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Cook's Final Analysis: Dems Pick Up 20-35 House Seats, 4-6 Senate Seats

Charlie Cook's final predictions are in. He sees Dems picking up 20-35 House seats and 4-6 Senate seats, and he doesn't think much of assessments which say the race for Congress is tightening:

Going into Election Day, we see a 20-35 seat gain for Democrats in the House, a four to six seat gain for Democrats in the Senate and a six to eight seat gain for Democrats in the governor's races.

All Monday there was considerable talk that the national picture had suddenly changed and that there was a significant tightening in the election. This was based in part on two national polls that showed the generic congressional ballot test having tightened to four (Pew) and six (ABC/Wash Post) points.

Seven national polls have been conducted since Wednesday, November 1. They give Democrats an average lead of 11.6 percentage points, larger than any party has had going into an Election Day in memory. Even if you knock five points off of it, it's 6.6 percentage points, bigger than the advantage that Republicans had going into 1994.

Stuart Rothenberg, meanwhile, is predicting Dem gains of 30-36 House seats and 4-7 Senate seats. We'll see who's right tomorrow.


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I'm going with +35 House, +7.99 Senate (the .99 is Lamont beats Lieberman). Call me a wild-eyed optimist, but I'm in Ohio, and I'm feeling the wave.

As to the Washington Post robocalling article, I agree with PJ. The anecdote from the voter in Charlie Brown's District (CA-04..screw you, doolittle) was key, near the beginning of the article.

It would be nice if it was on the front page. When we start getting these kind of articles on the front page in a timely fashion is when the GOP will stop trying this stuff.

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My prediction: 4-5 Senate seats (OH, PA, MT, RI, and maybe either VA or MO) and 20 House seats.
The GOP still has a dirty trick or two up its sleeve I'm sure and I prefer to be pleasantly surprised

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Well, just got back from voting and looks like I was right about the dirty tricks! I'm in the 22nd Congressional district in FL (Shaw vs Klein) and guess what-- that race was not even on the ballot (no House race was at all). Poll workers were unable to correct the problem, at least not while I was there. Anybody who has any connections to the Democrat party in FL should spread the news about this: voters in the Fort Lauderdale 114th precinct cannot vote for congressman, neither Shaw nor Klein.

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Did you inform Josh, DK, or Justin at Muckraker?

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