Edwards has a very good chance to come out on top

Netroots Primary
Well Edwards went from 8% in the spring of 2006, to 15% in August, to 28% now. It's clear he'll be one of two or three leading netroots candidates. Obviously people like the idea that he's the one candidate with a serious, progressive, forward looking vision with specifics and electability to boot.

Money Primary
Edwards will get money (and staff) from two of the biggest core groups in our Party: Labor and Trial Lawyers. Couple that with netroots money and Edwards will pretty easily match HRC.

Southern Primary
Ended with withdrawal of Warner

Iowa
Edwards has his grassroots organization intact in Iowa (and they’re having great success with Chet Culver’s gubernatorial campaign), leads the polls there now (he’s kept or expanded his 32% support from 2004), is working the state (10 visits since 2005), and is well liked by the Des Moines Register. Vilsack's a non-factor in his home state, and may be the fist to leave if his polls don't go up. This is Markos' first mistake. Vilsack won't win Iowa, he won't even come in second, and maybe not even third. Kos couldn't be more wrong, nobody cares if you're from a neighboring state, ask Gephardt or Bob Kerrey. Obama will compete in the eastern cities, but won't do much of anything away from the river. Kerry is dead man walking (he’s already lost 2/3 of his 2004 support). For what it’s worth all the major Iowa bloggers have Edwards in their top 3-4 Hot spots. Prediction: Edwards 40%, Hillary 25%, Obama 20%, Others 15%. Vilsack drops out before January 2008.

Nevada
So Edwards wins Iowa and takes momentum into Nevada. Caucus is all turnout, and the Democratic party in Nevada is one organization: Culinary Union 226 of Las Vegas, Unite-Here's power base, the strongest local union in the country, 60,000 strong. And Unite-Here are already 100% behind Edwards (that’ll be true of the Change To Win unions at least). Union households make up 25% of the electorate in Nevada, and will be a much larger portion of the Democratic caucus vote. Edwards has developed deep ties with union leaders and workers over the past two years; he’s been very active in "Hotel Workers Rising" movement. Edwards is also made friends through his support of Nevada’s successful raising the minimum wage proposal and today he announced David Bonior will be a campaign manager of any to-be-announced campaign. Edwards has just about locked down the unions. If you take a look at the percentage of Hispanics who are registered to vote, it's really low, and if you look at Hispanics who vote in primaries, it's extremely low -- Richardson bombs. Prediction: Edwards 50%, Hillary 20%, Richardson 15%, Obama 10%, Others 5%. Richardson drops out.

New Hampshire
This might be the place where Obama and Hillary do best, but NH did follow Iowa in 2004, and may jump on the Edwards-Iowa-Nevada bandwagon.

South Carolina
And then there's SC, the state Edwards already convincingly won in 2004! Edwards still has the local-boy-done-good vote (he was born in South Carolina), will compete with Clinton and Obama for African-American vote, and still will have the momentum. Prediction: Edwards 45%, Obama 30%, Hillary 15%, Others 10%10%.

C'mon. Are you saying that Obama and Edwards aren't playing to focus groups either? What legislation or amendments did Edwards push to combat poverty in the Senate. It's easy for Edwards to talk about being against Iraq and trade, but when he had a chance to prove it, he voted for the Iraq Resolution--which I don't find that offensive--and for some trade agreements. If anythine, Edwards is the one selling focus group and poll results. Clinton at least pushed and authored legislation to back up much of her positions, whether they are to be agreed with or not.

I have a few disagreements, but I agree that overall people are perhaps underestimating him. However, I seriously think that an Obama wave is developing that will give him the momentum and put everyone else underwater. Money and organization only count for so much.

Union support didn't do much for Gephardt, so you at least have to explain how Edwards is different. I think a lot of union voters in Dem primaries, when faced with several good candidates, just check the box that whoever they are going to vote for is good for unions (which most/all Dem candidates will be) and then often choose based on factors other than who their union endorsed (i.e. choosing Kerry based on nat'l security credentials or Edwards based on the resonation of his rhetoric in '04).

I seriously doubt anyone is going to compete with Obama for the black vote in the South, which is a large part of the Democratic electorate. He might even be able to recover from an initial stumble that would take other candidates out of the race.