Conrad Burns finally launches the secret devastating attack on Jon Tester he has been saving up all year, Katherine Harris fades away and radiates, and breaking news: the Virginia Senate race is starting to get a little wild. The Midterm Roundup cannot tell you how many days are remaining until Election Day as it has lost the ability to compute numbers.

Or HAS it?

THE BIG 3.1643

(While the Midterm Roundup previously decided to include New Jersey in its “BIG 3” section based on 1) a bunch of experts’ assertions that it was as much a tossup as the other 3, and 2) the Roundup’s desire to appear non-partisan and objective by including a Dem seat; the Roundup deemed it worthy of only ½ status based on a sort of gut-level incredulity / refusal to accept that a Republican could take a state like New Jersey in the current atmosphere. That status has now been downgraded to .1643 status, according to a mind-bogglingly extensive and scrupulous scientific method the intricacies of which are assuredly way over the heads of even the most erudite of the Roundup’s readers, so it won’t even try to explain them, but simply assure everyone of the pinpoint accuracy of the .1643 measurement.)

MO-SEN: We Can All Agree, this Race is Very Close

The Kansas City Star reports on the latest poll showing Talent and McCaskill knotted at 49 all.

The two candidates were busy on the campaign trail Wednesday. Jim Talent spoke to a statewide gathering of the Missouri Baptist Convention during the day while McCaskill showed up to a packed house of supporters at the Democratic headquarters in Joplin, MO Wednesday night.

President Bush is headed to Missouri to campaign for Talent on Friday. Who will that benefit more, Talent or McCaskill?

TN-SEN: Clinton Stumps for Ford

The AP reports: “Former President Clinton told a Memphis church congregation Wednesday that if Democrat Harold Ford Jr. wins next week's U.S. Senate election, it will represent a ‘victory of going beyond race.’”

Meanwhile Bob Corker put $1.35 million of his own money into the race on Tuesday.

Plus the NY Times’ Caucus blog puts its Eye on Tennessee, specifically the Senate race’s latest ads.

VA-SEN: You Call That a Circus???

Conservative columnist Robert Novak says that Senator George Allen has let the Virginia Senate race “devolve from a serious campaign into a circus campaign,” and that, “It is much easier to dump an incumbent in a circus campaign than it is in a serious campaign.”

OK, so there was Macaca. Then there was some old N-word stuff. Then there was the Jewish stuff. Then there was some new, more concentrated N-word stuff with severed deer heads and offended little old ladies and so forth. Then there was the Webb-writes-naughty-words stuff. Then there was Allen’s divorce and police records. Then a guy was put in a headlock and thrown to the ground by Allen staffers for asking a mean question. Then Allen blamed the incident on his challenger Jim Webb, even though there is no proof whatsoever that the man who was tackled is in any way affiliated with the Webb campaign and Webb himself says he does not know the man. And then Times-Dispatch columnist Ray McAllister summed up the whole race with the headline Allen-Webb race could best be settled in 'Thunderdome.'

But where, the Midterm Roundup asks Robert Novak, is the bearded lady? Hm? Where is the bearded lady? Without a bearded lady, the Midterm Roundup totally rejects the notion that this race is a circus and that George Allen is in any danger of losing his Senate seat. Robert Novak, the Midterm Roundup challenges you to PRODUCE A BEARDED LADY. Until then, please report the facts sir.

NJ-SEN: A Glimpse into the Mind-Bogglingly Extensive and Scrupulous Scientific Method that Produced the Midterm Roundup’s .1643 Figure for NJ-SEN

The Newark Star-Ledger notes 3 new polls, all of which show Menendez leading Kean, including an Opinion Research poll conducted for CNN that has Menendez at 51%, the first time either candidate has polled above 50% all year. Unless Election Central missed any (highly unlikely, we sniff out polls like sows sniff out truffles, though probably for different reasons (it’s as yet scientifically unproven that polling data produces the same 5-alpha-androstenol pheromone that has been found to be a sexual stimulant among Election Central staffers)), Kean hasn’t led Menendez since an October 19 Zogby poll had him up 47-45, and before that you have to go back to October 4, when Strategic Vision (R) had him up 46-41.

FL-SEN: Goodbye, Katherine Harris, Good… bye…

AP: Harris hoping last debate can close gap with Nelson: “Katherine Harris, in her debate with U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson Wednesday, refused to say whether she would vote again to go to war with Iraq if she knew there were no weapons of mass destruction.”

More AP: Rep. Harris Tries to Catch Up in Debate: “Republican Rep. Katherine Harris and Democrat Bill Nelson clashed on taxes, the Iraq war and the future of Social Security Wednesday night in their final debate before next week's midterm election.”

Miami Herald: Nelson, Harris take final shots: “The Katherine Harris that Republicans once knew and adored showed up for the campaign's final debate Wednesday, poised, polished and bearing barbs that had Sen. Bill Nelson playing defense for part of the evening.”

Orlando Sentinel: Harris, Nelson turn testy in zesty debate at UCF: “U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and his opponent, Katherine Harris, sparred for the second and last time Wednesday, questioning each other's honesty, challenging each other's record and adding zest to what has been a lopsided race.”

[How dare you insult Katherine Harris like this? She has provided more zest in one hour of this campaign than the Orlando Sentinel has in its entire body, and if that statement makes no sense it is only because the Midterm Roundup is flustered with outrage.]

Sarasota Herald Tribune: Harris, Nelson challenge records in TV debate: “Sitting down to her final debate with U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, whom she trails by as many as 30 points in recent polls, U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris redefined her position on the war in Iraq while defending her plan to eliminate the IRS and her statement that voting against Christians is a vote ‘to legislate sin.’”

Tampa Tribune: Harris, Nelson Hold The Line: “U.S. Senate candidates Bill Nelson and Katherine Harris debated Iraq, taxes and social policy Wednesday night, but at times the most knowledgeable person seemed to be moderator Tim Russert.”

Bradenton Herald: Russert peppers Harris, Nelson about Iraq: “With a growing number of Americans questioning whether the war in Iraq is worth the cost of soldiers' lives, U.S. Senate candidate Katherine Harris and incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson faced the ultimate question during a live debate Wednesday night: Was the war a mistake?”

And for any who may have missed it, the Midterm Roundup applauds its colleague Justin Rood on one firecracker of a headline: HarrisWatch: The Divine Secrets of One Seriously Ya-Ya Sister.

And don’t worry, this will not be the Roundup’s final word on Katherine Harris. It has far, far more to say about her and what she has meant to the Roundup coming up in the next few days.

MT-SEN: Billings Gazette Endorses Jon Tester

“For those Montanans who are appalled at the burgeoning national debt, concerned about U.S. foreign policy, alarmed that today's spending will be paid for by our children and grandchildren and fed up with business as usual in Washington, D.C., Tester is a fresh alternative. Those who want change have an intelligent, hardworking, common-sense choice in voting for Jon Tester.”

And the Great Falls Tribune endorsed Tester this past Sunday.

Meanwhile, how is the Burns campaign doing? Slamming Tester with everything they’ve got! Including…

“Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jon Tester never had a state-required license for the butchering business he ran at his Big Sandy-area farm, but state records show an inspector visited the shop, but did not cite Tester for breaking the law.” (Billings Gazette, Sixers’ Greg Pollowitz writes, “If this is the best October surprise we can find with a week to go, hellooooo Leader Reid”)

But that’s nothing compared to this crippling, paralyzing, utterly crushing blow, from a Burns press release passively obtained by the Midterm Roundup’s gmail inbox:

The Unlicensed Hunter Jon Tester
Once Again He Is Deceiving Montanans

For months Jon Tester has assured us that he is no Chuck Schumer or Hillary Clinton when it comes to the Second Amendment. He even poses with a gun and a dog in the latest mailing and television commercial now running.

The problem? There is no record of Jon Tester ever owning a hunting license in records dating as far back as 1990. Of course, there is no need to own a hunting license to own a gun. But the only possible reason to pose for that picture is to try and fool people into believing you are someone you are not.

In the mail piece Tester says, "Dear Hunter," and concludes with "He will protect our gun rights and heritage." The hunter orange piece also has a pheasant and an elk prominently displayed on it. Clearly Jon Tester is giving the impression that he is a hunter. The problem is that he is not a hunter and not a sportsman.

"Once again, Jon Tester is deceiving Montanans," said Jason Klindt, a Burns campaign spokesman. "He is pretending to be someone he's not. If we can't trust him to tell the truth about himself, how do we know that he will vote to protect our gun rights when Chuck Schumer calls in his favors?"

One final image to emblazon on the minds of Montana voters with just 5 days to go: Jon Tester, holding a gun without owning a hunting license, when there is no need to own a hunting license to hold a gun. This is too much. First Abramoff, then Foley, now this. The Midterm Roundup apologizes, but please excuse it while it goes and vomits into the nearest container with horror and disgust.

PA-SEN: Kathryn Jean Lopez Now Fabricating Santorum Endorsements

This is awesome: Back in early September Chris Matthews had this to say about Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA): “You know, I have to tell you one thing about Santorum. He’s the genuine article for what he is, and that is a rarity, because so many of these politicians cultivate and groom themselves to be acceptable, and he doesn’t give a damn.”

A backhanded compliment at best. And keep in mind, it was made almost 2 months ago. Using that material and that material alone, K-Lo crafts the headline, Chris Matthews Puts the “Reelect Santorum” Sign on His Lawn. She starts off the piece, “Democrats Chris Matthews and Ed Rendell agree with me: Reelect Santorum.” Next sentence: “Well, that might be a wee bit of a stretch, I’ll admit.” Next sentence: “…Matthews and Rendell might want to go ahead and make the endorsement.” Further down: “Matthews may think he’s nuts on Iraq or Iran, but he’s serious, honest, fair, and smart. If you’re going to have opponents in D.C., Chris, don’t you want one like Santorum? Don’t you want the senator to keep playing Hardball?”

So to recap, Kathryn Jean Lopez states in her headline and lead sentence that Chris Matthews has endorsed Rick Santorum. Then she admits that that’s a lie. Then she suggests that Matthews consider endorsing him. Then she points out that Matthews may in fact think Santorum is nuts and considers him an opponent. And then she basically begs Matthews to endorse him. Awesome.

But here’s the really awesome thing: Rick Santorum has posted this on his website. A little hard up for endorsements there Ricky?

Here’s a story not posted on the Santorum website: Rick Santorum's Beastly Politics (The Nation).

ID-01: A Lesson in Politics: Don’t be a Douchebag

CQ changes its race rating in Idaho’s normally overwhelmingly red 1^st district from Republican Favored to Leans Republican. Why? Because Republican nominee Bill Sali is a huge jerk. Oh, and he has repeatedly asserted that getting an abortion increases a woman’s chance of getting breast cancer.

IN-09: Sodrel and Hill Hold Final Debate

The Louisville Courier-Journal reports, 9th District candidates spar in Jasper: “Candidates in the 9th Congressional District disagreed last night on the minimum wage, health insurance and Social Security in their last debate before Tuesday's election.”

NH-02: Don’t Look Now…

Remember a couple days ago when Hotline reported that the NRCC might just be a little skittish about Representative Charles Bass’s reelection prospects in New Hampshire’s 2^nd district? Well, a new poll from RI Strategies and Constituent Dynamics shows challenger Paul Hodes (D) leading Bass 50%-47%. The Concord Monitor writes, “The Evans-Novak Political Report, edited by the conservative commentator Robert Novak, last week labeled the race a toss-up that ‘leans Democratic.’ This week, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan online newsletter, placed the race somewhere between ‘lean(s) Republican’ and ‘toss-up.’” And Andrew Cline from the Union Leader tells NRO’s Kathryn Jean Lopez, “In the NH 2nd District, Republican Rep. Charlie Bass is in trouble.”

The Nashua Telegraph has endorsed Hodes. Dr. Bill Siroty, proprietor of Hotline’s New Hampshire affiliate website NHNewslinks.com, tells Hotline, “This endorsement is a relatively big deal. The Telegraph has endorsed Bass since at least 1996 until 2004.”

Just how far and fast has Bass fallen? He faced the same Paul Hodes just 2 years ago in 2004 and crushed him by 21 points, 59% to 38%.

TX-22: Dems Get a Little Cute in Effort to Throw Off GOP

The Fix has more on the tricky campaign flyer the DCCC put out in Texas’ 22^nd district, which TPMmuckraker reported on yesterday. The Fix writes, “For Democrats to win in a district like this one, they must find a way to divvy up the GOP votes -- keeping Republicans from unifying behind Sekula-Gibbs. Since neither Richardson, who hasn't even filed a report with the Federal Election Commission, or Reasbeck, who had $1,500 on hand as of Oct. 18, has the financial resources to communicate with voters, the DCCC is doing it for them.” Swanky.

JOHN KERRY: Stupid or Really, Really Smart?

The Midterm Roundup’s take on the Kerry kraziness: Stupid comment by Kerry. Even if the original spirit of the comment was justified, the way it came out was stupid. And the outrage (the wall-to-wall CNN coverage), while perhaps unjustified or disproportionate, can hardly be called surprising or out of the norm. Everyone’s favorite Democratic whipping boy made a questionable comment that could be construed as not supporting the troops – how could you expect CNN or the Republicans to handle the matter with any kind of staid measure in an environment like this? And how can you expect CNN to treat Bush’s “a Democratic win is a terrorist win” quote with equal shock or outrage when that has been a cornerstone Republican talking point for years now. It’s a sign of the GOP’s overall strategy for the past 5 years that a statement like this is, in fact, not news.

