In a sign that the massive amounts of cash being pumped by national GOP strategists into Bob Ney's old district aren't overcoming the lingering voter distaste with Ney's corruption scandal, CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between Dem Zack Space and Ney's handpicked successor, Joy Padgett, from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic":

It appears that this significant outlay by the GOP’s House campaign committee did not hinder Space’s momentum, even though he likely would be a longshot candidate were it not for the scandal-driven downfall of the long-popular Ney.

The largely rural eastern Ohio 18th, which includes small cities such as Zanesville and Chillicothe, has a conservative lean...Ney in 2002 didn’t even draw a Democratic opponent, and in 2004 defeated a little-known Democrat with 66 percent to win a sixth House term.

But the political environment in Ohio now is far different today than it was two years ago....At a time when most voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country and with a Congress that the GOP controls, Ohio Republicans’ problems are redoubled by numerous ethics controversies involving not just Ney, but outgoing GOP Gov. Bob Taft and several of his aides and political associates.

CQ's full analysis here.