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Poll: Dems Maintain 20-Point Lead Over GOP In Generic Matchup
If the race between the GOP and Dems in the generic Congressional matchup is tightening, as several polls seem to show, then that's news to CNN's pollsters. A new CNN poll out this morning finds that Dems hold a 20 point lead over the GOP among likely voters, 58%-38%. That's a wider gap than many other recent polls have shown, so it could be an outlier, though it's basically the same spread CNN found nearly a month ago.
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According to everyone in the know, the Democrats can't possibly lose...why are we even bothering to have an election?
Let's start dancing in the end zone now!
Dewey Wins!!!
November 6, 2006 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let's be honest here and not just cherrypick the one that rallies the troops on your side. Other generic polls show a much tighter race-- Pew has Dems up by only 4%, Washington Post has them up by 6%, Gallup by 7%. The closest to CNN is Newsweek at 16%.
Frankly I think all this means diddly squat, as no one is voting on a generic ballot tomorrow.
November 6, 2006 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. I never pay any attention to generic ballots. Political junkies of our ilk think of elections from a macro vantage point, but the average voter thinks in terms of the particular candidates on the ballot. Generics mean nothing. Polls mean very little. Get to work!
November 6, 2006 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damn! Why are you guys afraid of good news? When it gets down to the nitty gritty we need to get pumped up and pumped out to GOTV! Go to (callforchange.org) and give us a little phone calling love!
Ed Beckmann Disabled Viet Vet
November 6, 2006 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your point is?
Ed Beckmann Disabled Viet Vet
November 6, 2006 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
What's the difference in the internals of the polls?
P.S. Loyal TPM readers, please note that part of the GOP 72-hour plan is to flood our blogs with misinformation, etc. If you see names that aren't usually here, don't be surprised, and take their posts with a huge grain of salt.
GOTV, GOTV, GOTV!!!
November 6, 2006 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Kerry episode flamed out in three days. Unfortunately, those were the three days that the Pew poll was taken. The most recent polls – CNN and USA Today/Gallup do not cover that period and show the Dems back up to pre-Pew levels.
November 6, 2006 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's true, but there have been some interesting studies done showing how to extrapolate from one to the other.
www.pollster.com
Also, no exit polls before 5 pm tomorrow, so anyone who says differently is wrong.
Pollster.com: I want to ask more generally about how things will be different this year. First, let's talk about the issue of when and how you will release data to members of the National Election Pool (NEP) consortium and other subscribers. In the past, and please correct me if I'm wrong, hundreds of producers, editors and reporters had access to either the mid-day estimates or early versions of the crosstabulations that you would do, and the top-line estimate numbers would inevitably leak. How is that process going to be different this year?
Joe Lenski, exit pollster: The news organizations are really taking this challenge seriously on how to control the information for a couple of reasons. First, each of these news organizations have made a commitment to Congress over the years that they would not release data that would characterize the winner or leader in a race before the polls have closed. So in essence, by this data leaking, it was undermining that promise that they had made to Congress.
The other thing is that we know these are partial survey results. No polling organization leaks their partial survey results. If it's a four-day survey they don't leak results after two days. Similarly if it's a twelve-hour exit poll survey in the field you're not going to release results after just three hours of interviews. So the data will not be distributed to the news organizations until 5:00 p.m. in 2006, and that's a change from all the previous elections. The goal is that this will be more complete data and also we will have more time to review the data and deal with any issues in the data that look questionable that we need to investigate. It will still give news organizations time for their people to look at the data before the polls start closing.
November 6, 2006 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
Crunching the numbers - 20 pt Generic Bulge - through my super-fast J9000 computer model
;) **** .pdf
240-250 seats (Dems +37-47) seats
And from the woulda-coulda-shoulda Dept
Had the Democrats not been so effing spineless they could have plastered Bush from Bugtussle to Beaumont, Dogpatch to Daytona with the LOSER label.
The Idiot has lost the Wars on Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Somalia and terror
We Manly NASCAR Men (giggle) do not like losers
The War God That Failed
The neocons turn on their 'leader'
November 6, 2006 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
[Ruy Teixeira}
November Polls: Dems' Average Lead in Double Digits
Democrats are ahead by an average of over 11.5 percent in the seven major polls taken in November of LV party preferences in generic ballot congressional races. The breakdown, according to PollingReport.com: CNN +20; Newsweek +16; Time +15; Fox/Opinion Dynamics +13; USA Today/Gallup +7; ABC/Washington Post +6; and Pew Research Center +4.
November 6, 2006 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink