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10 House Races Still Undecided

The current Dem pickup stands at 28 House seats, with no losses and 10 races still undecided. Here's where they are now:


Dem-Leaning:

CT-02: Dem challenger Joe Courtney has declared victory with an 167-vote edge, but the miniscule margin automatically triggers a recount. The 167-vote margin includes absentee and military ballots, but not provisional ballots, which need to be verified before being counted. The recount must be completed by midnight next Wednesday.

GA-12: Incumbent Dem John Barrow leads by less than 1,000 votes, with a recount being likely. Barrow has declared victory. If Dems hold this seat, they will have completely shut out the GOP on House, Senate and governorship pick-ups.

Republican-Leaning:

FL-13: The race for Katherine Harris's open seat is potentially going to the courts. Dem Christine Jennings trails by less than 400 votes, with reports of voting-machine problems.

NC-08: Down by 346 votes, Dem Larry Kissell is calling for a recount in his race against GOP Rep. Robin Hayes, who has already declared victory. Provisional ballots won't be counted until Nov. 17, and the official result will not be certified until Nov. 28. In North Carolina, recounts have traditionally favored the candidate who leads going in.

NM-02: GOP Rep. Heather Wilson leads by 1,395 votes, with provisional and absentee ballots yet to be counted.

OH-02: GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt has declared victory, but Dem Victoria Wulsin is waiting for all provisional ballots to be counted before conceding. Though a Wulsin victory is still a possibility, she seems to be facing a statistical uphill battle.

OH-15: With a lead of 2,835 votes GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce has declared victory, but Dem opponent Mary Jo Kilroy will not concede until some 20,000 uncounted absentee and provisional ballots are tallied, a sum which she feels could tilt the election towards her. Pryce has also announced she will not seek re-election for Chair of the House Republican Conference if she wins.

WA-08: GOP Rep. David Reichert holds a two-point lead over Dem Darcy Burner with three-fifths of the district's ballots now counted. If the final vote count ends with the candidates a half a percentage point or less apart, state law requires a recount.

WY-AL: Dem Gary Trauner, trailing Rep. Barbara Cubin by 970 votes, might request a recount after canvassing is completed. However, his current deficit is a few dozen votes larger than the margin that would provide for a state-paid recount. Cubin has declared victory.

Runoff:

TX-23: GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla fell short of 50 percent, and faces a runoff with former Dem Rep. Ciro Rodriguez


48 Comments

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Courtney declares victory in 2nd District, recount triggered
by News Channel 8's Tina Detelj

(Hartford-WTNH, Nov. 8, 2006 Updated 6:00 PM) _ A mandatory recount is underway in a race that may have helped upset the balance of power in Washington.

Right now the numbers show Republican Congressman Rob Simmons is out and Democratic Challenger Joe Courtney is in with just 167 votes separating them.


Joe Courtney walked with his wife and two children up to the podium to tell his supporters what they have wanted to hear since last night.

Joe Courtney, (D) Congressional Candidate, says,"Today at two o'clock the secretary of state announced the official tally."

That official tally puts Courtney ahead of Congressman Rob Simmons by 167 votes and even though that triggers an automatic recount he is confident the win will stand.

Courtney says,""We are up we have an official tally from the town clerks who worked very hard into the night submitted those with official certifications from each town and that's a number that's there that's real."

Rob Simmons is not throwing in the towel just yet. With his wife, Heidi, and supporters looking on he said he will let the automatic recount determine this race.

Rep. Rob Simmons says,"Anything can happen we have 65 towns our numbers show 167 votes that factors out to three votes a town that can cut either way but if you look at the numbers that way. That's an exceeding close race."

Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz says the race easily meets the standard for an automatic recount. Such a recount is triggered when the margin of victory is less than half of one percent and is no more than two-thousand votes.

Towns in the district have a week to conduct the recount

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Would that the race in NM-2 were close, though I have a feeling that it might open up in 2008. I have a hard time believing Wilson was able to close the gap in NM-1. It would make my day if Madrid joins the freshman class of 110.

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Charlie Cook is still projecting 234 Dem seats, which would be a 31 or 32 seat pickup, depending on where you started counting from...

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JD Hayworth has not yet conceded his race to Harry Mitchell, and there are thousands of early ballots and provisional ballots yet to be counted.

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Nitpick: LA-2 still doesn't have a winner. Mind you, it will be one of the 2 Dems in the runoff (and I wouldn't put any money on William "Freezer Burn" Jefferson), but it belongs on any "undecided" list.

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The LA-2 runoff won't affect the Dem seat count...

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Which, it would seem, is why I remarked

Mind you, it will be one of the 2 Dems in the runoff

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Make that 11 races ... Eric Massa (NY-29) is challenging the results of that race. See the Elmira Star Gazette.

Alan

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Watch the FL13 race closely...there was an 18,000 UNDERVOTE (!!) in Sarasota. The local and state election officials are blaming it not on their defective electronic voting machines (Jennings held a press conference on election AM to highlight problems) but on voters choosing not to vote in a "nasty" race!! Jennings was ahead in every poll right up to election weekend. Election-Law blog thinks the court might order another election...but there's even a juicier possibility: Congress deciding. I'm sure a Democratic Congress would be interested in investigating the nonsense that occured in Katherine Harris' old district (and hometown) with the assistance of Jeb's pals at the Secretary of State's office...I think this will develop into a major story as the month wears on.

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Is there any chance of Bonilla losing the run-off?

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LA-2 is also still undecided. Rep William "bribe money in the freezer" Jefferson is in a runoff with LA Democratic party endorsed candidate Karen Carter. Both candidates are Democratic, so the seat will not change parties.

However, it might be better for the Democratic party's image if an apparently corrupt congressman was not re-elected. I hope Louisiana voters will elect Carter and save Jefferson the trouble of resigning.

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NY-19 is technically undecided as well. Sue Kelly has decided that she wants a recount to prove that she lost (narrowly, true, but see: horseshoes, hand grenades) to John Hall (D-Guilty of crimes against rock and roll).

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Just getting the numbers straight, since the Jefferson seat will remain dem that means a sure 230 to which will probably be added at least the
Georgia seat. So Pelosi seems to be guaranteeed
231 with one other highly likely.

A total of 232 means it would take at least
15 blue dog defections to lose a vote. That seems like a pretty good margin

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Henry Bonilla COULD lose in TX-23, but we need help! The way the court set the rules, it was a Democratic primary v Henry... or "henry and the 7 dwarves" as we called it.

IF the Ds can unite behind Ciro AND still get the 50% their 6 candidates (the 7th was an independent) received there is a good chance. Better yet would be money for advertising and media... we're a strange area, stretching from San Antonio to El Paso. My county has no TV, and only English-language weekly newspapers. There is ONE Spanish-language weekly in Presidio, but otherwise, it's gonna be fliers and door to door campaigning.

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Is Florida already, or trying to become, the leading State of Republican Iniquity? LOL I'm just playing with sounds and words here. There are plenty of contenders for that title! The Republicans are not going to give up the home state of some of the Bush clan easily and now they've got still another screw-up in Harris' county to fool around with. 'Spose they'll try to get this one up to the Supreme Court, too?

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&
Hey, richmx2, thanks for the info. Can you post a link to Ciro's website, and/or any info you have on his financial situation. I could contribute a small amount, and I bet a lot of others in the "liberal blogosphere" would be willing to chip in. Seems like a win-able seat, still in play.

When will the runoff election be held?

-- ARG

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