As reported below, the Military Times has just released its annual poll of active duty troops, and its findings are striking. Among other things, it finds that only 38 percent think there should be more troops in Iraq than there already are. So here's the question. Last week, Defense Secretary Robert Gates held a sit-down with a dozen troops who all just happened to favor bringing more troops in Iraq. The opinions of this handful of troops earned extensive coverage from CNN, The New York Times, the Associated Press, and Reuters. And yet, as best as I can determine, none of these same news orgs today mentioned the Military Times poll, even though it came out yesterday. Why not? Now that we have poll of the actual attitudes of thousands of troops towards a "surge," when will the media cover it?

"Before the hanging was carried out in Baghdad, Mr. Bush went to sleep here at his ranch and was not roused when the news came."

-- The New York Times, reporting on Bush's reaction to the execution of Saddam Hussein, which took place at around 10 P.M. eastern time

"As much as the social conservatives might not like to hear it, there will be a time when your grandchildren say: 'What was the argument with gay marriage? Who cares?'"

-- Outgoing openly gay GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe, quoted in the Tuscon Citizen blasting the GOP for what he sees as its politically disastrous focus on issues like abortion, stem cell research and gay marriage

Curious about what members of the military actually think about President Bush, the Iraq war, and the question of whether there should be a "surge" in troops? Then check this out: The latest annual Military Times poll of members of the military has just come out, and guess what it finds? For the first time, more respondents disapprove of Bush's handling of the Iraq war than approve of it. It also finds that a minority -- all of 38% -- think there should be more troops in Iraq than are already there. And only half think success in Iraq is likely -- down from 83 percent two years ago. More after the jump.

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"When people say it's all going to be settled by March or April, who says? George Allen was the hottest brand going until he made a little speech that got on YouTube. Now he's gone."

Some updates on the candidates and their movements:

* John Edwards held a town meeting today in New Hampshire at a Porsmouth elementary school — and with more than 800 people showing up, about a quarter of them had to stand outside.

* Tom Vilsack's campaign has scheduled campaign appearances next week — but they're in his home state of Iowa. He'll be working hard to nail down his home state, as current polling shows him trailing.

* Hillary Clinton is on vacation with her husband in the small Caribbean country of Anguilla. She has said she'll make a decision on whether to run after New Year's Day.

* Mike Huckabee, commenting on when he might enter the race, said, "I'm not on anybody else's clock when it comes to making an announcement."

* Barack Obama is on vacation in Hawaii with his family, staying away from the press while he contemplates a final decision about his potential candidacy.

* Mitt Romney is also on vacation with his family, at a Utah ski retreat, making a final decision with his family.

* Newt Gingrich will go to Florida in February to be the keynote speaker for the annual Lincoln-Reagan Dinner for the Republican Party of Lee County (Fort Myers).

Recent suspicions over Mitt Romney's past moderation might be causing some of his conservative supporters to think about ditching him even before his campaign has begun, a new report says. According to Pat Robertson's CBN News, an Evangelical news organization that is very well connected with leading social conservatives, four conservative state representatives in Michigan who are members of Romney's state steering committee are now seriously thinking about abandoning their support for him. More after the jump.

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Barack Obama hasn't even announced his potential candidacy for President, but he's just scored an endorsement from a Congressman outside his home state — an unusual pickup so early in the game. As it happens, the Congressman comes from the place of Obama's birth: Hawaii. The Honolulu Advertiser reports that Hawaii Congressman Neil Abercrombie, an outspoken House liberal, took part in a Draft Obama rally held on the island in order to coincide with the Senator's ongoing vacation there.

Abercrombie was very blunt in his support of Obama: "I believe it's his destiny to run, and his destiny to win." Obama has said that he's using his stay in Hawaii to decide whether he's going to run for the White House.

"Saddam Hussein is a lucky man — in no time at all he can expect to have his reputation vastly improved ... If you doubt that scenario, consider what we are now witnessing with the death of former President Gerald R. Ford."

— Wingnut talk show host Michael Reagan, in his syndicated column, on why the hanging of Saddam will result in a post-execution improvement in his reputation. We have to wonder: Does Reagan harbor any bitterness over his father's narrow loss to Ford for the 1976 GOP nomination?

"Saddam Hussein is a lucky man — in no time at all he can expect to have his reputation vastly improved ... If you doubt that scenario, consider what we are now witnessing with the death of former President Gerald R. Ford."

— Michael Reagan, comparing Saddam Hussein's imminent death with the passing of the late President Gerald Ford. Does Reagan hold any bitterness over his father's narrow loss to Ford for the 1976 GOP nomination?

Yes, Rudy Giuliani can beat John McCain for the GOP nomination, a top GOP pollster claims. Frank Luntz, the Republican strategist whose polling helped create Newt Gingrich's "contract with America," has published an opinion piece in today's Daily News claiming that Rudy can beat McCain because GOP voters are looking for "the triumvirate of results, success and solutions." All of these, needless to say, are embodied by Rudy, according to Luntz. Key quote:

Though McCain may not sound like one or act like one, he's been a Beltway Republican, part of the Washington establishment for almost two decades. Giuliani can score considerable points by acknowledging McCain's willingness to buck the political system while subtly reminding Republicans of McCain's participation in that very system.

This leads to Giuliani's second great advantage: New York. While McCain is in Washington, a city of hearings and roll call votes, Giuliani is the embodiment of a city back on its feet...

My polling and focus groups make clear that Republican voters are not looking for the kind of "revolution" that swept their party into Congress in 1994. On the contrary, they are looking for what George W. Bush promised to be in 2000 -- a "reformer with results."

If Giuliani can present himself as that man, he can win the nomination.

Of course, there are two key words that don't appear in Luntz's piece -- "religious" and "conservative." Indeed, there's no mention at all of the socially conservative voters that dominate GOP primaries and hence constitute Rudy's chief hurdle. Which perhaps suggests that Luntz's argument isn't exactly deserving of serious study.

"Everything I said back then was right today.”

-- Dennis Kucinich, in an interview with the Boston Globe, on his early insistence that Dems aggressively confront George Bush over the Iraq war

John McCain's unceasing quest to prove that he's a "real" conservative hit a bit of a snag yesterday when a right-wing Congressman from his home state of Arizona revealed that he'd decided to snub McCain and throw his backing to a die-hard conservative rival in the 2008 GOP primary, Rep. Duncan Hunter of California.

Today's Arizona Republic reports that the Congressman, Trent Franks, handed his support to Hunter because he sees Hunter "an unequivocal social conservative and fiscal conservative." Franks, who is one of the most conservative members in the House, also described Hunter as "one of the true Reagan Revolutionaries in Congress," though he declined to directly criticize McCain.

Yesterday's news wasn't all bad for McCain. The Republic also reports that McCain has picked up the support of two other Arizona pols, Senator Jon Kyl and Rep. Jeff Flake.

Senator Tim Johnson, who turned 60 yesterday, remains in intensive care but is "continuing to improve" two weeks after emergency brain surgery, the Associated Press reports. Johnson's chief doctor released a statement saying that his overall condition has improved and that he's being weaned off sedation while his brain heals. Meanwhile, a Johnson spokesperson says that he is responsive to directions from his wife and has not yet spoken. Johnson won't be present next week during the opening days of Congress.

Is it really possible that President Bush is seen as a villain by more Americans than Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad combined? And is it possible that he could simultaneously be seen as the country's biggest hero? In yet another sign of the country's polarization, President Bush turns out to be the biggest hero — and villain — in America, a new Associated Press poll finds. The poll asked respondents who they saw as the biggest hero and villain of the year. Bush topped both lists, with 13 percent naming him as the biggest hero ... but almost twice as many, 25 percent, naming him as the biggest villain. The kicker: Bin Laden was a distant second to Bush in the villain category, with only eight percent, followed by Hussein with six and Ahmadinejad with five.

As reported below, Mitt Romney suffered a final defeat on his quest to end gay marriage in Massachusetts yesterday when a court ruled against his lawsuit to force the state legislature to agree to a referendum banning gay marriage in the state. But now it looks as if Romney still hasn't given up: He's taking one last, desperate shot at getting his way. More after the jump.

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According to the New York Daily News's D.C. scribe Thomas DeFrank, Gerald Ford repeatedly confided to the reporter that he was excited at the prospect of Hillary Clinton running for President in 2008, said she'd make "a darn good candidate," and was thrilled at the possibility of a matchup between her and Rudy Giuliani.

In today's News, DeFrank has published a long remembrance of his many conversations with Ford, at one point writing:

Ever the political junkie, the guy who used to travel 250 days a year as House minority leader said he couldn't wait for a rematch between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani in 2008. For years he'd been telling me Hillary would run and make "a darn good candidate." As for Rudy: "Giuliani is an electrifying guy and he can be tough. That would be a great contest between Hillary and Rudy."

Ford's wish just may come true, but of course he won't be around to witness it. Via Just Hillary.

