John Edwards will officially announce his Presidential run later this month in a New Orleans neighborhood devastated by Hurricane Katrina, according to two Democratic officials who spoke to the Associated Press. "The Lower Ninth Ward provides a stark backdrop to highlight his signature issue — that economic inequality means that the country is divided into `two Americas,'" the AP says.

"Since the Democrats’ loss to President Bush, Edwards has worked to build support for a repeat presidential bid," the AP continues. "He has a retooled agenda that is more openly progressive and has spent time building relationships with labor leaders and traveling overseas to build his foreign policy credentials beyond his one term in the Senate."

Edwards is also reportedly planning an announcement tour between Christmas and New Year's Day that will take him from New Orleans through the four key nominating states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Just in case you haven't had your fill of talk about Barack Obama's big visit to New Hampshire, the good people at RunObama.com have produced a video comprised of footage of his trip:

Officials in Denver are growing pessimistic about their chances of landing the 2008 Democratic National Convention, with some top Dems thinking that New York is better equipped to put on a glitch-free convention, the Associated Press is reporting. "Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar said this week that in private conversations Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean had expressed legitimate concerns about whether Denver can raise the necessary $55 million and put on a seamless convention," the AP says.

If the Dems do pick New York over Denver, the decision would without doubt disappoint Dems who see the west -- where the party made gains in the 2006 midterm election -- as a region with the growth potential to help Dems capture the Presidency in 2008. On the other hand, the argument in favor of New York is that it's a world city with a proven track record in handling the immensely complex logistical challenge of hosting conventions. The last two Dem Presidents -- Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 -- launched successful campaigns from New York.

A decision is expected by the end of the year.

Indiana Senator Evan Bayh has decided not to run for President, this morning's Indianapolis Star is reporting. Bayh released a statement to the Star saying: "After talking with family and friends over the past several days, I have decided that this is not the year for me to run for president and I will not be a candidate for the presidency in 2008." Bayh's full statement after the jump.

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In his never-ending quest to outdo John McCain for the designation of uber-hawk in the GOP primary, Newt Gingrich gave a speech last night in New Hampshire reiterating his frequent call for limits to be placed on freedom of speech in order to combat terrorism. According to today's New Hampshire Union Leader, Gingrich referred to the ejection last month of six Muslim scholars from a plane as follows: "Those six people should have been arrested and prosecuted for pretending to be terrorists. And the crew of the U.S. airplane should have been invited to the White House and congratulated for being correct in the protection of citizens." Discuss.

An update from Senator Johnson's doctor:

Calling his progress "encouraging," Sen. Tim Johnson's neurosurgeon said the South Dakota Democrat "is now stabilized and continues to show signs of responsiveness to the medical staff and the family."

In a statement released by the senator's office, Dr. Anthony Caputy, chairman of the Department of Neurosurgery at George Washington University Hospital, cautioned that Johnson is not totally in the clear. Brains of patients suffering "intracranial hemorrhages," like Johnson, often swell after an operation.

"Much like a bruise, it takes time to heal," Dr. Caputy said.

Dr. Vivek Deshmukh added that CT scans show no further bleeding and normal pressure on Johnson's brain.

More from the Johnson family here.

With Mitt Romney's support slipping among conservatives upset with his less-than-reliable social conservatism, another candidate appears to be taking advantage of the resulting vacuum on the right: Sam Brownback. The Kansas Senator has just earned two glowing profiles in conservative mags, both focussed on the fact that he recently spent a night in jail to highlight his "compassionate conservatism." Notably, one of the articles was written by none other than the founder of that phrase, Marvin Olasky (who spent the night in jail with Brownback). The second article, by Chuck Colson (who also knows a thing or two about prison), is here.

The latest on Senator Johnson:

Okay, here's a quick update on the planned movements of Hillary Clinton and a few other Presidential hopefuls:

* Hillary will be on the morning shows next week promoting the new release of her book, "It Takes a Village." She's doing NBC's The Today Show on Monday and The View on Wednesday.

* Dem Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack will appear on The Daily Show on Monday night.

* GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter of California is headed to Iowa tomorrow for a pheasant hunt for backers of his political action committee, which is called "Peace Through Strength." We wonder what the pheasants would think of that slogan.

* GOP Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will hold a gala $500 per person Christmas fundraiser in Arkansas this weekend for his Hope for America PAC. The event is expected to be an early indicator of whether Huckabee can raise the funds needed to compete in a national election.

* Al Gore (okay, he has "no plans" to run, but still) is scheduled to have a live conference call with thousands of MoveOn.org members gathered at nearly 2,000 screenings of Gore's movie on Saturday night.

* And Dems Bill Richardson and Joe Biden are heading to New Hampshire this weekend.

As you know, Mitt Romney has been trying to cast himself as the Ronald Reagan of this Presidential race. But now his immitation of the Gipper has taken a new turn: Romney's pointing to Reagan's inconsistencies to justify his own dramatic change of position on abortion.

Romney -- who's under fire from conservatives who see him as an unreliable ally -- made the comments in an interview with National Review that was highlighted in today's Boston Globe:

Governor Mitt Romney cited the change of heart by Ronald Reagan and a prominent former member of Congress in explaining his decision to oppose aborton rights to a National Review Online interviewer.

"I’m committed to promoting the culture of life. Like Ronald Reagan, and Henry Hyde, and others who became pro-life, I had this issue wrong in the past,'' Romney told NRO...

Romney was seen as a supporter of aborton rights in Massachusetts until he began readying for a run for president.

Romney's inconsistencies on social issues are the talk of his home state. The Globe notes: "Past stories on his positions have been among the most emailed recently among Boston.com readers." It doesn't seem like Romney's efforts to quell the furor are working.

"You always have a flavor-of-the-month candidate — at one point it was Governor Warner of Virginia, now it’s what’s-his-name, Obama — but that’s not going to hold up to a campaign by Senator Clinton."

-- former Republican Senator Alfonse D'Amato, quoted in The New York Times while explaining why he thinks Republicans shouldn't underestimate Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the White House

Barack Obama made the rounds of the Chicago editorial boards yesterday, and in his meeting with the Sun Times edit heads, he revealed a reason that may give him pause about running for President: He and is family are concerned about his safety. "Being shot, obviously, that is the least-attractive option," Obama told the paper. "But even just having a security apparatus around you; one of the things that I have been very proud over the last several years, is, for all the hoopla, I am not an entourage guy."

Meanwhile, Obama's family is worried that his race could place him in danger should he run. According to the paper, Obama's half sister gave an interview to Elle magazine in which she said: "Not to be offensive, there are crazy people in America as well, with crazy ideas. And at the end of the day, what matters is that he's a black man. The history of America is quite violent."

Barack Obama said that he would be a "viable candidate" in an interview with the Chicago Tribune editorial board yesterday, adding: "I wouldn't run if I didn't think I could win." Obama also asserted that he didn't want to be cast as the "un-Hillary," and added that he could raise the money for a Presidential campaign: "I don't want it to sound like raising $50 million to $60 million is easy. It's hard, but I think it's something that we could do."

"Do I have something that is sufficiently unique to offer to the country that it is worth putting my family through a presidential campaign?" Obama continued. "Politically, I think I would be a viable candidate. So that's a threshold question and I wouldn't run if I didn't think I could win." Obama promised a decision in January. Full interview here.

Update: Here's some video of the Tribune's Jim Warren on Hardball last night discussing the meeting with Obama. Among other things, Warren commented on Obama's confidence about being able to raise the money for a White House run, adding that the Senator said he saw a big spike in donations after his gag appearance on Monday Night Football.

So here's a handy guide for you on the picks the Presidential candidates have made to do their ads for them -- obviously a crucial task in modern campaigns. The trade publication Advertising Age has compiled a list of confirmed and likely consultants to head the advertising teams of the burdgeoning '08 contenders, both Democratic and Republican. The most interesting hire thus far? Barack Obama's acqusition of David Axelrod of AKP Media & Message, Chicago. Though Mr. Axelrod worked on Obama's Senate campaign, he might have been expected to enlist with John Edwards, since he headed up the former Veep candidate's ad team in 2004 -- and Edwards is expected to be running again. Check out our full Election Central list of who's hiring whom after the jump.

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GOP Presidential hopefuls Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney are both trying to woo outgoing Maryland governor Robert Ehrlich for a role in their respective campaigns, Ehrlich has told the Associated Press. As the AP notes, though, Ehrlich declined to say exactly what role Giuliani and Romney had in mind for him. Which makes Election Central wonder whether perhaps the two potential Presidential campaigns perhaps were slightly more interested in inheriting Ehrlich's statewide campaign apparatus as the state's top Republican than they were in figuring out a role for Ehrlich himself.

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A reporter for The New York Observer blog The Politicker ran into Albert Gore III last night at a magazine party and asked him a few questions. Gore III said in no uncertain terms that his dad isn't running for President in 2008:

"The political environment right now is incredibly toxic," said Mr. Gore..."There's way too much money involved. It's not one person, one vote any more. It's really one dollar one vote or something equivalent to that. The more money you have the more power you have in politics, and the type of populism that my grandfather, I guess, conducted himself with, and the same with my father - I'm not sure there's as much room for that as there was. And, I don't know, I don't plan to go into politics for a lot of the same reasons - well, I don't know all of his reasons - but I know that he has no plans to run in 2008."

So, the reporter asked, he's definitely not running?

"Well, I guess I have to add his addendum. I think the way he always says it is, 'I don't see any circumstances under which I would run for president.'"

Sounded exactly like his old man, no question.

After extending an exclusive invite to Barack Obama to speak at a big gathering in New Hampshire, Granite State Dems are telling Hillary Clinton that it's her turn to come and impress them now. The Associated Press reports that New Hampshire Dems have invited Hillary to be the featured speaker at their signature annuan event, which is known as the "100 club" fundraiser.

"The trip would be Clinton's first to the early presidential primary state in more than 10 years," the AP claims. "Her last visit was in October 1996 when the then-first lady campaigned for Democratic candidates, including her husband's re-election bid." She hasn't yet accepted the invite, and no date's been set yet.

As we promised below, the McCain campaign has just rolled out its list of eight heavy-hitting fundraisers on the campaign's finance committee. Here they are:

* Donald Bren, chairman of The Irvine Company in Southern California

* Donald R. Diamond, chairman of Diamond Ventures, Inc., a real estate investment firm

* Lewis Eisenberg, former partner at Goldman Sachs, co-founder of Granite Capital International Group, and former finance chair of the Republican National Committee

* James B. Lee, Jr., vice chairman of JP Morgan Chase

* Thomas G. Loeffler, founder and senior partner of The Loeffler Group and a former aide to President Gerald Ford

* John A. Moran, retired chairman of The Dyson-Kissner-Moran Corporation and longtime GOP fundraiser who was finance chair to the Bob Dole Presidential campaign

* A. Jerrold Perenchio, chairman and chief executive officer and controlling shareholder of Univision Communications Inc. and a top GOP donor

* John A. Thain, chief executive officer of the New York Stock Exchange Group, Inc.

Tony Snow must have felt a serious need to make up with the White House Press Corps after calling David Gregory "partisan" last week for quoting from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group report. Upon getting a question from Gregory on training of Iraqi troops versus direct policing by U.S. forces, Gregory prefaced his answer by first apologizing to Gregory: "I've thought a lot about that, and i was wrong," Snow said. "So, I want to apologize and tell you I'm sorry for it." Will the right-wing media that championed Snow in the fight follow suit? To watch the apology, click here.

Harry Reid shares the latest on the condition of Tim Johnson, who's recovering from emergency brain surgery:

Reid, set to become the highest-ranking Senator on Jan. 4, said Johnson “looks really good” and is getting the “best care” at George Washington University Hospital, where he is recovering from emergency brain surgery. Reid, in a brief appearance with reporters, said he was “very impressed” with what he called a “superb unit” at GWU...

Reid spent much of Wednesday night and Thursday morning at Johnson’s side. He was joined at the hospital by his predecessor, former Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D), also of South Dakota...

Reid said also issued a statement to his colleagues to keep them apprised of Johnson’s condition. “I know they are all interested in Sen. Johnson and his progress,” Reid said, adding that he told them Johnson is “doing well” and his wife Barbara is “doing fine.”

Under relentless fire from conservatives upset with him for some 10-year-old quotes in favor of gay rights, Mitt Romney has finally spoken out and clarified his position:

"Like the vast majority of Americans, I've opposed same-sex marriage, but I've also opposed unjust discrimination against anyone, for racial or religious reasons, or for sexual preference," Romney said in an interview with the National Review magazine published online Thursday.

Of course, this is unlikely to satisfy people on either side. It won't win him support from people who think opposition to gay marriage is unjust discrimination. And it won't make the right happy, either, because they don't think opposition to gay rights is unjust. But at least Romney's finally spoken out on the topic.

Just a couple quick updates on the movements of the, shall we say, less visible Dem Presidential hopefuls of the moment.

Senator Evan Bayh wrapped up a 48-hour tour of Florida yesterday, where he wooed Dem donors and activists. In what seemed like a wry reference to the fact that he and others are being completely eclipsed by the blinding wattage of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, Bayh told the South Florida Sun Sentinel that he wasn't concerned about them, saying: "They're pretty exciting, but that doesn't mean other people can't be exciting in different ways."

Meanwhile, the schedule for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson's upcoming trip to New Hampshire has been set, and the Governor will be quite busy with a planned 14 stops, including "a series of restaurant meet-and-greets and house parties," according to the New Hampshire Union Leader.

And now back to Hillary and Obama.

Okay, so that rollout of supporters of John McCain we promised you yesterday is starting. The campaign just announced that banking exec James Huffines will be McCain's Texas state chair, and we're told the campaign is about to announce its fundraising team. So if you care about what D.C. insiders like to call the "staff sweepstakes," then stay tuned to this here channel.

A Senator running for President can almost always count on the endorsement of his state's other Senator if they're from the same party — but not if he's Kansas Senator Sam Brownback. In his latest column Robert Novak reports on a coffee hour hosted by John McCain and other Senators partly designed to help McCain solidify establishment support. One of the McCain supporters in attendance? Brownback's fellow Kansan, Senator Pat Roberts. Key quote:

A second surprise at the coffee hour was the appearance at Lott's side of Roberts, even though his fellow Kansas senator, Sam Brownback, also is running for president. Roberts noted that in his Tuesday remarks, but asserted McCain is the right man in the right place at the right time.

Newt Gingrich is getting an early start on appealing to the Christian Right in preparation for a prospective Presidential bid — and he's doing it with the invaluable help of Fox News. The network is set to run a special hosted by Gingrich called "One Nation Under God — Religion and History in Washington, D.C." airing this weekend. Fox is running an ad touting the program, promoting a central place for religion in the country's politics, and featuring footage of Ronald Reagan. The ad goes on by asking, "why are classrooms, courtrooms and even our government fighting to force God out of public life?" The ad for Newt's show was awfully similar to a political ad for him. Really, the only thing missing from it was a disclaimer: "I'm Newt Gingrich, and I approved this message." To watch the ad, click here.

We now have our first poll out of Iowa — and it finds that Dem insiders in Iowa are the only ones hedging on Tom Vilsack. Iowa voters, are, too. The Des Moines Register reports that a new poll by Harstad Strategic Research finds Vilsack's support at a measly 9%, while the leader of the field is Edwards, with 36%. The two big political "rock stars" of the moment, interestingly, trailed way behind Edwards, with Hillary Clinton at 16%, and Barack Obama at 13% — but at least those two can say they're ahead of Vilsack. If these numbers hold up, pretty soon the donors will start closing their wallets and the insiders will suggest that he's not long for the race.

Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani hold leads over their rivals in their respective Presidential primary fields, with Clinton enjoying a sizeable advantage while Giuliani's is much more tenuous, according to poll numbers released today by ABC News and The Washington Post:

Among Democrats, Clinton leads the field with 39 percent, followed by Obama at 17 percent, Edwards at 12 percent, former vice president Al Gore at 10 percent and Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), the party's 2004 nominee, at 7 percent. No other Democrat received more than 2 percent...

Among Republicans, Giuliani is favored by 34 percent to McCain's 26 percent. Gingrich is at 12 percent, and outgoing Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney runs fourth at 5 percent.

The poll also found that despite the immense amount of media attention directed at Obama of late, his favorability ratings still lag behind his potential rivals in both parties. While Obama's rating is 44%, Edwards' is 49%, Clinton's checks in at 56%, and Giuliani's is highest at 67%.

Is Karl Rove retiring from politics? That's what Robert Novak says. In his latest column, he reports:

To little notice in the national media, Bush presidential adviser Karl Rove disclosed during a Washington speaking engagement last week that he will not return to his lifetime profession as a political consultant when he leaves the White House. Rove referred to himself as "a former political consultant" and said that he was leaving the game.

We're trying to get our hands on that speech. We'll keep you posted.

"They moved the goal post on us further down the field, and we couldn't score again and again."

— Rep. Henry Bonilla, R-TX, quoted in the San Antonio Express-News blaming his defeat on a court-ordered redrawing of his district that increased the population of Dem-leaning Hispanics from 51% to 61%.

Still more developments are imminent in what D.C. insiders like to call the "staff sweepstakes." A source in the John McCain camp tells Election Central that the announcement of several top fundraisers who will help lead McCain's campaign finance committee is coming in the next few days, possibly tommorow. The source adds that the campaign will announce the names of a bunch of state chairs around the country, too. Stay tuned.

Update: Ben Smith has some names of the soon-to-be-announced finance committee members: New York Stock Exchange chief John Thain, RNC fundraiser Lew Eisenberg, and JPMChase vice-chair Jimmy Lee.

The interesting dynamic here, as Smith notes, is that these Wall Streeters could be seen as inhabiting Rudy Giuliani's fundraising "turf," since he ran their city for eight years -- and probably shook them down for campaign funds himself more than once.

“I never understand that question, you have a President that’s in deep shit. He got us into the war, and all the reasons he gave have been proven invalid, and the whole electorate was so pissed off that they got rid of anyone they could have, and then they ask, ‘What is the Democrats’ solution?’”

— Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY), in response to questions from the New York Observer about what the Democrats should do about the war in Iraq

Although we're still more than a year away from the first primaries and caucuses, it's already time to get ready for the first TV ad of the Presidential race — a spot on behalf of Senator Barack Obama, who hasn't even declared he's running yet. Really. The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that the group Draft Obama will run a 60-second TV ad in the state in the coming days, though specific ad buys have not yet been confirmed. The ad features photos of Obama speaking to crowds and meeting voters, as audio plays of him delivering a standard progressive message to a cheering audience, closing with text of the group's Web address and a simple slogan, "Believe Again." Of course, if Obama's recent high-profile activity in New Hampshire is any indication, conscription may not exactly be required to get Obama in the race. View the ad here.

Rudy Giuliani is today's winner of what D.C. insiders like to call the "talent primary," hiring Mike DuHaime, the political director of the RNC, as his exploratory committee's executive director. As the Times notes, this is significant because Giuliani had for long surrounded himself with an insular circle of longtime advisers, leading many to doubt his seriousness in pursuit of the Presidency.

The Times adds: "The appointment of someone with such expertise in national politics, who has served in such a key role for the national Republican party during some of its strongest years, sends what appears to be an unmistakable message about how serious Mr. Giuliani is in his exploratory efforts."

Top Giuliani adviser Tony Carbonetti also told the paper that more key hires of senior staff members would be coming over the next few weeks. He added that Giuliani would start traveling to early primary states at the start of the new year.

There are nearly two years until Election Day 2008, but it's never too early to start speculating on the Presidential hopefuls' choices of running mates. And today's New York Sun has some interesting speculation on this score, reporting that John McCain appears to be considering as his Veep candidate GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota.

To bolster its case, the Sun recounts a convincing anecdote that to our knowledge wasn't widely reported, if at all, when it happened:

In the final week of the November election, Mr. McCain made several appearances with Mr. Pawlenty and his words of praise would suggest the Arizona senator sees in the governor a potential future vice president. "I know of no one who will make a greater contribution to the future of America than this great leader," Mr. McCain said at one stop. "This is the kind of leadership that I'd like to pass the torch to."

Well, since Pawlenty isn't going to be running for the Senate from Arizona any time soon, McCain's desire to "pass the torch" to Pawlenty can only mean one thing, right?

The Sun also notes that Pawlenty is an attractive choice because he survived reelection in a cycle where the GOP suffered severe losses in Minnesota. The paper concludes: "In the meantime, the Republicans committed to holding their 2008 convention in St. Paul. The early contours of the GOP's 2008 strategy suggest that it wants to win over the remaining blue parts of the Upper Midwest — Minnesota, Wisconsin, and maybe Michigan — the way it grabbed Iowa and expanded its hold on Missouri in 2004." Like we said, it's never to early to speculate.

With the first batch of post-election fundraising numbers set to be released in days, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. John McCain are each trouncing their rivals in their respective 2008 Presidential fields in cash-on-hand. The Washington Times took an advance look at the numbers and found that Clinton currently has $14 million in the bank, $4 million more than Sen. Evan Bayh, her closest cash competitor according to the paper. GOP numbers are much smaller as Sen. McCain leads the field with $1.1 million in the bank, and that number is expected to grow rapidly now that McCain has formed an exploratory committee and is aggressively hiring campaign staff.

Meanwhile, here's a really interesting tidbit from the Times that might help explain why Barack Obama is so adored by fellow Dems: He's exceptionally generous towards them with his campaign money. Though Obama had less than $1 million in the bank at the end of November, he ranks fourth amongst Democratic officeholders and first among Dem Presidential hopefuls in contributions to other Dems during the 2006 election cycle.

Update: Commenter Ohiomeister brings up a good point below. The Washington Times article seems to rank Obama #1 based soley on his personal contributions, which gives a misleading indication of donor generosity during the election cycle as many candidates donated large sums through their political action committees, donated directly to the DNC, DCCC and DSCC, or directly raised money for candidates across the country. As Ohiomeister notes, Sen. John Kerry's Keeping America's Promise PAC spent $7,331,884 on Democratic campaigns and campaign activities in 2006.

"Instead of a Christmas present to the nation and the people of Iraq in the form of a way to stop the insanity, the Decider has decided not to decide until January."

-- Jack Cafferty, talking on CNN about the President's decision to put off an announcement until after Christmas

As we've been documenting here at Election Central, Mitt Romney has been taking heavy fire from conservatives over some ten-year-old quotes supportive of gay rights. Now Romney has caved to the pressure and responded:

An adviser to Romney’s political action committee, Barbara Comstock, issued a statement Tuesday night saying that the governor defends traditional marriage and opposes "unjust discrimination against anyone" but doesn’t see a need for new or special legislation. Romney also agrees with President Bush’s decision to maintain the military’s "don’t ask, don’t tell policy" regarding homosexuals, she said.

The statement also described Romney as a "champion of traditional marriage."

Maybe someone can explain this. Gallup has a new poll out today, and at one point it asked the following question: "How much longer do you think the U.S. should have a significant number of troops in Iraq?" The answers were: 32% "less than six months"; 25% "six months to a year"; 25% "one to two years;" and only 14% "more than two years." So add that all up, and you get a total of 82% who think most of the troops should be out within two years. That's a striking number. Yet the Gallup Poll's commentary doesn't play up or even mention this total. Instead it notes that 74% endorse the Iraq Study Group's call for most troops to leave by early 2008. Am I missing something here? Isn't the 82% who seem to want out within two years an extraordinary number?

Despite his strong conservative credentials, Kansas Senator and Presidential hopeful Sam Brownback is assuring voters that the GOP is a “big-tent party,” just as long as you don’t support equal rights for gays and lesbians.  Speaking on a trip to Iowa, Brownback said, "It's a big-tent party and has been for a long period of time, particularly since Ronald Reagan talked about this being a party of different viewpoints. If somebody agrees with you 80 percent of the time, he's not your enemy." Brownback was responding to a question about the recent criticism of fellow candidate Mitt Romney’s comments that seemed to support gay marriage, and stated there was room in the party for those who favor gay rights, but that they wouldn’t win any friends with the base.  Asked if such a stance would spell disaster in the Republican primary, Brownback said, “"I don't know about that. I mean, where are you on taxes? The base of the party is issue-oriented and issue-driven, so those are significant things."

James Carville thinks Hillary can win Florida -- which of course would be a key state in her quest for the White House. Carville, who helped Hillary's husband win the White House back in one of the Ice Ages, made the prediction in a conversation with The American Prospect's Tom Schaller, who posted a quick report on the chat on the Prospect's weblog, TAPPED. Schaller wanted to know which southern state Carville thought Hillary could win, and Carville picked Florida as the most likely. Schaller also asked Carville which states won by President Bush in 2004 Hillary can "flip." His answer: Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa.

Amusing footnote: Schaller writes, "Carville stopped to ask me, `Did we win Kentucky in 1992?' I had to remind him that the Clinton-Gore ticket carried it narrowly in both 1992 and 1996."

Former U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez added another House seat to the Dem column last night, knocking off seven-term GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla in a runoff that decided control of Texas' final seat. Though the runoff was triggered by a general election in which neither candidate broke 50 percent, yesterday's contest wasn't even close: With 94 percent of precincts reporting, Rodriguez was leading Ciro 55%-45%, the Associated Press is reporting.

Dems were relishing the Rodriguez victory, because it represented another defeat for the machine created by Tom DeLay. The former Texas GOP Rep. redistricted Texas in 2003, leading to big gains for Republicans in the state, but parts of his redistricting were struck down by the Supreme Court last Spring. The Court's changes put many Latinos back into the 23rd District, helping Rodriguez win.

What's more, national Dem strategists were rewarded for bettting big on the race, spending more than $870,000 to offset Bonilla's big lead in fundraising. And in the campaign's final days, Bill Clinton paid a visit to the district. The victory brings the Dems' pickup in the House to a total of 30 seats.

Newly minted blogger Tom DeLay indulged in a bit of punditry today, predicting that the next President of the United States will be Hillary Rodham Clinton. Human Events mag reports that DeLay dropped his startling prediction in a meeting with fellow righty bloggers hosted by the mag and the Heritage Foundation. DeLay told his listeners that a shadowy alliance between liberal interest groups and the news media would help Hillary gain the White House, the mag reports. “Hillary will be the next president of the United States because they have built a coalition,” DeLay said.

DeLay -- by pure coincidence, no doubt -- raised the specter of this coalition during an event designed to drum up support for his new blog and activism website, an enterprise that seems to have been created to counter the pernicious alliance described above. "DeLay named Clinton loyalists Harold Ickes, Sidney Blumenthal, James Carville, Paul Begala and Joe Lockhart as the masterminds behind the left-wing coalition," the mag continues. "He said that these groups, more than anything else, contributed to the GOP’s fall this November." Of this group, DeLay said: “I have never seen a more powerful coalition."

DeLay had something to say about Barack Obama, too. According to the mag, he claimed Obama’s record in the Illinois Senate was on par with a “Marxist leftist.” It was unclear from his remarks who was to be feared more -- the "Marxist leftist" or the female leader of the most powerful coalition in U.S. history.

It turns out that Jeff Greenfield isn't the only one at CNN connecting Senator Barack Obama to Muslim extremists on the basis of his name. Jeanne Moos is doing it, too, and she has some handy split-screen effects: She's displayed Obama in split screens with not one, but two of America's leading Middle Eastern nemeses, Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. Check out our screen grabs below. Moos' spot is obviously meant to be tongue-in-cheek; she lets us hear the Senator's humorous take on it: "I mean, it would be one thing if my name was 'John Hussein Smith.' When you're already starting with 'Barack Obama...'" On the other hand, split screens with Osama and Hussein? It makes you wonder if the ad man for GOP Senator Saxby Chambliss — who unseated Max Cleland with ads linking him to the two — is working for CNN now. Watch the segment here. ( via The Plank.)

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Mitt Romney's travails continue over his ten-year-old comments in favor of gay rights. Now the conservative American Spectator magazine has weighed in on the affair, hammering Romney for his "inconsistencies."

As Election Central reported a couple of weeks back, a New England publication called Bay Windows recently reprinted some comments Romney made when he was running to unseat Senator Ted Kennedy in 1994. Romney said then that he would be better on gay rights than Kennedy was. Romney has been getting slammed by social conservatives for the comments, and now the American Spectator has chimed in, noting that the comments "will only be the beginning of a steady drip of past statements that conflict with Romney's new socially conservative image."

Interestingly, the Spectator notes that Romney's move to the right on gay marriage has left him caught in a kind of pincer movement between left wing activists and denizens of the religious right:

Ever since Romney emerged as a high-profile national spokesman against same-sex marriage, disgruntled Boston-area activists in the gay community and the religious right alike have been trying to shed light on the Bay State governor's record to expose him as a hypocrite...

Some of the flip-flopping accusations take on a hysterical tone -- did you know Romney even appointed gay people to public office? -- but they point to a real problem for the putative presidential contender. The dominance of Rudolph Giuliani and John McCain has created an opening in the GOP field for a strong yet electable social conservative. It's a void Romney has been striving to fill. To have any chance of success, however, Romney is going to need to win over evangelicals in large numbers...

Unless Romney comes up with something compelling, his efforts to appease culture warriors on both sides may just get him knocked out of the running by a one-two, left-right combination.

It appears you can't have any evidence of social tolerance lurking in your past and hope to survive a GOP primary. Romney's learning this the hard way.

In the wake of Barack Obama's fabulously successful trip to New Hampshire, two other decidedly less visible Dem Presidential hopefuls are taking their own trips to New Hampshire: New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Senator Joe Biden. The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that Richardson will be the special guest at a state Democratic Party gathering this Saturday. Richardson is expected to make other stops in the state, but they have yet to be determined. Meanwhile, Biden will also be in the state this weekend with stops in Manchester and Hopkinton, the Union Leader reports.

Still more awful numbers for President Bush: A new ABC News poll finds that a "new high" of 70 percent disapprove of his handling of Iraq, and six in 10 now say the war wasn't worth fighting.

Strikingly, the poll also finds that Bush's approval ratings are well below those of two other recent Presidents at the same time in their terms, even though they were both facing hideously bad scandals at the time. Bush's current approval rating of 36% is much lower than President Clinton's was -- 64% -- despite his impending impeachment. And it's significantly lower than President Reagan's was -- 49% -- even though the Iran-Contra story had just broken. Iraq: Worse than impeachment; worse than Iran-Contra.

"After a while, Congressman Kucinich's Don Quixote-like struggle starts to appear kind of goofy. Everyone deserves a shot to run for president, but I am not sure everyone deserves two shots."

-- Stuart Rothenberg, quoted in the Cleveland Plain Dealer on the topic of Dennis Kucinich's plans to run again for President

Man, President Bush's numbers are just plain awful. A new CBS poll finds his approval rating at 31%, with a staggeringly low 21% approving of his handling of the Iraq war -- the lowest number he's ever received, CBS says. Pessimism about the war is at an all time high, even worse than it was at the same point during the Vietnam War: "Opposition to the war is now taking on historic proportions, with 62 percent saying it was `a mistake' to send U.S. troops to Iraq — slightly more than told a Gallup Poll in 1973 that it was a mistake to send U.S. forces to Vietnam."

"By a 2-1 margin, Americans now say they have more confidence in congressional Democrats to handle the war than in the president," the poll continues. "Nearly six in 10 Americans want to see some kind of a drawdown in U.S. troop levels, including 25 percent who want all U.S. forces removed from Iraq."

It's hard to imagine that these numbers could get worse for the White House. But if things continue along this same course, they probably will.

GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce has officially been reelected to the House of Representatives, after an automatic recount found that Pryce had prevailed over Dem challenger Mary Jo Kilroy by the slimmest of margins, the Associated Press reports. The first vote count found Pryce up by 1,055 votes, a total that fell within the half of one percent margin required to trigger a recount. The final tally found yesterday that Pryce had increased her margin of victory by seven votes, to 1,062.

Via Ben Smith, it looks as if Rudy Giuliani took a jab at John McCain in an interview that's passed entirely unnoticed -- a gentle jab, yes, but a jab nonetheless. In a Q&A with Dennis Prager (the same one who attacked Keith Ellison recently for being a Muslim), Giuliani was asked how he compared to John McCain. His answer:

"I mean, John and I have pretty much the same view on the war, as best I can tell. I mean, I think he is...it may be that I'm more firmly committed to tax cutting than he is, although he has vote for some tax cuts. He hasn't voted for others."

It's interesting to note that Giuliani has begun to draw differences between himself and McCain on the all-important GOP primary issue of taxes. But something else jumps out about the interview as well.

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From a press release just sent out by Barack Obama's Senate office:

Obama to Make “Announcement” Prior to Monday Night Football

WASHINGTON – U.S. Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) said that he will make an “announcement” tonight about an upcoming contest of great importance to the American people.

Below is a portion of Obama’s “announcement,” which will air shortly before the start of Monday Night Football tonight on ESPN.

“So tonight I’d like to put all the doubts to rest. And tonight, after a lot of thought and a good deal of soul-searching, I would like to announce to my hometown of Chicago and all of America that I’m ready…”

To learn more, tune in tonight.

Alas, it isn't to be. A source close to Senator Obama tells us it's all just a gag, that his "announcement" has nothing to do with Presidential politics. So what will Obama be announcing?

Hint: It has something to do with the Chicago Bears, and the Senator's support for them.

Stay tuned.

Update: Okay, we can't bear to keep you in suspense any longer. Obama will say that he's ready..."for the Chicago Bears to go all the way!"

After Tom Vilsack, the second Dem Presidential hopeful to announce his campaign will not be Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, or even John Edwards.

Nope, it'll be...Dennis Kucinich. He's running -- again.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer's political blog says Kusinich will announce his candidacy from the steps of Cleveland's City Hall tomorrow. As the Plain Dealer notes wryly, Kucinich's "unsuccessful bid" for the White House in 2004 attracted national attention for its "anti-war stance and a proposal to create a cabinet level department of peace." More here.

Wait 'till next year.

That's Hillary's answer to those who want to know when she'll decide if she's running for President. Asked today about her White House aspirations, Clinton replied:

"I'm talking to people who have opinions about what our country needs to do going forward and whether or not I make any decisions, I can't really confront until after the first of the year."

The Associated Press says it's the first time she's publicly confirmed her time frame.

Relatedly, Hillary offered up a bit more fodder for those who enjoy speculating about the developing rivalry between her and Barack Obama:

Asked if Obama would make a good president, Clinton chuckled.

"We just have to take one day at a time right now," she said. "I'm just excited there's a lot of enthusiasm for Democrats around the country."

Update: In other enormously important developments in the Presidential race, a GOP source has told CNN that Mitt Romney will form an exploratory committee in early January. He'll then embark on a multi-state tour later in the month, CNN reports.

Mitt Romney may be under fire from social conservatives for some pro-gay-rights comments he made over 10 years ago, but one powerful leader of the religious right is opting to stay silent on Romney's transgression: James Dobson of Focus on the Family. Election Central has just spoken to a ministry representative for the organization who asked for anonymity, and this person told us that there will be no public statement forthcoming from either Dobson or his group regarding Romney. Some analysts have noted that Romney's comments could damage him in his quest to present himself as the true conservative alternative to Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Still, Dobson's decision to stay silent on the issue — should it last — will give Romney one less thing to worry about.

2008 GOP presidential hopeful Rep. Duncan Hunter told a crowd in Spartanburg, South Carolina yesterday that his "conservative ideas," such as building a 700 mile fence along the US-Mexican border, are "worth more than money" and give him an "excellent chance to win." Hunter, who was in town to speak at the Symposium Cafe, spent most of the event puffing up his foreign policy and national security credentials, putting specific emphasis on his ideas about trade relations with China, according to the Spartanburg Herald Journal. Regarding Iraq, he not only said he felt outgoing Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld "did a great job," but that Americans should support President Bush's soon-to-be-announced new plan for Iraq, regardless of what it may be, so that Bush can speak with "one voice" on the subject.

The event for Hunter was put together on 48 hours notice by Spartanburg County Republican Party Chairman Rick Beltram and also served to honor textile magnate Richard Milliken, an influentianl Republican in the county. As the paper notes, Hunter has some catching up to do in the state as two of his main primary rivals, Sen. John McCain and MA Gov. Mitt Romney, have visited South Carolina on numerous occasions over the past two years. He plans to return in the next few weeks after visiting Iowa.

As the outgoing governor, Tom Vilsack might be an Iowa favorite son, but that doesn't mean Vilsack can count on automatic support from his fellow Iowa Dems. The Des Moines Register reports that many Democratic activists in the state are hedging on whether they'll back Vilsack and are biding their time as they assess the rest of the growing field of candidates.

Case in point: Local Dem official Jan Bauer, who speaks out candidly to the paper, and happily does so on the record — showing just how little there is to fear from disloyalty to Vilsack, the state's top Democrat. "My first response is, it's going to be about electability. I think that's the bottom line, for me at least," Bauer says. "I'm not sure Governor Vilsack's got that yet. That's why I'm hedging." Other Iowa Dems speak out here.

"I have the conservative ideas which are worth more than money, with respect to national defense, my border fence and the two-way street on trade. That's a message that will resonate with South Carolina, and gives me an excellent chance to win."

-- '08 hopeful Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA), speaking to a crowd in Spartanburg, South Carolina, as quoted by the Spartanburg Herald Journal.

A bit more on the wave of Obama-mania that just hit New Hampshire: It turns out that Senator Barack Obama's two events in the Granite State yesterday didn't just sell out -- they also drew spectators from 12 different states. According to today's Chicago Tribune, "Democratic organizers said tickets were sold to people in a dozen states outside New Hampshire." More soon.

These days, it seems, you can't run for President without publishing a book -- so now Senator Hillary Clinton has gotten into the game by re-releasing her 1996 tome, It Takes A Village. The Associated Press reports that Hillary has updated the book for post-9/11 America with a new preface: "The five years since 9/11 have reinforced one of my main points: How children are raised anywhere can impact our lives and our children's futures," she writes. "Today's electronic village has certainly complicated the always difficult challenge of parenting and raising the next generation."

Clinton is scheduled to do a reading in Manhattan next Monday, and in Westchester County, where she and Bill Clinton live, the following day. She's also planning some talk show appearances, suggesting that she intends to use the book as a publicity vehicle in preparation for her likely Presidential race, just as John Edwards and Barack Obama have done.

Obama-mania went national this morning, as his visit to New Hampshire yesterday earned extensive and largely favorable coverage in today's New York Times, Washington Post, the Boston Globe, and Los Angeles Times, as well as from the Associated Press, Fox News and many others. Much of the coverage noted the massive, wildly enthusiastic, overflow crowds jamming into the two events Obama appeared at yesterday, as well as the 150 reporters who showed up to assess the abilities of the unseasoned but clearly talented young pol. Some excerpts from the coverage after the jump.

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Yes, it is possible to be reelected to Congress while being targeted by a Federal bribery probe. Rep. William Jefferson proved that yesterday, easily winning reelection in yesterday's runoff against fellow Dem Karen Carter. The Associated Press has called the race for Jefferson, reporting that with 44 percent of precincts in, Jefferson leads Carter by a lopsided 61%-39%.

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