In another sign that Foleygate is taking a heavy toll on NRCC chief Tom Reynolds, CQ has just changed its rating of the race from "Safe Republican" to "Leans Republican":

Davis seemed to be make significant headway in recent weeks, aided greatly by the difficult political atmosphere facing Republicans in general this year. A poll released last week by SurveyUSA had both candidates within the margin of error, with 45 percent of the respondents for Reynolds and 43 percent for Davis.

The owner of a local firm that manufactures silicon carbide heating elements which are used in high temperature electric furnaces, Davis has run a campaign focused on the same bread-and-butter issues as he did two years ago — focusing particularly on his opposition to free-trade pacts that he argues have cost American jobs.

CQ's full analysis here.