A commenter below has a very good catch: He notes that John McCain's current call for more troops to be sent to Iraq is more than a little disingenous, because it turns out that nearly a year ago, McCain told Tim Russert on Meet the Press that the sending of more troops is "not going to happen." McCain suggested it wasn't going to happen due to the strain placed on the military by the current troop levels there. More after the jump.

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From an Op-ed piece by John McCain in the Manchester Union Leader:

We must be honest about the war in Iraq. Without additional combat forces we will not win. We must clear and hold insurgent strongholds, provide security for rebuilding local institutions and economies, arrest sectarian violence in Baghdad and disarm Sunni and Shia militias, train the Iraqi army, and embed American personnel in weak and often corrupt Iraqi police units. We need to do all these things if we are to succeed. And we will need more troops to do them.

It's worth noting just how tightly McCain is tying himself to this extremely risky political gamble. More after the jump.

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Three states are gaining ground in their efforts to move up their Presidential primaries -- moves which could bestow big benefits on well-funded Presidential candidates like Hillary Clinton, today's Boston Globe reports:

Political leaders in California, Florida, and Michigan are gaining momentum in their efforts to move up the 2008 presidential primaries in their states to shortly after New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary, which could lead some candidates to focus less attention on the Granite State and trigger a dramatic increase in the cost of early campaigning.

The three states are not expected to trump a New Hampshire law that requires it to hold the nation's first primary one week before any other state. But political leaders in the three states have indicated they want to move up their primary dates as close as possible to New Hampshire's vote, tentatively scheduled for Jan. 22.

That has alarmed Democratic Party leaders, who have worked to protect New Hampshire's prominence and provide powerful roles for early caucuses in Iowa and Nevada, and the nation's second primary, in South Carolina...

Campaigning in California, Florida, and Michigan, by contrast, would be extraordinarily expensive, which could benefit well-financed front-runners such as Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona and Democratic Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. That is a sensitive topic at the DNC, which is chaired by Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor and presidential contender who sought the 2004 nomination with a grass-roots effort.

The argument for moving up those primaries is that these states have a size and diversity which provide an early and realistic test of candidates. But the DNC, which is concerned that "frontloading" the primaries with big state contests could work against lesser-funded candidates, prefers a different approach.

The DNC wants to offset the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire by giving prominence to Nevada and South Carolina as counterweights -- states far cheaper to campaign in than Florida, California, or Michigan. DNC leaders will be hashing out the issue in December, partly by considering an approach which would award states agreeing to hold later primaries with "bonus delegates." Read the Globe's full rundown here. Via the Just Hillary blog.

Mitt Romney's Presidential run may be unpopular with Evangelical Christians who say they won't vote for a Mormon, but the idea of a Mormon running for the White House has now been deemed acceptable by one of the religious right's most influential figures: Jerry Falwell. The Associated Press reports that Romney had a meeting last month with a Who's Who of the Christian Right: Falwell, Franklin Graham, Lou Sheldon and others. Falwell told the AP that Romney's Mormonism would be a non-issue, saying: "Where he goes to church will not be a factor; how he lives his life will be." Romney has good reason to talk early with the religious right's leading figures; a recent poll showed that over half of Evangelicals say they won't vote for a Mormon.

Today's New York Times business section has an interesting rundown on the balancing act awaiting Dem Senator Chris Dodd as he prepares to take over as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and readies a possible Presidential run:

"Does he become a populist champion on issues that broadly affect the middle class” asked Travis B. Plunkett, the legislative director of the Consumer Federation of America, “or does he shrink from controversial issues that offend huge donors?"

It is a question facing not only Mr. Dodd, but the Democratic Party more generally as it assumes control of Congress.

The article has a good summary of all the things big corporations (who are also big donors) will be hoping to win from Dodd, goals that could conflict with the Democratic Party's promise to use its majority to bring relief to the broad middle class. It notes that Dodd is adept at playing both sides: While he has a "reputation for using his skills as a legislative deal maker to benefit many of America’s most powerful corporate interests," he's also "worked closely with consumer groups to battle the large banks and credit card companies in their ultimately successful attempt to overhaul the bankruptcy system." How Dodd balances the competing forces will define his chairmanship and possibly his potential Presidential run -- and more broadly will help define the Dems' tenure on economic issues, too. The full article is here.

The Associated Press has produced a quick and handy guide to the positions on Iraq held by all potential 2008 Presidential candidates. Here are the positions held by the two frontrunners, Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton:

JOHN McCAIN: The Arizona senator has warned that any pullout of troops could be disastrous. Instead, he has pushed the president to send in a heavy wave of troops to quell the violence and establish order. He has been public in his criticism of how the war has been run, but not the goals. During an exchange with Abizaid, McCain said: "I regret deeply that you seem to think that the status quo and the rate of progress we're making is acceptable. I think most Americans do not."

HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON: She also voted in 2002 to authorize the use of military force and has refused to recant her vote. But the New York senator has been a vocal critic of the way the war has been conducted, voting in June for the Levin-Reed amendment on a phased withdrawal. "Our country desperately needs a foreign policy based on bipartisan consensus and executed with nonpartisan competence," Clinton has said. At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing Nov. 15, she quizzed Gen. John Abizaid, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East, about dividing the country along ethnic lines.

Check out the positions of all the rest of the candidates after the jump.

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Potential Dem Presidential nominee John Edwards is trailing in matchups against potential GOP rivals Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll. It finds Giuliani ahead of Edwards 50%-41%, and McCain leading Edwards by a smaller margin, 47%-43%. Edwards does hold a significant lead over GOP Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, 51%-34%. Of course, there are plenty of reasons to think that these numbers don't mean a thing in the real world.

In his latest column, Bob Novak gives John McCain a heavy dose of strong advice: seriously compete in Iowa, or fade away. Novak points out that Virginia Senator George Allen's defeat was bad news for McCain, because Allen's presence in the primaries would have splintered the conservative vote between him and Mitt Romney, who will now be able to solidify support on the right.

Novak opines that McCain can't afford to repeat his performance in 2000, when he essentially ceded the state. "If McCain were to skip Iowa and then lose to, or narrowly defeat, Romney in New Hampshire," Novak writes, "he would then risk being shut out through the Southern states' presidential primaries, nearly putting him out of contention." Novak points to McCain's recent hiring of Iowan GOP strategist Terry Nelson — one of the consultants behind the "Harold, Call Me" ad in Tennessee — as evidence that McCain is serious about competing in Iowa this time around.

"I think that I am going to hide under this desk if both of them ran."

— Outgoing DCCC chairman Rahm Emanuel, speaking to Chicago Sun-Times columnist Lynn Sweet about what he'll do if Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both run for President

Here's a bit more for you on Mitt Romney's budding Presidential run. Romney is positioning himself as the true conservative alternative to Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. But uh-oh -- it turns out that there's some very troubling evidence of social liberalism lurking in his past:

Where Romney may take some heat, especially from the social conservatives who are instrumental in early primary voting, is over his positions on same-sex marriage and abortion.

Romney ran as a moderate during his 2002 gubernatorial campaign. Despite saying he personally opposed abortion, he not only pledged to leave the state's abortion laws intact, but noted his mother, Lenore, ran for U.S. Senate in 1970 as a supporter of abortion rights.

He now stresses his opposition to abortion in speeches across the country.

In 2002, Romney's supporters also handed out fliers with well wishes from him and his running mate during Boston's annual Gay Pride Parade. He was endorsed by the Log Cabin Republicans, a group of gay party activists. In 2003, he signed a proclamation hailing a gay youth parade.

So Romney's mom ran for office as a pro-choice candidate 36 years ago, and Romney himself said some friendly things to gays a couple of times. How will he ever overcome such glaring liabilities?

Now that the news has broken that Rudy Giuliani filed his Presidential paperwork with the FEC, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is rushing out word that he will be filing his paperwork for a Presidential run, too. A top Romney adviser tells the Associated Press that he'll be setting up some sort of Presidential committee in mid-December in order to be ready to start raking in the bucks at the start of the new year. As Election Central reported yesterday, Romney, who's positioning himself as the genuine conservative alternative to Giuliani and John McCain, has already fired the opening shot of the Presidential race, blasting McCain's position on abortion as "disingenuous."

GOP Rep. "Mean Jean" Schmidt -- the woman whose claim to fame is that she called antiwar John Murtha a "coward" on the House floor -- has hung on to win reelection after facing a fierce challenge from Dem Victoria Wulsin. The Associated Press reports that additional ballot counts have expanded Schmidt's lead to 3,200 votes. With the vote counting not quite complete, Wulsin has still refused to concede, but as the AP notes, in order to prevail, "Wulsin would have to win remaining votes by more than a 2-to-1 ratio."

Former Senator John Edwards has chosen an interesting venue to promote his new book: The state of Iowa. The Des Moines Register reports that Edwards is scheduled to sign copies of his book, “Home: The Blueprints of Our Lives”, on Nov. 29 at a Barnes & Noble in West Des Moines. Edwards has visited Iowa, home of the all-important Presidential caucuses, several times since losing as the 2004 veep candidate. On The Daily Show recently, Edwards promised an "exciting" announcement over the "next few weeks." Presumably he wasn't referring to the upcoming Barnes & Noble appearance.

GOP Rep. Heather Wilson has succeeded in hanging on to her seat in the face of a fierce challenge from Dem Patricia Madrid. CQ Politics reports that Madrid conceded defeat today after the count of ballots showed her lagging behind Wilson by all of 879 votes. Wilson's win means there are six House races which remain undecided. Two of them -- in Louisiana's 2nd District and in Texas' 23rd District -- will be resolved by runoffs in December.

In what may be the first intra-party volley of the 2008 GOP presidential primaries, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is blasting Arizona Senator John McCain for having a "disingenuous" position on same-sex marriage. “Look, if somebody says they’re in favor of gay marriage, I respect that view," Romney said in an interview with the Washington Examiner. "If someone says — like I do — that I oppose same–sex marriage, I respect that view. But those who try and pretend to have it both ways, I find it to be disingenuous.”

Romney, who is seeking to cast himself as well to the right of both McCain and potential candidate Rudy Giuliani in preparation for the GOP primaries, was referring to what he sees as McCain's contradictory postition on the issue. On Sunday McCain told ABC News that he believes "that the issue of gay marriage should be decided by the states," but then also added that "gay marriage should not be legal." We're off and running.

Why is Senator Sam Brownback — a staunch conservative who strongly favors abstinence education plus the teaching of intelligent design — getting, of all things, an AIDS test with Senator Barack Obama? The Associated Press reports that Brownback "will take the test Dec. 1 as part of a two-day `Global AIDS Summit,'" in order to "reduce stigma around the test and publicize its value."

But Election Central couldn't help but notice that the announcement of the test came around the same time that Brownback announced he'd decide next month whether to run for President, which he disclosed today. The AIDS test alongside Obama will allow him to soften his image and present himself as a "compassionate conservative" willing to work with Senators across the aisle on key issues. Or, as Brownback himself put it, "I think you are seeing the beginning of a great coming together on the left and right dealing with Africa."

Iowa Dem Governor Tom Vilsack is set to kick off a five-state tour of key battleground states, CNN is reporting. "Beginning November 30, Vilsack will rally in Iowa before heading to New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and South Carolina," CNN says. "Vilasck will wrap-up his multi-state tour in Washington, DC on December, 4th." Vilsack is the only 2008 candidate to officially declare his candidacy.

From Fox News:

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney plans to announce his decision to join the growing pool of 2008 White House contenders in early January.

But operations around Romney, including a private event on Saturday night that raised $9 million for his Commonwealth PAC, sure look headed in that direction...

Romney, 59, has also assembled some key GOP advisers and fundraisers. They include former Bush Justice Department spokeswoman and GOP adviser Barbara Comstock, longtime Gov. Jeb Bush aide Sally Bradshaw and former New York Rep. Rick Lazio. Alex Castellanos, one of the most sought-after GOP advertising men in the country, and Alex Gage, the Bush re-election team's voter microtargeting specialist, are signed on as well.

Romney is also acknowledging that his being a Mormon could complicate any Presidential bid. More after the jump.

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Just in from CNN:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, told CNN Monday he is not sure when he will decide on a White House run but expressed confidence that the American people are ready to elect an African-American as their leader.

"I think the American people at their core are a decent people," the Senate's lone African-American member told CNN's Don Lemon. "I think we still have prejudice in our midst, but I think the vast majority of Americans are willing to judge people on the basis of, you know, their ideas and their character."

Earlier today Obama called for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq to begin in 2007. Obama has suddenly cranked up his visibility big time -- increasing the pressure on other oft-talked-about potential Dem candidates like Hillary Clinton and John Edwards to make some kind of move to stir new rounds of speculation about themselves. We'll be hearing 2008-related hints from them of one kind or another any day now.

Vern Buchanan might have been certified as the winner in this race, but it's far from over. Democratic candidate Christine Jennings is already contesting the results, citing reports of malfunctioning voting machines, and if Jennings refuses to concede and shows enough evidence of malfunctions, the race could be decided...in the House itself.

A new article in Roll Call spells it out (paid subscription): Election watchers around the country think that the race could end up before a House committee — the House Administration Committee, which oversees Federal elections. If so, the full House, which in the end is responsible for seating new members, could potentially vote on which of the two candidates to seat, thus deciding the race's outcome itself — or could call for a new recount, or even declare the seat vacant and mandate a new election. Right now, of course, the House is still GOP-controlled, but by the time of this vote it could be in the hands of Dems — meaning Jennings could conceivably pull off a win after all.

The change in House majority and the upcoming TX-23 runoff between GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla and former Dem Rep. Ciro Rodriguez is turning out to be an opportunity for Rep. Henry Cuellar, who first unseated Rodriguez in the 2004 Democratic primary. A recent article in the San Antonio News-Express explored the efforts of Cuellar to mend any still-broken fences with the incoming majority, including his having raised over $150,000 for the DCCC and indvidual House candidates. Colin Strother, a campaign spokesman for Ceullar, told Election Central that Cuellar and Rodriguez have recently spoken on the phone, and that "the past is the past" between them. Strother told EC that Cuellar has endorsed Rodriguez and is open to campaigning for him in the runoff, but hasn't yet been asked. It would probably be a good idea for Cuellar — who was endorsed by the right-wing Club For Growth in a rematch with Rodriguez earlier this year — to do as much as possible on Rodriguez's behalf in order to patch up any lingering mistrust against himself in the next Congress.

Will the new Democratic-controlled House overturn the military's "Don't ask, don't tell" policy towards homosexuals in the military? According to the Boston Globe, Massachusetts Dem Reps. Barney Frank and Martin Meehan plan to hold hearings come January with the eventual goal of overturning it. The Globe observes that the move could send Dems into a "political minefield," noting that Bill Clinton's early Presidency was badly damaged by a push for openly gay men and women to serve.

Meehan introduced the bill last year with 121 co-sponsors, but the GOP majority blocked hearings. Meehan's bill was backed by Nancy Pelosi — who will now be House Speaker. It will be interesting to see how she plays it this time around, when she's both under intense scrutiny and actually in a position to help make such a thing happen.

A new Rasmussen poll has some bad news for Mitt Romney as he heads into an expected run for the White House: 43% of Americans say they wouldn't consider voting for a Mormon for President. Only 38% say they would consider voting for such a candidate. The number is even worse for him with Evangelical Christians, a key social-conservative GOP demographic: A full 53% of them would vote against a Mormon candidate. Still, it could be worse for Romney; the absolute least popular religious affiliations are to be Muslim or atheist, the poll finds. Rasmussen finds that 61% say they would never consider voting for a Muslim Presidential candidate; 60%, meanwhile, would never pull the lever for an atheist.

GOP Rep. Jim Walsh, who narrowly prevailed over Dem challenger Dan Maffei to hang on to his seat in New York's 25th District, has a message for voters who didn't cast their ballots for him: He's "disappointed" in them. In an interview with the Syracuse Post-Standard, Walsh complained that he was upset because he didn't carry Syracuse, even though it's his home town:

"I was very disappointed in the people of the city," Walsh said. "I've worked harder in the city of Syracuse than I have in any other part of the district. I have given my heart and soul to that city. And I'll continue to do that, but I've got a little hole in my heart."

Note to Walsh: You serve at the pleasure of the voters. If they weren't as impressed with your performance as you are, this is an indication of failure on your part -- not theirs.

Marc Rotterman, a southern political operative who's been a key adviser to Jesse Helms, is bucking the conventional wisdom which holds that Rudy Giuliani is too socially liberal to survive the 2008 GOP presidential primary. Here's what Rotterman, who's also the treasurer of the American Conservative Union, had to say in an interview with The Politicker blog:

"You got to put him in the top tier going into the game," said Rotterman. "I think it's very serious."

"I think after the recent elections, the Republican Party is looking for a leader who is fiscally conservative, who has the ability to pull people together and who can communicate correctly with the American people."

When asked how Rudy was able to attract big Texas donors, Rotterman said that they were responding in particular to his success in implimenting a fiscally conservative agenda in New York.

"I think spending is going to be a key issue in 2008, in scope and size of government."

The basic point here is that Rotterman is suggesting that socially conservative voters may overlook Rudy's stances on issues like gay marriage and abortion because he can "pull people together" and "communicate correctly" -- code words for "win." But as noted below, Terence Jeffrey, the editor of the conservative mag Human Events, dug up some past Rudy quotes on these issues and concluded he has "no chance" of winning the nomination.

In yet another sign that John McCain is working to win over social and religious leaders he disdained when he was playing the role of "moderate" Presidential candidate in 2000, McCain has now turned for campaign help to a top official from Liberty University, whose chancellor is the Rev. Jerry Falwell. The Associated Press reports that Liberty debate coach Brett O'Donnell has signed on as an adviser for McCain's presidential exploratory committee.

Though Falwell tells the AP that the hire shouldn't be construed as an endorsement, it's clear that the move is intended to help McCain craft a message that will better appeal to the GOP's Falwell wing. Think Progress' Judd Legum, who first noted the hiring yesterday, also reminds readers that McCain's hire of the Liberty University official comes six years after McCain described Falwell as an "agent of intolerance" in 2000 while running for President.