The instant pundit wisdom is in on Bill Frist's decision not to run for President, and it holds that the move is most beneficial to Mitt Romney, the Boston Globe reports. The decision "relieves Romney of a potentially formidable rival for the Christian conservative vote, particularly in the South," the paper says. "Romney, who has aggressively courted Christian conservatives, is now poised to become a strong contender among a constituency typically skeptical of Northeastern candidates -- especially one from the liberal Bay State, analysts said."

As conservative activist Gary Bauer tells the paper: "I think conservatives generally, not just Christians, are searching for that candidate that can compete on the same level as McCain and Giuliani." According to the Globe, that candidate may well be Romney.

Here at Election Central, we're right on top of the news as it happens, so we thought we should bring you word that right now, as you read, a marching band is playing the song "Livin' on a Prayer" at the event where Tom Vilsack is preparing to announce his Presidential run. That strikes us as a pretty bad choice, given the message it sends about Vilsack's chances. If you're interested in seeing the announcement, it's on C-Span right now.

Update: Now that's more like it. The band is now playing "Celebration."

Is there any chance Al Gore might jump into the race, despite recent denials? James Carville thinks so — indeed, he is predicting flatly that Gore is definitely in. According to The Hotline, Carville appeared the American Democracy Conference and gave a talk which included this:

"We're going to have five larger-than-life candidates running for President. McCain, Giuliani, Hillary Clinton, Obama and Al Gore. And you want to make it interesting, you might have Newt Gingrich in it."

Carville also offered an interesting take on the GOP primary:

"There is no clear Republican frontrunner," which Carville calls an historical anomaly. Not since 1940 has the Republican Party not annointed its standardbearer years in advance. Republicans, Carville said, aren't used to divisive, competitive primaries.

This is one of the rankest displays of journalistic dishonesty I've seen in some time. In today's Washington Post column, George Will assails Dem Senator-elect Jim Webb over his now-well-known confrontation with President Bush at a White House reception. To do so, Will badly distorts the reporting his own paper did on the episode, and it's quite clear his distortions were entirely deliberate.

First, let's check out how Will recounts the episode in his column.

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Dem Larry Kissell conceded defeat yesterday to Rep. Robin Hayes after the first phase of a recount showed that the outcome was unlikely to change, the Associated Press reports. Hayes prevailed by only 329 votes, the AP says, adding that the super-tight margin prompted Kissell to announce that "he was starting his 2008 congressional bid immediately."

Democrats are taking note of an extraordinary dynamic in Iowa as the Presidential race begins: A Dem might be able to grab a victory of sorts in the caucuses with a very low percentage of the vote, perhaps even one in the low 20s. CBS News reports that such an outcome is made possible by the wide open field of big personalities (Obama, Clinton) who will grab big chunks of the vote that could leave the victor with something well short of a majority.

Perhaps most important, the presence of Iowan Tom Vilsack in the race could allow someone coming in a strong second behind Vilsack to be viewed as the real winner. "A candidate who comes in second could well be considered the 'relative winner' against a native son," one Dem tells CBS.

It's also worth noting that Vilsack's presence isn't exactly deterring any of the other Democrats for hunting up support and money in his home state. Nobody appears to be deferring to Vilsack in the same way Democratic candidates did for Tom Harkin's Presidential bid in 1992.

Chuck Todd has just weighed in with a few thoughts about the Dem primary, and he's bucking the instant pundit wisdom which has it that Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Todd gives a bunch of reasons explaining "just how difficult her path to the Democratic nomination really is."

Short version: (1) Too few Dem activists have real political passion for her, as opposed to the feelings they have for Barack Obama or Bill Clinton. (2) She's a woman; Iowa voters won't elect a woman President, and she'll have a tough time in the midwest in general. (3) She's a hawk and the criticism from her opponents of her position on Iraq could sink her with Dem primary voters.

And then, most counterintuitively, the biggest reason of all: President Bush. "Welcome to what I believe is the single biggest problem for Clinton," Todd writes. "It's Bush, America's second `legacy' president. It's not that any Democratic voter will believe she will be like the younger Bush as president -- it's that Democrats may want to break the cycle of Bush, Clinton, Bush and Clinton."

Todd's full analysis here.

Update: MSNBC has posted a comparison of the stances on various issues held by Hillary and Barack Obama. It concludes that there's a "remarkable concurrence" between them on their votes, and describes them as "ideological peas in a pod." Except, of course, on Iraq.

Tom Vilsack will officially announce his Presidential run tomorrow at 10:30 A.M. at Iowa Wesleyan College, according to a press release just sent out by C-Span, which will carry the event live. You can also watch it streamed online at www.c-span.org. We thought Vilsack was already the only official candidate in the race -- after all, he's already got a website which says he's running for "President" in "2008." Maybe tomorrow he'll be making it officially official.

"I am a very, very strong advocate of Rudolph Giuliani being the Republican candidate."

-- Dem Rep. Charles Rangel, after being asked by Newsday if he would support Hillary Clinton for President

Yesterday Election Central brought you the news that leaders of the Christian right were assailing Evangelical superstar Rick Warren for inviting the pro-choice Barack Obama to appear at Warren's Saddleback Valley Community Church. Today, Warren and Saddleback have responded in a statement to the roar of criticism, and they are defending Obama's appearance. Key quote:

While knowledgeable about HIV/AIDS, the speakers at the Summit do not necessarily reflect the beliefs of Saddleback Church, its pastoral leadership or the congregation. As a result, we're not making an endorsement of Obama or any of the other speakers. Rather by coming to Saddleback, the Summit speakers are affirming and supporting the vital role of the Church in fighting the pandemic of HIV/AIDS.

In fact, the following disclaimer is printed at the front of the Summit syllabus: "We do not endorse everything every speaker might say. With nearly 60 speakers representing different backgrounds and expertise, you'll undoubtedly hear statements you disagree with. We will, too. Each speaker represents himself or herself, not Saddleback Church or the Purpose Driven Network."

Obama was invited to share his views on AIDS, not abortion or any other issue. And he is not speaking to the Saddleback congregation, but rather to a conference comprised of ministry leaders, social workers and health professionals all gathered to focus on this one topic – the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Let it be made very clear that Pastor Warren and Saddleback Church completely disagree with Obama's views on abortion and other positions he has taken, and have told him so in a public meeting on Capitol Hill.

Meanwhile, the battle has gone national, with the Associated Press picking up on the story. It isn't going away.

Mitt Romney continues to staff up his campaign with operatives drawn from deep with the D.C. Republican establishment. Today's Roll Call reports that Romney has hired Kevin Madden, a former adviser to John Boehner and Tom DeLay, as a spokesman and communications strategist for his nascent Presidential campaign. Romney has also enlisted two of President Bush's economic advisers, Glenn Hubbard and Greg Mankiw, according to the Washington Post.

If you thought Obama's last name was enough of a political pitfall, get this: Last night on Hardball, GOP strategist Ed Rogers ridiculed a potential Obama candidacy by using — possibly for the first time on cable news — Obama's little-known and politically unfortunate middle name. "Count me down as somebody that underestimates Barack Hussein Obama," Rogers said. Expect to hear this sort of thing again and again if Obama runs for President. To watch the video, click here. (Special thanks to Crooks and Liars.)

Bill Frist speaks to the Wall Street Journal about why he isn't running for President:

In an interview, Frist said he wanted a “sabbatical from public life,” suggesting he could very well return to politics in the future. But the 54-year-old heart surgeon-turned-politician said he needs time now to reconnect with himself before plunging into the presidential race. “Starting fund-raising for a presidential race in January really doesn’t leave time to re-energize and be myself, a self stripped away a little by being majority leader. I really do need to re-energize in terms of who Bill Frist is,” he said.

“It’s a tough decision that I thought a lot about but in the final analysis, for right now, it doesn’t feel right inside,” Frist said. “There’s that little bit of hesitation, and I’m afraid that hesitation will come across as a lack of passion.”

The happiest man in America today: Michael Schiavo.

Today’s New York Times reports that Richard Collins, organizer of the group STOP HER NOW—an advocacy group dedicated to opposing Hilary Clinton—has found his candidate in 08.  Collins has donated $10,000 to Rudy Giuiliani’s PAC over the last two years.  According to their website, “STOP HER NOW is an organization of concerned citizens that is dedicated to spreading the TRUTH about Hillary Clinton and her dangerous ideas and plans for our country.”  The group was originally set up to oppose Clinton’s 06 senate run, but following Pirro and eventually Spencer’s defeat, they seem to be gearing up for 08.  They add, “We need you to help us finance a massive media blitz and public education campaign...” At least we now know where all that money is going.

"I've decided I am going to run" for President, Joe Biden says in a taped interview scheduled to air tonight on Boston's NECN-TV, according to the Boston Globe. Biden made a similar comment to ABC News earlier this month.

In the Boston interview, interestingly, Biden also says he'd be surprised if Barack Obama seeks the Presidency, the Globe reports. Biden previously suggested he might run on CBS' Face The Nation in 2005, saying: "If, in fact, I think that I have a clear shot at winning the nomination by this November or December, then I'm going to seek the nomination."

Meanwhile, Senator Bill Frist has now ruled out a run for the Presidency. His formal announcement is set for 1 P.M. today.

Sen. Joseph Biden solidified his intention to run for president in 2008 in an interview to air tonight. The Boston Globe reports that in a taped interview at NECN studios in Boston, Biden told interviewer Chet Curtis that "I am going to run" for president. Biden had previously indicated that he would run on CBS' "Face The Nation" in 2005, saying "if, in fact, I think that I have a clear shot at winning the nomination by this November or December, then I'm going to seek the nomination."

Apparently the Delaware Senator now believes he has that shot.

Despite catching grief for holding a book signing at a Barnes and Noble, John Edwards it at it again, this time in Iowa, the De Moines Register reports that Edwards is scheduled to appear at a local Barnes and Noble to sign copies of his new book “Home: The Blueprints of Our Lives.”  In 2004, Edwards finished second in the all important Iowa caucus, and says he is “very seriously considering” running again.

As Barack Obama weighs a Presidential run, here's something else that Barack Obama is likely to take as a sign that his moment is now and that his message is resonating across the country: His book, The Audacity of Hope, has climbed to number one on the New York Times's hardcover nonfiction best sellers list -- topping John Grisham and Bill O'Reilly.

Note that his book has been on the list five weeks now. Jim Jordan, a former adviser to presidential candidate John Kerry, comments to the Chicago Tribune: "That's pretty stunning, boggling really. The fact that so many people are willing to plunk down 30 bucks to access his thoughts, ideas and political philosophy is pretty impressive."

The Trib also reports that Obama will appear this Friday on Jay Leno's Tonight Show.

Tom Vilsack, the only officially declared candidate in the 2008 Presidential race, will spend tomorrow and Friday campaigning in New Hampshire, the Manchester Union Leader reports. According to the paper, "Vilsack on Friday will make Concord stops at the New Hampshire Technical Institute, the State House and Concord High School, then at GT Solar Inc., in Merrimack before returning to Concord for a reception at the home of supporter Gary Hirshberg, the CEO of yogurt maker Stonyfield Farms." As Election Central reported yesterday, Barack Obama is trekking to New Hampshire in December. We're off and running.

Draft Obama -- a group which bills itself as a grassroots organization of Obama enthusiasts urging the Illinois junior Senator to jump into the Presidential race -- announced its official launch this morning. According to the group's press release, the organization was founded by Maryland computer technician Ben Stanfield, who bought the website domain name "draftobama.org" after seeing Obama speak at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. "Draft Obama now has volunteers in 37 states and expects to hit the 50-state mark this week," the group's release claims. The group's site is here. Its online petition to draft Obama is here.

John Edwards had hoped that his book signing in New Hampshire last night would be a controversy-free visit to an early primary state, but instead his visit earned him a pummeling at the hands of the Manchester Union Leader. The paper teed off on Edwards in an editorial for...holding his book signing at a Barnes & Noble. Why? It turns out that the bookstore pays lower wages than a nearby Wal-Mart, the chain which Edwards has been boycotting:

The Barnes & Noble where Edwards will hawk his book pays $7 an hour to start. The Wal-Mart that sits just yards away pays $7.50 an hour.

Oh, the humanity!

From 7 to 8 p.m., Edwards will bring business to a retailer that pays wages he thinks are so immorally low that they should be illegal. Meanwhile, right behind him, thousands of Granite Staters will be supporting a business that pays an Edwards-approved starting wage, but which Edwards wants everyone to boycott.

It's not easy to run for President.

Are the Iraq-War critics who compare the conflict to the Vietnam War correct? John McCain — in a comment overlooked by the blogosphere — said just that a few days ago in a forum at HotSoup.com that asked, "What lessons did we learn during the Vietnam War that are applicable in Iraq today?" McCain went even further by praising anti-Administration books. Key quote:

I also think a clear commitment to victory [is needed]. That is, I think, embodied in some degree by the sometimes-debunked Powell Doctrine. If you’re going to go in, you go in and do what’s necessary to win. And if you’re not going to do that, then don’t go. The consequences of failure are obviously greater than never having gone at all. The best example of that is now well chronicled in many books – ranging from Cobra II to Fiasco to Woodward’s latest, State of Denial.

...

We learned the lessons of Vietnam, and we employed those lessons in the first Gulf War and other minor engagements. We seem to have forgotten them in the conduct of this conflict and it’s costing us an enormous amount – not just in Iraq but all over the world.

The South Carolina primary, which effectively ended John McCain's 2000 Presidential hopes amid a vicious battle with George W. Bush, is already shaping up to be another no-holds-barred contest for McCain -- only this time, his prime opponent may well be Mitt Romney. The State reports that McCain and Romney have already begun hiring South Carolina operatives in preparation for a race that many local pols are expecting will rival the viciousness of the 2,000 slaughterfest:

A lot of the campaign folks who participated in that 2000 brawl are back...

Richard Quinn and Associates, a top-rated political consulting firm based in Columbia, has signed up with McCain.

Warren Tompkins, who heads one of the state’s premier consulting firms, will serve as a senior adviser to the presidential campaign of Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. “I feel very comfortable” with the Romney decision, Tompkins said.

All public opinion surveys to date show McCain the clear favorite among S.C. Republicans.

Tompkins, though, strongly suggested that will change once primary voters begin a closer examination of the presidential prospects. Once that occurs, he predicts, former McCain backers will start to peel away from the senator.

In a state whose primary last time included rumors that McCain fathered a black child out of wedlock, it's likely that this Romney aide's promise of a "closer examination of the presidential prospects" should be read to mean, "get ready for another slimefest." The GOP primary is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 2.

Wes Clark, whose last Presidential bid flopped after he rushed into the race too late to mount a serious campaign, is promising he won't make the same mistake again. Sort of. "I think it was clear that I got in too late last time," Clark says in an interview with the Associated Press. "I didn't have a campaign manager until the end of November. I had no money. I had no strategy when I started.... It's one of several mistakes that if I were to run that I would hope I wouldn't repeat."

So you'd expect that Clark will announce his decision on whether he'll run again in the very near future, right? Well, not really: "I don't deal with timelines," Clark said.

Chuck Schumer stopped by the offices of the New York Daily News today for a chat with the paper's editorial board. News writer Ben Smith shares a few choice Schumer quotes from the private meeting on his Daily Politics blog:

"We're in better shape than [Republicans] are, because they don't realize that Reaganomics is dead, that the Reagan philosophy is dead," he said. "We realize that New Deal democracy, which is still our paradigm, which is sort of appeal to each group ... that doesn't work any more."

He had said a bit earlier, "The old Reagan theory which dominated -- which is, 'Government is bad, it's out of touch, chop off its hands as soon as it moves.' -- is over."

Senator Barack Obama is working overtime to court Dems in the important primary state of New Hampshire -- and it looks as if his courtship is paying off. CNN's political ticker reports that Obama will be the only Presidential hopeful to speak at the New Hampshire Democratic Party's midterm victory celebration on Dec. 10. Obama's not being too shy about his efforts to woo New Hampshire Dems: He scored the exclusive invite after calling the state party chair to congratulate the party for its midterm victories.

Update: The Associated Press's story is now up; it describes Obama's trip as one of his "first forays into an early-voting state."

Tom Vilsack may currently be lagging towards the back of the Democratic field, but he's successfully reeling in some very prominent fundraisers outside of his home state of Iowa. The Des Moines Register reports that Vilsack has just won the support of Gary Hirshberg, president of the yogurt maker Stonyfield Farm and an influential Democratic moneyman in New Hampshire. Hirshberg will host a fundraiser for Vilsack this Thursday, telling the Register: "Clearly, the principal question is: Can he raise the money to be a player? I'm going to do what I can to try to help him to cross that threshold."

Vilsack is also getting an early fundraising boost from Chicago banker and former top John Kerry fundraiser Lou Susman, who is still weighing his choice between Vilsack and Barack Obama.

Barack Obama's efforts to reach out to evanglical Christians in preparation for his possible Presidential campaign is running into very stiff resistance from the Christian right. As the Chicago Tribune reported recently, Obama is set to attend a huge evangelical gathering in California on Dec. 1, at the invitation of megachurch Pastor Rick Warren, the evangelical superstar who wrote The Purpose-Driven Life. Analysts have interpreted Obama's scheduled appearance as a sign he's working much harder than Dems ordinarily do to win over Evangelicals.

But the appearance is now provoking an intense backlash from leaders of the Christian right. They are calling on Warren to disinvite Obama from the event because of his liberal positions, especially abortion rights — or as one of those leaders put it, Obama's support of "the murder of babies in the womb." More after the jump.

Update: Warren has responded in a statement.

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As Election Central reported yesterday, potential GOP Presidential candidate Newt Gingrich is hard at work trying to out-hawk John McCain by suggesting that our new prescription for success in Iraq should be "victory or death." Now Gingrich has done it again: He's told an audience of power brokers in the key primary state of New Hampshire that we should be re-examining free speech in the age of terrorism, lest we "lose a city" to the terror threat. From the Manchester Union Leader:

Incidentally, anyone wanting to know whether Gingrich will run for President will have to wait nearly a year to find out. In a pre-speech interview with the Union Leader, Gingrich revealed that he won't make a decision about running until September 2007.

So "Mean Jean" has pulled it out, after all, putting an end to one of the last undecided House races of 2006. Dem candidate Victoria Wulsin has conceded the race to GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt, local 9 News TV is reporting. Wulsin's concession ends what was a protracted and surprisingly tight 51-49 race in a usually solid GOP district. "Wulsin has called a noon news conference at her medical office in Walnut Hills," according to 9 News.

In the aftermath of the midterm election, the approval rating of Karl Rove, the "architect" of the drubbing suffered by the GOP, has dipped below 20 percent. A new Gallup poll out today finds that Rove's approval rating has slipped to 19 percent, down three points from 22 percent in July -- a downturn that Gallup describes as "essentially no change." Says Gallup: "Given Rove's political image as the architect of the Republican Party's victories of the last six years, it would stand to reason that he might now be singled out for blame over the GOP losses in this past election. But the data show otherwise, at least based on this favorability measure." While Rove's approval rating held steady among Republicans at 45 percent, only 14 percent of independents and seven percent of Democrats have a favorable view of Rove. Full poll here.

Just what exactly is Newt Gingrich's game plan as he tests the waters for a White House campaign? His latest column in Human Events suggests he may be trying to out-hawk John McCain, who's called for additional troops to be sent to Iraq, for the designation of über-hawk in preparation for a possible GOP primary. Gingrich pre-emptively criticizes the Baker-Hamilton Commission, then goes on to bring up the fact that things looked grim for George Washington during the American Revolution, too. He then asks:

Imagine there had been a Baker-Hamilton Commission — the group charged with assessing our options in Iraq — advising Washington that cold Christmas Eve. What "practical, realistic" advice would they have given him?

