A curious noise emanates from the great Southwest (probably just the cat), the conservative blogosphere is quite sure it’s never heard of this Ted Haggard fellow, and THE BIG 3 is back to a round number! The Midterm Roundup has run out of ideas for the final sentence of its intro and there’s still 4 mornings left. Suggestions appreciated!

THE BIG 3!

(New Jersey, pack your bags – you’re out. Sorry, the Midterm Roundup gave you a fair shot, but in the end it’s decided to go in a different direction. Basically, your pilot sucked. No one liked you, no one really even responded to you. Best of luck with all your future endeavors, etc.)

MO-SEN: Talent Getting Help from Big Names

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani lent his celebrity to Senator Jim Talent (R) on Thursday, touting the senator’s record on terrorism issues like the Patriot Act and electronic surveillance. Today, Talent gets President Bush.

The Hill provides more campaign trail coverage with: Down the stretch with Talent and McCaskill. This thing is locked tighter into THE BIG 3 than any other race in the country.

TN-SEN: Is Tennessee Slipping Out of THE BIG 3?

Come on… the Midterm Roundup really doesn’t like to make changes to THE BIG 3. You have no idea how much work it is. New Jersey has made the Roundup’s life hell. Now Tennessee seems to be slipping out of the Democrats’ grasp? Give the Roundup a break already!

The NY Times’ Caucus blog thinks that Tennessee’s Tilting Red. So maybe Ford was hurt by that airport press conference storming more than we realized at the time. But man, if it turns out that “the ad” actually had even a shred of the effect the creators intended for it… well, the Roundup isn’t going out on much of a look-at-me-I’m-so-racially-sensitive limb here by saying that that would be an incredibly depressing development.

But The Fix takes a look at the latest polls, one from Zogby that has Corker up 10 and one from the DSCC that has Ford up 6 and concludes: “Again, as we have noted many times before on The Fix, polling is half science, half art. Constructing a sample that is reflective of what the Tennessee electorate will look like next Tuesday is an extremely difficult task. Polls conducted for both sides -- which are not being released publicly -- show the race essentially tied.” And the latest Rasmussen poll has the race with a 1-point margin. Tennessee, you’re staying in THE BIG 3!

VA-SEN: Wait, Who’s the Key Voting Bloc Here?

Webb, Allen Aggressively Courting Veterans in Va. Senate Race (CQ). Oh, ok, so it’s veterans. The Roundup could’ve sworn black voters were the key bloc. No wait – women voters. Isn’t it all about the women’s vote? What about wrestling fans? Gene Wilder? Nope, sorry, back to women again. Wait, wait, the Washington Times has the final answer – it’s people on the ground: Allen, Webb turn focus to ground game.

As for the airwave game, Hotline investigates rumors that George Allen is running out of airtime, which rumors the Allen campaign denies vigorously (and, obviously, blames Webb for propagating):

According to reports filed with the FEC, Webb has raised more than 3.2 million in October, compared to less than $800K for Allen. For the week ending 10/30, Webb reported to the FEC that he had raised more than $630K, while Allen collected $284K. That's lead to speculation among Democrats that Allen's campaign is nearly broke. LaCivita called the charge "bullshit;" he would not provide an exact number, citing strategic concerns.

Hmmmm…

Plus, in their latest update on the race, WaPo reports that Bill Clinton is going to be in Virginia on Election eve, side by side with Jim Webb to rally voters into a froth right before the polls open. Pretty clear sign which basket Democrats are putting their eggs in.

NJ-SEN: Please! Just Give Me a Second Chance! I’m Good, I Swear, I Can Be Better!

Yes, CQ does say you’re pretty close: “the close margins in those polls also suggest that Menendez may need to make the most of the general Democratic leanings of state voters – and the extremely difficult political atmosphere for the national Republican Party – to outlast the barrage of ethics allegations that have been fired at him for months by Kean and his GOP allies.”

But the Roundup is sorry, New Jersey, Political Wire gets the final word: In New Jersey, Menendez Moves in Front. And that Thursday night Menendez rally featuring Barack Obama probably isn’t going to make things any closer for you. Plus both the Jersey Journal and the Trenton Times have added themselves to the list of Menendez endorsers. Now please, New Jersey, get out of the Roundup’s face. You disgust the Roundup.

AZ-SEN: Hey, What’s All that Racket?

Apparently it’s Democrats realizing they might have a shot at John Kyl’s Senate seat in Arizona. This one has for some time now been sitting idly on most forecast lists right behind MO, TN, and VA, but with a significant enough drop-off in terms of vulnerability to Democratic takeover separating it from the other 3 that very few experts have considered it within reach.

But what’s this? Democratic challenger Jim Pederson is reportedly doing far better than expected in early voting returns and the DSCC has responded with a massive ad buy and a bullish press conference speech from DSCC chairman Chuck Schumer to highlight the state in the final days of the campaign. You can watch the new ad here. Hotline explains:

Why AZ? Here'a a memo from pollsters Paul Harstad and Chris Keating the DSCC will release today: “According to our October 29 to 31 survey of 745 likely Arizona voters, fully 30% of the Arizona electorate has already voted. We expect that perhaps up to two-fifths of the voters in this election will vote early or by absentee ballot. In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused. This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents.”

But not so fast. Hotline also has the NRSC’s counter-memo that says, No, Kyl Is Leading Among Early Voters.

Is the Democrats’ confidence justified, or is it more wishful than anything? TIME explains that the GOP has done a similar thing in claiming a competitive race in Michigan, which has been off the Senate race radar for some time. The GOP has also directed some focus to its underdog bid in Maryland. In other words, don’t look for AZ-SEN to be cracking into THE BIG 3 anytime soon / ever.

Plus TPM Reader DK uses the AZ-SEN noise as a jumping off point for some deeper thoughts.

CT-SEN: Where’s Joe? Getting Heckled

Ned Lamont and Alan Schlesinger debated for the final time Thursday night… without Joe Lieberman:

Connecticut Senate Rivals Are Vying for Bipartisan Appeal (NY Times)

Just The Two Of Us (Hartford Courant)

Lamont, Schlesinger say results matter (Norwich Bulletin)

Where was Joe? At a restaurant to chill out and have a beer, except he was heckled away after about 15 minutes.

More:

Liberal bloggers rip party over Lamont (Wash Times)

Failed ’04 Presidential Run Hardened Lieberman’s Independent Ways (NY Times)

If Joe wins, GOP may open its arms (NY Daily News)

Bipartisan Joe Hits False Notes (Hartford Courant columnist Rick Green)

And one more reason why Paul Newman is the coolest man alive: Paul Newman Weighs in for Lamont (AP)

MT-SEN: The Midterm Roundup is Tiring of Making Fun of Conrad Burns, It’ll Let the Professionals Take Over

The Daily Show’s midterm election coverage is assuredly second to none, but Jon Stewart doesn’t have to try all that hard when he’s got Conrad Burns for material. Check it out.

Meanwhile, as the Midterm Roundup sits around making fun of Conrad Burns until its journalistic initiative atrophies to the point of just indolently linking to other people making fun of Conrad Burns, the MT-SEN race is actually becoming a serious contest, dangerously approaching the point where the Midterm Roundup might have no choice but to add it into its BIG 3 section.

The latest polls have seen Burns close the 7-10 point gap from earlier in September and the first half of October to a virtual dead heat, though with Tester still running consistently a couple points ahead. Along with the increased ad buys in the state from both the NRSC and independent groups, President Bush was in Billings, MT Thursday to stump for Burns.

The NY Times’ Caucus blog takes a closer look at Bush’s visit, the latest ads, and the shape of the race as a whole. And the LA Times thinks In Montana, things are looking blue.

The trip to Montana was the kickoff of a 10-state tour for Bush to finish off the election season. He was also in Nevada Thursday for a rally for NV-02’s Dean Heller (R). On Friday he’ll be in Missouri for Talent, as noted above, and from there it’s off to Iowa, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Florida, Arkansas and Texas by Election Tuesday. WaPo has more on the president’s final swing.

PA-SEN: Somebody Other than Kathryn Jean Lopez Likes Rick Santorum!

It’s conservative columnist and former Reagan and Bush I speechwriter Peggy Noonan!

Meanwhile K-Lo notes a post at the Daily Pennsylvanian’s blog The Spin that describes how chilly a character Bob Casey is and the relative deference he has received from the mainstream media. Man, it’s gotta be painful to watch your hero get drubbed by a guy like Bob Casey. The Roundup is seriously almost battling with some basic human sympathy issues watching K-Lo monitor this race, similar to the moral conundrum it found itself in with Katherine Harris earlier over the summer. Don’t lose sleep over it though, the Roundup dares say it will pull through.

KY-03: Upset be Thy Name?

YARMUTH! NORTHUP! The battle for the most mellifluous name in congress rages into the final round! Political Wire notes a new SurveyUSA poll that has challenger John Yarmuth (D) up on Representative Anne Northup (R) 52%-44%. Key finding: “Registered voters of both parties are equally motivated by the pleasantness of the voiceless dental fricative found in both candidates’ names. However, the fact that Yarmuth’s name ends with such a phoneme may prove to be the deciding factor. Studies of voter behavior have shown a greater cognitive retention of end phonemes than of those occurring in the middle of a candidate’s name. 41% of Republican voters identified themselves as “put off” by the voiceless bilabial plosive at the end of Northup’s name.

NH-02: Boy, that Escalated Quickly

October 30: Hotline notes that in light of a last-minute ad buy, the NRCC might be a little worried about Representative Charlie Bass’ (R) reelection chances.

November 1: The Nashua Telegraph reports a new RI Strategies and Constituent Dynamics poll that has challenger Paul Hodes (D) in fact leading Bass, 50%-47%.

November 2: Political Wire notes a WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll (pdf) that has Hodes leading Bass by 8, 45%-37%. Key finding: “Democrats in the 2nd District are highly motivated and this is a tremendous advantage for Hodes. Among voters who say they are extremely interested in the election, Hodes leads 68% to 23%. He also leads by 50% to 37% among voters who say they will definitely vote.” Pretty head-spinning type numbers.

PA-07: Who are the Campaign Wizards who Came Up with This One?!

The Roundup realizes that Josh already covered this on TPM. You can see the actual ad if you haven’t yet over at TPMmuckraker (plus this similar one on the Weldon campaign website). But can we talk about this a little more?

All the Midterm Roundup can think of here is that old Saturday Night Live sketch about the fake game show “Stand Up and Win,” where Barry keeps buzzing in with the same answer over and over: “Who are the ad wizards who came up with this one?!”

OK, so our man is under federal investigation for bribery and corruption. This calls for a campaign strategy meeting! Come on guys, to the secret meeting room! Bob – grab the cheddar goldfish, Jim – pull out the campaign dartboard, intern – brew up the biggest, baddest cup of coffee you’ve ever brewed up. We’ve got strategizing to do!

OK, let’s see… let’s see… what have we got… Oh, wait – has he actually been proven guilty yet? No, he hasn’t! That’s something! Let’s go with that! Yeah, yeah let’s run an ad that acknowledges Curt is completely screwed and that he has lots of enemies but then begs for sympathy from his constituents. Innocent until proven guilty, right? Sure, by using a phrase like “benefit of the doubt” we’ll actually be raising doubt in otherwise possibly uninitiated or oblivious voters. But damnit, we need that benefit! In fact, I love this “benefit of the doubt” thing. Can’t get enough of it! Let’s try to hammer home the word “doubt” as hard as we possibly can in the last week here. Let’s get his wife involved. I want two ads. That’s right Bill you heard me I said TWO! We’re gonna ride this doubt all the way to reelection baby!

WY-AT-LARGE: A Lesson in Politics: Don’t Threaten to Slap People in Wheel Chairs

As Election Central noted yesterday evening, CQ has changed its rating of the race between incumbent Representative Barbara Cubin (R), challenger Gary Trauner (D), and other challenger / Cubin threat victim Libertarian Thomas Rankin from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite.

Throughout the piece CQ does not mention Cubin’s first name or title once. No idea what that means but, yeah… so there’s that…

Now that this baby is a tossup, the Midterm Roundup thought it might take a closer look, maybe scope out some ads or something. You know what they say about the silliness of the ads corresponding to the closeness of the race. And this race does not disappoint…

An ad that was run by an outside organization earlier this week (it began Sunday and was scheduled to run its course by Wednesday) attacked Cubin for taking money from lobbyists and refusing to return more than $22,000 in contributions from former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's Americans for a Republican Majority Political Action Committee. The ad, entitled “Slap,” concludes, “Barbara Cubin, that's just a slap in the face to all of us,” with a slapping sound in the background and a man seeming to scream in pain. You can view the ad here.

Both Cubin and Trauner denounced the ad and called for it to come down. Cubin’s reaction was especially keen: “That's what his whole campaign has been, is negative campaign ads and ‘I will not be negative.’ If he means it, he should ask them to take it down – especially since I didn't slap anybody, or even suggest I was going to.” The Midterm Roundup wants to believe you, Barbara, if not for the fact that you are currently in danger of losing your seat and watching Wyoming send a Democrat to the House for the first time since 1979 for pretty much the sole reason that you suggested you were going to slap a man in a wheelchair.

What about Rankin, the slap threat victim himself? “The only candidate who like the ad was Rankin. ‘Wonderful. I love it,’ he said after seeing the ad for the first time. ‘I definitely want to save that and get it around to all my friends, because that in itself is just more votes my way.’”

Oh, but it gets better folks. On Wednesday the New York Daily News ran a story with the headline Wyo. incumbent: I HATE New York! Eh, not that the Daily News doesn’t always capture the full nuance of a story in their headlines, but allow the Roundup to explain: the NRCC ran an ad attacking Gary Trauner as a “New Yorker.” The ad isn’t available for viewing, but here’s the News’ description: “‘New Yorkers march to a different drummer,’ the ad says disapprovingly. ‘Maybe that's why Gary Trauner is so out of step with Wyoming. He's from New York, not Wyoming!’ In the coup de grace, the ad shows a picture of Trauner in a suit, superimposed over busy New York City streets. Then the suit morphs into an ‘I Love NY’ T-shirt.” The ad concludes, “He might be right for New York, but he's dead wrong for Wyoming.”

OK, the Midterm Roundup won’t waste its breath explaining the problems it has with this approach, but it will at least note some facts: Trauner was born in the Catskills, not the city. He graduated from Colgate University in Hamilton, a town in upstate New York about 184 miles from the city. He has lived in Wyoming for the past 16 years.

But – oh Gahd! What’s this?!? He went to grad school at New York University! He earned a masters in business administration!!! NOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

As for Cubin, according to the Billings Gazette, she held a fundraiser in New York City in May. “Cubin's campaign paid $4,325 to the Blue Fin Restaurant on Broadway in New York City for a ‘fundraising event expense’ on May 1, according to Federal Election Commission reports.”

Anyway, what does it matter where a candidate is from? It’s about familiarity with the issues, according to Cubin spokesman Joe Milczewski: “For example, in New York City, you don't have a wolf problem. We have a big wolf problem in Wyoming.” Hm, the Roundup will concede Milczewski that one. 16 years is probably not long enough to fully understand what a wolf looks like. But the Roundup would return volley that Trauner is probably exceedingly familiar with New York’s sewer alligator problem. According to several leading scientists, alligators are bigger than wolves. Size of problem = size of animal, ergo Trauner’s ability to handle alligator problem = greater ability to handle wolf problem. QED.

EVANGELICAL GET OUT THE VOTE: Ted Haggard Update

TPM Reader DK has been all over the unfolding Ted Haggard story. Good thing, because the conservative blogosphere seems to be displaying an odd reluctance to cover the story…

As DK noted, Drudge Report did finally provide a couple links to the story, a good 24 hours after it broke, but they don’t mention Haggard’s name in either headline. The Plank’s Noam Scheiber notes that Red State and NRO haven’t covered the story much either.

Red State has one mention of Haggard’s name on their site, an item with the headline Who Is Ted Haggard? in which Dan McLaughlin says he’s never heard of the guy and then ridicules the fact that it