Dems Confident in MT, VA Senate Outcomes
Here's a statement just out from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on the Montana and Virginia races:
Both Jon Tester and Jim Webb have won their races in Montana and Virginia but want to make sure that every vote is counted. We expect to have official results soon but can happily declare today that Democrats have taken the majority in the U.S. Senate.
Notes on the situation and process below...
Montana Vote Situation: Jon Tester leads Conrad Burns by approximately 1,700 votes (as of 11am EDT) and counting. In Silver Bow County (Butte), a Democratic stronghold, votes are still being counted but Tester is winning there with 66% of the vote. We expect to gain the majority of these uncounted votes and to add to Tester’s margin.
Montana Process: When the counting phase is completed, a canvass will verify the vote tallies. That process could take as long as 48 hours, and must begin within three days and end within seven. Unless the canvass shows the margin to be within ¼ of 1%, there is no recount. As the loser, Burns would have to request the recount. When the votes are all counted, we expect to be outside that recount margin.
Virginia Vote Situation: Jim Webb is up by approximately 8,000 votes and once the provisional ballots are counted, we expect Webb’s margin to increase. (Please note that VA absentees were included in the tallies from last night.)
Virginia Process: A canvass is underway to verify the results and we expect that process to finish within a day or so. To be in recount, the margin needs to be less than 1% and Allen (as the loser) would have to request it. Because of Virginia voting laws, the margin would have to be much tighter than it currently is to see any change in the outcome. Given the current margins, that is highly, highly unlikely.
According to the CNN Web site, 100% of all precincts in all of Montana's counties, including Silver Bow, have reported their voters, with one exception: Meagher County has not reported any votes yet. But Meagher has only about 1500 registered voters. They went for Bush by about 600 to about 200 for Kerry last time. Even if turnout there was 100% AND unanimous for Burns, Tester's 1700 vote, pre-recount lead is impregnable.
Not sure what the DSCC means when they say votes are still being counted in Silver Bow County. According to CNN, all votes are in except those of little Meagher Co.
November 8, 2006 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Conrad Burns was holding out and claiming that there were 21,000 uncounted absentee ballots. That sounds like some kind of lie at this point.
Perhaps some of the absentee ballots need to be counted in Silver Bow county or something.
What I can't understand is why Tester hasn't had his victory speech yet? What's he waiting for? The re-count?
Doesn't he know that perceptions are everything? Bush rushed to judgment in 2000 based on incomplete results and the media immediately started treating him like the victor and Democratic efforts to count all the votes as efforts to "overturn" the election. That alone doomed Gore, no matter what the recount showed.
Tester needs to get on top and start acting like the elected Senator. Start issuing press-statements about what he intends to do, and issue a call demanding Burns concede, at least pending the result of any re-count.
In short, he needs to start acting exactly like the frigging Republicans would act if the situation were reversed. They'd be celebrating their victory and exerting maximum pressure to spin events and force the other side to back down.
If Tester then demanded a recount there would be howls of outrage about how Democrats are "sore-losers" and "needed to get over it." These vicious attacks would be combined with accusations of attempted vote fraud.
They lost, Tester won and he needs to stop being so wimpy and start acting like it! Start having his operatives kick them viciously in the nads while Tester issues press statements gently chiding his opponent for being a "attempting to thwart the will of the voters."
And smile when he says that.
November 8, 2006 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN's latest is even better than that:
Tester 198,032
Burns 194,904
Difference 3,128
November 8, 2006 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like the final numbers are in with Meagher county reporting finally (Burns won in Meagher but not enough to change the result).
The final numbers with all counties reporting according to CNN shows a solid Tester victory.
Tester 198,304
Burns 195,456
Difference 2,848
Update: All networks have now called this race for Tester. Burns is finished.
November 8, 2006 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink