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NH-SEN: Lynch Will Not Run For Senate
Dem Gov. John Lynch, re-elected with 74% of the vote this year, will not be running for Senate in 2008, the Manchester Union Leader reports. Had he run, he would likely have been the strongest possible Democratic candidate.
First-term GOP Sen. John E. Sununu might still be in danger, though — this year's elections saw a full-scale Democratic takeover of what was once the New England region's Republican stronghold.
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That's too bad. Maybe Jeanne Shaheen will leave the IOP and come out of retirement to run. We need to field strong candidates in Maine and New Hampshire and turn these four Senate seats blue. The entire northeast is blue in the House, and there is no good reason why it shouldn't be in the Senate as well if we field good candidates.
The moderate Senators in Maine might be tougher to knock off, but we should definitely take the Senate seats in NH. NH is sort of like Virginia, trending blue as people flow to southern NH from Massachusetts.
November 17, 2006 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a shame neither senator was running this year.
I think Shaheen would have a good chance in 08 against Sununu.
As for our other senator, Hugh Gregg, we'll see in 2010. But the Gregg name has been a respected political fixture in this state for quite a while--not so easy to defeat. (The Democrats didn't really try in 2004. They fielded a grandmother in her nineties.) Then again, miracles do happen... I believe U S Grant was president the last time the Democrats held the state senate and house of representatives as they suddenly do now.
I also think the bluing of the state is only partly due to the flow of people from "Taxachusetts." New Hampshire has always been fiscally conservative but not socially so. The god-driven Southern brand of contemporary Republicanism doesn't play so well here.
November 17, 2006 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shaheen would be the strongest candidate in lieu of Governor Lynch. In respect of the Maine seats, the Democrats should be seriously courting both Olympia Snowe and (more promisingly) Susan Collins to cross the floor and really build up their majority in the Senate.
Though there are so many more Republican seats up in 2008, a lot of these are very hard to win Southern seats - and if Mike Rounds, the GOP Governor of South Dakota runs against Tim Johnson I'd have to handicap that one as a GOP pickup given Johnson's weak showings in both his Senate races. Voinovitch in Ohio will also be more difficult to beat than De Wine, though Colorado looks promising.
So any party switches from North Eastern Republicans (and Senator Smith of Oregon, for that matter) who are way outside the mainstream of their party, would provide a firewall for the Dems.
November 17, 2006 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Tim Johnson beat John Thune, than he should be able to beat Mike Rounds. Thune was an extremely popular Congressman who could have chosen to be in the House for life.
I would not necessarily say that Jeanne Shaheen would be the best candidate- rematches never seem to bode well for the challenger, especially in Senate races- (think Harvey Gantt). I would say that Hodes or Shea-Porter would both be effective candidates against Sununu (especially Shea-Porter- outspent 5-1 (600k to 120k [no independent expenditures, on behalf of Shea-Porter at least] when was the last time a challenger won a House race on 120k? 1974?)
George Voinovich isn't up until 2010.
Colorado and Minnesota I believe are our top targets for 08.
Gordon Smith will not switch parties- he's way too conservative (15% score from ProgressivePunch) Snowe, Collins, and Specter are the only conceivable Republican party-switchers at this point.
November 18, 2006 12:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Washington Post's The Fix has done an analysis of what they see as the most vulnerable Senate seats in 2008, which I don't entirely agree with, but then again it's way too early to forecast.
That said, if Mike Moore in Mississippi runs and Thad Cochran doesn't the Dems have an outside look at that otherwise unwinnable state.
John Cornyn may be vulnerable in another very difficult state - he's not well known and not well liked by those that know him; without a Bush on the ticket I doubt Texas will be as Republican as it has been the last couple of times but it's still tough, not least because I can't think of a strong enough Democrat to run for the seat.
I'm not convinced that Norm Coleman's as easy a pick-off in Minnesota as the more partisan Democrats would like to think: he's moderate, been a long-time fixture in state politics, a proven winner of Democrat votes and I think he handled himself well during the very difficult aftermath of Senator Wellstone's death - it was the loony left that destroyed their chances of holding that seat, not Coleman.
Pete Domenici in New Mexico is also a possible/probable retirement in 2008 - another decent chance for a pick up.
The Fix speculated that if Chuck Hagel retires, the Dem Mayor of Omaha might make the race competitive - I'm dubious, even with the much more competitive House races there this year. I'd be more inclined to view Kansas as a potential given that Pat Roberts will be 72, the growing Dem bench there and the split in the Republicans - again very difficult but not impossible.
And a couple of other Democrats are vulnerable: Mary Landrieu because she's never won easily, because who knows whether sufficient Dem strength will have returned to New Orleans and because compared to David Vitter she comes across as a pale immitation of a Senator. Max Baucus in Montana is also not home and hosed (if he runs again), especially if Congressman Rehburg competes for the seat.
November 18, 2006 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shaheen is far and away the best choice, and would be the overwhelming favorite to beat the crap out of Sununu. Shaheen ran ahead of the Dem ticket in Presidential years. She only lost by 12,000 votes, to a pedigreed Republican in a Republican year who had the help of phone jamming and other dirty tricks. And New Hampshire has beome solidly blue--trust me, to all you folks who aren't familiar with NH politics, that 80 seat swing in the NH House was tectonic, and basically signalled that voters don't want to touch anything related to the Republican name.
The most important factor is that Shaheen has earned the respect and loyalty of each of the elected Dems. She and her husband both showed up in a big way for Carol Shea-Porter, even though Carol was not the candidate she backed in the primary, for example. Indeed, I suspect Lynch announcing this so early is basically to clear the decks for Shaheen.
November 18, 2006 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is probably a good thing for NH, as Lynch is an extremely successful governor, but bad for Democrats, as Lynch would be the strongest possible nominee against Sununu.
November 18, 2006 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a resident of NH-01 and pretty polically active, I am not sure that it is accurate to say that the people moving up from MA tend Democratic. Many of them come up because there is no income or sales tax, and they have a tendency to expect all kinds of services that those taxes bought them in MA, like trash pickup (small communities up here use transfer stations - once known as "dumps", where you have to gather with your neighbors on Saturday morning to recycle and fill the compactor) etc. They tend to complain mightily about the property taxes that we use in place of the broad based taxes in MA, and they appear to vote Republican in NH, although maybe not this year.
I am not counting on NH remaining blue in 2008, I think that will take a lot of work. And the people who will make it work are the people who have been here for a while, and even some natives who don't recognize the Republican Party that was once such a fixture of NH politics. We have our job cut out for us, and I think most of us on the frontlines of NH politics recognize this. Taking nothing for granted.
November 19, 2006 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
C'mon, now, taxes aren't really all that high in Massachusetts. I think they are 36th out of 50 or so.
November 20, 2006 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink