OH-01, OH-02: CQ: Two GOP-Held Seats Now Toss-Ups
In another sign that the GOP implosion in Ohio continues apace, CQ Politics has just shifted its rating of two Ohio races -- in the first and second districts -- from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." The races are Dem John Cranley's challenge to GOP Rep. Steve Chabot, and Dem Victoria Wulsin's effort to knock off GOP Rep. Jean "Mean Jean" Schmidt." CQ: "The Democrats have the momentum in Ohio. Their nominee in the open-seat race for governor, Rep. Ted Strickland, is a solid favorite to win on Tuesday, and their Senate nominee, Rep. Sherrod Brown, holds a lead, though a somewhat less dominant one, over Republican incumbent Mike DeWine." As noted below, today's Columbus Dispatch predicted a Dem sweep in Ohio. CQ's full analysis of both races here.
I think that's right, but the methodology used by the Dispatch made absolutely no sense, as they either polled too many Dems or didn't say with any confidence why they think more Dems are likely to vote than in the past (obviously there are lots of good reasons for that in Ohio):
"The Democratic blowout depicted in the poll is contingent on a strong turnout of party faithful Tuesday. The mail survey had 8 percent more Democratic respondents than Republican; typically, the returns show slightly more Republicans voting. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry would be president if the turnout in 2004 looked like these poll results."
November 6, 2006 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink