Twenty-Nine House Races Have Shifted For Dems During Foleygate
Okay, so Election Central has now tallied up the big-picture impact that the two-week period since Foleygate broke has had on the nation's few-dozen competitive House races. We did this by counting up all the House races which had their ratings changed by CQ Politics and Cook Political Report since Foleygate hit the news on Sept. 29. We chose CQ and Cook because they both neatly date their ratings changes. Our grand total: 29 races have shifted favorably for Dems since the Foley scandal first hit. Only one has shifted in favor of the GOP. View our full list after the jump.
Here's Election Central's full list of ratings changes since the start of Foleygate:
Sept. 29: In FL-16, CQ Politcs shifts its rating of the race from "Safe Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."Oct. 2: In CO-05, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored."
Oct. 3: In CA-11, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Republican Favored" to "Lean Republican."
Oct. 3: In FL-16 again, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic."
Oct. 4: In VA-10, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored."
Oct. 4: In CA-04, CQ Politics shifts their rating of the race from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored."
Oct. 4: In NC-11, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."
Oct. 5: In NJ-07, CQ Poliitcs shifts its rating of the race from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican."
Oct. 5: In FL-22, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."
Oct. 6: In CA-04, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."
Oct. 6: In CA-11, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."
Oct. 6: In CO-04, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."
Oct. 6: In FL-13, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up."
Oct. 6: In KY-02 Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican."
Oct. 6: In MN-06, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up."
Oct. 6: In NV-02, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."
Oct. 6: In NY-26, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Solid Republican" to "Toss Up."
Oct. 6: In NC-08, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican."
Oct. 6: In PA-04, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican."
Oct. 6: In PA-07, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up."
Oct. 6: In PA-10, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up."
Oct. 6: In WA-08, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up."
Oct. 6: In WI-08, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up."
Oct. 9: In PA-10, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."
Oct. 9: In NY-26, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Leans Republican" to "Leans Democratic."
Oct. 9: In FL-13, CQ Poliitcs shifts its rating of the race from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican."
Oct. 9: In OH-13, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Leans Democratic" to "Democrat Favored."
Oct. 9: In NY-19, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican."
Oct. 10: In NJ-05, CQ politics shifts its rating of the race from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored."
Oct. 10: In OH-06, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "No Clear Favorite" to "Democrat Favored."
Oct. 10: In OH-02, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Safe Republican" to "Republican Favored."
Oct. 11: In CO-05, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican."
Oct. 11: In CO-07, Cook Political Report shifts its rating of the race from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democratic".
Oct. 11: In ON-05, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Safe Democratic" to "Democrat Favored."
Oct. 11: In WA-08, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."
Oct. 12: In IN-02, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."
Oct. 12: In IN-08, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic."
Oct. 12: In NY-20, CQ Politics shifts its rating of the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."
The publication of David Kuo's tell-all about the Office of Faith-Based Intiatives may give more legs to the Foley scandal, as it will emphasize the hypocrisy of the WH. The book shows Rove's office deriding the evangelical leaders as "the nuts." Between that and "The List" perhaps evangelicals and social conservatives will just stay home. It will be hard for Dobson, et al, to deny the book's inside tales since the writer was #2 at the agency and has impeccable conservative credentials. Kuo's boss also resigned and said only that politics drove everything.
There may be election law violation in using the Office to politick, by setting up roundtable sessions in targeted districts. Certainly the Office was completely ineffective in moving any new money into faith-based groups.
I also take the building momentum in the Dow as a good omen. I remember it began to slip before the 2000 election.
I'm particularly pleased that Tammy Duckworth may be opening a lead away from Roskam in IL-06.
October 12, 2006 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here they come!!!! I live in NY-26. We were push-polled tonight by the Reynolds campaign - an "out of area" number. First time ever for this household. There was a lot of planting negative vignettes over Jack Davis not paying his property taxes on time. Other stuff about his historical and current positions on free trade and his company's purchase of off-shore components. Frankly, pretty lame stuff with complex story lines. There was nothing that could be remotely classified as a "values" matter - such as putting the interests of the party ahead of the welfare of children. The wife took the call and she cannot rival my deviousness. So she tells me that after a while, she told the operator that she was voting for Davis regardless. The operator apologised and said, without exaggeration, "Hey I don't really care. I don't even live in New York. So I guess you can tell who is paying me." Nice. Pity that comment wasn't recorded for posterity. The lesson is that the tsunami of money is rolling your way - if you are registered in one of the growing number of marginal districts, that is. Be wary of the wounded animal.
October 12, 2006 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink