TN-SEN: USA Today Poll Will Show Close Race, Ford Camp Claims
The campaign of Dem Harold Ford, Jr., is claiming that a U.S.A. Today poll will soon show that the race with GOP candidate Bob Corker is approaching a dead-heat race, with Ford trailing by a statistically insignificant three points. The U.S.A. Today numbers aren't yet online but were sent out in a press release by the Ford campaign. The U.S.A. Today poll will show Corker up 49%-46%, the Ford camp says, adding that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points. We'll bring you the U.S.A. Today poll as soon as it's available. We don't know how significant this poll is, given recent independent polls showing a Corker lead, but we're passing it along for your enjoyment and edification, anyway.
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Yes, I hope the USA poll is far more predictive of this race. I have come to beleive that being the winner is more about what the polls 'predict' than how voters actually vote.
There are times when I wonder if, basically, this race is going to come down to who know how to cheat the best when it comes to voting fraud.
It may turn out that Ford's family history, and being a political scion, stands him in good stead in turns of being up against a corrupt GOP voting machine. In short, his family has fought this 'voter fraud fight many times. Just like Popa Joe Kennedy did for JFK..this may be about pulling in debts owed.
I fervently hope that he wins 'by any means necessary'...after all this is the 'dirty South'...home of all types of voter fraud and disenfranchisement for generations.
The race is on!!!!!
November 5, 2006 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
3points is a dead-heat race
So's four...so's anything inside the MOE
Happens to me too every cycle..comes from reading too many polls and squinting at 1-2 pt shifts in 3 pt races.
Good for Ford. I thought he was DOA too.
November 5, 2006 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a hard time greeting a poll that shows the Dem 3 points down, the the Rep within 1 point of winning, as good news. And the large MOE doesn't mean it's a complete toss-up, it still says Corker is likely ahead. Still, welcome news from previous polls.
November 5, 2006 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
By their very nature, poll results come out with a time lag.
I think the reason the recent polls appear to have suddenly tightened had much to do with their timing to coincide with Senator Kerry’s comments (and Pres. Bush’s harsh put-down of those comments), which dominated the news at that time. Many of those polled may have had a visceral reaction to those remarks, which on the margin may have translated to a temporary pick up for the Republicans.
Many of these recent polls took their sample between Nov 1 and Nov 3. Nothing else could have accounted for the sudden tilt away from the Dems.
We now know, Kerry is no longer an issue. This would explain Harold Ford’s improvement on the USA Today poll. Look for a shift back to a wider gap for the Democrats on later polls.
November 5, 2006 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
whiterosebuddy is right on target.
The best possible result from this election would involve the Democrats' gaining control of the Senate through an unusually large and suspicious Democratic turnout in Tennessee on behalf of Rep. Ford. In this way, Republicans would see that "it can happen to them, too" and would join the bandwagon for much-needed reforms in the electoral process. In this sense, I come dangerously close to wishing for electoral fraud (just short of it).
As for the polls, I found those showing Corker to be near a double-digit lead to be the anomalous ones. The reality from what polls can tells us is a small Corker lead--the rest will come from the war of the ballot boxes late Tuesday evening: who will report theirs first, who will hold back, and what results will come out from the precincts that are late?
see http://chinshihtang.blogspot.com
November 5, 2006 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink