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CT-SEN: Lieberman's Lead Dips Slightly In New Poll
Senator Joe Lieberman's lead over Dem Ned Lamont is down slightly, to 12 points, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll out this morning. The survey finds Lieberman leading Lamont 49%-37%, a drop from Lieberman's lead of 52%-35% in the same poll on Oct. 20. Two interesting tidbits: Despite his flamboyant debate performances, GOP candidate Alan Schlesinger remains mired at eight percent, which is bad news for Lamont. Meanwhile, Lieberman is pulling a surprising 73% of the GOP vote -- double the 37% he gets among Dem voters.
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The Q-poll is an outlier. Has been onsistently. I'm wondering if they have a Lieberman supporter there at this point.
The trend is the thing, and the more Joe opens his mouth (let alone the totally obnoxious "jingle" he's got all over the radio) the more points he loses.
Connecticut voters want change.
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November 1, 2006 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
The trend is NOT the thing: the lead is what matters - unless of course you're losing, when everything else becomes "what really matters".
Next will come: "We stood on our principles - that's what matters" and "Despite Connecticut being one of the most Democratic states in the US, losing by over 10 points is a really decent showing for our loony left candidate - and that's what matters". And even "well, it's the taking part that matters, not the winning".
Really, you can tell how badly a campaign's doing when their lackies start dismissing polls that don't tell them what they want to hear.
Your guy's going down, and thank god for that.
November 1, 2006 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
The guy that runs the Q-poll dislikes Lamont. I forget the exact beef, but it is well known in CT circles. Most Q-polls haven't even been close to any of the others. These polls won't reflect the true results anyway. Will Repubs actually go to the polls and vote in large numbers for Joe?
November 1, 2006 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt it.
I didn't realize Tom Joad was dead. Rage against the GOP machine.
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November 1, 2006 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
A Lamont camp person has posted on DKos and noted that Q-poll people have not given them the statistical breakdown of those who were called in terms of Dem-Repub-Indy percents for the last two (or more?) released results. They have asked for that, but have not been given it in return.
There are roughly 2M registered voters in CT.
Roughly: D-700K, I-900K, R-400K
Recently, as many as 86K new voters registered, on top of the 30K that did for the Dem primary (which was only open to Dems).
Today I got a mailer from Camp Joe. It was paid for by the Credit Union Legislative Action Council of CUNA (cuna.org) and shows a Pennsylvania Ave., DC address. I have gotten many more mailers from Lamont. Maybe Joe knows that I don't support his election, but it seems odd to me that with all the $$ Joe has, there are not more mailers coming in from his side.
In the Joe mailer is says "LIEberman fought George Bush's dangerous plan to privatize Social Security from the very beginning. Joe L has also been a leading voice in the effort to protect working people's savings and 401K plans."
That is pretty funny, because Joe was one of the LAST DEMS to come out against the whole SS plan. And as pointed out by Colin from the Hartford Courant, he only came out against it when it was apparent the rest of the Dem's were not going to go along. See how Joe votes Dem 90% of the time. There is documented proof he flip flopped on that issue - he was for it before he was against it!
Also, what kind of efforts are needed to "protect working people's savings"? I guess I didn't know Joe was helping me fend off this sneak attach on my savings account at the credit union. I sure better change my thinking now and vote for Joe. Where would I be without him?
November 2, 2006 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Back of envelope view
LIEberman: 70%-R, 45%-I, 35%-D -> 280+405+245=930K
Lamont: 10%-R, 50%-I, 65%-D -> 70+450+455=975K
Schlesinger: 20%-R, 5%-I, 0%-D -> 140+45+0=185K
The R number might be a little low, maybe more like 440-460K.
Indy's are the biggest block and the Q-poll shows LIEberman with more than the 45% I have allotted. Frankly, I find it hard to imagine that his numbers amoungst Indy voters is that much higher.
IMO, the Lamont ground game - GOTV - is much more agile and gung ho that those PAID volunteers that Lieberman will be hiring. I just don't see him matching Lamont efforts here. Many people here are sick of Joe's support for Iraq - no matter what the political leaning.
November 2, 2006 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink