I could see Tancredo or Brownback hanging in there against Rudy in the general election if by some miracle he won the primaries, or else someeone who thinks they have some crossover/silent majority type appeal like Pat Buchanan getting in the race.

Rudy is living on borrowed time. McCain or Romney will bring up his 9/11 screwups. His having the Emergency response HQ in the WTC complex even after people told him not to do it, due to the 1993 bombing. It will indeed be a fun season.

I strongly disagree that Giuliani would make a strong general election candidate. Put aside the fact that his real list of substantive accomplishments is rather meager (the MSM don't care about trivia like that), but just wait until that character obsessed MSM sees the Giuliani that the NYC area knows. You know, the thinskinned control freak whose penchant for governmental secrecy and power rivals even that of Dick Cheney. While I know that the MSM is loath to chanage its preferred script, prickly Rudy would undoubtedly vent at enough members of the MSM to change a lot of minds.

A Ind(Winger/Religious Fascist)-Guiliani-Dem race would be fascinating because he might be able to siphon candidates from both parties. Shaky Dems that feel the need to have a 'tough guy' in charge, and Reps that think the Winger is too crazy but can't stomach a Dem. Plus the Winger would have an invincible 20% core of support to begin with.

But I think this would hurt Guiliani the most--and if a Presidential election became a race between a Democrat and a Third Party Candidate while the candidate of the major party became well irrelevant...

That might be very interesting to see how the two party system handles THAT. The Democrats have outlasted major parties before.

The GOP primary is wide open. At this point I don't think we should rule anything out.

Giuliani's ability to appear earnest, when he is in fact lying through his teeth, will make him a formidable candidate. We underestimate him at our peril.

I also think Giuliani could win a three way race, with a slim plurality, say, thirty-five to thirty-eight percent of the vote.

If he can make it to the general election, he will be hard to beat. The trick is navigating the minefield that is the GOP primary.

Let the contortions begin.

I keep waiting for Guiliani to have a George Herbert Walker Bush-like ideological "conversion."

The key to winning the GOP primary is having a 50-state operation, like Bush had in 2000. And, they key to having a 50-state operation is having enough money. Unless you are operating everywhere, you have to count entirely on momentum out of NH to propel you to win everywhere else. That's part of what hurt McCain in 2000. Even though he was an attractive candidate due to his appeal to independents, moderates and some dems, he lost the ground game because his financials came up short. Once his momentum from NH was "firewalled" in SC, he didn't have the money in the other states to get out the vote.

Democrats are far more likely to come unglued than the GOP in the next 2 years. They got deeply conservative candidates to run under the Dem banner and won over the Iraq issue. So, let's see if the "big tent" holds up or folds. It's difficult to see Dems from very red states towing the Pelosi line for 2 full years.

I still don't get this "deeply conservative Democrats" line. The folks they won with are pretty traditional "Party Democrats," kind of along the lines of "your father's Democrats." True, they are not the dreaded "San Fancisco" liberals, but I wouldn't go so far as to call them "conservatives."

I do agree that the activist left and the traditional middle will have to battle it out in the next two years, to an extent, and at times it could get ugly, but I think that the Party will see that middle-left is the way most of its adherents see things. I consider myself a pragmatic liberal, in that I understand that social change often depends on the will of the public to adapt to "liberalism" as defined on the East Coast (in my case). So, personally, I am happy to let the new majority draw us back to the middle. Hopefully the more activist wing of the Party will see this.

I don't understand how Giuliani makes it out of the GOP primaries. He can't move to the right of McCain with the base. I think his only hope is to attract the moderates and let the other candidates split the fundies... but that scenario only works if you have GOP-right candidates who are fairly equal. They're not. There's McCain and then everyone else.

(is Alan Keyes running again???)

Rudy is not a serious candidate.

I have been saying this for months now.

He has no chance of winning the GOP nomination or even the VP spot.

His high poll numbers reflect the fawning press coverage he has received since 9/11. There has been no serious coverage of Rudy's record or personal life.

Even if the press continues to give him positive coverage his GOP primary opponents will make sure the voters hear about his liberal social views, his private life, his record as mayor.

Question; where will Rudy's current support in the polls go. To McCain, Romney or someone else.

Those of us who live in New York can more easily remember that, directly prior to 9/11, Giuliani's political career was considered by many to be washed up, and for good reason. Most people would credit him with conducting himself with dignity in the immediate aftermath of that crisis, but that doesn't change what went on before. He’s been romanticized beyond recognition and, because he has not held public office since then or been an immediate political threat to anyone, either Democratic or Republican, he has been having a pretty easy ride. The reality is that this guy has a lot of skeletons in his closet, both political and personal, and, as soon as he’s really out there, they’re going to be brought out and it is not going to be pretty. The personal skeletons include extramarital behavior that makes Bill Clinton look like a boy scout. His marriage didn’t just fail. He didn’t just cheat on his wife. He publicly flaunted his infidelity in a way that was impressive even for us hardened New Yorkers. The political stuff is more complicated, but, all in all, it just isn’t going to go down, particularly with Republican primary voters. Personally, I don’t think the Democrats will have to lay a glove on this guy. When it comes down to it, his Republican rivals are going to bring up this stuff and take him out in the first round.

"Question; where will Rudy's current support in the polls go."

You're right in seeing his support as ephemeral. His high numbers are the result of his having two things: name recognition and a vague impression of patriotism, moderation and GOP-seal-of-approval-hood. It's a pretty good way to open an advertising cvampaign, but it won't last. Scrap the superficial name recognition and what you have left are a bunch of underinformed voters looking for the patriotism brand, the moderate/electable brand and/or the GOP Seal of Approval.

McCain is, right now, the most logical place for them to turn, but much of his veneer of moderation/electability has peeled off, and the end is not yet. His patriotic image will remain appealing to pro-war dead-enders, but their numbers are diminishing.

Romney is fleeing from a reputation as a moderate, and won't be able to make the reverse pivot later on and retain any credibility, and doesn't have any particular patriotism (i.e. virile and courageous defiance of America's foes) branding. His only appeal for these folks is the party poohbahs' approval as the True Republican Choice. And this (at least for now) he has to share with McCain.

Huckabee gets the lion's share of the moderation/electability voters. His very conservative track record is no more of a hindrance for him than it was for McCain in 2000. He has a good story, if not a riveting blood-and-glory one, but won't be granted a share of the GOP Seal of Approval until both (maybe just on, but I think both) of the current recipients show signs of tanking pretty hard.

So, basically:
Lockstep GOP hacks --> Romney
"My country right or wrong"ers --> McCain
"Can't we all get along"ers --> Huckabee

"McCain is, right now, the most logical place for them to turn, "

I agree.

Much of Rudy's poll strength is based on the mythical hero persona the media has created. That will start to unravel as soon as Rudy's personal/political record is revealed.

The "hero worship" voters will most likely gravitate towards McCain. Especially if the press is still portraying St John McCain as the "straight talking war hero who acts out of principle".