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OH-SEN: Source: RNC Hasn't Paid For Most Remaining DeWine Air Time

Okay, so I just spoke with a Democratic strategist who is in regular contact with the local Ohio networks, and he's shed some more light on the question of how much the national GOP will -- or won't -- spend to save sinking GOP Senator Mike DeWine. Ever since the New York Times reported that the national party was divesting in the race after concluding that Dem Sherrod Brown is on track to victory, both the NRSC and the RNC have denied that they were pulling out. But our source gave us some new info which suggests the GOP may be preparing to scale back in Ohio big time. He tells us the NRSC has no more air time reserved, and that the RNC has only paid for a fraction of its planned ad expenditure, leaving room to shift most RNC resources alloted to ads in Ohio to other races. More after the jump.

Let's start with the National Republican Senatorial Committee. It has vigorously protested the notion that it was pulling out of the race completely, claiming that NRSC ads are continuing. But our source says the networks are saying that the NRSC has reserved exactly zero air time between now and election day.

"As of now, they're done," the source says. "They can always add money, but right now, they're off the air. They got nothing."

What about the Republican National Committee? After the Times story came out, RNC chair Ken Mehlman contradicted the story, saying: "From this point forward, we will spend millions more on turnout and millions more on message."

Our source says that networks are saying that the RNC has indeed reserved some $2.4 million in air time between now and election day. But here's the rub: The source adds that networks are reporting that only around $700,000 of that time has been actually paid for by the RNC. That number is supported by this filing today. And that $700,000, the source says, actually was a scaling back what the RNC had initially reserved on the networks, which was a little more than $900,000.

More to the point, the RNC hasn't yet paid the roughly $1.7 million for the time it's booked for the last two weeks, the source says.

That means that the RNC, while claiming it "will spend millions," has carefully left itself the option of redeploying most of the money. And that redeployement, of course, will only grow more likely if new polls come out with results similar to the ones in today's Quinnipiac poll, which showed Brown leading DeWine by 12 points.

An NRSC spokesman didn't immediately return an email for comment. And RNC spokesman Aaron McLear declined to discuss specifics. "Those are things we aren't giving out," McLear told Election Central. "I can point you to what our chairman [Ken Mehlman] said yesterday, which was that...there are millions more to spend in the coming three weeks both on turnout and on message."

Update: Stuart Rothenberg reports today that the RNC is "about to begin" a two-week buy that will cost in excess of $1 million. Our source says, however, that the networks are saying that only $700,000 has actually been paid out.

The question, though, is whether the RNC will actually end up spending that money in Ohio. It hasn't committed the cash as of now.


6 Comments

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Maybe the Republicans are simply shifting into a new, more vicious gear and letting the Swift Boaters take over. Oh, what am I thinking of; It's illegal to coordinate between party orgs and 527s. The R's would never do something illegal, would they?

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Is it really necessary to advertise if your people are the ones overseeing the mechanics of the election, and you have no compunctions about using that to your advantage? :-P

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That's not the question ... they do need to make the race close enough for vote suppression and the odd dozen dirty counties to steal.

If the attack ads just aren't working, then there is no reason why more attack ads will work any better. And if that is throwing good money after bad, the questiom becomes, how else can the money be spent to bring the race close enough to steal?

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From what I've been reading, Secretary of State Blackwell has things very much in hand in Ohio. A big purge of the voter rolls has just been completed on Oct. 1, and all those swarming liberals will simply be unable to vote. It will be a GOP sweep in Ohio, why even bother spending all that money on television advertising?

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If that is their strategy to steal the election ... like I said above, they need to get it close enough to steal.

Please help support Jennifer Brunner for Secretary of State and Barbara Sykes for State Auditor.

If those candidates push past the point where they can be stolen, then we get a double bang for our buck ... because we get to uncover the dirt from the Taft/Blackwell administration that has been successfully hidden so far. And that will turn one election with a Democratic swing into a series of setbacks for the Republican party in Ohio.

And remember the national significance ... the Democrats have sometimes gained the White House without Ohio, but the Republicans never have.

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Hey, Bruce.

I'm not convinced that the race has to be all that "close" for them to steal it. (But it sounds like you are there, so maybe you can convince me.)

I read that in 2005 Ohio had a set of election reform initiatives on the ballot, and that one of these was likely to win, 2-1, based on polling by the Columbus paper (the Post-Dispach, is it?). The paper has experience doing polls, and a pretty good track record for accuracy. The official "result" was the opposite. The measure lost, approx. 2-1.

So that gives me the feeling that it wouldn't be a big deal, from their point of view, to "steal" a Senate seat that was only a 12-point margin in pre-election polls. (I mean, that's practically a dead heat, compared to the previous example.)

I know I'm posting kind-of late on this thread, but if you stop by again, can you give any more insight as to how close a race has to be to be "close" in Ohio?

-- ARG

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