GOP frontrunners are all visiting the Palmetto state so close to each other.

* CNN will host a Democratic debate in Nevada on November 4th, 2007.

* The New Mexico attorney general issued an opinion today that Gov. Bill Richardson's fundraising for the Democratic Presidential primary does not conflict with a state ban on fundraising during the legislative session.

* Sen. Hillary Clinton will fundraise in San Fransisco on Feb. 23, charging $250 a head.

* John Edwards is holding a town hall meeting in South Carolina today to discuss his universal health care proposal, Mitt Romney is making various stops across Iowa, Rudy Giuliani is fundraising in New Jersey, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich to the World Money Show in Florida and both Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson are speaking in Washington, DC.

* Meanwhile, Giuliani will be making various stops in California in the days ahead as he seeks to broaden his fundraising base beyond the Tri-State area, which accounts for three-fourths of the money he has raised.

* Sen. Joe Biden will make his first trip to Iowa as an announced candidate on Feb. 16.

* Ohio state Sen. Eric Kearney is organizing a fundraiser for Sen. Barack Obama in Cincinnati on Feb. 26 that will charge between $100 and $2,300 per ticket. Kearney's wife, Jan-Michele Kearney, was in Obama's class at Harvard Law School and the couple attended Obama's wedding.

* When former AR Gov. Mike Huckabee visits New Hampshire on Friday, he will focus on fiscal policy with special attention paid to defending himself against the anti-tax Club for Growth, who released a 5-page report critical of Huckabee's record on taxes and government regulation as Governor of Arkansas after he decided to explore a Presidential run.

* Rep. Dennis Kucinich began distributing a 15-minute campaign DVD after his Feb. 2 speech before the Democratic National Committee. The Cleveland Plain Dealer has the video here.

* Sen. Sam Brownback has won the endorsement of grammy award-winning contemporary Christian singer/songwriter Michael W. Smith, who will act as a surrogate for the campaign.

John Edwards will attend the Dem Presidential debate in Carson City, Nevada, on Feb. 21, Edwards senior adviser Jonathan Prince tells us. "It's a great opportunity to talk to working people about things John has been working on for a long time," Prince says, "like raising the minimum wage, organizing to protect workers' rights and earn a good living, and universal health care."

Six other Dem Presidential hopefuls -- Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Tom Vilsack, Bill Richardson and Mike Gravel -- will also attend the event, which is sponsored by the AFL-CIO.

The Nevada event is significant for Dems for several reasons. The DNC recently moved Nevada's caucus to Jan. 19, in part because Dems see the west as a region where they can build on their gains in the 2006 elections. The debate's expected to stress western issues such as immigration, population growth and public land questions, as well as issues important to labor.

For these and other reasons, Nevada is a key state for Edwards, who's aggressively wooing labor unions and is staking out a place in the Dem field as committed to issues important to labor.

Meanwhile, Obama is taking a pass on the event, The Hotline reports.

Forget Nevada and Florida — the next challenge to New Hampshire's plum spot as first primary state may be coming from, of all places, little Wyoming. The Casper Star-Tribune reports that the Wyoming Republican Central Committee voted unanimously to have the state's Presidential delegates picked on the same day as the New Hampshire Republican primary — a move that could upend the GOP Presidential primary schedule and provoke a huge political fight. More after the jump.

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The Edwards campaign just released statements from Edwards and the two bloggers in the thick of the controversy, and it looks as if the two won't be fired.

The statement says Edwards was "personally offended" by their writings, but that he also believes in "giving everyone a fair shake" and that he's "talked" to the bloggers, that they've assured him "that it was never their intention to malign anyone's faith," and that he takes them "at their word." The statement doesn't directly address the firing question, but it appears that they're going to be okay. The statements follow.

Senator John Edwards:

“The tone and the sentiment of some of Amanda Marcotte's and Melissa McEwen's posts personally offended me. It's not how I talk to people, and it's not how I expect the people who work for me to talk to people. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but that kind of intolerant language will not be permitted from anyone on my campaign, whether it's intended as satire, humor, or anything else. But I also believe in giving everyone a fair shake. I've talked to Amanda and Melissa; they have both assured me that it was never their intention to malign anyone's faith, and I take them at their word. We're beginning a great debate about the future of our country, and we can't let it be hijacked. It will take discipline, focus, and courage to build the America we believe in.”

Blogger Amanda Marcotte:

“My writings on my personal blog, Pandagon on the issue of religion are generally satirical in nature and always intended strictly as a criticism of public policies and politics. My intention is never to offend anyone for his or her personal beliefs, and I am sorry if anyone was personally offended by writings meant only as criticisms of public politics. Freedom of religion and freedom of expression are central rights, and the sum of my personal writings is a testament to this fact.”

Blogger Melissa McEwen:

“Shakespeare's Sister is my personal blog, and I certainly don't expect Senator Edwards to agree with everything I've posted. We do, however, share many views - including an unwavering support of religious freedom and a deep respect for diverse beliefs. It has never been my intention to disparage people's individual faith, and I'm sorry if my words were taken in that way.”

The dates and times for the New Hampshire debates have finally been fixed — and George Stephanopoulos is moderating. The New Hampshire Union Leader is reporting that a Republican debate is set for October 14, and a Democratic debate is scheduled for October 21. Two more debates will follow in late January 2008, shortly before the primary. They will be broadcast nationally as special editions of ABC's This Week.

Bad news for Chris Dodd: He's way behind Hillary Clinton in his home state of Connecticut. A new American Research Group poll finds that Hillary holds a commanding 26-point lead over Dodd, 40%-14%. Barack Obama comes up a close third behind Dodd, with 10%. Needless to say, there's no state where Dodd is better known than his own.

"For some reason, the military seems more afraid of gay people than they are [of] terrorists. They're very brave with the terrorists, and if the terrorists ever got a hold of this information, they'd get a platoon of lesbians to chase us out of Baghdad."

— Rep. Gary Ackerman, D-NY, quoted in the Associated Press criticizing the ban on gays in the military as he questioned Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice at a House hearing yesterday. The "information" Ackerman was referring to was the fact that the military had fired Farsi and Arabic translators after learning the translators were gay.

Stuart Rothenberg says that despite recent history -- which shows that parties that have lost large amounts of House seats tend to "snap back" with big gains -- Dems are likely to hang on to their majority this time around:

The Iraq War was crucial in contributing to the formation of a Democratic wave in 2006, creating an environment that is unique in the recent history of surges.

The war could continue to pose problems for the Republicans in 2008, and if so, that would minimize the chances of a snapback. Even though Bush will not be on the ballot in 2008, he still could be a factor that undercuts the appeal of his party and enhances Democratic prospects up and down the ballot. If independents continue to reject the GOP, Republican candidates will have a hard time reclaiming districts that they lost last year.

The possibility of a GOP snapback also is minimized by the nature of the ’06 wave. Almost half of the districts that turned from Republican to Democratic are either competitive or Democratic-leaning, and as long as the freshman Democrats in those districts don’t stumble badly, history suggests that they will be difficult to dislodge...

Obviously, the presidential contest will have a strong impact on the election year, as will the Democratic Congress’ performance, party fundraising, candidate recruitment and retirements. We won’t know for months which party will have the edge in House races in 2008, but it’s likely that divided government will make it difficult to oust incumbents — and that should improve Democrats’ chances of maintaining their House majority in next year’s elections.

The whole thing's worth a read.

Mitt Romney and John McCain have both rolled out new endorsements this morning. Romney's campaign announced that Senators Larry Craig of Idaho and Robert Bennett of Utah have joined his campaign as Senate liasons. Meanwhile, the McCain camp has received endorsements from Connecticut Congressman Chris Shays — the sole Republican House member from New England — and Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Alvarez.

Uh oh. Mitt Romney has been caught in another flip flop on an issue dear to conservatives. The Hill reports:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who strongly criticized campaign-finance regulations in a private meeting with House conservatives last week, once touted dramatic restructuring measures such as taxing political contributions and placing spending limits on federal campaigns.

Romney's past campaign finance measures after the jump.

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Hillary Clinton is in a virtual dead heat with the two top GOP candidates, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, in head-to-head matchups in the three most important Presidential battleground states, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today. The survey finds:

* In Ohio, Hillary leads McCain 46%-42% and leads Giuliani 46%-43%.

* In Pennsylvania, Rudy leads Hillary 47%-44% and McCain leads Hillary 46%-45%, a statistical tie.

* In Florida, Giuliani leads Hillary 47%-44% and Hillary edges McCain 47%43%.

Full poll results here.

Mitt Romney appears to be making headway with Evangelical leaders worried that his Mormonism makes him unfit for their support or for the Presidency, today's New York Times reports. The paper reports extensively on Romney's efforts to win over the evangelicals, recounting that he has "set up a meeting this month in Florida with 100 ministers and religious broadcasters."

Romney also had a meeting last fall with a bunch of evangelical leaders, including the Rev. Jerry Falwell, that "was by all accounts a successful meeting," the paper says.

In yet another sign that Romney is slowly beginning to succeed with these figures, some evangelical leaders tell the paper that Romney may prove to be their best candidate. This suggests that the suspicions religious conservatives harbor about both John McCain and Rudy Giuliani could be hardening, and that they are beginning to accept the idea that Romney is their only real alternative. Says the Times:

“There’s this growing acceptance of this idea that Mitt Romney may well be and is our best candidate,” said Jay Sekulow, the chief counsel for the American Center for Law and Justice, a conservative legal advocacy group, and a prominent host on Christian radio.

Mark DeMoss, an evangelical public relations consultant who represents many conservative Christian groups, said it was “more important to me that a candidate shares my values than my faith,” adding, “And if I look at it this way, Mr. Romney would be my top choice.”

You'd think Senator Sam Brownback would be the natural fall-back candidate for these leaders, but oddly, his name didn't even come up in the paper's interviews with these leading evangelical figures.

The John Edwards campaign appears to be in bunker mode over the big blogger controversy. Staffers aren't answering phone calls and emails. The statement on this whole dust-up promised to Salon earlier today has yet to materialize.

Meanwhile, the Edwards camp is under blogospheric siege from some quarters. Chris Bowers of MyDD is threatening not to support Edwards if the two bloggers are fired. He writes:

While there is no way I will support Edwards with Amanda and Melissa...fired, I will immediately become a staunch Edwards supporter if they are not fired. Consider the heinous reporting that is being done in this story, where bigot William Donahue is somehow an authority on what defines hate speech, it is clear that the Edwards campaign will take a lot of flack from outside the netroots if they do not fire Amanda and Melissa. Keeping them on would show a willingness to take risks and stand up to the media in a way that most Democrats just are not, all because the campaign will be doing so in order to defend the netroots.

If someone is willing to stand with us, that should mean something big, and should not go unrewarded.

More as we learn it.

Update: Crooks and Liars has video of a CNN segment on this. First the Times covers it, now CNN. This is really snowballing.

As we noted below, various media reports today said that Barack Obama had opted not to seek public financing for his Presidential bid.

But The Politico has just dumped some cold water on the story, reporting that in fact, Obama is seeking an opinion from the Federal Election Commission on whether he can raise money above the financing limit -- then return that money later and opt into the campaign finance system after all. The Politico said that the FEC would soon post the Obama camp's request on its Web site.

Sure enough, here it is. Here's a key quote from the Obama campaign's request:

The question on which he seeks the commission's guidance is whether, if Senator Obama becomes a candidate, he may provisionally raise funds for the general election but retain the option, upon nomination, of returning these contributions and accepting the public funds for which he would be eligible as the Democratic Party's nominee...

The Senator would not, if the law allows, rule out the possibility of a publicly funded campaign if both major parties's nominees decide, or even agree, on this course...Senator Obama believes that if there is a chance of the publicly funded alternative, it is a chance well worth protecting.

The Politico's report is here.

Congressman Charlie Norwood, R-GA, has decided to stop medical treatment for cancer, and will instead receive in-home hospice care back in Georgia, the Associated Press reports. The 66-year old Norwood reportedly made the decision as a result of the cancer spreading from his lungs to his liver. Norwood said, "Let me go back home, stop all the treatments and just see how I can do there," according to a spokesman. There are reportedly no current plans to resign, according to CNN.

Yes, Bill Clinton will appear at the annual fundraising breakfast for Dems this weekend in Westchester County -- in place of his wife, who was scheduled for the event but will instead be campaigning in New Hampshire. Bill Clinton's spokesman, Jay Carson, has confirmed to Election Central that he'll be making the Westchester appearance.

According to the Clintons' hometown newspaper, the Westchester County Journal News, it will be Bill's first appearance in the region since his wife announced her Presidential candidacy. His appearance will be interesting, because it will provide clues as to how he plans to go about promoting her candidacy.

The other day on Fox News Rudy Giuliani said th