Rothenberg: 30 Races Now Seen As Toss-Ups
Nonpartisan analyist Stuart Rothenberg's latest race rankings are just out, and he's rated a staggering 30 House races as toss-ups -- and all but four of them are Republican-held seats. He rates 15 races as "pure" toss-ups, 12 as toss-ups that "tilt Democratic," and only three as toss-ups that "tilt Republican." His prediction for the House: "Democratic gain of 18-25 seats, though we think that a significantly larger Democratic gain, in excess of 30 seats, is quite possible." And his prediction for the Senate: "Democratic gains of 4-7 seats." View his list of House toss-ups after the jump.
Rothenberg's latest House toss-ups:
PURE TOSS-UP (15 R, 0 D)CT 2 (Simmons, R)
CT 4 (Shays, R)
CT 5 (Johnson, R)
FL13 (Open; Harris, R)
FL 22 (Shaw, R)
IL 6 (Open; Hyde, R)
KY 4 (Davis, R)
MN 6 (Open; Kennedy, R)
NM 1 (Wilson, R)
NC 11 (Taylor, R)
NY 26 (Reynolds, R)
OH 1 (Chabot, R)
PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
VA 2 (Drake, R)
WI 8 (Open; Green, R)TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (3 R, 0 D)
NV 3 (Porter, R)
PA 8 (Fitzpatrick, R)
WA 8 (Reichert, R)TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (8 R, 4 D)
FL 16 (Open; Foley, R)
GA 8 (Marshall, D)
GA 12 (Barrow, D)
IL 8 (Bean, D)
IN 9 (Sodrel, R)
IA 3 (Boswell, D)
NY 24 (Open; Boehlert, R)
OH 15 (Pryce, R)
OH 18 (Open; Ney, R)
PA 7 (Weldon, R)
PA 10 (Sherwood, R)
TX 22 (Open; DeLay, R)
I'm volunteering for Duckworth in IL-06. We're getting inunudated with unremitting tv commercials on the 3 network local nightly newscasts and now half an hour later the national newscasts, At least 3 per hour accusing her of wanting to give social security and welfare to illegal aliens on each channel. I phonebank thru them and half the time I get hangups, na's and people who stay on the line long enough to tell me they won't vote for anybody who wants to help illegal aliens. This has been going on for weeks.
Duckworth has great commercials in the can countering these attacks starring Obama. I've seen them 3 times since Monday. Twice midmorining when they hardly count. She needs money to run them. Bill Clinton is coming into town for a $500 a plate fundraiser on Monday. She'll get 32% of that. Too little too late I'm afraid. She's being defined to the uninformed drop offs she needs who at best will stay home confused if they finally see the Obama ads. I'm begging you if you have any spare change send it to Tammy Duckworth's campaign. She needs to saturate the airwaves with her counter ads and she needs to do it now. Today.
www.duckworthforcongress.com
October 21, 2006 12:03 AM | Reply | Permalink