NY-20: CQ: Sweeney Race Now A Toss-Up
This one surprises us a bit, because the last couple of polls showed sizeable leads for GOP Rep John Sweeney, but CQ has now downgraded its rating of the race between Sweeney and Dem Kirsten Gillibrand from "Leans Republican" to "Toss up":
Gillibrand, an attorney and first-time candidate for public office, on Tuesday sent an open letter to Sweeney requesting he release information regarding police incidents earlier in his career, including an arrest for driving while intoxicated...It was another step in Gillibrand’s efforts to tie Sweeney to the “culture of corruption” tag with which Democrats have been trying to bedevil Republicans throughout the 2006 campaign. In fact, Gillibrand was an early entry, issuing accusations as early as last January that Sweeney was joining lobbyists on ski trips while ignoring the district’s problems.
The contest is front and center for the national Democratic Party, which sees the upstate 20th as an only mildly Republican-leaning district — President Bush took a modest 53 percent there in 2004 — that is ripe for a partisan takeover...The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee lists the race in its “Red to Blue” program — its roster of highly competitive races that the party hopes to switch from Republican red to Democratic blue on electoral maps — and has spent $110,000 on the race in recent weeks.
CQ's full roundup of New York races is here.
Sweeney has been a friend to causes normally associated with the Democrats....public housing, for one...for him to be in trouble is a mighty strong indicator of something big brewing in this election.
October 12, 2006 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in this district. Both candidates are lobbing every nasty thing they can find at the other. I believe the district was drawn to be too GOP friendly to allow an upset, but I'd like to be proven wrong.
What motivated the change in rating? I have seen no polling to indicate that the race has shifted.
Francis Vecellio
Kinderhook, NY
October 12, 2006 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man, what must the past five weeks have been like if you're working at CQ? Do they have some sort of drinking game where if you can figure out a race rating to change everybody has to buy you a shot?
October 12, 2006 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in the district as well. To describe this campaign as "dirty" is a gross understatement. I've had two Gillibrand signs stolen from the lawn in front of my house (no one has bothered the Sweeney sign in the neighbor's yard). I've been doing phone banking and canvassing for the Gillibrand campaign as a volunteer, and I'm hearing a lot of anti-Sweeney animus out from unaffiliated voters. It seems to me like quite a few people are looking for a reasonable alternative to a guy they really don't like.
October 13, 2006 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has anyone seen any recent polling data on this race?
October 14, 2006 8:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I live in this district as well. Gillibrand's ads have focused on Sweeney's record and rubber-stamp to Bush; his have been borderline slanderous and personal attacks. He is not as popular as he was 6 years ago. Local party officials tell me she just didn't have the large sums of money at the beginning needed to increase her visibility with lawn signs and other media. She really needs an infusion of cash big-time. She is a very forceful speaker but looks kind of mild and mousey; her voice talking about issues has not been heard enough on radio and television (no debates; Sweeney says she refuses to release tax returns and he won't debate her until she does). I'll say one good thing about Sweeney: he answers constituent mail within a reasonable time. Form letters sure, but at least he answers (unlike Hillary). Recently he responded to my husband's encouragement to pay more attention to global warming with a letter saying that scientists disagree about the reality of global warming. I wanted to send it back asking for specific citations please.
October 16, 2006 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink