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Poll Of Troops: Minority Supports "Surge"

Curious about what members of the military actually think about President Bush, the Iraq war, and the question of whether there should be a "surge" in troops? Then check this out: The latest annual Military Times poll of members of the military has just come out, and guess what it finds? For the first time, more respondents disapprove of Bush's handling of the Iraq war than approve of it. It also finds that a minority -- all of 38% -- think there should be more troops in Iraq than are already there. And only half think success in Iraq is likely -- down from 83 percent two years ago. More after the jump.

The Military Times poll finds that only 35 percent of respondents approve of Bush's handling of the war -- down from 63 percent two years ago -- while 42% disapprove of it.

From the Army Times' article today on the poll:

The American military -- once a staunch supporter of President Bush and the Iraq war -- has grown increasingly pessimistic about chances for victory, according to the 2006 Military Times Poll.

For the first time, more troops disapprove of the president's handling of the war than approve of it. Barely one-third of service members approve of the way the president is handling the war.

When the military was feeling most optimistic about the war -- in 2004 -- 83 percent of poll respondents thought success in Iraq was likely. This year, that number has shrunk to 50 percent.

Only 35 percent of the military members polled this year said they approve of the way President Bush is handling the war, while 42 percent said they disapproved. The president's approval rating among the military is only slightly higher than for the population as a whole. In 2004, when his popularity peaked, 63 percent of the military approved of Bush's handling of the war. While approval of the president's war leadership has slumped, his overall approval remains high among the military.

Just as telling, in this year's poll only 41 percent of the military said the U.S. should have gone to war in Iraq in the first place, down from 65 percent in 2003.

There's more. As you may have heard, Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently held a photo-op sit-down with some of the troops in Iraq. By sheer coincidence, all of the assembled troops said they support an increase in troops to Iraq.

That's strikingly at odds with what this poll found, though. The poll asks the following question:

We currently have 145,000 troops in Iraq and Kuwait. How many troops do you think we should have there?

Here are the answers:

Zero: 13%

0-50,000: 7%

50,000-144,000: 6%

145,000: 13%

146,000-200,000: 22%

200,000+: 16%

No opinion/Don't know: 23%

These are worth a quick look. While it doesn't show broad support for a withdrawal, it strikingly shows that 13 percent favor a complete pull out. More tellingly, only 38% think there should be more troops there than there are now. In other words, only 38% favor a "surge."

By contrast, a total of 39 percent think there should be the same number or less than there are now.

This poll isn't a perfect gauge of how the troops in Iraq feel, but it's pretty good: A full 50 percent of respondents have done at least one tour in Iraq. Even better, the poll questioned 6,000 randomly selected active-duty members.

It'll be interesting to see what the wingnuts -- not to mention the commentators at the big news orgs -- have to say about this one.

You can see the full poll here.


8 Comments

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What's really interesting is that the numbers are so bad for Bush among a group of people who have it drilled into them that they can go to prison if they criticise their leaders. Even when offered anonymity by the pollsters, I'd guess the culture makes getting accurate numbers difficult.

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Damnit Greg, every time you post a fact instead of trusting your gut, or maybe Joe Lieberman's gut, Stephen Colbert cries. Think of Stephen Colbert, Greg!

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Sure the troops want out of there and sure they don't like Bush and sure they aren't sure if we are going to win, but Kerry may have had to eat breakfast with only a few others!

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If they weren't a captive audience Bush's approval rating might be

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Too bad it came out at the beginning of a 3-day holiday, when Saddam's execution probably has used up all the oxygen.

I wonder if any of those polled came from the group that was supposed to come home about a month ago, before Bush starting talking about the "surge."

There's a line I saw from an anonymous GI about a year ago that I think will take its place alongside "we had to destroy the village to save it."

"We're just driving around, waiting to be blown up."

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This is a very important story. One point of at least a little importance. This was not a poll of randomly selected active duty members. It was a mail poll of active duty subscribers to the Military Times newspapers.

The poll would most likely tend to over-represent career military.

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What's peculiar about Greg's analysis is that the poll numbers that he cites support a contrary view: Only 26% of respondents think that troop levels should decline and a larger group, 38%, think that they should be increased.

While the decline in support for the occupation by our troops may be encouraging, the gross numbers show that there's still a strong reservoir of support for Bush's war among our front-line troops.

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In the most significant movement of dissident soldiers since Vietnam, nearly 1,000 active-duty officers and enlisted personnel have petitioned the government to withdraw from Iraq. 

As a patriotic American proud to serve the nation in uniform, I respectfully urge my political leaders in Congress to support the prompt withdrawal of all American military forces and bases from Iraq. Staying in Iraq will not work and is not worth the price. It is time for U.S. troops to come home.

Full story, About Face: Soldiers call for Iraq Withdrawal, appears here.

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