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NY-26: Poll: Reynolds Retakes Lead; Is Davis A Doomed Candidate?
There's a new poll out from SurveyUSA which says that NRCC chief Tom Reynolds — who'd slipped far behind in recent polls against Dem Jack Davis due to Foleygate — has retaken the lead, 49%-46%. As The Daily Politics notes, "Reynolds has gained 4 points and Davis has lost 4 points" since two weeks ago." Is Davis' lack of campaign skills to blame? A profile of Davis in today's Washington Post suggests the answer may be Yes. The 73-year old Davis says he doesn't "see the point" of "wasting time going around campaigning" and has no events scheduled. Meanwhile, Reynolds has tons of money and is fighting back — hard. Could Davis be blowing it? Read the Post piece and decide for yourself.
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Oh, no! That's horrible news!
October 19, 2006 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whats the point of being a candidate if he thinks its a waste of time campaigning?
Sure way to lose. Why should anyone vote for this guy unless of course the other guy is worse? In any event its not a great proposition for the voters.
October 19, 2006 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah yes, wonderful Buffalo, NY. How typical. Glad I left the area.
October 19, 2006 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
How the heck did the DCCC get this guy? He's a complete dud. And he doesn't want to campaign. Where is Rahm when you need him?
October 19, 2006 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't get too worked up over this one SUSA poll. Their polls usually have a margin of error of ±4%. (For this one it is ±5!) And the movement for both candidates was within that amount.
This race basically went from being a walk for Reynolds to a toss-up. It still is. Two other independent polls have shown Davis well ahead, including one with over 1,000 LV. Let's keep perspective: SUSA is good, but they do produce scattershot results, usually right up until their final polls.
October 19, 2006 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with Davidsfr, this poll along with polls in many of the races is within the margin of error. Survey USA along with Rasmussen is a "robo-poll" and the validity of the process is open to debate. If you average the last five polls, Davis is ahead.
Reynolds surge could be because the RNC has put more money into his campaign, Foleygate is not on the front page every morning, voters are taking a closer look at Davis or the poll is a fluke.
Davis should have lived in the 1800s when running a "front porch" campaign was still possible.
October 19, 2006 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reynolds was supposed to have an easy re-election - they don't appoint a loser as Chair of the NRCC. Davis was probably just a token candidate so Reynolds didn't run unopposed. And then Foleygate happened.
October 19, 2006 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
From waht I've read.. SUSA wasnt able to poll parts of the area due to phones being out (still) from the fall snowstorm.. so they severely underpolled areas that had polled strongly for Davis in prior polls.
I'd wait for the next set of polls before declaring Davis "endangered". One poll (with extenuating circumstances) does not a trend make.
October 20, 2006 12:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jack Davis is unique in that you know he is saying what he really thinks and he won't be bought. We need him badly because bad trade agreements are destroying the entire American middle class and he actually cares and shows it because he is still running his factory in NY versus China. I also think he's great because he embodies the fact that fiscal conservatives and fiscal progressives actually have much in common on trade, budget deficits and amazingly often on things like minimum wage increases.
He should get out and campaign some to be sure but yeah, he's not a warm fuzzy who is going to kiss babies and shake hands. He should at least go out and talk about economics, trade and how it has affected his district.
October 20, 2006 3:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly right:
Complete Survey USA write-up here.
October 20, 2006 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not worried about the poll, I'm worried about his nonchalance about campaigning! We need someone to hit Reynolds hard right now and score a huge knock-out.
Beating the head of the NRCC would be a little bit of consolation for what they did to Tom Daschle.
October 20, 2006 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's all well and good, but like you said, he has GOT to be out there hitting the pavement. He's getting this thing handed to him on a platter, and he needs to take full advantage of it.
Anyway, Rahm should lay the smack down. Get out there on the hustings or don't expect the DCCC to keep throwing money your way!
October 20, 2006 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink