Poll: Hillary Leading McCain, Giuliani In Ohio
Yes, polls at this stage are meaningless, but we're still going to share them with you as they come in. Hillary Clinton has edged into a lead over the two top GOP contenders in the crucial Presidential state of Ohio, a poll released today by Quinnipiac University finds. Clinton leads John McCain in the state by four points, 46%-42%, and edges by Rudy Giuliani by three, 46%-43%.
Ohio has been a sore spot of late for Dems in Presidential politics -- President Bush carried the state against Al Gore by four points in 2000 and two points against John Kerry in 2004. But Dems made an exceptionally strong showing in Ohio in 2006, winning the two top-of-the-ticket contests -- Senate and Governor -- as well winning a House seat and making gains at the local legislative level, suggesting that the state may be primed to swing to Dems in 2008.
Interestingly, Clinton has significantly higher unfavorability ratings than both McCain and Giuliani. Nonetheless, numbers like these are clearly helpful to the Hillary camp, because her advisers will use them to puncture the she-can't-win argument.
As Quinnipiac polling director Peter Brown puts it: "Given their stronger overall image, Mayor Giuliani and Sen. McCain would seem to have the potential to improve their standing. That might be much more difficult for Sen. Clinton because of the larger number of voters who don't like her. Nevertheless, her showing in Ohio at this point is likely to be seen as a boon for her campaign in convincing the 'Hillary can't win' crowd that they are wrong."
Given the unpopularity of both McCain's and Guiliani's position on Iraq, the central issue of our time, I would think Clinton's margin should be larger, even in Ohio. So, imo, I'm not sure how much the results of the poll vitiate the "she-can't-win argument."
January 30, 2007 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
The same poll shows Edwards leading McCain, which shows either that there's more than electable Dem, or that McCain's support is cratering, or both.
January 30, 2007 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Brown ought to realize that McCain and Giuliani's negatives are obviously going to go down because they've never been subject to the attacks that come in a national campaign. McCain was smeared by the Bush people in 2000, but that only endeared him to indys and Dems. He's no longer that "maverick," and few voters are aware of his very-conservative voting record. He's already slipping. Hillary, on the other hand, has been the target of right-wingers for 15 years.
I think it's pretty encouraging she has a lead at all in Ohio considering McCain and Giuliani don't - yet - have her negatives.
BTW, I do believe there's more than one electable Dem.
January 30, 2007 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
This poll is shocking given the media cheerleading of both St John McCain and Guiliani for years.
McCain seldom makes a TV appearance without the host calling him "straight talking maverick" or Rudy as "America's Mayor". With Hillary their opening line is "why are you so hated?"
January 30, 2007 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This poll is much more worthwhile to post than the nationwide horse race Dem/GOP primary polls.
January 30, 2007 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love Hillary Clinton, but I once put her in the "unelectable" category myself.
I became a believer when, after begging her via emails not to run for the Senate because it would be a humiliating defeat, she won in NY.
Then I heard Mary Matalin this past year claim that Senator Clinton had to win by 60% in 2006 to make her a viable presidential candidate. Well, if that's truly the GOP measure, she's a viable presidential candidate.
This poll, at the very least, shows that all their bs is... well, bs. Hillary Clinton has the brains, the experience, the stamina, and the will to win. If you've ever heard her speak in person, you know she's a formitable candidate.
(My candidate is Al Gore, but that's topic for a different day :-)
January 30, 2007 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
You make a good point that the negatives on Maverick and Guliani will both climb, but HRC's lead in Ohio doesn't mean squat this far out. Remember this is Ohio, right behind Florida in terms of GOP dirty tricks. Her high negatives will just be more fodder for the right-wing hate machine that will be unleashed in 08, not to mention the voter intimidation and vote tabulation hijinks any Dem must overcome in this crucial state.
January 30, 2007 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want to take the opportunity to clarify my post given that someone had the temerity to rate it as a 0.
My point is simple: the margins of Ms. Clinton's leads over McCain and Guiliani are within sampling error. The Iraq war is rightly incredibly unpopular. Both McCain and Guiliani support continuing Bush's disastrous course, which has needlessly sacrificed the lives of over 3000 troops, and seriously wounded thousands more.
Is it really that unreasonable to think that the same political forces that produced a Democratic takeover of Congress should also produce a bigger lead for Hillary Clinton? I don't think so.
That anyone would consider that analysis trollish is an abomination and an abuse of the rating system.
January 30, 2007 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink