New State Polls: Rudy Dominates GOP; Clinton Closely Followed By Obama
A new round of polls taken in eight key primary states contain some striking findings: First, that Rudy Giuliani holds a large lead over the rest of the GOP field in almost all eight states; and second, that Hillary Clinton is closely followed by Barack Obama in many of the contests.
The polls, released today by New Hampshire-based American Research Group, surveyed the states of Michigan, Missouri, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, New Mexico, California and North Carolina.
On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani has leads of 10 points or more in almost every state. The exceptions: Missouri, where McCain leads 31%-18%, and North Carolina, where Giuliani still leads, 34%-26%. So while Giuliani may hold a variety of social positions that are anathema to the Republican base, the good will generated from 9/11 appears to be lifting him high above the rest of the GOP field, at least for now.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton holds leads of over 10 points over Obama in Missouri, Florida and Pennsylvania, while the two are tied 30%-30% in Michigan, and Hillary has a small lead of 36%-33% in California. Meanwhile, in Illinois, New Mexico and North Carolina, the candidates who called those states home — Obama, Bill Richardson and John Edwards — all lead Clinton.
This is interesting -- the Dems have 2 excellent potential candidates in Richardson and Biden -- instead the pack leaders are 2 candidates with no executive experience and one very polarizing Hillary. Given that this is the same political system that produced Bush and Kerry out of 300 million potentials, I guess I shouldn't be so surprised.
January 19, 2007 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does Biden have executive experience? Richardson, of course, does.
January 19, 2007 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
All this shows is that the campaign hasn't begun yet and that voters are responding to Guiliani's "name recognition" which is good for him. Wait until the attack ads start, and then we'll see if the Republican base has suddenly decided to sing Kumbayah. I doubt it.
The other thing this shows is the weakness of McCain. I thought McCain would be up around 50% right now as the party coalesed around him, but he's tanking badly and this poll shows it.
I wonder if he'll win the nomination?
But, really what Republican has the mainstream credibility to win in 2008 with the war in Iraq still raging?
January 19, 2007 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
These polls are meaningless.
The campaign will be over before the California primary.
You can ignore Rudy's poll numbers because most people have no idea who he is. They know his name and they have a vague idea of him being a 9/11 hero but that's it. They don't know anything about his personal or political record.
This is even more so in the case of Romney, Vilsack, Richardson, Obama etc. The public does not know these people. The poll numbers simply reflect a vague idea the public has about them. That is to the extent that they have heard about them. The average voter has no idea who Romney is.
They do know Hillary, McCain and Edwards.
January 19, 2007 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most interesting aspect of these numbers is that Gingrich is slightly ahead of McCain in both MO and CA.
One thing I'd love to see are the ideological crosstabs on Giulliani.
January 19, 2007 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have to keep telling this story...
Back in December of 2003 we got Kerry to our campus when he was polling @ 6%. A month or so later, he was close to wrapping up the nomination.
Obama will be just like Dean, strong early buzz where the buzz is greater than the support. Clinton has staying power so will always be around. I'm curious about Richardson and Vilsack. I blew off Vilsack initially, but I think that was too early. I'm supporting Wesley Clark--inside information says its looking very likely, though not definite, that he will run. Clark is a statesman with executive experience (as SACEUR he was responsible for hundreds of thousands of people).
January 19, 2007 9:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, they don't have much info on Edwards because he has done little and hasn't dominated the spotlight like Obama. Once that happens, Edwards will tank. Your right about Guiliani, though.
I'd add Huckabee onto your list. I think he has the potential to be a sleeper--just like Vilsack and Richardson.
January 19, 2007 9:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
For awhile there ARG was hitting the numbers accurately in the 2004 primaries.
These polls drive name recognition. If they don't know who a Romney is or much about a Guiliani with enough repetition they'll at least remember the name to put with the face after seein them a few times. Primary voters in early states more than most. By this time next year most voters will know who the frontrunners are without enough knowing how they came by that knowledge.
January 19, 2007 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink