CQ Politics has just changed the rating for the House race between GOPer Don Sherwood and Dem Chris Carney from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite":

At the outset of the 2006 midterm campaign cycle, it would have been difficult to identify a more politically “safe” member than Pennsylvania Rep. Don Sherwood...Now it is difficult to find many House members who are more politically vulnerable...

Recent polling data indicate that a sizable portion of the district’s usually ample Republican electorate is shunning Sherwood — and that Carney may be emerging as the candidate to beat. An independent survey released Oct. 3...found that just 60 percent of self-identified Republicans are backing Sherwood, compared to 26 percent who are supporting Carney, who also has a big lead among self-identified independent voters...

The race could hinge on whether Sherwood, in the final four weeks of the campaign, can prevail upon Republicans who are disgusted by his affair to stick with him on policy grounds. Carney, meanwhile, will need to parry attacks from Republicans that he is too liberal for the district.

CQ's full analysis is here. Carney's most recent ad highlighting Sherwood's affair and "family values" problem (can anyone say Foleygate?) is here.