So whether or not you agree with the intent of Kerry’s comment, anything that results in this kind of blowback sort of has to necessarily be called stupid, or at the very least, ill-considered. Just providing the Republicans with the slightest window of a chance to squeeze in their message – that’s a bad move.

UNLESS of course it was all a giant psychological ploy intended to goad Republicans into overreaching in their backlash and cement in voters’ minds (as Ed Kilgore argues at the end of his piece) the overall issue of this election: the debacle that is Iraq. In which case, Kerry has just exhibited more savvy and shrewdness than the Roundup personally ever thought him capable of.

Just check out the reader reactions on CNN.com. The question posed was “Who should apologize and why?” Now of course these e-mails were hand-culled by CNN from a batch of presumably loads more, the actual breakdown of which who’s to say. So it’s not like this is presumed to be any sort of conclusive measuring tool, but anyway the Roundup performed a little study and here’s what it found: of the 42 reader e-mail comments posted, 16 are solely critical of Kerry / believe he owes an apology / thinks he’s a jerk / etc. 20 of the comments turn the attention back to Bush and say something along the lines of: in the end he’s the one who deserves the real blame for Iraq / he’s the one who owes the real apology / etc. (The remaining 6 were either sort of inscrutable or just critical of CNN itself for giving the story so much air to begin with.) So maybe there’s something to that argument – go ahead, talk about Kerry all you want, Republicans. All you’re really doing is reminding people of the overarching central issue of this election: Iraq. Again, that’s: Iraq. I… raq. And as one final reminder: Iraq. (Iraqiraqiraqiraqiraqiraqiaqiaqiaqiaqiaqaqaqaqaqaqaqaaaaaaaaaaaaq.) Kind of kills the whole “all politics is local” angle for the GOP (sincerest apologies, Tip O’Neill).

And if you need confirmation: With Election Driven by Iraq, Voters Want New Approach (NY Times)

If Kerry’s political hara-kiri (hara-Kerry, anyone? Get it? Get it??) proves ultimately to lose the GOP even a couple votes on Election Day, the Roundup reckons Kerry’s future is a sacrifice most Democrats would be willing to make in the name of 2006.

(Oh, and if we’re going to be talking about John Kerry at all, let’s not forget about John Boehner, who made a pretty questionable comment himself on The Situation Room yesterday. Josh has more, so does Hotline and Raw Story.)

IYI (If You’re Interested)

CT-04: Center Is No Longer So Safe for Connecticut Republican (NY Times)

CT-SEN: Lamont campaign laments lack of help from national Democrats (The Hill), and Lamont Needs Another Rally to Beat Lieberman a Second Time (CQ)

FL-16: Republican Seems to Rally in Run for Seat Foley Quit (NY Times)

IN –02, -08, -09: Indiana voters teeter between red, blue (Wash Times)

KS-02: Democrat Closing Gap as Race With Ryun Nears Finish Line (CQ)

MO-SEN: Campaign takes low road through crucial Missouri (The Hill)

NJ-SEN: Undecided Voters Hold Key to Senate Race in New Jersey (NY Times)

OH-18: Ney’s Troubles Keep GOP from Gaining Traction in Ohio 18 (CQ)

RI-SEN: Clawing for Votes, Chafee Steers Race Toward Gutter (WaPo)

NATIONWIDE: Republicans on the Web coy about party affiliation (The Hill)

NATIONWIDE: Stump the Candidate: Politicians Vie To Trip Up Opponents (WaPo)

NATIONWIDE: Is GOP confidence for real? (Christian Science Monitor)

NATIONWIDE: Scandals Alone Could Cost Republicans Their House Majority (WaPo)

NATIONWIDE: Campaigner in Chief Has Limited Reach (WaPo, writing that “An Unpopular President Avoids Many Key Races.”) Oh yeah? Well the AP would beg to differ: Bush back on campaign trail for GOP.

NATIONWIDE: On Election Night, Networks Plan to Proceed With Caution (WaPo – which is why the Midterm Roundup will be watching Spike TV’s ELECTION FURY ’06 Tuesday night, for the most extreme, no-holds-barred, in-your-face election coverage and analysis you can handle!)

NATIONWIDE: Can’t say they’re not giving it their all - DNC Goes Into Debt to Fund Effort to Take Over Congress (CQ), and Senate Dems outgive GOP (The Hill)

NATIONWIDE: National Journal’s Chuck Todd plays the precrimination game with The Blame Game Scenarios, taking a look at the respective fallouts under 3 different scenarios – a big Democratic win, a slight Democratic win of only the House, and a Republican hold of both chambers.

NATIONWIDE: Heading Into The Home Stretch, It's The Dems By A .... (National Journal’s Charlie Cook)