"We need to ask Americans to be willing to be patriotic about something beyond war."

-- John Edwards, in his speech today announcing his Presidential candidacy

Judging by an on-screen caption this morning on MSNBC, the biggest story to come out of John Edwards's campaign announcement is that ... he's fighting poverty even though he's rich. Yep, the caption actually reads: "Multi-millionaire candidate to focus on poverty in America."

John Edwards just finished up the press conference in New Orleans where he announced his candidacy for President. Notably, he used the word "escalate" to describe proposals for an increase in troops to Iraq -- the word favored by war critics who argue that the word "surge" is a complete misnomer:

I want to be absolutely clear about this -- it is a mistake for America to escalate its role in Iraq. It is a mistake to surge troops into Iraq. It sends exactly the wrong signal to the Iraqis and the rest of the world about what our intentions are there.

Edwards also spoke at length about his signature issue, poverty, and called for universal health care, saying we need it "desperately." We'll have video of his announcement in a bit. A full transcript of Edwards' remarks is after the jump.

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As reported below, John Edwards made his Presidential campaign official yesterday. His campaign web site is now live, and he's posted a video shot yesterday (view it below) featuring him standing in a New Orleans neighborhood ravaged by Katrina. Edwards says: "Tomorrow morning, from this place, I will announce that I'm a candidate for President of the United States." Edwards goes on to say that "we need to start leaving Iraq" and adds that the U.S. needs to establish "its moral authority in the world." View Edwards' speech here.

You knew this was coming, but still, it's now official: John Edwards is definitely running for President. Edwards' formal announcement was scheduled for tomorrow, but MSNBC has just reported that the Edwards campaign accidentally let the news slip on line today. It seems the Edwards camp inadvertently posted his new campaign web site a day early before quickly shutting it down. Edwards adviser Jennifer Palmieri confirmed that her boss is officially in the race, telling MSNBC: “Better a day earlier than a day late." The official announcement is still set for tomorrow in a Katrina-ravaged neighborhood in New Orleans, a setting designed to highlight Edwards' signature issue of poverty.

"Mr. President, this is your war."

-- Joe Biden, speaking to President Bush in a private meeting (as reported by the Associated Press).

The news of Gerald Ford's death is less than a day old, but one politician has already stepped forward to exploit Ford's death to advance his own issues. And the politican in question is a Republican. The Wisconsin political site WisPolitics has posted a press release from Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, a leading House GOP firebrand, arguing that the lesson in Ford's death is that Congress needs to cut spending, an issue that has long been close to Sensenbrenner's heart. Key quote from the release:

Yet his service in Congress taught him that overspending would poison our economy and cost many Americans their jobs. His numerous vetoes of bills passed by Congress which spent too much money is a lesson my colleagues and I should remember.

One of the pillars of Governor Mitt Romney's impending campaign for President has been his steady fight against gay marriage in his state. But now it looks like he's officially lost the fight. More after the jump.

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Dems across South Carolina are urging Senator Barack Obama to run for President, according to political reporter Lee Bandy of The State newspaper. Part of the reason, Dems tell the paper, is South Carolina's unique role in the nominating process: It's the first primary state where minorities make up a significant portion of the electorate. And Obama is doing very well in that community: According to a recent poll cited by The State, Obama is seen favorably by 91 percent of South Carolina's black community; Hillary Clinton, by contrast, is seen favorably by 69 percent of it. As local Dem Inez Tenenbaum tells the paper: "South Carolina could send him on his way."

Get this: In another sign that Rudy Giuliani is hoping to ride 9/11 into the White House, "America's Mayor" is now taking active steps to recruit the relatives of 9/11 victims to back his Presidential campaign. Today's New York Post reports that Giuliani's supporters have "started discussions with relatives of 9/11 victims about backing him if he runs for president in 2008." The paper also reports that Giuliani's exploratory committee has sent an invitation for a campaign fundraiser to Marian Fontana, whose firefighter husband died at the World Trade Center on 9/11. Rudy's been careful to stay in touch with some 9/11 relatives, the paper reports, adding that it's unclear as of yet what role they'll play in his campaign.

Barely 12 hours have passed since news broke of Gerald Ford's death, but Gallup is already zeroing in on how the man held up in polls. Gallup took a look at a bunch of surveys and concluded that his average Presidential approval rating was one of the lowest of any President since World War II. Gallup found that his average rating was 47.2% -- lower than Richard Nixon's average of 49%, Ronald Reagan's of 52.8%, and George W. Bush's of 55.3%.

You can find more numbers on Ford from Gallup here. A rundown of obituaries is here.

Here's a rundown of obituaries on Gerald Ford, the 38th President, who has died at the age of 93:

The New York Times:

When Mr. Ford took the oath of president in 1974, the economy was in disarray, an energy shortage was worsening, allies were wondering how steadfast the United States might be as a partner and Mr. Nixon, having resigned rather than face impeachment for taking part in the Watergate cover-up, was flying to seclusion in San Clemente, Calif.

There was a collective sense of relief as Mr. Ford, in the most memorable line of his most noteworthy speech, declared that day, “Our long national nightmare is over.”

The Washington Post:

On Sept. 8, [1974], Ford granted Nixon a full pardon for all federal crimes he had "committed or may have committed" when he was in the White House.

The response was a tidal wave of criticism. Every opinion poll showed a large majority of Americans opposed the pardon. It was denounced in Congress, including by members of Ford's own party. Republican officials gloomily and accurately forecast that it had reintroduced the Watergate issue into the 1974 elections, which proved to be a Democratic landslide.

Los Angeles Times:

Ford's presidency may have been lackluster by many standards, yet his legacy was generally considered positive.

"Having inherited a nation preoccupied with Vietnam and Watergate — and in many respects both frustrated and disillusioned — Ford succeeded in refocusing the nation's energies on the future," said presidential scholar Roger B. Porter.

It is how the president himself had hoped to be judged — as a healer.

"I hope I am remembered as a president who took over in very tough, difficult times — the time of Watergate and Vietnam, when there was an awful lot of distrust for government in our country," Ford once said. "In two years I was able to heal most of the wounds — of the scandals and war — and restore public confidence in the presidency."

Here's more from CNN and the Associated Press. Here are statements from President Bush and Dick Cheney, who was Ford's chief of staff. And here's a timeline of Ford's life and Presidency.

Rising expectations of President Bush on Iraq? Bear with us.

It appears that a new political dynamic may have taken hold as President Bush prepares to reveal his plans for Iraq. Despite White House efforts to diminish public expectations by depicting the future of the war as a long, hard slog, Bush has inadvertenly inflated the public's expecations of him by dwelling so long on choosing his plan for what he calls the "new way forward."

That, at any rate, is the viewpoint of several political strategists who were interviewed by the Associated Press:

By the time he announces his Iraq plan in January, roughly two months will have passed since a humbling election for Republicans brought a promise of a "new way forward."

There might as well be a drum roll.

"He has built up expectations," said David Gergen, a former White House adviser in the administrations of presidents Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Clinton. "People are saying, 'OK, if you've spent all this time and effort on it, you better have a pretty darn good plan.'"

The White House has already been burned once by this dynamic. First word leaked that Bush was planning to offer his "new way forward" in a speech before Christmas. After the White House then declared the speech would in fact be coming some time in the new year, the administration had to fend off questions about the delay.

Now, thanks to that delay, the dynamic is, if anything, worse. The longer the White House puts off the unveiling of the new plan, and the more it promises that the new approach will be supported by a thorough and painstaking review of the situation, the more the public will expect from -- and possibly be let down by -- Bush's final decision.

Bush is scheduled to hold a meeting on Thursday at his Crawford ranch with Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice, Stephen Hadley and others to decide what's next. No decision is expected from that meeting, however.

So now another Dem Presidential hopeful has stepped forward to oppose the idea of a troop "surge" in Iraq: Joe Biden.

The Associated Press reports that Biden spoke out strongly against an increase today in a conversation with reporters. "I just think it's the absolute wrong strategy," he said, adding that Republicans who don't oppose a troop "surge" do so at their party's political peril: "I think we'll only have to accept responsibility for the war if we remain silent."

Though Biden is often seen as inhabiting the hawkish end of the Dem spectrum, he's now placed himself firmly in the ranks of those against a surge, putting him in the company of Iowa governor Tom Vilsack, Senator Hillary Clinton, and several other Dem Presidential hopefuls who oppose an increase in troops to Iraq.

As became very clear today, Biden intends to use his opposition to an increase in troops to elevate his political profile as incoming head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in preparation for his Presidential race. For instance, he says he'll hold a series of hearings on Iraq beginning January 9th, and claims that Secretary of State Condoleezza has agreed to testify. According to Biden, the express purpose of the hearings is to build "bipartisan" support against a troop surge.

Of course, it's worth recalling that Biden hasn't always been so uncompromising in his opposition to Bush's war policies. He was less than prescient back in 2002, when he voted for the war and even told Larry King the following: "I think the President's got it just right." Biden even contended that Bush was "playing this out the way he should play it out," to avoid becoming a lone occupying power in Iraq.

Now that Evan Bayh has decided not to run for President, will he also leave the Senate? Human Events reports that Bayh is considering a run in 2008 for his old job as Governor of Indiana — which he reportedly enjoyed more than being a Senator — against incumbent Republican Mitch Daniels. Daniels has seen his popularity fall due to budget cuts and other factors, and has been coy on whether or not he'll even run again. Should Bayh opt to run for Governor, his candidacy would naturally take him out of the running for the Vice Presidential slot.

What are they going to announce and when are they going to announce it? There are so many potential Presidential candidates out there that it's easy to lose track of who's announcing an official candidacy and when. Here's a quickie rundown on the candidates and their announcement timetables.

* Hillary Clinton confirmed to reporters that she will make her announcement after New Year's Day.

* John McCain is expected to officially roll out his campaign in early February — but he already has an exploratory committee site up and has made extensive staff hires for his campaign.

* Barack Obama is on vacation in Hawaii, where he's reportedly making up his mind, and he's expected to unveil his 2008 plans shortly after New Year's Day. Nonetheless, though Bob Novak reports that the answer is already a firm "Yes."

* Mitt Romney will announce his official candidacy as soon as the week of January 8th, according to an adviser. He will set up his exploratory committee just after New Year's Day.

* Rudy Giuliani already has an exploratory committee site up. Though he lags behind his rivals in organization and is staying mum on the timeline of his announcement, he is giving a big speech in New Hampshire next month and is reaching out to Iowa caucus activists.

* John Edwards will reportedly kick off his campaign by the end of the year, starting his announcement tour in New Orleans's Ninth Ward, to highlight the problems of poverty in America.

* Sam Brownback says he will announce next month whether he will run — but already has an exploratory committee and a "Sam Brownback for President" web site.

* Newt Gingrich says he might not announce his plans until as late as Labor Day 2007, the idea being that he'll have plenty of time this way to see whether one of the frontrunners has it sewn up by then.

* Mike Huckabee says he will announce his plans after leaving office as Governor of Arkansas in Janurary.

* Joe Biden is telling anyone who will listen that he's already stated -- frequently, definitely, unequivocally -- that he's officially running for President.

* Tom Vilsack, meanwhile, is the only other candidate to officially announce; he held a campaign kick-off ceremony earlier this month in Iowa.

* Chris Dodd is expected to announce his 2008 plans next month.

"This controversy has made people dust off their Constitution and actually read it."

-- Muslim Rep. Keith Ellison, quoted by the Detroit Free Press on the dust-up over his decision to be sworn into office on the Koran

Joe Lieberman likes to hold press conferences to denounce the makers of violent video games, but he doesn't have a problem taking campaign donations from them, today's Hartford Courant reports. The paper cites an analysis done by the Center for Responsive Politics which found that he'd taken $73,000 from a variety of video-game industry interests in the past two years.

For instance, Lieberman took $2,000 from Linda McMahon, who's the chief executive officer of the Stamford-based WWE Entertainment, which is well known for its less-than-gentle games and TV shows. Here's the disclaimer about violence offered on WEE's web site, according to the Courant:

WWE warns parents on its website that, during its more violent shows, "Characters may `hit' opponents with objects, such as metal chairs, sledgehammers, shiny new trashcans, baking sheets, metal stop signs or kendo sticks," or may slam opponents "through folding tables, announcer booths, ring barricades and turnbuckles."

In addition, WWE says, "Male characters may body-slam female opponents in the ring, and vice-versa."

According to the paper, Lieberman defended accepting the donations by saying that they don't "affect my behavior." Other Lieberman backers defend them by saying that much of them came from "venues who agree with his ideology or other policies, or companies known for family-friendly shows," the Courant reports. More here.

A new poll out of New Hampshire shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a dead heat, with Clinton at 22% and Obama at 21%. The poll, which was done by by Research 2000 and is scheduled to be published today in the Concord Monitor, finds John Edwards in third place with 16%, and Al Gore in forth at 10%.

On the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are similarly tied, with Giuliani at 26% and McCain at 25%, with Mitt Romney third at 10%.

Interesting footnote: While 18% of GOP voters in New Hampshire voters are undecided, only 8% of New Hampshire Dems haven't made up their minds. We'll link to the full poll when it's online.

Update: The Monitor's article can be found here.