Gingrich also invokes the password famously used by Washington and his men as a prescription for success in Iraq: "Victory or death." And just in case you were wondering whether he's serious, Gingrich ends the piece by promoting an upcoming book-tour appearance: "I will be in the 'Live Free or Die' state of New Hampshire today and tomorrow talking about, among other things, my new book, Rediscovering God in America."

Senator Richard Durbin is calling on his supporters to urge fellow Illinios Senator Barack Obama to run for President in an email Durbin sent out to his backers:

"In all my years in politics, I have only met one other person who connects with people as well as Barack does: former President Bill Clinton," Durbin, an influential player in Democratic politics, wrote in an email urging them to sign an on-line petition. "That says a lot about Barack's superior skills as a politician and a leader. I have complete confidence that Barack will be able to unite Americans across our country in support of a new agenda of hope."

GOP Rep. Richard Pombo — who suffered a stunning defeat at the hands of Dem Jerry McNerney — might run again for his old seat in 2008, Roll Call reports (paid subscription required). Pombo lost re-election in a normally solid Republican district largely due to ethics scandals, so McNerney could be vulnerable against a strong GOP challenger next time around. At 45 years old, Pombo might be too young to be satisfied should that candidate be someone other than himself.

Peter Brown, the polling director for Quinnipiac University, was just on MSNBC explaining the results of today's new Q-poll finding that Rudy Giuliani is the most popular politican in America as follows:

Well, I think because, he was America's Mayor. After 9/11, Americans know him as the man who stood up to the terrorists, at least rhetorically.

So now the Rudy myth has transmogrified: He's no longer just the leader who showed Churchillian resolve after the attacks; he actually stood up to the terrrorists. Rhetorically, that is.

GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce has won reelection to the House of Representatives, but her margin of victory was so slim that it will trigger a recount, the Associated Press is reporting. Pryce got 50.2 percent of the vote over 49.8 for Dem Mary Jo Kilroy -- and a recount is automatically triggered if the difference between the two candidates is under one-half of one percent. Though a Pryce spokesman claims to be confident that a recount won't alter the result, a Kilroy adviser claims he's "very happy" that a recount is mandated. Pryce is a seven-term incumbent whose lead evaporated amid the Mark Foley scandal after it emerged that Pryce had publicly fingered Foley as one of her best friends in Washington.

There are worse positions to be in when contemplating a run for President than the one Rudy Giuliani finds himself in: It just so happens that he is the most popular political figure in America, a new Quinnipiac Poll out today finds. His second-place rival? Barack Obama. The survey asked voters to rate their feelings about different national political figures on a scale of 0 to 100, with the released figures giving the average score for each politician. Some key results:

Rudy Giuliani: An average popularity rating of 64.2, with only 9% not knowing enough to form an opinion.

Barack Obama: 58.8, though a whopping 41% of Americans are not yet even able to form an opinion about him.

John McCain: 57.7, with 12% unable to form an opinion.

Condoleeza Rice: 56.1, with 7% unable to form an opinion.

Bill Clinton: 55.8, with a mere 1% unable to form an opinion.

John Kerry: 39.6, with 5% having no opinion.

The Boston Globe has a convincing piece today laying out all the ways Mitt Romney is fashioning his likely Presidential bid on that of Ronald Reagan. The Globe reports that Romney has not only positioned himself as a similar personality to Reagan — a handsome, charismatic conservative governor of a Democratic state — but is also lifting themes directly from Reagan's speeches:

Consider the acceptance speech Reagan gave in July 1980 after he won the Republican nomination for president.

"Never before in our history have Americans been called upon to face three grave threats to our very existence," Reagan said, warning that the United States was spending beyond its means, facing unprecedented danger from Soviet communism, and maintaining an unhealthy dependence on foreign oil.

And yet, Reagan voiced optimism: "There are no words to express the extraordinary strength and character of this breed of people we call Americans."

Compare those remarks with Romney's in July of this year, at a GOP luncheon in Ames, Iowa.

"We're under attack from jihadists, we're spending way too much money — way more money than we're taking in — [and] we're using way too much oil," Romney said, asserting that the American people were up to the test. "We face some real challenges ... but we will rise to the occasion, as we always do."

He added, "I love America and what it stands for. I will fight for it, as you will."

The Globe notes that Romney is hardly the only candidate reaching for the mantle of Reagan, but says that his looks and ability to give stirring speeches make him a leading contender for the part. The paper's full analysis here.

The boomlet of speculation last week about Mitt Romney's Presidential hopes has earned him what all prospective Presidential candidates yearn for: A pair of articles in this week's editions of the nation's leading newsweeklies, Newsweek and Time. But you can bet that Romney wasn't overly thrilled with the treatment he received from them. The most interesting thing from the two pieces is a nugget of news at the end of the Time piece to the effect that Romney's advisers are trying to figure out whether to address the potential liability of Romney's Mormonism head-on:

Romney advisers are debating whether he will need to give a big speech in the tradition of John F. Kennedy, who told Protestant church leaders in Houston 46 years ago that he was "not the Catholic candidate for President" but instead was "the Democratic Party's candidate for President, who happens also to be Catholic."

The rest of the Time piece runs through all the usual stuff you hear about how Evangelical Christians won't vote for a Mormon. Meanwile, Newsweek offers a scathing look at Romney's efforts to ride his opposition to gay marriage into the White House, concluding that it's "a strategy that won't get him very far."

In today's Philadelphia Inquirer, political analyst Dick Polman lays out four reasons why he thinks that contrary to pundit wisdom, Hillary Clinton can indeed be elected President. Short version: The 2006 Dem rout of the GOP has opened up the electoral map, making the magic number of 270 electoral votes more within reach for a Dem; the independent "centrist" voters who swung to the Dems in 2006 would be receptive to what Polman describes as Hillary's "moderate course during her Senate stint"; the Clinton scandals are a decade old and have been too hashed out already to stick again; and her "Ice Queen" image is actually an asset, because "the '08 election will be about choosing the next leader in the global war on terror." Polman's full argument is here. Via Just Hillary.

In his column today, Robert Novak reports that John McCain's advisers say it's now "certain" that he'll compete in Iowa, the state he bypassed during his Presidential primary challenge to George W. Bush in 2000:

The sign that McCain is aiming for Iowa came when his political action committee hired Terry Nelson, political director for Bush's 2004 campaign. An Iowan, Nelson knows the state well. That points to an early showdown in Iowa between McCain and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who has built a grass-roots organization there.

Of course, Novak has a small stake in pushing the idea that McCain will compete in Iowa. A few days ago Novak wrote another column with some unsolicited advice for McCain: Compete in Iowa, or lose. "If McCain were to skip Iowa and then lose to, or narrowly defeat, Romney in New Hampshire," Novak wrote then, "he would then risk being shut out through the Southern states' presidential primaries, nearly putting him out of contention."

So it looks as if Mitt Romney may soon have some competition for the designation of "real" conservative in the Presidential race. Today Kansas Senator Sam Brownback told George Stephanopoulos on ABC that he's moving ever closer to a White House bid: "I think there is room, on the Republican side, for somebody that's a full-scale conservative, that's an economic and fiscal and social conservative," Brownback said.

Romney has been laboring to make the case that he's the only true conservative alternative to John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. But as Election Central reported recently, a recent poll found that 53% of Evangelican Christians won't vote for a Mormon like Romney. What's more, as we've also noted here, there's some troubling evidence of social liberalism lurking in Romney's past: His mother ran for office as a pro-choice candidate 36 years ago and Romney himself has on occasion made friendly overtures to gay groups, facts which are apparently glaring liabilities for anyone hoping to win over social conservatives. Brownback is promising an announcement any day now.