Polls: Key Senate Races Too Close To Call
CNN just released a batch of polls of key Senate races -- and they show that the battle for the Senate is too close to call. Assuming Dems knock off trailing GOP incumbent Senators in Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Rhode Island, Dems then need to pick up two more seats to win the Senate. If they hold New Jersey -- where the CNN poll shows Dem Robert Menendez up 51%-44% over GOPer Tom Kean, Jr. -- then then need to win two out of three of the closer contests in Virginia, Tennessee and Missouri, and CNN finds all to be extremely tight. In Virginia, Dem Jim Webb is leading Senator George Allen, 50%-46%; in Missouri, Senator Jim Talent and Dem Claire McCaskill are deadlocked at 49%; and among likely voters in Tennessee, GOPer Bob Corker is ahead of Dem Harold Ford, Jr., 52%-44% -- though among registered voters Corker is leading only 47%-45%, which is within the poll's margin of error. Tight, tight, tight.
What's with Zogby's OH-Sen poll numbers? Brown has had a double digit lead for a while, and all the sudden DeWine closes the gap to two percentage points? Me thinks not.
October 31, 2006 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
It might be a Zogby 'Interactive' Poll.
October 31, 2006 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
In the CNN Poll, Brown is up 54-43.
In Missouri and Tennessee, the key is turnout, turnout, turnout! McCaskill has a lead among registered voters but is deadlocked among likely voters. That means we've got to convince more of the registered voters who favor her to VOTE!
October 31, 2006 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I apologize in advance for the pessimistic post.
I think any of the really close races will be lost to Republicans. Why am I so pessimistic? The polls, most likely, accurately reflect voter intent. However, if any of the states are permitted to implement the type of voter suppression tactics used in Ohio and Florida in 2000 and 2004, a few percentage points can be easily lost. Thus, to truly win seats in states that have Republican Secretaries of State, Governors, or Republican majority supreme court memebers, Dems must have a significant lead to overcome the shinangigans.
Too many posts at TPM and TPM cafe reflect an attitude that the voting process is not being tampered with and the vote will reflect what the polls show. This was not true in 2000 or 2004. And we are all aware that the research shows there being real attempts by republicans to suppress the vote in just about every state. See the articles by Robert Kennedy Jr. in Rolling Stone, the Laphim article in Harpers, and I think Jimmy Carter even commented on the fiasco of 2004.
October 31, 2006 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby has showed Ohio tighter througout. For the last three "polls'" Brown's lead has been less than five points.
I think the Senate is coming down to Missouri.
October 31, 2006 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
The reason the NRC has spent hundreds of millions on negative advertizing is to suppress the vote. Despite all the money it looks like this election is going to be close, close, close.
If Democrats work hard to get out the vote they could easily run away with this election.
Folks stop all the poll watching now. Start writing lists of your friends and neighbors who need help getting to the polls. If you don't know anybody call your local candidate and ask if they have such a list.
It is old fashioned, and I doubt the air warriors camped in their beltway bunkers would approve, but between now and next Tueseday we are in a ground war. Get out the vote. Write letters to the editor telling everybody to ignore the negative advertizing. Drag people to the polls if you have too. Get out the vote and Democrats will win. Stay home and its two more years of this nonsense.
Ron Byers
October 31, 2006 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am sorry, but your attitude sucks. Cheating has gone on for hundreds of years. I could tell you stories about how some Democrats won the White House. If the election is close it makes a difference. If it isn't close, it doesn't. If you want to beat the bastards, get out the vote. If you want to say "woe is me" and cry in your beer, do it on your own damn time.
Ron Byers
October 31, 2006 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am working to get out the vote! Its just I am feeling that pull toward being enthusiastic about the Dem prospects, and wanted to temper that with a little dose of reality. If its close in the polls, the last couple of elections tell me that Dems will probably lose, despite our efforts to get out the vote.
And I am well aware of the cheating that has gone on by both parties for the last 200 years. Its not pretty, but knowing it has occurred, makes more pessemistic not less.
I'll try to take some happy pills for the next week or so to improve the attitude. Thanks for the kick in the pants.
October 31, 2006 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just remember, that convincing us all that the vote is rigged beyond saving can itself be a voter suppression technique.
How many people might not go vote because they think it doesn't matter because they've heard that "the fix is in?"
In fact, if there is an attempt to rig this election, then we need people to get out and vote even more because the more people voting, the harder it will be for them to pull it off without getting caught.
Flood the zone!!
October 31, 2006 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely. Vote rigging only works when the vote is close. If it is too obvious, people go to jail.
Ron Byers
October 31, 2006 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Michael Low
Zogby and his outliers again--Brown is up only 1.4% in Ohio. This may have tightened
some as stray Republicans come home, but I think Brown hangs on to 6-8% victory. He's always had this one closer in the last three polls, with the margin less than 5%.
It should come down to Missouri, unless the NRA's fishwrap works in Montana.
October 31, 2006 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink