Via Atrios, Hillary Clinton has told ABC News in an interview in Baghdad that it's time to start bringing the troops home. "Clinton said it is time to start re-deploying U.S. troops out of Iraq," ABC says, quoting her as follows: "That would really demonstrate to the Iraqis that we don't have an open-ended commitment," she said. "We are not going to be here providing protection for their leaders, which we do. We are not going to be here standing by and trying to be called in from time to time as they see fit. That is not in the cards." Clinton also noted that the level of security was much higher than her first visit two years ago; on this trip, ABC reports, she had to wear body armor and was surrounded by soldiers.
If you want to know already whether Barack Obama is running for President, you may have only a few days left to wait. The Associated Press reports that senior Obama adviser Steve Hildebrand has been telling Iowa supporters that the final word may be coming early next week. (Keep in mind that Monday is Martin Luther King day.) AP also reports that should he run, Obama will base his campaign in Chicago. Says onetime Gore adviser Donna Brazile: "As far as I can see, he's in the race."
In the wake of President Bush's "surge" speech, Rasmussen Reports has today recorded an approval rating of 35% for the President -- "the lowest level of approval ever measured by Rasmussen Reports," according to the firm. What makes this even more striking is the fact that Rasmussen has generally recorded better numbers for the President than other pollsters. According to Rasmussen, Bush's numbers have plummeted at a staggering pace since his speech — from 44% on Wednesday, to 39% on Thursday, to 35% today. That's a nine point drop in the two-days since his televised address. View a screen grab of Rasmussen's polling chart here.
GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo will decide whether to run for President in the "next couple of weeks," his spokesman tells Election Central. Tancredo is visiting Iowa this weekend to "gauge" the "interest" he can drum up in the state, his spokesman, Carlos Espinosa, says. Espinosa adds that Tancredo expects two things to happen on Monday that will help him make up his mind: He expects Barack Obama to announce his Presidential intentions, and also expects Sen. Wayne Allard to declare whether he's seeking reelection to his seat, which Tancredo has coveted "for some time." According to Espinosa, Tancredo is waiting for those two shoes to drop before setting about making up his mind.
So where do GOP Senators stand on the President's plans to escalate the war?
Despite the administration's agressive campaign to garner support for the escalation of U.S. forces in Iraq, the plan is increasingly being met with skepticism where it really hurts: key Republicans in the Senate. And if the President loses his own party, he loses his bid to escalate.
So we're keeping track here at Election Central of which GOP Senators have passed judgment on the plan and what they've said. Here's the tally as it stands now: Seven Republicans firmly against and nine more expressing reluctance or skepticism.
Our full rundown of who stands where is after the jump -- and we'll update it as new info comes in. Have we missed anyone? Let us know in comments or by email (talk at talkingpointsmemo.com).
As Josh noted over at TPM, Senator Joe Lieberman has just taken the very surprising step of revealing to Newsweek via an aide that he will not use his chairmanship on the Homeland Security committee to aggressively probe the government's catastrophic failings in the wake of Hurricane Katrina — in direct contradiction of statements he made during last year's campaign. In other words, Lieberman's basically letting the White House off the hook for its largest domestic policy disaster to date.
We thought this punt by Lieberman was pretty eye-opening. So we decided to call all the Dem Presidential hopefuls, all the Dems on Homeland Security, and a few Gulf Coast pols to get their reaction to it. More after the jump.
The polls keep coming -- and they keep showing rock-bottom support for President Bush's plan to escalate the war in Iraq. The latest comes courtesy of CNN, which has just released a poll finding that two in three Americans -- 66% -- oppose sending more troops, 50% strongly. Only 31% think the additional troops will make it "more likely" that the U.S. will achieve its goals in Iraq. Strikingly, Dems hold a 17-point edge on the question of who Americans trust more to handle Iraq: A slight majority of 51% trust the Dem Congress more, while only 34% placed their trust in the President. The poll was taken Thursday -- after Bush's speech the night before. Full poll results here.
Florida politicians are angling to move up its primary to only a week after the New Hampshire contest — a move that would upend the electoral calendar by placing a large state into an early position in the process, the Associated Press is reporting. A bill is making its way through the legislature with wide backing from both parties to hold the Florida primary only a week after New Hampshire, which would be on the same day — and thus overshadow — South Carolina.
People pushing the plan claim it would bring a more diverse electorate into play earlier in the game. But opponents, who will likely include the national parties, argue that such a move would favor well-funded, better-known candidates who can afford the high campaign expenses of running in a large state early on — seriously hurting lesser-known, less-flush candidates who might otherwise have been able to gain ground in early small-state primaries. It's unclear as of this writing when the legislature will make their final decision.
GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo is headed to Iowa today to kick off a weekend of public book signings. Could it be the start of the anti-immigration hardliner's nascent campaign for President? Quite possibly. The Des Moines Register is reporting that Tancredo will announce his '08 intentions during his trip through the state. Tancredo will be in Iowa through Monday -- maybe he'll announce on MLK Jr. day.
After a midterm election in which Dems already picked up 30 GOP-held House seats, are there really another 35 such seats in play going into the 2008 elections? Yes, according to a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee memo written by DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen that was sent out today to "interested parties" (i.e., donors and the media).
"I am in the process of targeting open seats, districts where Republicans won by less than 5%, seats won by Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election and districts occupied by ethically challenged incumbents," Van Hollen writes. He adds that there are 20 GOP House seats where the GOPer won by than 5 percent of the vote.
Van Hollen also promises an aggressive effort to continue pummeling GOP incumbents on ethics questions. "The 2006 cycle proved that ethics matters to average voters," he writes. "While there were several Republicans defeated this past cycle as a direct result of their ethical lapses, a handful returned to Washington and should be considered among the most vulnerable. We will aggressively work in districts targeting ethically challenged incumbents like Tim Murphy (PA-18), Gary Miller (CA-42), Rick Renzi (AZ-01), John Doolittle (CA-04), Jerry Lewis (CA-41) and Vito Fossella (NY-13)."
Of course, this is hardly the whole story, since plenty of Dems also picked up seats by less than 5% of the vote, and resources will have to be invested in retaining those seats. A quick Election Central tally shows that nearly half the House seats picked up by Dems -- 13 -- were also won by less than 5% of the vote. So the memo tells only part of what's going on.
Still, our quick tally does show that there were significantly more seats held by the GOP within a 5% margin (20) than there were Dem pickups with that margin (13). So maybe Van Hollen is right when he writes that Dems are "aggressively on offense."
* John McCain has picked up a key endorsement in South Carolina: Secretary of State Mark Hammond. McCain is also heading to Alabama on Monday, Martin Luther King Day, to attend the inauguration of Republican Governor Bob Riley to a second term. Alabama will holds its primary on Feb. 5, 2008.
* Rudy Giulianiis dismissing the issues raised in his leaked campaign playbook — relating to his liberal social stances and past divorces — saying, "I sure have strengths and weaknesses ... I think that sort of puts me in the same category as just about everybody else that's running."
* Rep. Ron Paul, R-TX, has filed papers to run for the GOP nomination for President. Paul was previously the Libertarian nominee for President in 1988.
Update: In down-ticket news in New Hampshire, Democratic Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand announced that he will run against GOP Senator John Sununu. He said his decision was clinched by the DSCC's announced targeting of the race and the decision by former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, who narrowly lost to Sununu in 2002, not to run.
This is interesting. On Sunday -- the day before Martin Luther King day and the 40th anniversary a famous speech by MLK against the Vietnam war -- John Edwards is coming to Harlem to deliver an antiwar speech, a move that will inevitably be interpreted as an invasion of the turf of potential Presidential rival Hillary Clinton, who has been distinctly less vocal about the war than he's been. According to today's New York Daily News, Edwards' remarks will be "about Iraq and the need for people in Congress to engage on the issue," in the words of one source. "He'll push for an up-or-down vote on the war."
"While Edwards is not likely to mention Sen. Hillary Clinton by name," the paper says, "his remarks will leave no doubt he has the New York senator in mind when he criticizes the war." Edwards supports Edward Kennedy's bill to block an escalation of the conflict, and a speech this Sunday evoking MLK's opposition to the war 40 years ago could prove to be a powerful symbolic moment that further distinguishes Edwards as the candidate of choice for antiwar voters.
A huge majority of Americans -- three out of four, or 75% -- thinks that President Bush should get Congressional approval for his plan to escalate the war in Iraq, according to a new CBS News poll. Just as strikingly, less than three in 10 Americans -- 28% -- have confidence in Bush's ability to make decisions about Iraq. Meanwhile, nearly seven in 10 -- 68% -- are "uneasy" about his ability to do the same. Full poll results here.
"It's bad policy to speculate on what you'll do if a plan fails when you're trying to make a plan work."
-- Condoleezza Rice, quoted in The Washington Post speaking at today's hearings before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (special thanks to TPM Reader SW for the tip)
The skirmishing between Mitt Romney and Sam Brownback for the support of conservatives is getting more enetertaining by the day. As we reported early this week, Brownback trumpeted the backing of a slew of prominent social-conservative activists in Massachusetts he'd won over, many of whom suggested that conservatives shouldn't feel secure about Romney's commitment to the cause.
Now Romney's respnded in kind, releasing his own letter from a bunch of Massachusetts conservative activists who say that Romney actually can be trusted on their issues. The letter — which you can read here in our TPM Document Collection — praises Romney's record as Governor on issues from abortion to gay marriage and excuses his past lapses into liberalism. Key quote:
"It is clear that Governor Romney has learned much since 1994 – to the benefit of our movement and our Commonwealth. In fact, the entire nation has benefited from his socially conservative, pro-family actions in office. As we explained earlier, his leadership on the marriage issue helped prevent our nation from being plunged into even worse legal turmoil following the court decision that forced 'gay marriage' upon our Commonwealth."
Senator Tim Johnson's recovery after emergency brain surgery has hit a milestone: He's beginning to speak. Johnson's office has just a released a statement that quotes Johnson doctor Vivek Deshmukh as follows: "Yesterday, Senator Johnson underwent an MRI which showed that his speech centers were spared of injury. This is confirmed by the fact that he is following commands and has started to say words."
Here's a key number buried in today's Washington Post/ABC News poll on President Bush's speech: A surprising 53% support Democratic efforts to cut off funding for additional troops, while only 44% oppose it. The survey also found that only 36% said they support Bush's escalation plan. A solid majority -- 61% -- oppose escalation, with 52% opposing it "strongly." The poll was taken after the President's speech last night. Meanwhile, the new Associated Press-Ipsos poll finds an even larger majority against escalation: 70%.
Is yogurt mogul Gary Hirshberg the man for the Dems against New Hampshire GOP Senator John Sununu? The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that Hirshberg, the CEO of Stonyfield Yogurt, is considering whether to try and unseat Sununu in 2008. Hirshberg is a long-time Dem donor who has been raising cash for Tom Vilsack. Chuck Schumer has listed New Hampshire as a top target for Dems in 2008, in the wake of massive gains there this past November.
In addition to a potential self-financing candidacy by Hirshberg, the Union Leader also reports that the following other Democrats are thinking about whether to jump into the race: State Senator David Gottesman, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, and former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, who lost to Sununu in 2002.
On an interview with Sean Hannity of Fox News last night, Rudy Giuliani made a rather startling claim: He said that "many" Democrats recently were in favor of escalation in Iraq! Watch it below:
Here's a transcript:
SEAN HANNITY: But as I listen to even the lead up to the President's speech tonight, how many Democrats, they're now threatening to do everything they can do legislatively, to cut off funding for the new troops?
RUDY GIULIANI: I'm a little, I'm really confused about it, because I think it was only a month ago that many of these Democrats were talking about increasing the number of troops in Iraq.
HANNITY:
By the way, I have a list --
GIULIANI: Putting more boots on the ground --
HANNITY: Biden, Kerry, Pelosi, Reid all said the same thing.
GIULIANI: You sort of get the feeling, you get the feeling, that if he hadn't put in more troops, instead of attacking him this way, they would say, "we should've put more troops in." Or at least some of them would have. They have said that before.
What is this man talking about?
The only Dems we can think of aside from Joe Lieberman who supported escalation in any form are Rep. Silvestre Reyes and Rep. Nancy Boyda, who recently said she'd vote to fund more troops but remained skeptical of the plan. Can anyone think of anyone else?
What we've clearly got here is an emerging new talking point. Many Dems have criticized the Bush administration for not sending enough troops -- that is, back when it would have made a difference. That fact is now magically being transformed into the idea that Dems have been generally supportive of escalation now and in the recent past -- that is, when it's almost certainly too late to make a difference.
Sure, it's hardly surprising that Hannity would try a ruse as transparent as this one, but Giuliani? The guy who's never afraid to say what he really thinks? Unimaginable!
Senator Barack Obama hasn't declared that he's running for President yet, but he's just hired three new top campaign staffers. The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Obama is expected to tap David Plouffe, a former executive director of the DCCC, as his campaign manager. He's also signed up DNC research director Devorah Adler and DNC deputy director Shauna Daly to play similar roles in his nascent campaign organization.
Our full and updated list of all staffers on all the Presidential campaigns is here.
John Edwards and Newt Gingrich may be trailing in their respective Presidential fields, but there's one place where both candidates are running strong: North Carolina. Today's News Observer reports that a new poll by the Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling shows that among Democrats, native son John Edwards holds a solid lead with 29%, with Hillary Clinton second at 16% and Barack Obama essentially tied with Clinton at 15%. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani and Southerner Newt Gingrich are statistically tied, with Rudy at 30% and Newt at 29%, followed by John McCain at 22% and Mitt Romney with 6%. North Carolina and a slew of other states will host a primary for both parties on February 5, 2008.
It's a done deal: Denver will host the Democratic National convention. The DNC's release just landed in our in-box:
Washington, DC - Citing the Denver host committee's strong bid and growing Democratic gains in the Rocky Mountain West, Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean today announced that Denver will host the 2008 Democratic National Convention Monday, August 25 to Thursday, August 28.
From the statement by Dean himself:
"There is no question that the West is important to the future of the Democratic Party. The recent Democratic gains in the West exemplify the principle that when we show up and ask for people's votes and talk about what we stand for, we can win in any part of the country. Additionally, we have a number of strong Democratic leaders in the West who will be a part of showcasing the vision of Democratic leadership for America as we introduce the next Democratic President in the Rocky Mountains."
That will make many Dems very happy. It came down to a choice between New York's logistical prowess and Denver's prime location as a place to continue building on the party's big wins in the Mountain West. More soon.
As Election Central reported below, a new video surfaced yesterday of Mitt Romney debating Ted Kennedy in 1994. Romney was shown expressing all sorts of opinions -- support for abortion rights, lack of total devotion to Ronald Reagan -- that are considered heretical to the social conservatives who decide GOP presidential primaries, and the video was all over the internet yesterday.
Now Romney has finally responded to all the fuss -- and appears to blame unnamed liberals for finding and releasing the video. The Boston Globe reports that Romney last night called in to a conservative Internet broadcast called "The Glenn and Helen Show" to react to the furor over the video.
"I'm grayer, I'm a little heavier, and I hope I've grown a bit wiser as well," Romney said. "Of course, I was wrong on some issues back then. I'm not embarrassed to admit that. I think most of us learn with experience. I know I certainly have."
Romney went on to tout what he described as the conservative nature of his tenure as governor of Massachusetts, and concluded:
"Now, that's my record," Romney continued. "And maybe that's why people on the other side are dredging up 13-year-old history and attacking me now."
The other side. In other words, the side he was more or less on until he decided it was no longer expedient.
Enter Chris Dodd. The Connecticut Senator is planning to announce that he's running for President on Don Imus' radio show this morning, the Hartford Courant reports. Dodd, who spent part of 2006 traveling to early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, doesn't have anywhere near the money and visibility of rivals like Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, or John Edwards. But he believes that diehard Democrats "will appreciate his long service to the party and its pet causes, from civil rights to women's issues to using more negotiation and diplomacy as foreign policy tools," the Courant reports. No word yet from Dodd himself on his planned announcement.
This certainly isn't going to make Harold Ford, Jr., any new friends on the internet. According to Radar magazine, Ford is set to become the next head of the "moderate" Democratic Leadership Council, replacing outgoing chair and Presidential candidate Tom Vilsack. In a memo obtained by the mag that was written by Ford to DLC founder Al From, Ford appears to accept the gig, writing: "I have enjoyed our conversations and am excited about becoming the Chairman of the DLC."
Intriguingly, the memo also seems to suggest that despite the fact that it was run by Vilsack, the DLC isn't planning to back Vilsack for President, and will likely support Hillary instead. "I assume there will be an effort to help Senator Clinton's campaign, and I would support such an effort," Ford writes. No word in the memo on whether Ford intends to take the DLC in a new political direction; indeed, Ford suggests that he'll see to that it continues on its current course. "You have a proven track record," Ford writes. "It's time to take this model to the next level."
Great Moments In Fox News Dept...Sean "Enemy Of The State" Hannity had another remarkable outing on Fox last night. Hannity was holding forth on the public battle between Rosie O'Donnell and Donald Trump, and he predicted that O'Donnell's show, The View, would tank for the following reasons:
(1) "She tries to dominate."
(2) "She takes over the show."
(3) "She says one controversial thing after another."
(4) "[She will be] almost viewed as cartoonish after a while."
You can't escape it: Hannity is proving himself to be a master of unintentional irony.
The White House has just sent out selected excerpts of President Bush's planned speech tonight calling for escalation of the Iraq war. One line in particular jumped out at us:
Victory [in Iraq] will not look like the ones our fathers and grandfathers achieved. There will be no surrender ceremony on the deck of a battleship.
The White House has just sent out selected excerpts of President Bush's planned speech tonight calling for escalation of the Iraq war. One line in particular jumped out at us:
Victory will not look like the ones our fathers and grandfathers achieved. There will be no surrender ceremony on the deck of a battleship.
"The basic problem that you have is that you've got a stubborn jerk in the White House who will ignore anything and do what he wants to do."
-- Dem Rep. Jerrold Nadler, in an interview with The Politicker, explaining why it's important for Congress to cut off funding for escalation. Relatedly, The Politicker has some exclusive details on Nadler's long-shot bill to do just that.
John McCain's call for escalation of the Iraq conflict has turned him into the target of the first sustained ad barrage of Campaign 2008. CNN's political ticker reports that MoveOn.org is planning to spend over $100,000 on ads blasting McCain for his pro-"surge" position in Iowa and New Hampshire next week. MoveOn political director Eli Pariser told CNN that the ads were being timed to Bush's unveiling of his escalation proposal "because this is ultimately his idea that Bush is implementing and primary voters need to know that. "The McCain camp declined comment on MoveOn's plans.
For days and days now, John McCain has been arguing that Joe Lieberman's reelection indicates that the nation doesn't genuinely want to pull out of Iraq — and that a pro-pullout message should not be taken from the overall election results. Today, for instance, McCain said: "Joe Lieberman would never have been re-elected — a strong proponent of the war — against an opponent who was for pullout, if that was the American people's attitude." You can watch McCain make this claim on the YouTube below.
There's a small problem with this argument, however: It's easily torn apart with even a quick look at the available statistics.
First, let's take a look at Connecticut's exit polls. They show that sending more troops had the support of — get this — 15% of voters! Meanwhile, 63% of voters said some or even all troops should be withdrawn, in complete opposition to Lieberman's real position.
Second, given the total number of people who cast their vote for Lieberman, it's nothing short of absurd to say that it's in any way indicative of anything national. According to the final results, a total of 563,725 people voted for Lieberman — in other words, just over half a million in a nation of 300 million people.
Finally, Lieberman won because he was able to misrepresent his views on Iraq, not because voters agreed with his actual views on the subject. Back in July, Lieberman actually said he thought we'd be able to draw down "significant" numbers of troops by now. What's more, Lieberman worked hard to blur the line between himself and Ned Lamont on the Iraq issue. In one ad, for instance, he spoke of wanting to "bring our troops home from Iraq."
The numbers — and Lieberman's own statements during the campaign — prove that McCain's debunked claim is at best false, and at worst dishonest.
Update: The Carpetbagger Report has much more on another key aspect of the mendacity and denial McCain exhibited in his interview today.
It's official: President Bush will send 17,500 new combat troops and 4,000 more Marines to Iraq, the Associated Press is now reporting. This and other aspects of the plan were detailed today by White House officials. View a rundown of the plan here.
In a sign that there may be a price to be paid by Democrats for nominating pro-life candidates, Dem Senator Bob Casey is poised to vote against a key Democratic initiative: A bill providing Federal financing for embryonic stem-cell research. More after the jump.
Josh Benson of The New York Observer has just gotten his hands on an amazing find: Video of Mitt Romney at a 1994 debate with Ted Kennedy, whom Romney was trying to unseat from the Senate at the time. In the debate, Romney -- who's tried to position himself as the GOP primary's only authentic conservative -- forcefully expresses his support for abortion rights and aggressively distances himself from the policies of Ronald Reagan.
Here's Romney on abortion:
"I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country. I have since the time that my mom took that position when she ran in 1970 as a U.S. Senate candidate. I believe that since Roe v. Wade has been the law for 20 years, that we should sustain and support it. And we should sustain and support that law and the right of a woman to make that choice."
And here's Romney on Reagan:
"I was an independent during the time of Reagan-Bush. I'm not trying to return to Reagan-Bush."
Though we've heard quotes like these from Romney before, video of him saying them in real time is going to make life much more miserable for Romney at a time when he's currently trying to persuade conservatives who have doubts about him that he is in fact a bona fide backer of their views on key social issues. Props to Benson -- who comments here -- for the find.
Mitt Romney is outworking John McCain in the battle for the support of conservative members of the House GOP minority, The Hill reports.
According to the paper, Romney was the first to reach out to House conservatives last year, capitalizing on what the paper calls their "anybody but McCain" attitude. After McCain caught wind of Romney's efforts, he started playing catchup, reaching out to House members who backed him in 2000, the paper reports.
One battleground where Romney is currently beating out McCain is Florida: Two major Florida Congressmen, Tom Feeney and House GOP Conference Chair Adam Putnam, are saying nice things about him and talking about his outreach to them, though neither has made a public endorsement just yet.
McCain's efforts among House conservatives suffered a setback recently when influential Michigan Rep. Pete Hoekstra came out against escalation, which is of course the centerpiece of McCain's platform. Failure to win Hoekstra's support could damage McCain in that key state.
Meanwhile, in another setback for McCain — this time in Iowa — Roll Call reports that "a majority of county Republican chairmen say he is far from the first choice of likely caucus voters."
Tom Vilsack has just become the first Democratic Presidential hopeful to call for a block on funding for additional troops going to Iraq. The Sioux City Journal reports that Vilsack called on Congress to withhold funding for escalation, though he stopped short of saying that Congress should defund the current troop presence in Iraq.
Vilsack's move is an interesting one in the context of Presidential politics, since no other candidate has called for a funding block. But it has ramifications in another way, too: It reveals divisions over Iraq among leading "moderate" Dem thinkers.
Vilsack is chair of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. But, as Atrios notes, Vilsack's call for a funding block puts him directly at odds with another leading light of "moderation," Will Marshall, the head of the Progressive Policy Institute. Marshall has complained that the "activist left" -- which wants a block on funding -- is "out of step with America." As Atrios writes, that would seem to suggest that Marshall believes that DLC chair Vilsack is "out of step with America," too.
With the White House about to launch a troop "surge" almost four years after declaring "Mission Accomplished," they're apparently sticking to a standard line: He never declared "Mission Accomplished," after all! Last night on Countdown, White House Press Secretary Tony Snow was declared the "Worst Person" for his Orwellian statement, "You know that the "Mission Accomplished" banner was put up by members of the USS Abraham Lincoln. And the President, on that very speech, said just the opposite, didn't he?" at yesterday's press briefing. After reviewing the mountain of public evidence against such a proposition, Olbermann told Snow: "I mean, you were hired to lie, at least do it well!"
Rudy Giuliani -- who's pondering a run for President, and hence presumably thinks he's Commander in Chief material -- is refusing to say where he stands on the most important policy question of the moment: Whether we should escalate the war in Iraq. The New York Post asked Giuliani spokesperson Sunny Mindel what his position on the "surge" was, and all she would say was this: "He very much looks forward to hearing" the President's speech tonight. As we've noted here in the past, it's very clear that Giuliani and his advisers haven't thought through what his position on Iraq should be. His silence on a "surge" is yet more proof that his 9/11 mystique is as much curse as blessing, because it's allowed him to avoid answering any tough questions on where he stands on issues. That won't last much longer.
Dems standing up to oppose President Bush's expected proposal to escalate the Iraq war will have plenty of bipartisan cover: At least 10 GOP Senators are expected to oppose Bush's "surge," GOP leaders have told the The New York Times. The revelation is buried deep in this article, which focuses mainly on the fact that Democrats are planning to force the hands of Republican members of Congress with a symbolic vote on escalation. "Republican officials conceded that at least 10 of their own senators were likely to oppose the plan to increase troops levels in Iraq," the Times reports. "And Democrats were proposing their resolution with that in mind, hoping to send a forceful message that as many as 60 senators" oppose escalation. No shortage of cover; nothing to fear.
Dems standing up to oppose President Bush's expected proposal to escalate the Iraq war will have plenty of bipartisan cover: At least 10 GOP Senators are expected to oppose President Bush's expected plan for escalation of the Iraq war, according to GOP leaders who spoke to The New York Times. The revelation is buried deep in this article, which focuses mainly on the fact that Democrats are planning to force the hands of Republican members of Congress with a symbolic vote on escalation. "Republican officials conceded that at least 10 of their own senators were likely to oppose the plan to increase troops levels in Iraq," the Times reports. "And Democrats were proposing their resolution with that in mind, hoping to send a forceful message that as many as 60 senators believed strengthening American forces in Baghdad was the wrong approach." Yep, no shortage of cover. Nothing to fear.
After publicly asserting again and again that he would let military commanders determine troop levels in Iraq, President Bush is poised to order those same commanders to implement an escalation they oppose and have advised against, today's Washington Post reports. Bush is expected to insist that escalation is the only viable option in a speech tonight at 7 P.M.
The Post reports that as recently as last month, Bush reiterated his claim that the commanders should determine troop strength:
"It's important to trust the judgment of the military when they're making military plans," he told The Washington Post in an interview last month. "I'm a strict adherer to the command structure."
Now, however, Bush has chucked that assertion overboard and instead is ordering military brass to do things his way. The paper says: "Pentagon insiders say members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff have long opposed the increase in troops and are only grudgingly going along with the plan because they have been promised that the military escalation will be matched by renewed political and economic efforts in Iraq."
Update: The Associated Press reports that Bush will attempt to make his escalation proposal more palatable to the public by acknowledging that not increasing troop strength earlier was a "mistake."
"Seeking support for a retooled strategy to win support for the unpopular war, the president also will acknowledge that the rules of engagement were flawed," the AP says.
With a decision on whether to run for President fast approaching, advisers to Hillary Clinton say she's likely to base her campaign near Washington, D.C., according to today's New York Times. One adviser tells the paper that while some Hillary advisers are worried that the choice of Washington could make her look too much like a D.C. insider, others dismiss such concerns and think D.C.'s logistically the best choice. “The thing is voters in the end won’t really care where she runs from,” one says. The paper notes that the last person who wasn't an incumbent or vice president to run a successful campaign from around D.C. was Ronald Reagan in 1980.
Meanwhile, the paper also reports that Clinton's expecting to announce whether she's running "in the next several weeks."
As we reported earlier today, South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint has endorsed Mitt Romney, and DeMint is already emerging as a key defender of Romney to social conservatives who are having doubts about him. Case in point: A new interview that DeMint has just given to the National Review Byron York.
In the interview DeMint, a hero to social conservatives, addresses one of Romney's most pressing problems — his change of heart on abortion — and makes the rather creative case that Romney's shift on the issue should make him more attractive to conservatives, not less. From the interview:
"I think he came by his previous position honestly," DeMint says — continuing through his study of genetic research and the question of when life begins. "He feels passionately that the value of human life begins at conception," DeMint says. "The idea that he might have changed his mind is very appealing to me, because we're not going to win that debate unless people change their minds and think it through."
Emphasis added. It's an interesting argument — a classic effort to turn a negative (Romney's apparent flip-flopping) into a positive (proof that he can change the minds of others, too). But will social conservatives buy it?
Update: In other key Romney news, former Massachusetts Governor William Weld is backing Romney rather than his friend Rudy Giuliani.
Meanwhile, the Romney camp reported today that their fundraising marathon yesterday netted them $6.5 million.
Senator Tim Johnson's condition has been upgraded from "critical" to "fair," the Associated Press is reporting. Johnson's doctors say rehabilitation should start in about a week.
Now this is a novel approach to fundraising: Some backers of Senator Hillary Clinton are raising money for her potential Presidential bid by reminding people that Dick Morris has promised to leave America if she's elected President. As Election Central reported recently, Morris said on Fox that if she wins in 2008, he's "leaving the country." Now Morris' promised departure has become a rallying cry for fundraising. Vote Hillary.org, an unoffical website supporting the Senator from New York, has posted an ad on their website spotlighting Morris' promise. It declares that by giving cash to Hillary you can "help buy his one way ticket to someplace far away." You can even vote on where Morris should be sent. View the ad here.
Senator Ted Kennedy just gave a forceful speech against escalation in Iraq. He quoted an unnamed American official as follows:
"The big problem is to get territory and to keep it. You could get it today, and it'll be gone next week. That is the problem. You have to have enough people to clear it, enough people to preserve what you have done."
Kennedy then asks: Who said that?
Was it President Bush? One of his pro-escalation generals? Watch the YouTube below and find out.
From Ned Lamont to Macaca, the internet is clearly gaining in importance with every new campaign season, so we here at Election Central thought it might be helpful to compile a list of blogs covering the 2008 presidential election on the local level. We've pulled together blogs ranging from professional newspapers covering the primaries in their state to lone individuals supporting their candidate of choice. Each offers a unique perspective on the dynamics of the already burgeoning race for the White House in 2008. Take a look.
Former Virginia GOP Governor Jim Gilmore has taken a step towards running for President this morning, filing papers with the FEC to form an exploratory committee, the Associated Press reports. To the extent Gilmore's known outside Virginia at all, it's as a tax-cutter who's rammed cuts through Dem-controlled legislatures and as a top official on a Congress-appointed commission launched in 1999 to investigate how better to handle the terror threat. The commission unveiled its work a week before September 11. Gilmore is only the latest of several GOP candidates who have justified their entry into the race by arguing that the field lacks a "true conservative."
Prediction: The wingnut commentators are gonna try and jump all over this one. According to The Hill, the chairs of the House Dems' Progressive Caucus are hosting a forum this Friday with former Senator George McGovern, who's written a book detailing a plan for withdrawal from Iraq. McGovern, of course, is the person that right-wingers are constantly arguing is the precursor to today's "cut-and-run Defeatocrats." So it wouldn't be all that surprising if the winger blogs and commentators pointed to this forum as proof that Dem calls for withdrawal reveal them to be neo-McGovernites at heart.
Everyone's buzzing about Al Sharpton's comments to the Associated Press suggesting he may run for President again, but there's actually some far more interesting news buried in the interview: Sharpton questioned the staying power of fellow African American Barack Obama as a Presidential candidate. What's more, Sharpton added that Obama wasn't the candidate who most impressed him right now.
"Right now we're hearing a lot of media razzle dazzle," Sharpton said. "I'm not hearing a lot of meat, or a lot of content. I think when the meat hits the fire, we'll find out if it's just fat or if there's some real meat there."
Sharpton said the candidate who impressed him most so far was former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who has made poverty the central issue of his campaign.
As for whether he'll run for President, Sharpton said: "I don't hear any reason not to. If we're talking about the urban agenda, can you tell me anybody else in the field who's representing that right now?"
Has the White House language machine lost the support of its favorite news outlet when it comes to the terminology it prefers to use to describe the proposed increase in troop strength? Sunday afternoon on Fox News, anchor Rudi Bakhtiar used the following words in describing the "surge" proposal: "a rapid influx of forces," "a troop increase," and most glaring of all, "[if Bush] chooses to escalate the war." Yep, even Fox News writers are using the word "escalate" now. To watch the video, click here.
Mitt Romney is moving aggressively to use the newly announced support of Senator Jim DeMint to bolster his conservative credentials at a time when they're being widely questioned by conservative activists. DeMint's endorsement of Romney was formally announced this morning, and the open letter touting it — which can be viewed here — extensively quotes DeMint praising Romney on all the issues Romney hopes to reassure conservatives about: Abortion, gay marriage, Social Security privatization, and — in a clear shot at John McCain — illegal immigration.
In an interesting bit of political sleight of hand, DeMint, who is widely revered by movement conservatives, is also trying to help Romney overcome another problem — his suspect conversion on abortion — into a positive. How? By making Romney's change on the issue a point of pride, rather than political flip-flopping. Some quotes from DeMint:
* "He will be a great asset to the cause of life because he has done something that we must convince many other Americans to do; he has changed his mind. After reviewing new scientific data, he is absolutely convinced that human life begins at conception. He will work to protect the lives of mothers and babies."
* "He supports a Federal Marriage Amendment that protects traditional marriage ... He also rejects government promotion of the homosexual lifestyle."
* "He does not believe that people who come to the U.S. illegally are entitled to a special right to citizenship."
* "Governor Romney has the vision and the courage to reform Social Security and Medicare for the next generation while guaranteeing promised benefits to today’s seniors."
With President Bush set to announce a plan for Iraq that will likely include an escalation of the conflict, a new USA Today/Gallup poll finds that a large majority of Americans oppose a "surge" in troops. When asked whether they would "favor or oppose" a "temporary but significant" increase, 61 percent oppose it, while 36 percent are in favor. And support dropped precipitiously for a "surge" when respondents were asked to choose between four options -- withdraw immediately, withdraw within a year, withdraw taking as many years as needed and increase troop strength. When the question was posed that way, escalation had the support of an astonishingly low 12 percent.
It looks as if Senator Sam Brownback is successfully poaching social conservative support from Romney on the former Massachusetts Governor's home turf. The Brownback campaign has just sent out a release touting the newly-won support of a cross-section of prominent social-conservative activists in Massachusetts.
The new Brownback supporters include current and past heads of groups such as Massachusetts Citizens for Life, Life-Guard PAC, and Pregnancy Services — and with that focus on pro-life issues, they could be key advocates for Brownback (and against Romney) on the issue. The release even includes a statement from the group that is pretty damning about Romney (emphasis ours), particularly considering that Romney has made such aggressive efforts to present himself as the last bulwark of conservatism against the liberal tendencies of the state:
"As residents of Massachusetts and leaders in the ongoing struggle to preserve the institution of marriage and uphold the sanctity of life, we have seen the efforts of the liberal left here in Massachusetts to impose their agenda through judicial mandate. They have been able to impose their liberal agenda on the people because of the failure of our elected officials to stand up and fight."
As noted previously, Brownback is starting to develop a strategy of using conservative surrogates to raise questions about Romney's commitment to the issues social conservatives care about. One can only predict that he'll be eager to have backers from Romney's home state do the same.
Lots of politically savvy people are encouraging Barack Obama to run for President, but one political veteran thinks it's too early for Obama: The Senator from Obama's birthplace of Hawaii, Daniel Inouye. The 82-year-old Inouye -- who's been in the Senate since the year of JFK's assassination and presumably knows a thing or two about waiting and biding one's time -- tells the Star-Bulletin in an interview that Obama's moment is decidedly not now.
"He has been in the Senate for, what, two years," Inouye tells the paper. "You can almost anticipate what they are going to do with him. It is always predictable. Someone is always digging up dirt. They will dig up everything, even traffic tags, the whole works." Inouye adds that the person best positioned to win the Dem primary is Hillary Clinton, "because of her financial resources and organizational resources."
In the early jockeying for support in key states, Mitt Romney appears to be making far more headway than his competitors in Florida — and he has Jeb Bush to thank for it. Today's Tampa Herald-Tribune offers up a detailed look at Romney's efforts in the state, and reports the following:
* According to the paper, "some GOP insiders say Romney has sought to recruit Bush as his running mate."
* Romney has the "tacit support" of Jeb Bush — though the new Governor Charlie Crist has been linked to John McCain.
* Romney is well ahead of McCain and Rudy Giuliani in building his organization there, with the help of Jeb insiders like Sally Bradshaw and Jeb fundraiser Ann Herberger, plus former state party Chairman Al Cardenas, former Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings, and other local pols from Jeb's political network.
* Romney is also making considerable headway with religious-right activists in the state, despite some suspicions over his moderate past.
Meanwhile, in other Romney news, the Boston Globe reports that he's spent the day on a massive fundraising marathon designed to net him $1 million.
Great Moments In Fox News Dept. Forget Keith Olbermann's "Worst Person In The World" contest — it's now been completely upstaged by a new Sunday contest on Fox: Sean Hannity's "Enemy of the State" award. Last night, Hannity's new Sunday night program aired for the first time, and from here on he'll award his "Enemy of the State" prize — a term originating with ancient Roman dictators placing bounties on rivals — on whatever red-state abortionist, anti-war activist, or run-of-the-mill Democrat who has attracted Hannity's ire that week. Imagine Hannity in that famous Twilight Zone episode, as the ranting Chancellor putting to death the old librarian portrayed by Burgess Meredith, and you'll get the idea. So who won the first "Enemy of the State" prize last night? To watch the segment and find out, view our YouTube here.
Barack Obama has yet to declare a candidacy for President, but he can already count on the enthusastic support of a prominent Democrat in the swing state of Minnesota. The DraftObama.org site reports that Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak is joining their cause, and will even go so far as to cancel previously scheduled events to join a rally on January 13. We're working to get confirmation.
Meanwhile, John McCain has also picked up a key Minnesota endorsement. The Star-Tribune reports that Tim Penny, the former Democratic Congressman and 2002 Independence Party nominee for Governor, has decided to throw his backing behind John McCain.
Update: Election Central has just spoken with Mayor Rybak's communications director, Jeremy Hanson, and has confirmed Rybak's endorsement of Obama and his planned attendance of this Saturday's rally.
Signaling that social conservative Sam Brownback intends to move aggressively to undermine Mitt Romney's credibility with conservatives, a top Brownback adviser has opened fire on Romney, suggesting that he isn't to be trusted on issues important to the religious right.
The adviser, Iowa pro-life activist Kim Lehman, made the comments to the Christian news network AgapePress. "Some candidates used to be pro-choice," Lehman told Agape, "and I have a hard time trusting people that at one time were pro-choice, and who, in the political process, have become pro-life."
Though Lehman didn't name Romney, the Massachusetts governor is the only candidate in the race to whom that description applies; Lehman's comments leave little doubt that Brownback's game plan will be to aggressively capitalize on Romney's past moderation.
Meanwhile, Brownback is set to announce his Presidential bid on January 20.
Great Moments In Fox News Dept. Whoops! Republican talk-show host Sean Hannity has accidentally acknowledged the legitimacy of gay marriage. In a Fox segment Friday night on the war between Rosie O'Donnell and Donald Trump, Hannity proclaimed without sarcasm: "Well now their colleagues, their spouses, their children, they're all jumping into the ring." By using the word "spouses" in the plural, isn't he saying that the openly gay O'Donnell has a spouse? This would be a big shift from his own stated definition of marriage — "it's a legal bond between a man and a woman" — which would suggest that Hannity shouldn't believe that it's even possible for gays to have "spouses." Maybe he's changed his mind. To watch the video, click here.
There's over a year to go until the Nevada caucus, so these numbers don't mean a heck of a lot -- but still, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani both have sizeable leads over their rivals in the state, a new American Research Group poll finds. Hillary enjoys the much more substantial lead, checking in at 37 percent, a 24 point lead over her nearest rival, Barack Obama, who lodges 13 percent. Meanwhile, Giuliani's lead is far slimmer; the poll finds he has the support of 31 percent, a six point lead over John McCain, who checks in at 25 percent. The Nevada caucus is tentatively set for January 19, 2008. More numbers here.
Will that Giuliani campaign memo leaked last week have the inadvertent effect of dissuading Florida Governor Charlie Crist from backing John McCain's Presidential bid? That's what some McCain advisers fear, according to Robert Novak's latest column in the Chicago Sun-Times.
Novak reports that some McCain advisers are worried about a disparaging comment that McCain strategist John Weaver made about Giuliani's consulting company after the memo leaked. "I thought it was a security company," Weaver cracked. According to Novak, McCain advisers fear that this comment could lead Crist to conclude that the McCain camp was behind the leak.
Such a conclusion about the McCain camp's involvement could cause Crist to cool to McCain, because Crist was embarrassed by the whole leak affair after it emerged that the memo was originally lost during a Giuliani campaign swing with Crist. Or so runs the scenario Novak's McCain sources are envisioning, at any rate.
Rep. Charles Rangel -- a longtime ally of Hillary Clinton who pushed her to run for Senate in 2000 -- now appears to be quietly encouraging the candidacy of her chief potential rival, Barack Obama. In an interview with today's New York Times, Rangel said: “I told him if he didn’t run, he’d regret it, and that he’s a young man and he ought to test the waters.” The paper asks whether this shows that Rangel's loyalties are "mixed" between longtime New York ally Clinton and fellow African American Obama.
But Rangel downplayed any such talk, pointing out that he's also discussed the Presidency with Wesley Clark and that it was way to early to discuss any endorsement. Rangel did appear to suggest, however, that he'd stick with Clinton. Rangel tells the paper he told Obama “that as dean of the New York delegation, I had obligations, and he would have to understand that.”
