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TX-22: Cook: Dem-Leaning Race Now A Toss Up
It isn't easy to find a ratings change favoring the GOP these days, but here's one: Charlie Cook has just changed his rating of the race for Tom DeLay's seat between Dem Nick Lampson and GOP write-in candidate "Leans Democratic" to "Toss Up." This contest is a strange one, to say the least. A recent poll found the race to be tighter than expected, with 36% for Lampson and 28% for Sekula-Gibbs. But it's impossible to gague the poll's accurate, because Sekula-Gibbs' name won't be on the ballot and voters might be confused by the write-in wrinkle. On the other hand, the poll also found that 52% knew of the write-in requirement and know how to handle it. We'll find out soon enough.
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This is good news:
"Forty percent of poll respondents say they usually vote straight-party. Thirty-two percent plan on doing so this year.
Republican straight-ticket ballots will not register votes for Sekula-Gibbs, since the special election is nonpartisan and the general election does not have a Republican candidate in the district."
Thus, a good # of GOP voters are likely to vote straight ticket, which means they won't be voting for Sekula-Gibbs (and yes, that does appear out of sync with other findings in the poll).
November 1, 2006 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
S-E-K-U-L-A G-I-B-B-S
I'm certain there will be plenty of Republican lawyers suddenly looking to "ascertain the voters' intent" when they find botched ballots...an activity totally maligned four years ago in Florida.
November 1, 2006 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can hardly wait to hear about voters trying to dial in the hyphen in Sekula-Gibbs. There is none in the fine voting machines.
This is a real laugher.
Best, Terry
November 1, 2006 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought SSG's name was going to be literally on the ballot, but in the space reserved for the special election to fulfill the rst of Delay's term?
Which makes me wonder how many votes Lampson might lose due to people thinking, hey, I voted for the guy once, what's this second line with his name on it?
Then again, it has to be less than those who vote for her once, and then don't see her name anywhere else on the ballot.
As far as Cyby's "Voter intent" thought, I had similar thoughts myself....frankly, i was wondering how close voter attempts had to be for their votes to be counted as valid nods for Sekula-Gibbs? Would a "ssg" count?
November 2, 2006 3:28 AM | Reply | Permalink