Now this must feel like a slap in the face: CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin and Dem Gary Trauner from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite," suggesting the possibility of a huge upset. CQ, in a wry reference to the recent incident where Cubin suggested she wanted to "slap" a wheelchair victim, notes wryly that rising public doubts about Cubin in this premiere GOP district stem less from ideology and more from her personality's "rough edge." More from CQ after the jump.

CQ Politics:

That facet of Cubin’s persona received its biggest and possibly its most damaging public display during an Oct. 22 debate. Libertarian nominee Thomas Rankin — who has multiple sclerosis and uses an electric wheelchair — said Cubin approached him, apparently angry over a comment he had made, and said, “If you weren’t sitting in that chair, I’d slap you across the face.”

Cubin apologized for the incident, but it has created an unceasing barrage of negative publicity for the incumbent that, according to an independent poll, has sharply eroded her standing among Wyoming’s voters. A poll conducted Oct. 18-25 for the Wyoming Tribune-Eagle of Cheyenne found Cubin maintained only a 4 percentage-point lead over Trauner, 44 percent to 40 percent, with 5 percent of respondents supporting Rankin. Most notably, those polled Oct. 18-22, before the debate, favored Cubin by 12 points, while those polled after the debate favored Trauner by the same 12-point margin.

Cubin has attempted to minimize the political damage, reminding voters of the federal money she has brought home to the state while branding Trauner as an East Coast liberal — he is a New York native — who is beholden to the mainly liberal House Democratic leadership.

The Cubin campaign has run an television ad proclaiming “New Yorkers march to a different drummer.” The ad then creates a fake image of Trauner in New York City, and morphs his suit into an “I Love NY” T-shirt.

For his part, Trauner has tried to position himself above the political fray, denouncing Cubin’s attack ads and even endorsing publicly financed elections.

He has also distanced himself from perceived Democratic liabilities in conservative Wyoming: He continues to stress his opposition to gun control and has deflected questions as to whether he would vote for liberal California Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the current House minority leader, to be Speaker should the Democrats win control of the chamber Nov. 7.