Rothenberg: Dems Will Take Senate, Win 34-40 House Seats
Political wire has advance excerpts of Stuart Rothenberg's latest ratings, and Rothenberg is predicting a wholesale routing of the GOP. He says Dems will win the Senate: "We believe that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the United States Senate." And the House by an overwhelming margin: "We believe the most likely outcome in the House of Representatives is a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats, with slightly larger gains not impossible." More excerpts from Rothenberg after the jump.
The Senate: "While Senate control is in doubt, with Democrats most likely to win from 5 to 7 seats, we do not think the two sides have an equal chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Instead, we believe that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the United States Senate."The House: "Going into the final days before the 2006 midterm elections, we believe the most likely outcome in the House of Representatives is a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats, with slightly larger gains not impossible. This would put Democrats at between 237 and 243 seats, if not a handful more, giving them a majority in the next House that is slightly larger than the one the Republicans currently hold. If these numbers are generally correct, we would expect a period of GOP finger-pointing and self-flagellation after the elections, followed by a considerable number of Republican House retirements over the next two years."
Governors: "With Republican seats like Idaho, Alaska, and Nevada in play for state-specific reasons, and Minnesota vulnerable to a Democratic wave, the ceiling for possible Democratic gains is high. We have narrowed our earlier projection from Democratic gains of 6-10 to 7-9."















Seriously what happened to painting Bowers as hopelessly naive? Now what? 40 Seats? Madness!
Rothenberg is drunk on something, and hopefully I'll be able to enjoy some some by the time Nov. 8 rolls around.
November 2, 2006 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
Just saw Rothenberg, Cook, Sabato on Hardball. I hate to say this but my old Senate office mate from that 70's show got it wrong on VA.
Charlie thinks tossup and has a low opinion of Webb and Allen as campaigners
Rothenberg sees Allen - incummbent - running against a guy in his very first race for public office - spent kazillions and is stuck at 45%
I also think that the Tidewater (Norfolk, VA Beach) and their military vets and active duty voters will go for Webb in sufficient numbers to give him the win.
November 2, 2006 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
All the talk about the coming Dem triumph, frankly, is starting to give me hives. What if people start thinkiing this baby is won and stay home and DON'T VOTE???!!!
I know the media is flogging this theme right now, but would it be too much to ask the talking heads on our side to defy their normal lust to get on TV, stay home, and just shut the f**k up?
At least John Kerry will be doing that. Finally. Thankfully.
November 2, 2006 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's hard to believe all this, but considering the mainstream media's constant attempts to pump Republican chances of keeping their majorities in BOTH houses, can you imagine the shock among Republicans if they wake up on November 8 and see a huge wave of 40 seats in the house and 6 in the Senate?
How will the scum like Hannity and Rush Limbaugh spin that?
Ah, now I remember! It will be because Republicans turned against their base and didn't pay enough attention to the fundies!
How foolish of me to have questioned!
"We have always been at war with east-Asia!"
--- Rush Limbaugh
November 2, 2006 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rothenberg isn't alone, Charlie Cook said two days ago, that if independents vote, it'll be Armageddon for the republicans.
I voted yesterday .... in Texas, and even here the crowd was there and steady. I published the paperwork :
http://colorado-bob.blogspot.com/
November 2, 2006 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've stocked up on blank DVD's to record shows like Hannity's, if we get the chance to seem him implode! Can you hear it now? "Independents have betrayed this country". Or even better, would be watching the silicone implants in Bill O'Liely's head melt! I'd also pay good $$ to see Rush Windbag studder and stammer--well, maybe not good money, as he'll just blame "the liberal media", which like all Rush constructs, is something that doesn't exist.
November 2, 2006 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The first step is for Rothenberg to admit he has a problem....
40 seats??? Or more? Setting ourselves up for disappointment with that kind of thinking. As far as I'm concerned we might take the majority, in the House only, if we continue to work our asses off and get everyone we can to the polls.
Let's coast, and enjoy it, after the election. Not before.
November 2, 2006 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
More likely to depress the GOP vote
November 3, 2006 12:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
If you plug in the NyT's 18 pt Generic Ballot spread into this statistical model the Dems will pick up 37-47 (240-250)
But at 12 pts 225-235. That happens to be Andrew Kohut's estimate as well based on Pew's current spread.
As for the Senate...50-50 the best ..I think Ford's done, Tester's losing ground, as for the Show Me State, show me a coin
November 3, 2006 12:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
November 3, 2006 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink