Poll Is Bad News For Romney: 43% Won't Vote For A Mormon
A new Rasmussen poll has some bad news for Mitt Romney as he heads into an expected run for the White House: 43% of Americans say they wouldn't consider voting for a Mormon for President. Only 38% say they would consider voting for such a candidate. The number is even worse for him with Evangelical Christians, a key social-conservative GOP demographic: A full 53% of them would vote against a Mormon candidate. Still, it could be worse for Romney; the absolute least popular religious affiliations are to be Muslim or atheist, the poll finds. Rasmussen finds that 61% say they would never consider voting for a Muslim Presidential candidate; 60%, meanwhile, would never pull the lever for an atheist.















I still think that if social conservative leaders approve of Romney, he'll be fine, Mormon or no.
They have already shown signs that they are willing to do so. He is an attractive politician.
I think the fact that he's a massive flip-flopper on social issues, including abortion, will ultimately prove more damaging to Romney.
November 20, 2006 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been saying this for months now.
Mormons are not even considered to be Christians by many religious groups. Catholic Church does not recognize Mormon paptism. I suspect it is even worse with evangelicals.
Romney is a strong candidate on paper. Unfortunately for him the religion thing is going to be a problem. Especially as a GOP candidate. The religion issue might not have been a big deal if he had been running in the Dem primaries. It will be a big issue in GOP primaries.
If he survives the primaries and somehow wins the nomination it will be interesting to see how he will do against Hillary if she wins the Dem nomination. My guess is some voters will never vote for a Mormon. Some will never vote for a woman. Will their handicaps cancel each other out?
I still say McCain is the most likely GOP nominee. Here is why;
* McCain has the support of both old establishment republicans and neocons.
* He has the media in the tank.
* He will raise truckloads of cash.
* He is slowly but surely winning over religious right and overcoming their resistance.
* Thanks to a fawning media many independents think he is a "moderate", thus he will be acceptable to independents and even to some Democrats.
November 20, 2006 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
BTW, my guess is the poll numbers are even more bleak for Romney.
A lot of poll respondents are probably saying they would vote for a Mormon out of political correctness.
It's the same if you ask them would you vote for a black, Jew, woman, gay........etc.
I'd knock off 5-10% from the poll numbers.
November 20, 2006 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Having an actual person attached to the question, rather than just saying "would you vote for a Mormon," would undoubtedly make a big difference.
I bet the numbers were even worse for Catholics in 1960, but John F. Kennedy still won. I think that when they see and hear Romney up close, the GOP primary voters will reconsider their prejudices against Mormons.
November 20, 2006 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
In fact, 22% still say they won't vote for a Catholic in this poll!
November 20, 2006 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Taken as a whole, the American voter is dumber than dirt.
November 20, 2006 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain?
You mean John McArmageddon?
That oughta get a the rapture crowd to stand up and shout, Hallelujah!!
~OGD~
November 20, 2006 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
"but John F. Kennedy still won."
I don't have poll numbers to back it up but I am guessing a lot of the anti Catholic vote was probably on the other side. And lets not forget JFK almost lost.
Problem for Romney is, I am guessing here, the anti Mormon vote is probably mostly on the GOP side.
November 20, 2006 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is an obvious difference between anti-Catholic prejudice in 1960 and anti-Mormon prejudice today. Catholics in 1960 were a quarter of the population, so anti-Catholic prejudice could be largely offset by Catholic pride. Mormons are a much, much, smaller minority (and largely concentrated in a few small states that are not likely to be decisive in either the Republican primaries or the general election).
November 20, 2006 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
As much as I hate romney this is just sad.
November 21, 2006 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have no reason to support Romney (lousy on policy, a poor politician and a missing governor) but the question and results are troubling.
The question is somewhat of a push poll. It leads a person to say they won't vote for a Morman (a largely unknown religion) and then leaves them with a conscious negative sense.
I watched Providence RI elect a mayor who is gay. His being gay just wasn't a big deal in the election. Yet I have to guess that without a real person in mind the Providence electorate would not have been enthusiastic about voting for a generic gay mayor.
So what does a poll say about electability?
[Prov mayor David Cicilline}
November 21, 2006 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I definitely agree on the second count, but I don't know whether the first was also true. Kennedy won with a bunch of Southern states (NC, SC, TX, GA, LA, AR, MO, NM), the mid-Atlantic (presumably many Catholics), Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Nevada, far different from where Dems win today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ElectoralCollege1960-Large.png
(I looked for polling on voting for Catholics from 1960 but couldn't find any. Wikipedia says:
The November 8 election was extremely close-- Kennedy beat Nixon by two tenths of a percentage point (0.2%) in the popular vote. The New York Times, summarizing the discussion late in November, spoke of a “narrow consensus” among the experts that Kennedy had won more than he lost as a result of his Catholicism.[1] Interviewing the same people who voted in 1956 and 1960, the Michigan team discovered that the voters for Stevenson the Democrat in 1956 split 33–6 for Kennedy, while the Eisenhower voters of 1956 split 44–17 for Nixon. That is, Nixon lost 28% (17/61) of the Eisenhower voters, while Kennedy lost only 15% of the Stevenson voters. The Democrats, in other words, did a better job holding their base than the Republicans by a razor-thin margin.[2])
Still, I think that once the evangelicals see and hear Romney, who is a very good politician and will speak their right-wing conservative language, they will be more willing to overlook his religion to a far greater extent than this poll suggests.
November 21, 2006 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I don't have poll numbers to back it up but I am guessing a lot of the anti Catholic vote was probably on the other side. And lets not forget JFK almost lost.
Problem for Romney is, I am guessing here, the anti Mormon vote is probably mostly on the GOP side."
The other factor is that in 1960 you didn't have a lot of Catholic Evangelizers out there trying to convert non-Catholics to Catholicism.
I don't see anything good about anti-Mormon bigotry. On the other hand, its a little hard to be anything more than barely sympathetic to conservative Mormon politicians who can't get Right Wing Christian support.
-Dave Adams-
November 21, 2006 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Being myself LDS/"Mormon" I personally can't wait to see the dynamics as this whole thing plays out. Having personally witnessed alot of anti-Mormon stances, tactics and degrees of passion it will be interesting to see how such is placed into the political fray. I think anyone who wants a representative look at what might happen should look into things like the construction of the LDS/"Mormon" Temple near Boston or just about any attempted Mormon Temple construction outside the "Book of Mormon Belt" The kind of opposition and tactics used to oppose most all the temples we try to build shows some rather extreme actions that various angles of Mormon opposition do and are willing to take.
http://www.mormonstoday.com/subjects/BostonTemple.shtml
http://www.ldschurchtemples.com/cgi-bin/pages.cgi?boston
All potential opposition will have to be cautious about their assaults so as to avoid the appearance of blatant religious bigotry, yet I expect formidable opposition done cunningly and with nothing held back to whatever degree either the Media, McCainites, or raw anti-Mormons on both the evangelical and secular sides can muster in their respective targets and agendas. Each has certain aspects of their appearance to maintain yet all have motivation to expose as much as they can on Romney. The media go the best of his dad. It'll be interesting to see how he goes.
Certainly, in my view, fertile ground for a dark horse, so long as said horse isn't one of the presently tossed around longshot names.
November 22, 2006 4:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am glad to have your insight, haven't seen your comments for a while.
Your use of LDS/Mormon reminds me that I know better, having lived in Idaho, that appropriate nomenclature is LDS.
November 22, 2006 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
To be honest I personally don't see anything wrong with the term "Mormon." I try to keep the LDS connected for a few reasons, however. On my mission I knocked on a man's door and a conversation ensued. The man informed us that all religions were simply out to get what they could from you. Then he paused and told us there was an exception, he said that "Mormons" were what he'd seen to be the exception. I tried to kindly assert (while holding a Book of Mormon in view) that we were that very same church that he saw as being the exception in his experience, the man simply said "No you're not" and proceeded on. After several more attempts at politely insisting that we were we realized it was not a battle we were going to win and kindly left the man. Now I think there were some mental disconnect issues as the man didn't seem to be all together there. But that point helped me a little to see the wisdom in trying to always put forward the name that our Church claimed at it's inseption rather than merely referencing the word "Mormon. Another time I came upon a woman that had immigrated from El Salvador. When she found out we were the "Mormons" she informed us that that word had been commonly used in her country to designate someone who didn't believe in God.
So while I take no offense at all at being called "Mormon" I can see the wisdom, to some degree, in the insistance of our leadership to refer to us by our actual, rather than our informal label of "Mormon."
And thanks for your kind words. I have different sites I visit. I probably should have visited this site more often than I have to keep up my glance into the more liberal side.
It's so easy to join in the forces of polarization and get trapped into simply frequenting the familiar and/or sympathetic forums and medias.
While some things can lead to more rolling of the eyes or frustration my experience has been that some degree of a broad view is essential for any hope of being able to take any semblence of truth from what is put out for public consumption.
What really concerns me is the distant happenings. Our society in general has so many pet themes and such a generally narrow and short view that I don't think even a percent of those actively involved (myself likely being outside that percent) that really have a good grounding in what is occuring collectively in the world. There's just so much we don't see. And what we do see is so often the same spots on the map.
November 23, 2006 2:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let me wade into some deep waters.
LDS may be the polite term. But expanded it sets off alarm bells particularly among Evangelicals. "Latter Day Saints". Almost sounds like Mormons are claiming like they will be he only ones saved and everybody else will be "Left Behind". Well sorry but there is already a religious group inhabiting the American space that says "We love you as people, but we are going to be raptured and serve at the side of the Lord as warriors at Armageddon, and you are going to endure 1000 years of Tribulation suffering under the rule of the AntiChrist". These people are rightfully suspect of a group that explains that they are Christians just like anyone else but just happen to worship their faith based on a newer and better Christianity revealed on some golden plates sent by God to Illinois.
I live in a heavily Mormon area. The rest of my family lives in Boise where you can't drive three blocks without seeing a Temple. But friends Evangelicals don't much believe in Temples. Or Bishops. Or New Revelations to Joseph Smith. They have a Bible, they like its Perfection, they like that it is from God's Mouth to Your Ear. That they are expected to accept a presidential candidate that believes God had to add a supplement in Nauvoo, Illinois in 1843 cannot be expected to go down well.
Mormons are not bad people. Insular yes. Determined to spread their faith yes. But trust me Mormons do not want to have the fundamental beliefs of their faith spread across the nations newspapers. Jerry Falwell can sputter and spew but Mormonism cannot be assimilated into Fundamentalist Christianity. Mormons' vision of the after life is to say the least a little different than the typical Four Square Evangelical one. The only reason only 53% of evangelicals currently categorically rule out voting for a Mormon is because they don't know enough about Mormonism's central tenets.
Romney may delude himself into thinking that being a practicing Mormon is just about the same thing as being a lapsed Catholic, or that belonging to a sect that preaches "family values" is going to overcome some pretty serious fundamental belief system differences but I suspect he has another think coming.
Muslims venerate Jesus. They just believe he was a forerunner to the real deal in Mohammed. Mormons are pretty much sitting in the same seat as Muslims, they have a newer and better Revelation than that boring old New Testament thing. This may have flown in Massachusetts but Romney's apparent belief that he can just glide over the clouds and gain the support of the Republican base of evangelicals is to my mind delusional. They like the Christ they have.
November 23, 2006 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
First off it was not in Illinois that the Book of Mormon was translated or published. The Illinois period was a bit after such. And the term for all but one of those buildings in Boise is the term "chaple" a fundamentally different structure than LDS temples, anyone can go into the chaples. Granted these are technicalities
There's a massive difference in how we and Mulims see Christ. We, like traditional Christians, hold him to be God. Muslims do not.
We believe in the Christ of the Bible. We simply see the promises and nature of such as different than is read by today's traditional Christians. We hold God the Father and His Son to be one God and yet to be distinct physical beings.
November 23, 2006 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too, me too, me too.
It is the main reason I have what some might see as a testy attitude towards blog triumphalism as to the blogosphere in its current form, with people seeking out like-minded communities for political bonding, activism and boosterism. It is also why I've been an advocate here in the past for more acceptance of various political persuasions commenting here. And, at the start, nationalities, which now seems a bit hopeless with the emphasis of the mother ship on the details of U.S. politics, but at one time, with a couple of European contributors, seemed quite possible.
There's nothing wrong with political activism, it's just that it doesn't solve the purpose of breaking out of the cycle of "hot news topic of day" or "hot news topic of year" and moving towards bigger world perspectives. Even the specialization thing is insidious; if you bounce around the liberal blogosphere reading about atrocity after boondoogle in Iraq for several weeks, for example, it's easy to get a real warped perspective about it being close to causing Armaggedon, when, in actuality, a lot of equivalent things were happening at exactly the same time in countries in Africa.
It's not that perfection is necessary and it's not that it has never been done: a paper like The New York Times manages to present a good balanced smattering of what's going on around the world everyday, putting the headline stories in perspective. But the blogosphere in general still seems to be reinforcing the TV news model of hottest topics with added excessive rhetoric as decided by ratings. (It's important to note that Ted Turner's CNN did not always bow to that.) Example: the 40 or so blog entries here on Cheney's hunting accident, or how everyone here drop Iraq news like a hot potato during Katrina.
I'm quite aware that the feeding frenzy model is operative around the world and not just the U.S., it's just that I had hopes that the internet would help break it, not feed it more. It's not going to until people stop wanting to get their news interpretation from like-minded "communities." Politic activism and boosterism with ostracism of the "other" is a blogosphere goal that works at odds with getting a good perspective of world news, and conequently, what one's leaders should do about it, unless you bounce around to hundreds of blogs all the time.
November 25, 2006 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, which countries in Africa are those? I get the daily BBC updates on Africa, and I haven't been reading anything remotely comparable to what's happening in Iraq happening in any African country over the last four years.
November 27, 2006 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Measuring the degree of like vs. unlike, I think Mormons probably actually do occupy a position somewhat closer to mainline Protestants and Catholics than Muslims do, but I think they are still closer to Muslims in terms of how unlike they are.
(I'm sort of thinking of how comparisons of ideology can place politicians in a spectrum from, say, Ted Kennedy on the left to Rick Santorum on the right, as well as of the belief-o-matic on belief.net)
You might say that if Catholics and Protestants are at 1 and 2 and Muslims are at 10, Mormons are at 7 or 8.
November 27, 2006 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't dispute that there are alot of religious bigots in this country, especially among evangelicals. However the figure of 43% not voting for a Mormon is utter nonsense. When the evangelicals see Mitt pitted against Hillary, they will swallow their pride and overwhelmingly support Romney
January 21, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink