Good news for Hillary Clinton on the day she declared her Presidential candidacy: A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows her with a wide lead over her Dem primary rivals. The poll finds that she commands 41% of the vote, while Barack Obama is in second with only 17%, and John Edwards is in third with 11 percent. Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani holds a sizeable lead over John McCain, 34%-27%.

Now that Hillary's officially in the Presidential race, it's interesting to take note of what's shaping up to be the official conservative narrative on her candidacy: The idea that she's forever doomed to be vacillating between "center" and "left" — that is, as conservatives define these terms, of course.

Case in point: Bill Kristol's new column in Time magazine. Key quote:

The examples of Muskie and Kerry are Clinton's Scylla and Charybdis. She will spend the next year trying to navigate between the twin dangers of being too moderate on the war for an antiwar primary electorate and going so far in mollifying that electorate as to weaken her chances in the general election. Like Muskie, a Humphrey backer in 1968, and Kerry, an Iraq-war authorizer in 2002, she's saddled with the original sin of being an original war supporter. Like Muskie, she's been moving gradually away from that position. Like Kerry, she'll soon have to cast votes on various legislative proposals related to the war.

Note the underlying assumptions here: (1) That someone who was for the war could only become anti-war out of opportunism; (2) That being against the Iraq war is out of the mainstream within the country at large; and (3) That being for the war is the better position politically in a general election.

These assumptions ignore the simple possibility that a politician might be reaching his or her position by responding to the conditions that exist in Iraq now, as opposed to ones that existed in the past, and hence is changing his or her mind about what the right course of action is right now. They also ignore the glaring reality that sizeable majorities now oppose the war, want it to be brought to an end, and handed Dems Congress in 2006 so that they could do just that.

The outstanding question: Will this narrative become the chosen storyline of the big news organizations if conservatives repeat it often enough?

So I just got off the phone with a top Democratic donor, and he had some interesting things to say about the ways in which Barack Obama -- who obviously has far less of an established financial network than Hillary Clinton does -- is seeking to win over big money donors who might otherwise feel compelled to go with the former First Lady.

The Obama camp has a "light touch," which contrasts with the Clinton camp's somewhat more aggressive approach, this donor says.

According to this donor, Obama's fundraisers have been calling up established contributors and saying something along the lines of, "are you open to meeting with Obama?" or "Are you open to the idea of an Obama candidacy?"

"His people are being very respectful, very low key," this donor tells me. "The Hillary camp's message is, `I'm on my way to winning the nomination, line up with me.' Obama's is, `Hey, look, I'm the future, line up with me.' Obama's is more like, `Hey, we want you to be involved, not just to be an ATM machine.'"

The Times adds a bit more evidence today that the Clinton camp is being, shall we say, somewhat more heavy handed. "One Democratic operative, who has knowledge of Mrs. Clinton’s fund-raising operation in the Midwest, called donors in Chicago last week after Mr. Obama’s announcement, asking whether it would be foolhardy to sign onto the Clinton campaign if he was in the race," the paper says.

Lighter touch or no, Obama is quietly working to poach fundraising support that might otherwise commit to Clinton. He's hired Julianna Smoot, who helped raise money for the DSCC on Wall Street in 2006, and has sent fundraiser Jenny Yeager to oversee his fundraising in New York. Will it work? More here.

Some interesting new numbers from Newsweek: The mag has released a poll today finding that Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all hold an edge, however slight, over John McCain in head-to-head matchups. Of those three Dems, however, only one beats Rudy Giuliani in such a matchup: John Edwards. Interestingly, a generic Dem holds a staggering 21-point edge over a generic Republican, 49%-28%.

Here is Hillary Clinton's announcement video, posted on her Web site this morning:

At the end, she promises that she'll be making contact with the American people via "live, online video chats starting this Monday." Hillary then adds, "So let the conversation begin! I have a feeling it's going to very interesting."

Barack Obama has just issued a statement on Hillary Clinton's entrance into the Presidential race:

Senator Clinton is a good friend and a colleague whom I greatly respect. I welcome her and all the candidates, not as competitors, but as allies in the work of getting our country back on track.

Great Moments In Fox News Dept. ... That cultural black hole of cable news, where serious issues and the trivial collide, has just sucked in an innocent victim named Newt Gingrich. While being interviewed by Greta Van Susteren a few days ago, Gingrich was asked about an all-important issue: the public feuding between Rosie O'Donnell and Donald Trump. A flabbergasted Newt, shocked that he was being asked to "admit or deny" following the gossip — he has not — summed up his feelings: "I think it's a sign the country's desperately trying to avoid thinking about Iraq or George Bush." Pay attention, because Election Central won't be saying this too often: Right on Newt! To watch the video, click here.

Hillary's in! From her statement on the formation of an exploratory committee to run for President:

I'm in. And I'm in to win...As a senator, I will spend two years doing everything in my power to limit the damage George W. Bush can do. But only a new president will be able to undo Bush's mistakes and restore our hope and optimism.

Her full statement after the jump.

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Remember the 2004 TV ad depicting John Kerry windsurfing back and forth? Get ready for more just like it. According to today's New York Times, John McCain has hired three senior ad makers from President Bush's reelection campaign: Russ Schriefer, Stuart Stevens and Fred Davis. Schriefer and Stevens were responsible for both the windsurfing ad and for another one lampooning Kerry's "for it before I voted against it" line, among others.

It'll be interesting to see what the end product will look like when these guys apply their talents to ads attacking GOP primary opponents like Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. How will they go about knocking that 9/11 halo off Rudy's head? How will they exploit Romney's flip-flopping on key social issues? We'll soon find out.

Signaling that the efforts of a few hard-line anti-immigration conservatives to derail President Bush's choice to head the Republican National Committee had failed, Mel Martinez took over as head of the organization yesterday and said that his first priority was to make Republicans feel good about themselves again. In an interview with today's Washington Post, Martinez said that his "first order of business" was "to try to rekindle a little bit of fire," though he offered few if any details on how this might be accomplished at a time when the Republican Party is badly split over Iraq and the Dems are well positioned for more gains in 2008.

Meanwhile, in yet another sign that Martinez faces an uphill struggle in his quest to rekindle the GOP's "fire," his outgoing predecessor, Ken Mehlman, said in a farewell speech yesterday that Republicans would suffer big losses again in 2008 unless they committed themselves to genuine reform and got serious about addressing the party's ongoing struggle to hew to basic governing ethics.

A new round of polls taken in eight key primary states contain some striking findings: First, that Rudy Giuliani holds a large lead over the rest of the GOP field in almost all eight states; and second, that Hillary Clinton is closely followed by Barack Obama in many of the contests.

The polls, released today by New Hampshire-based American Research Group, surveyed the states of Michigan, Missouri, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, New Mexico, California and North Carolina.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani has leads of 10 points or more in almost every state. The exceptions: Missouri, where McCain leads 31%-18%, and North Carolina, where Giuliani still leads, 34%-26%. So while Giuliani may hold a variety of social positions that are anathema to the Republican base, the good will generated from 9/11 appears to be lifting him high above the rest of the GOP field, at least for now.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton holds leads of over 10 points over Obama in Missouri, Florida and Pennsylvania, while the two are tied 30%-30% in Michigan, and Hillary has a small lead of 36%-33% in California. Meanwhile, in Illinois, New Mexico and North Carolina, the candidates who called those states home — Obama, Bill Richardson and John Edwards — all lead Clinton.

Building on his previous inroads into the Florida Republican establishment and his courting of Jeb Bush allies, Mitt Romney has landed the support of another top Florida GOP pol: Rep. Tom Feeney, a former Speaker of the State House. The Romney campaign has just put out a press release touting the support of Feeney, who was elected to the House in 2002 and achieved minor national fame in 2000 for calling a special legislative session to award the state's Presidential Electors to George W. Bush. During that controversy over voter confusion, Feeney also made waves with remarks in favor of the use of literacy tests as a pre-condition for the right to vote.

Romney has been successful in winning over Bush Republicans throughout the South who have never forgiven John McCain for his insurgent candidacy against the President in 2000, and Feeney represents yet another victory on that front.

Barack Obama has yet to officially launched his Presidential candidacy — he's thus far only unveiled an exploratory committee — but he now has a big fundraiser scheduled in Hollywood, a region that has long been fertile money-raising ground for potential rival Hillary Clinton, The Chicago Sun-Times reports. The paper says that Obama's fundraiser will be hosted by David Geffen and Jeffrey Katzenberg. The kicker: Another event is in the works that is set to be hosted by Hollywood agent Ari Emanuel — brother of Rahm, a member of Obama's Chicago Congressional delegation.

Here are some updates on the movements of the Presidential candidates:

* Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani has just hired a consulting firm with ties to Karl Rove, Olsen & Shuvalov, to assist with his exploratory committee.

* Sen. Sam Brownback is set to make his bid for President official in a formal announcement from Topeka, KS on Saturday.

* Former Sen. John Edwards will speak in Iowa City on Saturday about Iraq and other public concerns.

* While both Sen. John McCain and former MA Gov. Mitt Romney held cocktail receptions for fellow Republicans at the RNC's winter meeting on Thursday, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani was no where to be seen at the annual gathering of GOP movers and shakers.

* Rev. Jesse Jackson, who ran for President in 1988, told CNN that he is all, but certain to endorse Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic primaries.

* Former WI Gov. Tommy Thompson will be attending events and fundraisers in Nebraska today before heading to Iowa tomorrow to eat pizza with some College Republicans.

* Former IA Gov. Tom Vilsack is attending events in New Hampshire today while Sen. Christopher Dodd will campaign throughout the state's Southern Tier tomorrow.

* Former MA Gov. Mitt Romney will head to Israel next week to speak at a conference on Israel's national security while former Speaker Newt Gingrich and Sen. John McCain will both address the conference via satellite.

"Why don't we go stand in the corner and stomp our feet like an 8-year-old?"

— John Edwards, quoted by The Orlando Sentinel deriding the Biden-Levin non-binding resolution against escalation in Iraq by comparing it to a child's tantrum as he called for tougher Congressional action on Iraq

"My slogan will be: 'GIVE US ONE MORE CHANCE!'"

— GOP Presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee, who like Bill Clinton comes from Hope, Arkansas, quoted by National Review on why Republicans would really send another Governor from Hope to the White House

So here's our question of the day. Many in the media have been obsessing a great deal in the past few days about how Dems are allegedly in disunity as a result of their efforts to out-do one another over what to do about Iraq. Yet the party that seems in far greater disunity about Iraq is the GOP. Why is the media so obsessed with Dem disunity when it's obvious that the GOP is cracking to pieces over Iraq? Read all about this right here -- it's a development that's worth a look.

Senator Tim Johnson may still be in the hospital recovering from emergency brain surgery, but that hasn't stopped him from beginning to staff up for his 2008 reelection campaign. The Associated Press reports that Johnson has hired Steve Jarding, a South Dakota native and top Dem strategist, who has worked for the likes of Bob Kerrey, Mark Warner, Tom Daschle and Jim Webb. So while Johnson is still absent from the Senate floor for now, it's looking like he'll nevertheless be back on the campaign trail in 2008.

John McCain has succeeded in poaching some political talent from Mitt Romney's turf, hiring a Boston political operative with intimate knowledge of Romney and his shifting political positions over the years, the Associated Press reports. The operative, Rob Gray of Gray Media, will advise McCain on "New England strategy," the AP says.

The kicker is that Gray is mainly useful to McCain because he was a top political adviser to Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, who ran a failed campaign last fall to succeed Romney as governor -- a failure that's partly attributable to the fact that Romney recently begain adopting more conservative positions than the ones he and Healey ran on back in 2002. So Gray has detailed knowledge of the vulnerabilities created by those shifts by Romney -- a body of knowledge that McCain evidently views as rather useful to him right now.

Though Barack Obama has the potential to make history as the nation's first African American President, black leaders are not yet rushing to his side, today's Los Angeles Times reports. In interviews, the primary worry they expressed was that Obama might not be able to win a general election -- and could possibly weaken the Dems' grip on Congress. "Obama's ambition could bring all of black America down," state Sen. Robert Ford of South Carolina told the paper. "If the Democrats lose control of Congress, we're going to go back and struggle and struggle and struggle."

Of course it's worth pointing out that it's not surprising that black leaders have not already decided to go with Obama -- there are two years until Election Day, after all, and while Obama has formed an exploratory committee, his announcement that he's finally, officially in the race hasn't taken place yet. "Obama has plenty of room to improve his standing, both with black community leaders and with black voters, who in the end won't necessarily follow the lead of clergy and others," the paper acknowledges. "Despite a growing national profile and two best-selling books, recent polls show that he remains unknown to many voters."

This has to be a milestone: A new poll has found that the American people dislike President Bush more than they dislike ... Dick Cheney. The poll — by Fox News, of all people — finds that President Bush's unfavorable rating is 58%, while Cheney's unpopularity rating is five points lower at 53%. Bush can, however, still take some small solace from the fact that his approval rating is one point higher than Cheney's; the President's is 38%, while the VP's is 37%.

Meanwhile, here are a couple of other numbers that are striking for a Fox poll: Only 39% of Americans view the GOP favorably, and 49% view them unfavorably. Meanwhile, a majority of respondents — 51% — have a favorable view of Dems, compared to only 35% who have an unfavorable view of what Fox likes to call the "Democrat Party."

In New Hampshire -- a state that's quickly turning from red to blue -- another Democrat has gotten into the race to unseat Senator John Sununu. The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that Katrina Swett, the wife of former Congressman Dick Swett and daughter of Congressman Tom Lantos, D-CA, will enter the Dem primary. Swett previously ran a losing campaign against then-Congressman Charlie Bass, R-NH, in 2002.

Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand has also said he intends to file a statement of candidacy, and Stonyfield CEO Gary Hirshberg and State Senator Dave Gottesman are also mulling a run. Of course, the race would be upended completely if former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, who lost to Sununu in 2002, were to enter the contest. Shaheen hasn't ruled out a run, and both Swett and Marchand have said they would get out of the way if Shaheen got in.

A new Diageo/Hotline poll finds President Bush's approval rating at its lowest ever in this particular survey: 35%. The previous record was 37% back in May of 2006. Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's approval has actually edged up since Election Day, despite a concerted effort by some on the right to drive her numbers down before the Dems took power (though her numbers are hardly stunning). Her approval rating is now 36%, up seven points from 29% in November. Still, 40% of respondents are undecided about Pelosi -- a sign that Americans are "reserving judgment" about the Dems' performance, the poll says.

Having trouble keeping track of all the bills that are being proposed in Congress on President Bush's escalation plan? Well, here's a handy guide to all of them. We'll continue updating as more bills come in, and please let us know if we've missed any. Herewith, our guide:

* Ted Kennedy was first out of the gate nine days ago, introducing a bill to prohibit troop increases. His act was key in that it opened the floodgates for others' proposals — especially after GOP Senator Gordon Smith from Oregon called Kennedy's effort "a good idea."

* Joe Biden yesterday introduced a non-binding resolution that declares escalation to be against our national interest — but the bill is merely symbolic, as it doesn't include any practical or legal impediments to escalation. Biden's bill is thus far the only one with bipartisan sponsorship: It was introduced by him, Senator Carl Levin, D-MI, and on the GOP side, Senators Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and Olympia Snowe of Maine.

* Hillary Clinton has proposed a far-reaching bill that would prohibit a troop increase without Congressional approval, and would impose certain benchmarks on the Iraqi government to be met within six months. Clinton's bill was followed immediately by a promise from Senator Barack Obama to introduce a bill of his own calling for phased withdrawal.

* Chris Dodd also introduced an anti-escalation bill yesterday — and aides are reportedly complaining that Hillary's proposal is a copy of his own.

* GOP Sens. John Warner, Susan Collins and Norm Coleman, along with conservative Democrat Ben Nelson, have introduced their own resolution against the President's proposal, with only slightly different wording from the Biden-Levin-Hagel resolution.

* And finally, on the other end of the spectrum, the House Republican leadership and Rep. Sam Johnson, R-TX, have introduced a pro-surge bill to prohibit Congress from cutting off funds for troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Tying in Afghanistan to the bill would likely give the GOP a club to use against Democrats in swing districts.

Here's an expert's take on the politics of all this and what Dems can reap from a situation where the President is certain to veto anything they put forward.

Barack Obama -- who's just enjoyed wall-to-wall favorable coverage of his announcement that he's entering the Presidential race -- holds a slight edge in the key primary state of New Hampshire, according to a new Zogby poll. It finds that Obama has 23% of Granite State respondents, while Hillary Clinton and John Edwards are tied for second place at 19 percent. On the GOP side, John McCain holds a larger lead over Rudy Giuliani than he has in other polls: He has 26% to Rudy's 20%, while Mitt Romney is in third place with 13%.

In his latest column, Stuart Rothenberg argues that while Rudy Giuliani exudes leadership and optimism, enjoys post-Sept. 11 celebrity and appears formidable in a general election, he can't overcome the crippling social liberalism that will prevent him from winning the GOP primary. Rothenberg also envisions a very interesting scenario unfolding if Giuliani somehow were to become the GOP nominee:

Does anyone seriously believe that a Democrat who opposes legal abortion could be nominated for president by his or her party?...

And if the Democrats wouldn’t nominate a cultural conservative, why should anyone believe that Republicans would pick a social liberal? It seems to me that you need to suspend all your analytical faculties to believe the GOP will nominate for president a Republican who supports abortion rights, and is pro-gun control and pro-gay rights. It just isn’t going to happen, at least not in my lifetime.

Giuliani’s strong showing in GOP polling reflects his celebrity status and the reputation he earned after the terrorist attacks. But if and when he becomes a candidate, that will change. He will be evaluated on the basis of different things, including his past and current positions and behavior, and he’ll be attacked by critics and opponents. A Giuliani nomination would also generate a conservative third-party candidate in the general election and tear the GOP apart, thereby undercutting Giuliani’s electability argument.

So, the former mayor might make a terrific general election candidate, but I don’t see how he can get there as a Republican.

The idea of Giuliani as the GOP nominee generating a third-party challenge from the right is an intriguing one, and does seem like it would be awfully likely, now that Rothenberg brings it up. Doesn't it?

Yes, you read that headline right: One of The Washington Post's top columnists did argue today that the fact that Dems are launching one initiative after another against escalation is actually helpful to Bush. Read about it here.

Here's a quick roundup of political news relating to down-ticket races:

* Democrats plan to use the issue of stem-cell research against two Republican Senators from blue states who have voted against it: Norm Coleman and John Sununu, The Hill reports.

* Coleman, meanwhile, is busy raising money for an expected challenge from a strong Democratic contender, possibly from comedian Al Franken.

* Senator Tom Harkin told The Des Moines Register that he is taking the necessary steps to run for re-election in 2008, but stopped short of a full commitment. The 67-year old Harkin said, "until I tell you differently, the Democratic presidential nominee will have Harkin on the ballot in Iowa."

* The Hill reports that freshman Rep. Nancy Boyda, D-KS, might face former state Attorney General Phill Kline in 2008. Kline — who does not live in Boyda's district — was defeated for re-election in historically Republican Kansas by a wide margin last Fall.

* Nathan Daschle, son of former Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle, has been appointed as the new executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, Roll Call is reporting.

* Roll Call notes that a special election nexth month for the New York State Senate would — if Dems pick up the open GOP-held seat — leave Democrats just two seats away from a majority. If a majority is achieved in 2008 or 2010, their ability to totally control redistricting would have a drastic impact on the state's six remaining GOP House members.

A new poll shows that a majority of Americans don't believe President Bush's assurances that his planned Iraq war escalation will only be temporary. The new Rasmussen poll asks: "How likely is it that most U.S. troops will be out of Iraq within a year?" The answers: only 17% thought it somewhat or very likely, while 52% said it was "not very likely" and 28% said "not at all likely." That's a total of 80 percent who think it's unlikely — can Americans' hope for progress in Iraq get any bleaker?

A new poll finds that a narrow majority of Americans wants Congress to take active steps to block President Bush's plan to escalate the Iraq war. The Los Angeles Times poll finds that 51% want Congress to "try to block Bush from sending more troops to Iraq." Twenty five percent say lawmakers should "deny funding for the increase," and 26% say they "should find other legislative measures to stop him." The key here is that this poll suggests that a majority wants Congress to take concrete steps to block escalation, not merely symbolic ones.

Comedian Al Franken has been reaching out to Minnesota Dems to solicit their thoughts on whether he should try to unseat GOP Senator Norm Coleman, the Associated Press reports. Franken told the AP that one factor in particular is giving him pause: "It's unknown how people will respond to a comedian running for the Senate. I need to figure out a way to let people know I'm extremely serious about Minnesotans and their lives." Franken has also reached out to pollsters and political professionals, and hopes to make a decision in the next few weeks.

A new Gallup poll of the Presidential contenders finds what just about every other poll of the race has founnd: Hillary Clinton is leading among Dems, while on the GOP side, the frontrunners are John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Clinton leads the Dems with 29%, while Barack Obama is second with 18% and John Edwards is in third place with 13%. And here's an interesting number: When the pollster's question narrows the field to just Clinton and Obama, the former First Lady has a commanding lead of 53% over Obama's 39%.

On the Republican side, Giuliani maintains a slight lead, with 31% to McCain's 27%. Newt Gingrich is in third place, with 10%, while Mitt Romney languishes in fourth with seven percent.

So what should we think of Hillary Clinton's announcement today that she's planning to introduce a new bill requiring President Bush to get Congressional authorization for escalation? What should we think of other Congressional Dems' responses today? We posed the questions to Professor Stephen Wayne, an expert on government at Georgetown. His take: Clinton's proposal is all about politics — but it is good politics, both for the individuals who launched the proposals today and for the Dems in general. More after the jump.

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Barely moments after Hillary Clinton concluded her press conference this afternoon calling for a "cap" on the number of troops in Iraq, Barack Obama's office sent out a statement saying that he, too, would be introducing his own Iraq legislation. Key quote:

That is why I not only favor capping the number U.S. troops in Iraq, but believe it’s imperative that we begin the phased redeployment I called for two months ago, and intend to introduce legislation that does just that.”

Given what Clinton said today about a troop cap, it's hard not to notice Obama's "I not only favor capping" line. Full statement after the jump.

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Here's some video of Hillary Clinton at today's press conference: "I plan to introduce legislation with regard to Iraq that includes three components. First, it will cap the level of troops in Iraq at the levels they existed on January 1st and will require the administration to seek Congressional authorization for any additional troops. This type of troops limit has ample historical precedent, including a cap on the number of U.S. troops in Lebanon in 1983. And more recently, Congress has limited the number of U.S. troops in Columbia." Her bill would, among other things, also place conditions to be met by the Iraqi government which, if not met, could lead to a defunding of the Iraqi security forces. View the video here. More soon.

Senator Hillary Clinton just said at a press conference being broadcast on MSNBC right now that she's planning to introduce her own bill requiring Congressional authorization for a troop increase.

And more may lie ahead. One key quote from Clinton: "We will eventually have to move to tougher requirements on the Administration to get their attention."

More -- including video -- soon.

Even as the maneuvering intensifies in the Senate over President Bush's escalation plan, Republicans in the House are now trying to pre-empt Democratic action against escalation by introducing a bill that would prohibit Congress from cutting off funds for "troops in the field, " CNN is reporting. According to House Minority Leader John Boehner, the bill is expected to be introduced today by Texas GOP Rep. Sam Johnson, a former Vietnam prisoner of war.

What makes this move intriguing is that Dems have repeatedly been on record saying that they won't defund "troops in the field." The measure presumably is meant to apply to possible future efforts by Dems to block funding for additional troops, something that some Dems are considering. It's unclear as yet how the mechanics of such a confrontation would unfold.

So one potential Republican candidate for the seat of retiring GOP Senator Wayne Allard has just said he's not running: John Elway. The former Denver Broncos quarterback tells Newsradio 850 KOA that he won't make the bid, though he did add that he wouldn't completely "leave it out" -- i.e., "rule" it out. Allard's retirement sets the stage for a very competitive race in 2008 for a key Senate seat in the West. Word of Allard's departure immediately stirred speculation that Elway might step in as the GOP candidate for the open seat and by dint of his fame in the state enable the seat to be kept in GOP hands. Not gonna happen, apparently.

Two tidbits of news about Barack Obama's impending Presidential campaign:

* Obama is telling his fundraisers that he thinks he may need to raise up to $70 million for the primaries alone. According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Obama made the comment yesterday on a conference call with his moneymen, also adding that he hopes to raise $500,000 on his first official day in the race, which is expected to be Feb. 10.

* Obama has also started fleshing out his post-announcement travel plans, according to the Sun-Times. After the Feb. 10 ceremony in Springfield kicking off his candidacy, his first stop that same day will be in the key primary state of Iowa.

How expensive are the Dem primaries likely to be? Well, Sen. Barack Obama told a group of fundraisers yesterday that he may need to raise as much as $70 million for the primary season alone. Obama, speaking on a conference call, also told his supporters that he hopes to raise $500,000 on his first day in the race, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

That first day is expected to be Feb. 10, when Obama will make a public pronouncement of his official intentions in Springfield, Ill. following an "exploratory" period. For those doubting that Obama will surely run, the Sun-Times notes that Obama will campaign in Iowa later that same day.

Here are some updates on the movements of the Presidential hopefuls:

* A Rasmussen poll released today shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama statistically tied among Democrats across the country. This poll, strikingly, was conducted last week, before Obama's announcement of an exploratory committee.

* John McCain is struggling to connect with conservative activists -- even his home state of Arizona. He placed a distant fourth in a Maricopa County Republican straw poll held last week.

* Chris Dodd is introducing a bill to prohibit troop escalation in Iraq, taking a harder line than the non-binding resolution being offered by Harry Reid and the rest of the Democratic leadership — not to mention Presidential candidates Barack Obama and Clinton.

* Mitt Romney's committee has just announced the appointment of three GOP Congressmen as the campaign's House liasons: Jim McCrery, R-LA, Dave Camp, R-MI, and Buck McKeon, R-CA.

* Sam Brownback and Duncan Hunter will appear at the Blogs4Life Conference on January 22, the 34th anniversay of the Roe v. Wade decision, alongside other speakers such as Ramesh Ponnuru and Bobby Schindler, brother of the late Terri Schiavo.

* Tom Tancredo, the fiery anti-immigration GOP Congressman, has announced that he will form an exploratory committee.

Here's the ad MoveOn.org is now running in Iowa and New Hampshire attacking John McCain on escalation. As shots of McCain embracing President Bush fill the screen, a narrator says: "John McCain has done more than just embrace George Bush's failed policy in Iraq. It's actually his idea to escalate the war there. It's John McCain's idea to send tens of thousands of more soldiers to Iraq and to keep them there with no timeline for bringing them home. The McCain plan to escalate. Going from bad. To Worse." View it here.

Via Atrios. What do you all think of the ad? Thoughts?

A day after Senator Barack Obama entered the Presidential race, his chief rival, Hillary Clinton, went on a variety of network and radio shows and called for a cap on troops in Iraq. Clinton said she is against President Bush's escalation, favors redeploying troops out of Iraq and wants economic aid conditions placed on the Iraq government to force progress towards various political goals.

Clinton's every utterance on Iraq is likely to undergo heavy scrutiny, particularly now that her two chief rivals -- Obama and John Edwards -- are both officially in the race and have both taken tougher positions on the Iraq war than she has. Clinton has a press conference on Iraq scheduled for this afternoon that will almost certainly get intense media coverage. We'll keep you posted.

Senator Chuck Hagel will introduce the Democrats' anti-escalation resolution, giving the measure a bipartisan stamp, today's New York Times reports. Hagel has been in talks with Dem Senators Joe Biden and Carl Levin over the wording of the resolution, and the three could introduce the measure as early as today.

Meanwhile, the behind-the-scenes politics in the Senate are getting more and more intense around the escalation question. GOP Senators who favor Bush's escalation are working behind the scenes to come up with an alternative resolution in hopes