Novak To McCain: Compete In Iowa, Or Lose
In his latest column, Bob Novak gives John McCain a heavy dose of strong advice: seriously compete in Iowa, or fade away. Novak points out that Virginia Senator George Allen's defeat was bad news for McCain, because Allen's presence in the primaries would have splintered the conservative vote between him and Mitt Romney, who will now be able to solidify support on the right.
Novak opines that McCain can't afford to repeat his performance in 2000, when he essentially ceded the state. "If McCain were to skip Iowa and then lose to, or narrowly defeat, Romney in New Hampshire," Novak writes, "he would then risk being shut out through the Southern states' presidential primaries, nearly putting him out of contention." Novak points to McCain's recent hiring of Iowan GOP strategist Terry Nelson — one of the consultants behind the "Harold, Call Me" ad in Tennessee — as evidence that McCain is serious about competing in Iowa this time around.
If "Harold, call me" is an indication of future campaign strategy, his candidature isn't going anywhere.
You write as if McCain is still a moderate. I think he has positioned himself on the far right for this campaing and that there will be little or no room for anyone to outmaneuver him on that flank.
November 22, 2006 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
One interesting issue is whether Allen will still run. I know, it seems unimaginable he would after his humiliating, self-inflicted defeat, but modesty isn't in this guy's vocabulary and the only reason he wouldn't run is if he wants to rehabilitate himself for a 2009 gubernatorial campaign or another office instead. Not that he'll get anywhere...
Similarly, Frist will likely still run despite the huge GOP losses in the Senate.
November 22, 2006 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
More's the point, the far right thinks he's a moderate, and they don't mean it as a compliment.
I get the feeling that McCain's campaign will not survive the primaries. For a while I thought Huckabee was their dark horse, but some people are saying that his 'gift registry' will take him down. We'll see.
Hagel is still the one I fear the most, and I wonder if he and McCain can co-exist in the same primary field.
The schadenfreuder in me wants to watch Rudy Giuiliani's campaign fall apart like one of Wyle E. Coyote's RoadRunner chasin' machines, so Rudy's just left there all alone and looking stupid for a second before he crashes to the ground.
November 22, 2006 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
"he would then risk being shut out through the Southern states' presidential primaries, nearly putting him out of contention."
I strongly disagree.
I can see Romney winning the New Hampshire primary. I can't see him winning South Carolina and other southern primaries. If evangelicals have to choose between McCain and Romney they will choose McCain. They might have other choices. Some other religious right friendly figure like First or Brownback or Huckabee might do well in the south.
November 23, 2006 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
"You write as if McCain is still a moderate."
To a lot of right-wingers, anyone who is for "comprehesive" immgration reform (including a path to citzenship, no matter what the coniditions) is a "liberal" (not even a moderate!) regardless of his position on other issues.
If you don't beleive me, read some right-wing blogs.
November 23, 2006 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a "right winger" I can assure you that McCain, on many levels, is seen as a moderate. Aside from that worries about his age and instances of ticking off not one, but many, republican sub-movements insures that McCain is far from a shoe-in.
November 24, 2006 4:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm a lifelong Iowan and once again we are thrilled to be the first to be exposed to the political tricks and tools of all those peculiar fools who want to be president.
In Iowa, we alternately elect Republicans and Democrats to the governorship. One of our Senators is one of the most liberal Senators in the Senate, Democrat Tom Harkin, and the other is one of the most conservative, Republican Chuck Grassley. Why? Because we go for honesty and sincerity, not party affiliation.
Needless to say, the candidate who best learns to fake those characteristics generally gets our approval in the caucuses.
November 27, 2006 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't be so confident that they will choose McCain over Romney. The members of the religious right are top-down types, and their leaders are savvy political players, so they will likely endorse whoever has both a good chance of winning and will carry the most water for them. That may well be Romney rather than McCain.
I don't think Frist or Brownback have the political skills to be in contention. I'll reserve judgment on Huckabee for now, but I'm more inclined to think that he's in the latter category than the former.
November 27, 2006 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink