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MT-SEN: Morning Update: Tester Clings To 1,556-Vote Lead
Some new numbers out of Montana this morning: With 96% of precincts in, Jon Tester is clinging to the narrowest of leads — 1,556 votes. Still remaining to be counted: About two-thirds of remaining ballots in Gallatin County, where Burns looks to have a slim to nonexistent lead, as well as a meager six percent of precincts in Yellowstone County, where Burns appears to be narrowly ahead. There is also one rural county, Meagher, which has not reported any ballots as of yet. In other words: We may be looking at a Montana recount. As if Virginia weren't enough.
Update: With 99% of precincts reporting, including all of Gallatin County, Tester's lead over Burns has now crept up to 1,586 votes.
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How many possible votes have yet to be counted?
Ron Byers
November 8, 2006 8:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
The county-by-county break down appears to say all the precincts are in. Did I miss something, or is the 99% instead of 100% because of absentee ballots, or what?
And what are the rules on recounts in Montana?
November 8, 2006 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
From Wikipedia: Meagher County is a county located in the U.S. state of Montana. As of 2000, the population is 1,932.
50% turnout?
Worst case 66/33 rural split for Burns... maybe +300 for Burns?
Ah, amateur math analysis... after staying up all night nervously hitting "refresh" on MT voting numbers... from California. :)
Hang in there, Montana!
November 8, 2006 8:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Total votes counted = 389376
If exactly 99% of precincts have reported, assuming same number of votes per precinct, total votes =
393309.
So remaining votes = 3933.
1586 should be safe against that, no??
November 8, 2006 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, with all but Meagher County in:
Jon Tester (DEM) 194,914 49%
Conrad Burns (REP)* 193,179 49%
There's not going to be a thousand votes from Meagher... I would say this is pretty close to over!
But you can bet my heart skipped a beat or two when:
a) The MSNBC reporter talked about how the initial results were wonky, so Yellowstone officials had to "reprogram the voting machines." Then again, I watched "Hacking Democracy" over the weekend ...
b) CNN this morning kept going on about a 50/50 tie in the Senate. Um ... Dems are LEADING in both of these races? So, 51/49 is the current trend. Thanks, CNN!
Loving Big Sky country this morning... for now. :)
November 8, 2006 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm betting CNN's Montana count was the most highly traffic'd page on the web last night.
November 8, 2006 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is the most important part of the whole election -- let's hope the democrats lawyer up and take the gloves off; don't treat it as an "oh, well, we got pretty close" moment.
November 8, 2006 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
CNN's county by county numbers look like we are now at 100% reporting for Montana. By my count, Tester has won by 1735 votes.
November 8, 2006 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just have to say that Montana has the coolest county names. Rugged, manly, outdoorsy names.
November 8, 2006 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hold the phone. Meagher County still to report.
November 8, 2006 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is from Hotline: "An aide to Sen. Conrad Burns (R) tells the Hotline this morning that Burns has no plans to concede the MT Senate race anytime soon. The aide said that 21K absentee ballots have yet to be counted and other counties still haven’t finished canvassing their regular returns. Democratic officials are confident that Jon Tester (D) will win."
November 8, 2006 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tester's lead has now increased slightly according to CNN:
As of 8:45 MST:
Tester: 195,235
Burns: 193,506
Tester Lead: 1729
Burns is holding out to have 21,000 absentee ballots counted, but he'll need to win a much bigger slice of them than he has been getting so far to pick up the necessary votes, and that assumes that no more votes trickle in for Tester, which has been happening all morning.
Tester's gone from 1,556 to 1,586 to over 1,600 to now over 1,700.
Burns looks like he should stop the vote counting NOW and get a machine re-count! Otherwise Tester's lead is only going to grow.
Perhaps the absentee ballots are why Tester hasn't claimed victory yet. Unless those ballots are primarily military or something, it doesn't look like Burns is got much hope.
November 8, 2006 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I smell a bluff here, I'd be shocked and appalled if there were still 21k absentee votes still to be counted. They are supposed to be counted as part of a precinct's reporting total and IMO would be criminal if withheld.
That said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this one ended up being in the mid 3-digits and thus within Burn's right for a recount demand.
November 8, 2006 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
If there really are 21,000 ballots out there, this could go either way. Depends on where they're from in the state.
November 8, 2006 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
From the AP:
With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Democratic challenger Jon Tester maintained a lead of about 1,700 votes over incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, the Associated Press reported.
According to election officials in several key counties, the figure included absentee ballots, but did not include provisional votes that were to be tallied later today.
A state official said the only main result outstanding was from rural Meagher County, an area that encompasses a single voting precinct and has a population of only around 2,000. Deputy county clerk Carol Anderson said the county uses a hand ballot system, and that election judges would resume counting today. She said the county expected around 750 to 850 to have voted in the Senate race.
But of course, some people have a hard time giving up the ghost:
"We need to make sure that every vote is counted. We've typically done well with absentee ballots -- let's see what happens," said Republican National Chairman Ken Mehlman.
November 8, 2006 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey! I got this pretty right! Had to swing back to this thread to toot my own horn.
Meagher County:
Conrad Burns (REP)* 552 65%
Jon Tester (DEM) 272 32%
100% of precincts reporting
65/32 ... and a difference of 280 votes!
Proud of my micro-punditry! :)
November 10, 2006 5:24 AM | Reply | Permalink